Though much can change over the course of a long NHL season, the early-going of the 2019-20 has the potential to eventually exert upward pressure on the Hurricanes salary structure. Andrei Svechnikov has one more season after this one still at a bargain basement entry-level salary. Dougie Hamilton is also signed through the 2020-21 season. With those two players leading the team in scoring right now, the prices of their next contracts are escalating. Erik Haula who is set to be an unrestricted free agent next summer leads the team in goals.
For the first time in team history, the team will push up against the salary cap and be forced to make difficult decisions on who to keep and where to allocate a limited budget. The Canes have already shown a willingness to defer to reasonable math and part ways with good players whose next contract demands did not check out math-wise. In fact, the team has probably parted ways with as many higher-end players as it has chosen to re-sign with the departure list including Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk, Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm. No doubt the team will have additional next contracts to consider.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a quick look at the Carolina Hurricanes salary cap situation out a couple years.
2020-21 Carolina Hurricanes salary cap situation
With the team pressing up against the salary cap in 2019-20, one might assume that the Canes will be limited financially for the 2020-21 season. A deeper inspection of the situation suggests that that is not the case. The Canes have about $7 million come off the books without needing to replace a player between Patrick Marleau and the retained salary on Justin Faulk. And the only unrestricted free agents who must be re-signed or replaced are middle of the roster players Trevor van Riemsdyk, Joel Edmundson and Erik Haula. Haydn Fleury, Warren Foegele and Lucas Wallmark are worth watching for 2019-20 production. All three are restricted free agents who are making less than $1 million in 2019-20. So if any of them were to have a break out season, his next contract could escalate.
But in total, the Hurricanes should have almost $10 million potentially available to replace two defensemen who currently slot in the bottom pairing and a third line center. The team will probably not want to spend all of that budget because of what follows, but with the core locked up, next summer should be very workable.
2021-22 Carolina Hurricanes salary cap situation
The situation becomes more interesting and potentially challenging for the 2021-22 season. Before the 2021-22 season, Andrei Svechnikov must be re-signed and will obviously see a sizable increase from his standard $925,000 entry-level deal. In addition, Dougie Hamilton comes off his current $5.75 million contract. The team will get some relief with James Reimer coming off his $3.4 million deal and likely to be replaced for much less than that (Alex Nedeljkovic?). That summer also seems Petr Mrazek and Ryan Dzingel come off nice middle-ish type contracts at $3.125 and $3.375 million respectively. If Svechnikov continues his ascent and becomes another Aho, Marner, Rantanen, etc. type situation commanding $8-10 million, this will be when things get tough and the team is forced to make some difficult choices. The expansion draft could help if perhaps the team let go of someone like Gardiner to keep Hamilton. And the team does also FINALLY get back the $2.3 million cap hit for Alexander Semin.
My math says they save about $4.7 million on Reimer and Semin.
The team maybe breaks even on re-signing or replacing Mrazek and Dzingel with comparable players.
And then Svechnikov’s increase likely costs something between $4 and $8 million with Hamilton possibly also garnering a raise.
The key to making 2021-22 work will be not spending the limit for 2020-21 unless some of that spending includes contracts that end after the 2020-21 season.
Parting thoughts
When I look at the schedule for the team’s salary, I think the team has a nice two-year window during which it can keep the current roster almost completely intact if it wishes to. Then after that, the team has about another three years with the young core mostly locked up, but those latter three years could see the team have to make some changes before 2021-22 to fit Svechnikov’s next contract and possibly re-signing Hamilton.
An interesting side note is the state and actions of the team. I get the sense that the team is truly becoming one where many players do want to stay. That combined with the fact that the team has not been shy about trading even high-end players whose contract demands did not line up with what the team was willing to pay. That at least makes it possible for the Hurricanes to garner some discounts with players who do not want to risk being the next mid/late summer trade.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on the team’s salary cap situation in general?
2) Of the players set to come off of current contracts in the next couple years, who do you see as part of the core to be kept versus possibly expendable?
3) What is your guess for how things shake out with Hamilton Svechnikov in two years?
Go Canes!
Salary cap hell is where you want to be but also what you want to stay out of. I don’t think there is any way around that except to continue developing players or finding rebound candidates.
You can look at Chicago or LA but on the other hand the Crapitals did well with signing Ovi to his big contract.
That said I think if we can sign Haula to a TT level deal I would do that. Also Mrazek at about 5-6 mill halfway through this year if he shows more consistency.
There is also a chance to trade Staal after this year or maybe Ronnie will want him as Veteran when Seattle starts up.
