I had notes and good intentions of posting a recap and notes from the Hurricanes finale in Traverse City on Tuesday afternoon, but life got in the way. I will hopefully put them up in the next day or so.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks more broadly at the entirety of the tourney and offers ‘likes’ and ‘room for improvement’ from what I saw over the four-game set. My comments do also consider my assessment of the players coming into the tourney, so they are more of an update than an assessment on a very small sample size. In addition, all of these players are still fairly early in their development with the potential to improve and reach higher levels of play.
Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas as a duo
Like: Both players had their moments and looked every bit NHL-capable. Svechnikov showed the sniper-like capabilities of a goal scorer and Necas had his share of times where he seemed to cover 30 feet of ice in an eighth of a second. So individually, each player did enough to impress.
Room for improvement: As much as I tried to find it, I would not say that the duo exhibited great chemistry as defined by players making each other better. They did combine for one really pretty goal late in Tuesday’s game when Necas found Svechnikov with a nifty pass between the circles and Svechnikov made a pretty move and then finished with a laser for a goal. But in total, I did not see the two as being a 1+1=3 as often as I had hoped for entering the tournament.
Jeremy Helvig
Like: The seven goals allowed by invitee Mario Culina in the finale maybe highlighted some of the team’s struggles defensively. But in three games prior Helvig held up really well allowing only eight goals in three games and regularly holding the fort when the team in front of him was being outplayed. So there was a lot to like in Helvig’s game. What stood out most to me was that Helvig was a really, really good first save goalie. He did a great job of anticipating shots and playing into them with his big frame and showed athleticism when that was not enough. As I have said before, it will be interesting to see if he is playing his way into some AHL ice time sooner rather than later.
Room for improvement: As is often the case for young goalies, Helvig has a ways to go on rebound control. Even on a decent number of routine saves, he seems to be mostly just trying to stop the puck without much ability to control where it goes after that.
Janne Kuokkanen
Like: Kuokkanen is a heady read/react type player who thinks the game well. He gets positioning, puck support, making passing lanes and just generally how to consistently make good decisions. That combined with having enough skill gives him the ability to be a good complementary player on a scoring line.
Room for improvement: As much as I like the headiness in Kuokkanen’s game, the current iteration of him does not seem to have a ton of dynamic maybe somewhat like Elias Lindholm. But being a good all-around complementary player could still make for a serviceable middle six forward.
Andrei Svechnikov
Like: This might sound odd, but one of the things that stood out to me about Svechnikov was how good of a player he was without the puck offensively. Somewhat from a James Neal mold in today’s NHL or possibly a Jeff O’Neill mold from Hurricanes history, Svechnikov has a really good knack for working and thinking without the puck to be a receive and finish type player. That fits well on a scoring line with other players who are more puck handlers/distributors (think Aho/Teravainen). So while his laser of a shot garners more headlines, that is what jumped out about his game in Traverse City.
Room for improvement: Call me greedy, but I would have liked just a bit more dynamic and dominating against this sub-NHL competition. Svechnikov’s point total was fine, and he had his share of ‘that’s and NHLer’ moments, but I would have liked to see more stretches where he just dominated at this level.
Nicolas Roy
Like: During the tourney I compared him to Victor Rask in terms of quickly reading situations and then using his size to take away passing lanes, angles or whatever else. Roy’s defensive play is good, and his game is mature and well-rounded for his age. The result is a player who projects to be at least a capable depth center.
Room for improvement: But based on where he is at right now, I have a hard time projecting Roy as more than a checking line forward best suited for a fourth line. He lacks too many of the tools that generate offense. He does not possess quick three-stride acceleration/jump that can make for scoring chances and his puck skills are below average for a center. More basically, I would ideally like to see more offensive upside from Roy.
Luke Henman
Like: If I had to pick a few players whose stock rose most with from the tourney, Henman would make the short list. His hockey IQ impressed me. He reminds me a bit of the young iteration of Brandon Sutter who just made a lot of good small plays. Henman’s offensive ceiling might be higher, but regardless, his hockey sense with enough skill projects well.
Room for improvement: Even at this level, Henman had times where he was overmatched physically. But he is 18 years old and has time to add size and strength.
My tentative plan is to do similar analysis for each of the Hurricanes prospects who played in Traverse City. Stay tuned for more.
