Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks at key points on the path to where the Hurricanes are right now which is in playoff position with only 13 games remaining.
The management/leadership shake up
The start of building the 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes actually started at almost exactly this time last year. With the local media mostly away for the ACC basketball tourney. the Hurricanes announced that Ron Francis had been relieved of his role as general manager of the team. The team eventually transitioned to Don Waddell and/or GM by committee. That decision played a huge role in shaping the current roster.
Then shortly after the end of the 2017-18 season, the team played a game of chicken with Head Coach Bill Peters who ultimately left on his own. Shortly thereafter, Rod Brind’Amour was named the head coach. No doubt, Brind’Amour’s leadership has played a huge role in changing the attitude of the team.
Finally and to no one’s surprise, the team named Justin Williams as the new captain. As a first lieutenant to Brind’Amour, Justin Williams has similarly played a key role in changing the culture and attitude of the team.
The end result was that the vast majority of the group managing the team at all levels changed over.
The summer work building the roster
Before the off-season was underway, the Hurricanes won the second pick in the 2018 NHL Draft and the right to select Andrei Svechnikov. Svechnikov gave the team another top 9 forward with scoring potential without giving anything up in trade.
After hoping for but not yet realizing the emergence of a young blue line that was a strength, Don Waddell significantly revamped the blue line with consecutive mid-summer moves. First, the team swapped Noah Hanifin for Dougie Hamilton in a trade that also saw Micheal Ferland and Elias Lindholm subtracted. Then the team added Calvin de Haan as a free agent signee. The addition of not one but two higher-end defenseman reshaped the roster maybe more than many realized.
The other big move was one that provoked much grumbling. Jeff Skinner was traded for only a collection of mid-tier prospects. As I said at the time, I think this was a Brind’Amour-driven move aiming to shake up the leadership, locker room and culture.
Finally, the team decided to part ways with Cam Ward, give Scott Darling another year to try to sort things out and shop from the low-end of the price range in the goalie market in adding Petr Mrazek to the mix.
The upshot was a significant change in direction on the blue line, the elimination of one leader and half of a new goalie tandem.
In-season personnel changes
The team also benefited from a number of in-season personnel changes.
Of all of the moves that have occurred during the season, I think one can make a strong case that the most notable was the waiver wire addition of Curtis McElhinney. With Darling injured and Petr Mrazek off to a bit of a slow start, I am not sure the Hurricanes would still be in the mix had McElhinney not parachuted in from Toronto and held the fort in net until the team could get its feet under it and until Mrazek could settle in and find a higher gear.
The beginning of the season also saw Sebastian Aho move back to his natural center position seemingly on a trial basis and with some skepticism from Brind’Amour. But the trial run launched successfully and has been on an upward trajectory from there. Aho at the center position has boosted the offense in two ways. First, he is producing more offense himself with the puck on his stick. Maybe even more significantly, Aho is better able to dictate the game and increase production for his line mates in his new role that sees him front and center as a playmaker.
The other headline move was the huge trade to send an underperforming Victor Rask away and somehow in return net Nino Niederreiter. Niederreiter excelled from day one on a top line with Sebastian Aho and made the team one deeper in terms of legitimate scoring forwards. Niederreiter has contributed to both the depth and the top of the Canes roster.
Also on the depth note and underappreciated and under the radar was the move to recall Greg McKegg and Saku Maenalanen. When Martin Necas did not work out at the NHL level, the team became shallower at forward, especially the center position. And then the December injury of Jordan Staal removed another center from the mix. After a revolving door that included Phil Di Giuseppe, Nicolas Roy, Janne Kuokkanen, Clark Bishop and Valentin Zykov see stints in depth forward roles, the started anew at the beginning of 2019 with McKegg and Maenalanen. In a fit of improbable irony, it was under these circumstances that the Hurricanes transitioned from being a team challenged to find three lines to having a balanced set of four that Brind’Amour trusted. Coinciding almost exactly with the start of the Canes winning run, McKegg and Maenalanen formed two-thirds of a newly-created fourth line that could not only be trusted defensively but could also chip in offensively. The result was a transition to four line hockey and more balance in terms of ice time.
Be it fortuitous luck with McElhinney, a coach’s decision to move Aho to center, a marquee deal to land Niederreiter or sorting out the forward depth with AHL call ups in McKegg and Maenalanen, the management team has pushed all the right buttons personnel-wise during the 2018-19 season.