I don’t think the team is overly concerned with the salary cap 2-3 years from now. I think they know who the key players are (or who could be key players down the road), and have a tentative plan to keep them in the fold salary-wise.
That said, a lot can and will happen between now and then. Other salary comes off the books, one of young kids replaces an existing higher salaried player, a trade or two happens that we cannot predict right now. Boom, we’re still highly competitive with a similar core. I think that is the general thought in management.
What is the definition of “overly”. Cap management is unquestionably a critical element of strategic roster planning that must be considered more than a year out to have change to be effective. I think you actually acknowledge that as “a tentative plane to keep them in the fold salary-wise.”. I’ve always liked the phrase “rigid flexibility” to describe the process. Note: There will be one additional salary reduction in 2021-22 that is not accounted for; the player selected by Seattle in their entry draft.
Should read “have a chance to be effective” not ” have a change to be effective”.
I’d say it’s a good problem to have (finally). Svech is obviously going to be with the team for at least another 6 seasons beyond this season. Hamilton is much bigger question. His goal scoring over the past 3 seasons leads NHL Dmen (right?). He could easily command $8-9 mil/year. But perhaps he takes a bit of a discount because he’s found a place where he fits in. Haula is really interesting and would love to have him longer term, but you can just see the similarity to the Ferland situation. It’s a huge year for him and he’s going to want to get PAID, esp after coming off a scary knee injury.
I think Canes find a way to move more salary to make room. I think Nino would be the most likely guy to get moved for this reason. As much as he was a spark last season, I think he’s replaceable, especially at over $5mil year. He’s also hard to move down the lineup because he really needs to be with playmaking linemates who can set him up. Right now, I’d rather have Haula than Nino if I can only have one of the two – especially since Haula plays so fast and is a center who can do everything.
Off Topic:
Chase Priskie news from Charlotte, https://cardiaccane.com/2019/10/31/carolina-hurricanes-chase-priskies-hot-start/
Catch a game when you can on AHLTV. Priskie is smooth and entirely in control of his game.
and trying to learn how to play a disciplined game like a NHL defenseman.
1. Waddell is a smart GM and he is generally (the Marleau notwithstanding) making smart moves with the cap (now and ni the future) in mind. There are always players like Haula and Dzingel who can be picked relatively inexpensively, and Waddell has shown he is not afraid to dump cap in order to create space (de Haan trade).
I expect we will continue to see year-to-year turnover in the players for cap management rather than buying and holding a lot of high-cap players.
2. I think the only players who constitute “core” and should be retained are Hamilton (even if he goes 8-9+, he is special) and Svech (of course). I don’t see Dzingel, Haula, Gibbons, Edmundson or TvR resigned. And I don’t think McGinn is core. These are all replaceable parts. I also don’t see us making a long-term commitment to Mrazek.
While I don’t think Martinook is “core”, I think he stays.
3. What’s the salary cap going to be in 3 years??, particularly given the new TV contract I expect much higher than now. And that will reset salaries by a large margin. If Svech and Hamilton continue to play like they are they will be very well-compensated.
What happens with Hamilton in the playoffs will have a big say in what he gets offereed. No doubt Hamilton is the kind of D that helps you get to the playoffs, but he has to be better than he was last year if he’s going to get the big offer.
More off topic:
More Puljujarvi and Jamie McGinn news. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/10/morning-notes-puljujarvi-scherbak-mcginn.html
Well, that McGinn bro experiment didn’t last very long.
Speaking of Canes and bros, I think the Canes will trade Jordan Staal in the next year or two, or expose him to the expansion draft.
He’s a great guy, one of the best defensive forwards in the league, but I think the Canes style of aggressive and high speed hockey is not the greatest match for him and his play seems to be regressing a bit (though hopefully it’s just a limited sample).
If guys like Geekie work out Staal may end up being a cap casualty.
We may also be able to trade Reimer to a team in need of goalie help (Devils/Leafs/Sharks) even this season, getting his
contract of the books.
It’s a bit of a risk, relying on either Ned or Forsberg, but Reimer is just too expensive as a backup goalie.
Brind’Amour will have a coronary if they dump McGinn. He doesn’t make that much cash and Brind’Amour loves him. Same goes for Staal. I’ve been a bit concerned about Staal’s defensive play early, but he’s got a long enough history to be given a pass for a while. I’d bet a lot of money Staal will be protected.
Agree about Reimer. If they can get a pick he’s gone.
Warshofsky said it was Jamie McGinn’s decision to be released. He wants to explore other opportunities.
He was valued in CLT and the “A” in his two games there.