And just like that the Carolina Hurricanes are a game below .500 and heading in the wrong direction with three consecutive losses (one in overtime). And as luck would have it, a busy Thursday kept me from writing a daily post before the 9pm Hurricanes game which leaves me trying to write one late at night and at the same time that I try to make sense of the bizarre 5-3 loss on Thursday night.
Below is a somewhat random set of musings on the 4-5-2 start.
How bad is it?
4-5-2 was not the target when the season started, but just how bad is it? Let me come at that from a couple directions.
In terms of trying to hit a 95-point pace (generally good enough to make the playoffs) by collecting half the points on the road and two-thirds of the points at home the Hurricanes are 2.7 points off the pace already. That is not a huge amount, but last season was a good indication of just how hard it is to make up even a few points in the second half of the season.
Compared to the 2016-17 season, the Hurricanes are now running only a single point above that pace.
And in terms of optics to casual fans locally, sitting in eighth place (partly due to playing fewer games) just does not look good.
So yeah…It is not an unrecoverable situation, but it is legitimately bad.
Is there reason to think that things will turn around?
I actually think there is. Bill Peters’ teams have been characterized by slow starts, struggles trying to find any kind of repeatable formula in October or November and then finally emergence in early December. If the team can scratch and claw for enough points to stay relevant, it is not at all inconceivable that the team will play its best hockey starting in December.
What concerns me most?
With a myriad of choices, three high level things concern me most right now.
First is that the team’s alleged strength, its blue line, has yet to materialize. The group looks good anytime that games open up, and the game becomes a skating game with pace that plays to the Hurricanes’ strengths. But I would say that the group is average at best in terms of defending and still prone to too many of the lapses that are typical of a young defense that is more learning than fully arrived.
Second is that the team still looks young. The inconsistency is a trademark of a young team still trying to figure it out. The Hurricanes have looked very good when they get going but has proven unable to do much to grind out scoring and wins on the nights that do not go their way.
Third is that I have no idea what the team’s identity is or what its target formula for winning is. The team has fared best when playing open ice games that push pace and trade chances. That is problematic in two ways. First is that I am not sure that such a style really translates to extended runs. Second is that the Hurricanes have not shown that they can force this style of play on teams that do not want it.
But what are the positives?
Though the team might lack high-end scoring punch, the 2017-18 Hurricanes are much deeper at forward than any other Hurricanes team in recent history.
I also think that despite its intermittent struggles at times early in the 2017-18 season that the blue line still has the potential to emerge as a strength. Haydn Fleury has easily been more good than bad as a rookie and has the potential to make big strides forward as he settles in. Noah Hanifin is still a work in progress on the defensive side of the puck, but the offensive part of his game has made more significant improvements. Hanifin’s shot is better as is his comfort level carrying the puck and stepping into the play offensively.
Finally, and not to be overlooked, I think the bigger problem would be if the team seemed to be playing near its potential but still could not win. That would suggest that the team just is not good enough under any circumstances (like 2014-15). I would not say that is the case. I would actually say that the opposite is true. The Hurricanes are not playing well but are still sort of treading water. That suggests that if even a few things start clicking that the team can move up from where it is now.
If I had the controls, what would I do right now?
If I was the coach right now, I think one of my points of emphasis would be trying to build a scoring line around Sebastian Aho.
As I see the Hurricanes offense right now, it goes like this…Jeff Skinner seems capable of generating offense for himself and maybe not so much anyone else regardless of who his line mates are. Past that the Hurricanes are struggling to consistently generate offense. And finally, I think that Sebastian Aho has the greatest potential to be the kind of scoring line catalyst that the team was unable to add this summer.
I could go either way on whether that means a move back to his natural center position for Aho, but I think a simpler first try to would be pairing Aho with as much offensive help as possible and with players who are comfortable playing without the puck. I love the idea of pairing Aho with heady veteran Justin Williams, and then I could see trying either Derek Ryan or Victor Rask between them.
The team needs at least one more source of relatively consistent offense. Without that, every day is a dice roll for whether an individual steps up.