Netting it out
If I had to pick the most significant items from above, my version goes like this:
1) The establishment of Brind’Amour and Williams as the new leadership charted a course to try to change the team’s attitude and culture. As much as anything, that change is central to the team’s success thus far in 2018-19.
2) The move to revamp the blue line completely changed the structure of the team from being a team that hoped to have the blue line as a driver for success to one that actually realized that possibility.
3) The luck of landing Curtis McElhinney was arguably the team’s biggest in-season addition. I think it is highly possible that the team would just have imploded from October to December if not for McElhinney stepping in to add early season stability in net.
What say you Canes fans?
1) If forced to pick only one item from each category (changing leadership/management, off-season moves and in-season moves) which do you think is most significant from each category?
2) What other key points on the path to the Hurricanes’ success thus far should be included?
Go Canes!
Great article Matt. This reads like a Harvard Business Review case study on the building of a champion. As with most similar cases, it took a series of good decisions and a little luck. Well, 2X really good luck in getting the second pick in the draft and claiming Big Mac.
The only thing I would add is how players are being prepared in Charlotte. Velucci and the culture change there is creating players who are ready to play with confidence when they arrive, as we have discussed before.
Thank you for running this site and documenting how this season has unfolded. It is starting to feel like a magical season.
Your comment on Vellucci/Charlotte is spot one. More than anything, what stood out to me with the previous generation of Canes prospects was how ‘deer in the headlights’ each and every one of them looked when being recalled. I do think there was an element of that previous group just not being more than fringe NHL caliber, but I also think there was enough talent there that a couple of those players could at least have been serviceable NHLers. But they always looked to be in over their head at the NHL level.
Fast forward to today, and I think the opposite is true. The Hurricanes have been able to drop a series of players into the NHL (Wallmark, Bishop, Roy, Kuokkanen, Maenalanen, McKegg, etc.) and all looked at least competent. That is not to say that every one of these players necessarily sticks at the NHL level, but they very much look like they are prepared for an NHL role.
That is huge for the long run if it continues. Injuries are a fact of life in the NHL, so having a system that has NHL-ready talent at the call is a huge benefit over the course of a long 82-game season.
1) In season moves are really the only explanation. Justin Williams was the captain and the new leadership/management was in place when the Canes went two games below .500 in December. The team was foundering. The January upswing corresponded with the arrival of McKegg/Maenalanen then Niederreiter. It is much easier to lead when your followers are performing better. Apparently McKegg has some qualities that obvious–many of us forget that the Checkers were struggling to get into the playoffs in February 2018. Once they acquired McKegg they went 15-3-1, including 9-0-1 in their last 10 games. The Canes success with McKegg in the lineup has been similar. I am sure he made the Checkers better, I think for the Canes it is mostly, but not entirely, coincidence.
2) Puck luck. For the past 3-4 years the Canes were darlings of the advanced stats folks. But their shots just didn’t go in. The on Dec. 23 (the one game I attended this year) Teravainen passed in front of the net with the Canes trailing the Bruins 2-0 in the first period. The puck hit a defender and went in. The Canes added two short-handed goals and won. Had the Canes got blown out in that game, which is what was happening in the first 12 minutes, the season might have continued south. Then against Buffalo in early January the Canes scored three goals off Sabre players. Those things just didn’t happen the previous few seasons. One of my favorite sayings is that a golfer will blame a poor round on the weather, poor greens, bad bounces but will take full credit for a hole-in-one. Scientists have stated that hockey is the sport most subject to randomness. The Canes were on the receiving end of some good luck–then Williams, management, and new arrivals helped improve the mix.
Hi
First time post. You completely overlooked the Martinook deal. His impact on the culture change should not be. Also letting both DiGuseppi and Zykov go via waivers has turned out correctly.
I second the Martinook for Kruger trade as important. Huge upgrade that was overlooked by the mainstream hockey media’s frenzy to brand Dundon as the worst hockey owner ever.
Hey bbqgeek….Welcome! And great first post.
I completely agree that Martinook should have been included. He is sort of a hybrid of a couple themes. First and foremost as you mentioned, he has been an instrumental part of the culture change. My single favorite thing about Martinook is watching how quickly/enthusiastically he hops of the bench after the overtime game-winners. As a player who does not see the ice in overtime, it is like he is sitting there at full attention on the edge of his seat ready to spring up when the team wins. That plus his (and he is not the only one) taking Svechnikov in sets a team-first culture.
He also fits in the ‘depth’ theme too as a bottom half of the roster player who has a huge 15 goals despite not ever being part of the power play.