Go Canes!
I think you are doing a bang up job with your assessments. No disrespect to M. Smith, I trust your insight from viewing the games. Keep up the good work!
My viewing of all the games left me disappointed in general about the performance of every player at Traverse City. I went in with an attitude that for a player or players to show potential for this year’s Canes roster they had to really standout in a dominate manner. Svetchnikov came the closest to doing this IMO and no one else came close. My attitude after so many disappointing years is now “show me,” don’t tell me as I’m not in for any more hype. This is a different approach than yours, Matt. Yours is more of looking for the bright spots compared to my more pessimistic approach and serves a valid purpose IMO. You certainly aren’t over hyping anyone. You are just looking harder for positive things in each player’s performances. To put my thoughts in focus Traverse City is telling me that Martinook and the Finish forward look to both have excellent chances of being on the Canes roster over anyone who played at Traverse City other than Svetchnikov.
The Athletic has published two articles that may help memories of Traverse City fade away. First, Cory Pronman has done his top 100 prospects heading into the 2018-2019 season and he hasn’t kicked the Canes’ prospects out based on Traverse City. Svechnikov is ranked 2nd, Necas 10th, Kuokkanen 63rd and Fox 64th. Nobody else is rated or given honorable mention, but at least an expert still looks favorably on the four prospects named.
Second and I think even more encouraging, Dom L has done an analytics-based projection that shows the Canes with a 50-50 chance to make the playoffs despite issues in goal. Surprisingly, Dom L’s model likes the Hurricanes better than Dallas and St. Louis. Dom L does mention that it’s hard to believe what his model says about the Canes because it’s been saying the same thing for years and been wrong.
Nevertheless, I’ll take it. He has Necas centering Williams and Zykov and Staal centering Svechnikov and McGinn. Aho is centering Teravainen and Ferland. While he cautions about first-year projections, he projects 46 pts for Zykov, 43 for Svechnikov and 37 for Necas.
For me at least, the new prospect ratings and projections for the season are a welcome antidote to impressions from Traverse City. I’m willing to believe the experts instead of my own eyes and eager for preseason again. We’ll know in a couple of months if any of these ratings and projections are reasonable.
wow… I think I like those lines or at least understand them. My first thought would not have Jordan on a scoring line, however that fixes the problem RBA mentioned that Svench and Necas seem to defer to each other too much. This gives a smart veteran with each of the new guys… I like that…
Agree with all your evaluations and will call you greedy over Svechnikov, but I will say I think we’re being a bit hard on the offense for not being as dominant when they had to spend so much time covering for the defense. You could tell when Bean and Fora were on the ice, because the Canes were usually a better team, but de Jong et. al. did not have a great tournament and really held the offense back by forcing them to play the majority of their shifts in their own zone.
Given that we are not like to see much of that problem at the NHL level, I’d say we are much better set up to see the rookies perform more consistently at an NHL level, when they can really get more comfortable in their own games instead of having to constantly cover for others. This is simply my opinion.
Fogger that makes a lot of sense…, do you think MGMT knows that?
Fortunately those Dmen have time to get better, or can be replaced! Hopefully the training camp won’t be SO BAD!!???
Most of the D-men at Traverse City were invitees for the tournament only and will not be at training camp. Bean and Fora were exceptions.
If agood part of the reason our young offensive stars largely disappointed in T town then I must commend management from building the team from D out (yes, I am sounding unusually positive aren’t I).
I am very disappointed in the outcome and play of the team, but at least half the defense was made up of invitees which we won’t see again.
I haven’t analyzed the other teams that competed, but it is a fact that teams can send much older, bigger and more experienced players to Traverse City, so guys like Necas and Andrei who are playing NHL level (ish) hockey for the first time, and inevitably it takes some adjusting.
I do not expect aeither of those to come roaring and scoring out of the gates when the season starts, and ultimately, unless the team adds proven NHL forward firepower, I am low on the playoff chances, but there is potential, enough to keep us entertained throughout the season.
And I remind myself that the Canes have one this tournament twice in a pretty convincing fashion and subsequently limped through the NHL season. It’s not inconceivable that the opposite could be true.
I think your last paragraph sums it up. Disappointing, but what does it really mean?