I will be curious to re-read this after some time to mull over Thursday’s loss and what it means in the bigger picture. In the meantime, I would love to hear everyone else’s assessment of the current situation.
Go Canes!
1. How bad is it? It sure is no confidence builder. Missed an opportunity to get ahead of our competitors for a playoff spot as they are not playing up to their potential right now. It is turning all of our in conference games into must wins.
2. All your concerns are mine also. I am also concerned with the coaching. Too many questionable moves (no Skinner for 10 minutes in a tie game, not starting your number 1 goalie in a game against an opponent he is familiar with and on 3 days rest, etc.) no ability to put together any effective combinations (either because he doesn’t know how, or he loves to tinker, or he has the players so defensive conscious they are playing primarily not to make a defensive mistake, or he has selected the wrong players to start with). He seems to think in today’s hockey that you are going to win enough of 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 games to make the playoffs. Not likely.
3. Positives? None. Winning is the name of the game. Looking good and losing doesn’t mean a thing. We don’t look like a team that has the drive to win or bury our opponents.
4. Right now: Trade off some of the perimeter forwards and get someone who will play in front of the net and someone who will hit an opponent who is headed directly at our goalie with the puck. Get a defenseman who will clear the front of our net. Call up players now playing at Charlotte that are better offensively (Wallmark, Kuokanen, Zykov, etc.)than some of the players currently on the team.
Overall assessment: Not good. Season is starting to slip away. We have identifiable problems, but we don’t have the coaching or management to do anything about them. We are in a “time will solve our problems” mode when we have no time. We seemed to have over rated our players. There is an old maxim about successful coaching in sports, “Don’t fall in love with your players.” We apparently have. It’s a failing that fans can have. It’s not a failing that good management and coaching can have. Going season after season waiting for numerous players to “bloom” is not a sound process. You need to solve player problems quicker than the Canes management and coaching is doing it. Why keep losing with the same personnel?
Well put.
player changes:
1. We need a scoring forward (sniper). I don’t know what to do with this one, we had chances ove rthe summer (seemingly) but were unable to add one. Maybe we can still pry somebody lose from a panicking organization like Kreider from the Rangers, AG from Montreal or someone from he Oilers, I doubt it.
2. We need an offensive catalyst (move Aho to center).
3. We need a net crasher (bring up Zykov). .
4. We need an additional veteran defenseman (not sure we can do anything about that).
I think coaching is a bigger issue.
* Our Powerplay is painful to watch.
* Player decisions are downright puzzling at times (what’s with the Dalbeck fettish, he wasn’t the wrost out thereyesterday though, also good to see a goal from the Doctor, but I’d sit him for a game and bring up Walmark).
Most of us have said this since the summer, we are one high end scoring forward and veteran defenseman short of being a playoff team.
We are a deeper team, yes, but we don’t have players with complementary skill sets.
What are you going to do if you have 20 types of quality pork saucages when a vegan comes to visit? All we can serve him is buns and mustard, and that doesn’t make for a tasty combo.
I am beginning to lose faith in Peters. don’t know where his head is.
“Compared to the 2016-17 season, the Hurricanes are now running only a single point above that pace.” – This makes me say “ugh”, with emphasis even!
Matt, you are correct that in December 2016 and November 2015 the Hurricanes reversed negative trends and started winning. In neither case, however, did it just happen on it’s own. In both cases there was a significant change-up in the lines and the roster – with players being called up from Charlotte – Slavin, Pesce, PDG, McGinn, Ryan.
The question is do we need that same catalyst (I think we do – or are very close to it), and what the catalyst could be.
Internally – yes, move Aho to center; he is practically playing that way as is; and he has been great driving possession. Having another possession-minded forward on his wing (Williams) and another complementary scorer (Teuvo?) could be a dynamic line.
From Charlotte –
If you want a playmaker – call up Wallmark.
If you want net-front presence – call up Zykov.
Why not both?
Regardless, the changes in play came in previous years came with changes in personnel and how that personnel was used.
I whole-heartedly agree with this statement. I love both Ryan and McGinn as high motor, high effort players, but I feel Wallmark and Zykov could both give better offense in those roles, while not (Wallmark at least) sacrificing too much defense.
