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A busy week has me a bit behind in terms of posting my more formal season preview. (Hope is to get back to that Thursday or Friday.) But today’s Daily Cup of Joe has what I always think is one of the more fun themes this time of year — making the kind of long shot predictions that give you the ability to claim sheer genius if you are correct (but inevitably result in being way off).
Below is a short list of somewhat long shot predictions for the Carolina Hurricanes 2019-20 season. I would consider all of these less than 50 percent chances but also predictions that could materialize with a relatively small number of things going the right direction.
James Reimer becomes the starter for at least four weeks straight as some point
Looking fairly narrowly at the 2018-19 season, Petr Mrazek enters the 2019-20 season with a head of steam after a strong second half of the 2018-19 season and some late season and playoff heroics. On the other hand, James Reimer enters the 2019-20 season seeking a rebound after bottoming out in 2018-19. That short view paints wildly different expectations for each goalie entering the season. But if one looks back just a bit farther, Mrazek has had his share of downs to go with his recent up, and Reimer has similarly had some ups to go with his recent down trend. I am fully in the camp that says that all goalies are some combination of voodoo, snake charming, dice rolls and complete randomness. I think at some point during the season that both goalies revert back to the longer-term average which puts Reimer in the driver’s seat for an extended stretch at some point during the 2019-20 season. Though Mrazek would obviously be the odds on favorite to lead the team in wins, I do not think Reimer doing so instead would be as far-fetched as some might think. Who had Curtis McElhinney as being the Canes netminding difference-maker for the first half of the 2018-19 season? Again, something something voodoo, dice rolls, etc.
Andrei Svechnikov finishes top 10 in the NHL in goal scoring at or near 40 goals
Svechnikov’s rookie season was respectable but also in some ways underwhelming. As a highly-touted rookie and Calder front-runner entering the season, he was never in the mix. But along the way, Svechnikov put up a respectable despite quiet 20 goals. He also showed flashes of having exactly the tools that made him the top forward in the 2018 NHL draft. I think most likely is positive but modest step-wise progress for the 2019-20 season — maybe 25-29 goals and a bump up in points to at least 50? But I also think the possibility is there for Svechnikov to skip step-wise altogether and just go straight to having a break out season. I think the key ingredient for posting such a goal scoring jump would be clicking with Sebastian Aho who very much has the ability to generate enough high-quality scoring chances for a 40-goal scorer.
Julien Gauthier plays a bigger role than Martin Necas
As of right now, Julien Gauthier is an AHL player, and Martin Necas is in the opening night starting lineup at the NHL level. But I still think in the end, Gauthier could have a bigger impact this season. My reason is simply that I think Gauthier has figured out what he needs to do to stay at the NHL level and be effective such that when he gets his next chance he will seize it. For as skilled as Necas is and with his high ceiling still intact, I think he is still working to figure out what he needs to do to be effective at the NHL level. I think that current state of Necas’ game is likely to generate some ‘wow’ moments but also quite a bit of learning on the job. I am not predicting a huge season for Gauthier nor am I predicting a complete flop by Necas, but I do think Gauthier’s recent development in terms of every shift (or close) intensity bodes well for his play at the NHL level at some point during the 2019-20 season.
Jordan Martinook emerges as the closest proxy to Justin Williams for team leadership at least in terms of style
Jordan Staal was the logical choice for captain with Williams’ departure. And I think given the options, that makes some sense and is not a problem. That said, Staal’s leadership style historically has been the quiet, lead by example style. One thing that was noticeable about Williams in this role was his propensity to do a bit sword rattling here and there. He did not chuck teammates under the bus, but he did do some amount of noisy ranting and raving after unacceptable efforts and stretches. As a young group, I think the team may still need doses of noisy, passionate and ‘unquiet’ at times as it tries to make the tricky transition from being a bit of an underdog with minimal expectations to a team that will be considered a disappointment without at least repeating as a playoff entrant. Though I do think Staal has a role to play especially wearing the ‘C’, I think Martinook more so becomes the ‘noisy when needed’ leader of this group.
When venturing into the realm of long shot or at least less than 50 percent odds type predictions, I think three is enough to avoid risking being completely wrong on absolutely everything when we look back in 6-8 months.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these three predictions is most likely to happen? Which is most likely to be way off base?
2) What long shot or at least less than 50 percent probability predictions do you have for the Canes 2019-20 season?
Go Canes!
I don’t post here much, but read daily. I am very excited, but nervous for this season to begin. I am not so sure the Canes will produce the results I am hoping. Anyway, I definitely think Martinook will emerge as the “Williams” type leader for this team. I really think he is great with the younger players and I expect him to cultivate a strong relationship with Necas similar to Svech last season. This should benefit Necas…at least that is my hope. For the Canes to do as well as I hope, I will say a real long shot probability is Necas will score 15 goals and couple that with 25 assists. Doing this playing on Walmark’s line and on the PP.
I hope we don’t need Reimer to play because of injury to Mrazek or poor play by Mrazek.
I think it is going to be an up and down season. Right out of the gate the Canes are in for a rough row!!
Welcome, ulfhednar, and please keep posting because – and I’m going to sound like RedRyder here – your comments won’t be any less on-target than mine are.
The Martinook prediction isn’t much of a long shot, in my opinion. He is certainly the most vocal of the group. On the other hand he isn’t exactly the most experienced. Hard to replace someone who has seen and accomplished as much as Williams.