We look forward to your continued contribution to the ‘coffee shop’ that mostly moved to every post awhile back.
Most significant:
– RBA as head coach. Overall, the team plays a tough, fast game that can beat any team on any given night. But also, he’s made some tough calls that other coaches wouldn’t have. Staal went down long term and the team was struggling – so he put Aho-TT on the PK and I think that really sparked this team. He moved Nino up with Aho, rather than make Nino prove himself on the second or third line. He left Aho at center even though it seemed he wanted him at wing.
– Prior to the last month, I would have said deHaan was the biggest summer player move. But given Mrazek’s play in 2019, it might be him.
– While Nino is certainly a huge boost, this team would have probably 5 fewer wins without McElhinney’s play. He’s simply been fantastic and it was simple luck that Darling got hurt and at the same time McElhinney went on waivers.
On Oct. 1st, 2018 Toronto put 2 goalies on waivers. Curtis McElhinney and Calvin Pickard. On the 2nd the Canes, with the choice of either, picked Mc. Soon after the Flyers picked Calvin. The decision to go with Mc wasn’t clear cut, but turned out brilliant.
For me the decision of new ownership to change the culture of the team was the most important element. The first move was to “transfer Ron Francis” within the head office and begin a search for a new GM. Dundon was panned for such a Mark Cuban-like brash move against a league revered “HOFer”. Ironically RF’s name is not being brought up now, while several GM openings exist. His 3 years as GM did a lot to repair the team’s prospect pool, but apparently not enough to keep him in the conversation for GM openings. A friend recently talked to RF at a local benefit where he was honorary chair. He is currently selling commercial real estate.
RF made the decision at the end of last year to go into commercial real estate development. I had the impression that he made the conscious decision to exit the hockey business and pursue a new career path.
Team culture is definitely the biggest change evident now – and some of that has to do with players who play with that edge – Martinook, Nino, McKegg, Saku.
But in talking about culture, you have to ask (and answer, presumably) where was this culture in December?? That month was horrible, low-energy hockey with interviews in the locker room spouting the usual cliches, “have to start on time”, “need to play 60 minutes”, “need to get back to out game”, etc., etc., etc. That was the same team with the same coaching and the same team leadership.
Something really changed going into the New Year, such that the past 2-1/2 months has seen the Canes be the best team in the league in terms of wins and points (as of a few days ago).
December stands out as a sore thumb if you try to make the argument of a continuum in “culture change” since RF lost the GM. A theory that speaks to a change in culture with the ascension of RBA and JW has to account for that month.
On the other hand, winning creates it’s own positive culture, and we are seeing that now, and it feeds itself. The team can come out of a debacle like WPG and take it to NSH and COL on the road.
The book view at the end of the season will be the TD/RBA/JW culture change, but I will always feel resistant to that concept when I remember December.
I would posit the alternative theory that the team winning and finding confidence since NYE has been the cause of the culture change currently on display.
I like ct’s comment, “The Canes were on the receiving end of some good luck–then Williams, management, and new arrivals helped improve the mix.” It stands as a factor in the difference between December and the rest of the season.
In addition to what I wrote above, I think kudos have to go to a man who has lived under a cloud since he GM’d the Thrashers before they moved and gets blamed for that move.
Don Waddell has done an amazing job restructuring this team. Of the 23 players on the team’s roster last season only 10 remain. That is a 56% turnover. I have read that an expected turnover from season to season is 25%, so this change is huge. And he brought in the right types of players – opportunistically (Mac) and through design (Martinook and Nino).
He has been making smart move after smart move – only one blockbuster trade). They talk about a GM-by-committee, but it is DW on the phone making/accepting the calls.
Waddell is doing a great job.
Also, he is at most games in a suite in Lower South. I frequenlty see him on the concourse and he always stops to greet fans.
I was not a fan of the Waddell hiring in the spring, but I am now.
I land pretty much in the same boat on Waddell.
I was not thrilled with the GM by committee/Waddell decision initially but giving credit where it is due, some combination of Waddell and the group have built a great track record so far. The proof is ultimately in the results, but if this team pushes up into the playoffs (obviously not a done deal yet), is there any reason why Waddell should not be a finalist for GM of the year with the coaching change, captain change, summer moves that reshaped the team and then the Niederreiter trade that all played significant roles in boosting a 2018 non-playoff team up?
I think that the influx of fresh Checkers made the difference, just like Slavin and Pesce did a ew years ago.
I also think the Kruger/Martinook trade was a brilliant under the radar trade by the management.