I’m still not even slightly worried, because change for the sake of change, is just placation and not a path to consistent winning. If we’re going to change, have a reason for it. breezy and raleightj have a good reason and a good solution. It’s time for Wallmark and Zykov to get a shot, and their skillsets actually fill gaps in our game. I approve.
After some time to digest Thursday’s loss and think about the current state of the Canes after a night’s sleep, I mostly land where I was last night when I wrote this.
Perhaps it is just the recency bias of 3 straight losses, but the biggest thing for me is that I do not have a feeling that the team is on the right track or any track right now. It feels random. I am not sure what the team’s identity is or its strengths. I am not sure that I really know what good 2017-18 Hurricanes hockey looks like other than generically winning.
Timing would be really good for Darling to get hot, steal some games and buy some time to figure things out.
Though we are only 11 games into the season, I am also not averse to a reasonable shake up. One of the catalysts for better hockey each of the past two years has been a significant set of call ups from the AHL in late November/early December (when it was mostly too late). Perhaps that is the first/simplest way to try to jolt the team upward, and I am not at all against sooner rather than later.
Right now, the deficit is small, but it is a deficit nonetheless, and the team is a couple bad weeks (no different than the past week) away from entering December in familiar territory.
Who has the shock paddles?
How anyone can be optimistic about this non-team is a mystery to me? The BIGGEST NEED IS A COUPLE MEAN, NASTY GOONS! no one I’ve seen has a pulse /let alone BALLS!!
Very frustrating game to watch. Burn the tape on the plane to ARI and move on. The TOR is still the template even if it feels more like the exception than the rule right now.
If we lose tomorrow night, something better happen. I don’t know what that will be, or what it should be, but something dramatic better happen…
We are one forward (catalyst who goes to the net) and veteran defenseman (who focuses on defense) away from turning this annual mess around. I’m actually okay with goaltending, it’s not been that bad. Our offense is weighing down the defense in my opinion.
Not sure what else to say beyond the fact we have to give up someone we think is part of the core to get what we need. Anyone need a talented perimeter playing forward? I’m sure there are two or three teams who need such.
If I were GMRF I’d be calling Vegas again. I’d try to work out a deal for Neal and Garrison with salary retained by Vegas. We may not get the 1C catalyst right now, so lets go plan B and get no nonsense character in the lineup. We have parts they could use.
While interesting, who do you move out? It can’t be just picks. I believe we’re at 49 contracts. we’d need to send a player to them to hold a max 50 contracts.
I agree with many of the comments above. If you break down the problems we are having, most of them match the same ones we were having last year. Yes, there are a few minor improvements & depth is better but it isn’t showing right now. There needs to be a motivating change whether that is in line changes, demotions, call ups, trades, or firings; something has to be done. If things are still like this a couple weeks from now, I would expect some kind of change.
I like the idea of moving Aho to center & putting 2 experienced guys on his wings. If BP hasn’t tried this yet, why not?? And now may be a good time if you want to keep your job. Could’nt be any worse.
Also like the idea of calling Wallmark up. He has been playing great & could at least temporarily motivate the team for awhile. Let him play center and move Ryan or Rask over to the wing. Neither have done much at center, so maybe it could spark some scoring from them in another role.
Since Skinny & Williams seem to have a chemistry, plus having the vet presence of Williams can help Aho’s transition to center. TT & Staal played good together before so it may be time to get them back together for awhile. When Stempy comes back, he can take Ryan’s spot giving us even more experience to help Wallmark transition also.
Maybe something BP can try:
Skinny-Aho-Williams
TT-Staal-Lindy
Rask-Wallmark-Ryan
I think the suggestion of going after Neal & Garrison could have some merit. Neal would def give us a vet scoring presence with some grit & Garrison would def be a true defender clearing the crease. Just what we need. I think Vegas is keen on stockpiling draft picks so maybe we could get a good trade without disrupting the roster too much.
Hope we can improve one way or the other real soon !!!
I’m not a Derek Ryan hater, but he’s not quite good enough for where he’s slotted….in the middle next to Skins. I’d really like to see Wallmark given a shot there.