The others are a stretch. Reimer being the #1 for any length of time is a bad thing. Rooting against that one. Same goes for Gauthier vs. Necas. The Canes need Necas to grow and contribute. His skill set is elite. He is not horrendous without the puck as he was last season. Hopefully BrindAmour can bring him along as he did Svechnikov last season. Don’t put too much on him and in places where he can succeed. I like Gauthier, but he is bottom 6 material.
40 for Svechnikov? Maybe if he sticks with Aho and the PP gets going. 30 is realistic.
1. First, don’t I count 4 guesses??? LOL! I think the least likely is Martinook as a JW-style leader. Martinook is more the uncle who is the life of the party who then shows you how to fix your truck the next morning so you can go fishing in the afternoon. 🙂
I think any of the other 3 are quite possible – I certainly think Svech will tally 30+ goals if he gets his time in on the PP. That held him back last year. It will also depend who his linemates are.
Gauthier will see NHL ice time and I expect him to come in strong – but it will be tough to compare him to Necas because they play different games.
Mrazek won’t sustain high level play all season so Reimer will step in as effective starter until he gets injured and then….
2. Ned comes up and does his best Binnington impression. 🙂
I like ulf’s prediction of Necas with 15 goals and raise that 5. But he needs to play the opposite side to maximize the effectiveness of his one-tier for this to happen. I think the probability drops because I don’t see RBA putting him on the side with his PP schemes. I don’t see Necas on Wallmark’s line but…
With Wallmark and Martinook (and McGinn??) that may well be the best 4th line we have iced in like forever and could provide significant depth scoring – 50 goals??
Haha. So true about Martinook. I was alluding to that in my comments about his experience. None the less Martinook will be vocal. How much weight his voice carries is anybody’s guess.
Indeed – part of why I wrote that is this. When I was standing in line at Meet the Canes a couple of weeks ago I started talking with a fellow who had helped facilitate some of the Canes players getting tickets for the NC State vs. Ball State football game. You might have seen the video of Martinook leading cheers from the playing field in front of the student section. That was fun-loving Uncle Marty. There were 8 or 9 other players, most of them younger guys – I remember Fleury and Svech, maybe Turbo in the pics. So icture these young millionaire sports stars with booze and pretty college-aged women. What could possibly go wrong, eh? Martinook made sure all were present and accounted for throughout – and the players listened to him (me? – I would have gone for the booze and pretty ladies! LOL!). That was the sober uncle making sure you knew how to rebuild a carburetor (do cars still have those things??). And then they went out to dinner together afterwards.
Rebuilding a carburetor is a serious talent! Booze and pretty ladies is pretty much why I didn’t accomplish much in my teens and twenties!
I have a prediction that has less than 50% chance of happening: the Canes are buyers at the Trade Deadline and go on to win the Stanley Cup !!!
Hard to buy with limited cap space. Hope that’s a problem.
Lot’s of excitement but I expect bumps in the road. I am cautiously tempering my optimism because I believe it will take the team time to gel due to several new players. I am taking the long view and wouldn’t be surprised if this year unfolds in a similar way to last year: struggling and battling the first half of the season and then hitting our stride and surging the second half. BTW, I think most of us may be underestimating Necas. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Let the games begin!
Regarding the probability of Matt’s predictions, I would say Svechnikov getting close to 40 goals is the most likely of the three. It looks like he is going to get top line minutes with Aho and the like and that will really help him reach this level of scoring.
As far as my own long shot predictions for the season I know of one that I know will be a sure thing. That is that at the end of the year most everything I predict, evaluate, or comment on will probably turn out to be wrong. So with nothing to loose (or is it “lose”), he goes my long shot prediction. Mrazek will suffer an injury and Reimer will end up being the number one goalie AND we make the playoffs. Ned will be called up to back up Reimer and will excel in that role.
Now that we have that out of the way, let me finish my bottle of Crown Royale before going to lunch at Vinnie’s Boom Boom Room. See you at the game tonight ( I have a driver “Thanks”).
First, Thanks to Matt and all who post here… You guys should have your names in the credits 🙂 It’s been fun going through the off season (and all the previous seasons) with you guys/gals… Here’s to another fun season!
That said, I think Marti will be/(is) the closest to Williams style of a leader. He will keep it lose and get on teammates when they need it (IMO of course).
My longshot, which I really don’t think is that far off is that Wally will have a breakout year offensively. He has done that at every level and I think he will do that here as well. I predict he flirts with the 20 goal range… it will depend on how the lines are run. Hopefully, with the “4th” line being so strong, RBA can run that line more and can have balanced playing time for all lines.
IMO your long shot might not be off the mark. Wallmark has a history of being able to score at a higher level than he has so far in the NHL. Same goes for Foegle.
My longshot is that Mrazek becomes a solid wall. He will be up for the Vezina.
My longshot — either Forsberg or Ned gets a few consecutive starts, claims the 1A and doesn’t look back.
1) I actually don’t see any of Matt’s four as happening—though Martinook will be the vocal leader, just won’t bring the Williams’ gravitas of speaking with three rings.
2) Teravainen edges out Aho for most points as TT hits 60 assists.
I agree with ptblespaul and RR that Wallmark will surprise with his offense.