Martinook is the ideal 4th line guy with toughness, soul, grit and scoring.
the Keg is of the same mold and is making the best of his opportunity, Saku likewise, though he is not as strong an addition as the Keg.
I think the nothing-to-lose attitude that developed in december maybe allowed RA to relax a little and focus on building th team he wants instad of worrying about each and every game, maybe it’s just pure luck, maybe it was the chemistry, and also the team has been compensated or its run of bad luck in decent years with some fortuitous bounces, they’ve earned those.
sddly Tuesday did not help the cAnes at all, it’s still a dog fight and the next stretch of 2 or 3 games could be crucial to getting a good hold on a playoff ticket.
Great analysis Matt. Great posts as well. But we all must realize that we are like the three blind men who encounter an elephant. The first holds the elephant’s tail and states that an elephant is a rope. The second blind man holds the trunk and states that the elephant is a snake. The third blind man hugs the elephant’s leg and says that the elephant is a pillar.
All three are accurate. But they are each wrong. What is missing? Perspective. How do all of the parts work together to make up the total? There is so much that we don’t know about how all the parts work together. So much that we likely will never know.
What happened in December? Who knows? Who cares? We are winning and battling for a playoff spot. It is fun to watch. Fun to speculate. Fun to cheer them on. Fun to celebrate home victories with them.
Is it magic? You bet it is. At least it is for this not-very-humble fan.
Making a note not to pull a rope until I am sure it is in fact a rope. This analogy points out that the situation could be much more precarious than originally believed.
Here is a thoughtfully written article from Cardiac Cane comparing Ron Francis’ tenure as GM to DonWaddell’s. Totally supportive of the comments by raleightj above. https://cardiaccane.com/2019/03/10/carolina-hurricanes-don-waddell-ron-francis-compare/4/
A good read. I also don’t think Waddell got enough credit as president of the organization. By changing ticketing policies (effectively eliminating heavily discounted and complimentary tickets) and other arena streamlining, he brought the Canes back to the black for the first time since a playoff year.
He has really served the organization well.
I agree that DW deserves a lot of credit for his moves. I wasn’t a fan initially fan and I’ve stabbed a whole band of horses to death on the skinner trade (especially the small hall) but the management moves this season in terms of trades has been the best kind of opportunistic.
The Nino trade totally cancelled out the skiner trade and the Martinook trade, the big Mac pickups and good run of resigning key players, like TT, have put them firmly in the black.
I hope some of the staff will be in the running for awards, but the ticket I think is to get the team into the playoffs, which is very doable but far from guaranteed.
The biggest blemish for them is not having signed Aho earlier, but we don’t know the situation around that.
And blind peope have much more developed sense of awareness than peple generally think *grin* they can tell an elephant trunk from a snake.
Once the blind man has learned that he neither knew much about snakes or elephants does he continue to insist he held a snake?
There’s a lot to unpack here, but as I said on another site, the biggest difference in this team and last year’s team is how they play fast. Bill Peters’s system depended on guys with speed playing hard and aggressively. RBA’s system is essentially the Peters system with a few tweaks. The biggest difference is the guys played fast some of the time under Peters, but the guys play fast nearly all of the time under Brind ‘Amour.
As much as he still has the occasional brain fart, Justin Faulk’s improved defensive play has more than made up for his decline in offense. Pairing him with de Haan earlier in the season had a good bit to do with that, but RBA likely helped him understand his defensive gaps.
While the Martinook and blockbuster Calgary trade seemingly has worked out okay for both teams (if Fox signs), the in-season acquisitions of McElhinney and Niederreiter were the real difference makers. Mac came in and propped up the team’s goaltending at exactly the right time. Nino is just a better player than Rask….all the way around…despite playing the less valuable position. We all should be saying a prayer to Paul Fenton every night for that one.
Lastly, Ron Francis was the right guy at the right time for this team. We needed a patient builder and Don Waddell/Tom Dundon benefitted from his years of toil rebuilding the farm. We can afford to trade a guy like Elias Lindholm for 1 year of Michael Ferland, because we have a near-ready Julian Gauthier in Charlotte, a near-ready Aleksi Saarela in Charlotte, or even a surprising Morgan Geekie in Charlotte. That’s Ron Francis’s work. What Ronnie couldn’t do, that Waddell could, is make the bold move to put the finishing touches on the team.
We’re still a work in progress, but the last 4 years had as much to do with where we are now as did the last 8 months.
WEll put!