Oftentimes, the development of young players comes with growing pains. There are flashes of brilliance or a run of strong play that suggests a player has arrived. And then just when it looks like the player is ready to hit and stay at the next level, a setback occurs. The Hurricanes roster is full of young players with high ceilings pretty much all of whom have had bursts of strong play but as of yet have not strung together a full season of playing at a higher level. With Francis prioritizing internal development over external help, the next leg up for the Hurricanes will likely need to be driven by at least some of the Hurricanes young players reaching a higher level of play.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a look at some of the players who have shown flashes of playing at a higher level but as of yet have not been able to sustain it for the long haul.
Sebastian Aho
Arguably as much as any other player on the Hurricanes, he projects to be a top-tier scoring forward. And he has been exactly that for short stretches of hockey. Aho’s 24 goals and 49 points in his rookie season as a 19-year old in 2016-17 were impressive in their own right when considered “for a rookie.” But across the NHL and not adjusting for potential, I would consider 49 points to be high end depth scoring and not truly in the top tier of NHL scorers. And just like in 2016-17, Aho started slowly in 2017-18 at least in terms of goal scoring. He did reel off a goal-scoring streak once he finally broke the ice with five goals and five assists in five games, but his production has been modest on either side of the quick burst. His current 59-point pace would be a step up, but I think the real question is if he can find more of the high end bursts and push to 70 or 80 points.
Teuvo Teravainen
Teravainen has been the team’s best offensive player in a number of games. He has also been nearly invisible in many others. I said awhile back that the the next level from Teravainen would not be reached by him scoring more when he was playing well but rather by him learning how to do more and be somewhat productive on the quieter nights. Teravainen still leads the team with 24 points in 32 games for a 61-point pace over 82 games, but he is not pointless in four straight games and goal-less in 13 straight games. At the same time, Teravainen has staked out a case for just being too streaky to be a top-end scoring forward and also a case for being a player on the verge based on who good he was during his hot streak.
Noah Hanifin
I have raved regularly about Noah Hanifin’s growing offensive game. He is easily the Hurricanes best offensive defenseman through 32 games. With six goals, Hanifin is currently on pace for 15 which would be a huge number for the third-year defenseman. But while his offensive is growing by leaps and bounds, the defensive part of Hanifin’s game is still a work in progress. Awhile back he slid down into the third pairing which seemed to benefit his offensive game. In that slightly lesser role, Hanifin has generally been good despite still having propensity for the occasional “train wreck” game. The latest was the Canes’ debacle in San Jose that saw Hanifin right in the middle of the big ‘oopses’ that cost the Hurricanes in that game. The question for Hanifin is whether he can boost his level of play and consistency on the defensive side of the puck to match his burgeoning offensive game.
Elias Lindholm
Suddenly 325 games into his NHL career, veteran Elias Lindholm has yet to find and maintain his higher gear. He did have an extended run that started in December of the 2016-17 season and carried through the end of the season. And his start to the 2017-18 campaign has not been horrible. But in my opinion, Lindholm has yet to reach the high level that he played at in 2016-17. That said, his point total is respectable at 18 in 32 games, he has pretty consistently been going to the front of the net and he has shown flashes. As such, he is is sitting on the fence between “serviceable” and “difference-making.”
Brock McGinn
Perhaps the dark horse and most intriguing of the bunch is Brock McGinn. I am on record as being impressed with his play in 2017-18 and underestimating him before the season started. McGinn’s 39-point pace is only that of decent depth scoring, but when one considers that he has thus far been limited in terms of ice time and is barely over 100 games played, is it possible that his step up thus far in 2017-18 is only the beginning? Or is he just reaching a solid but not top tier ceiling?
Victor Rask
Rask burst onto the NHL scene ahead of schedule after a strong prospect camp and Traverse City tourney that carried right into preseason. When his scoring increased from 33 points in his rookie season to 48 points in his second season, Rask seemed to be on an upward trajectory. But in his third season in 2016-17, he lost his way and dipped from 48 points to 45 in addition to just not playing great hockey for most of the second half of the year. He also started slow in 2017-18 and ultimately found his way to the press box. But upon being reinserted into the lineup, Rask has been better. The decision-making and strong positional play that is the core of Rask’s game is a nice foundation for an NHL center, but the burning question is whether Rask can find a higher gear offensively and climb above the level of being a serviceable third-line forward who brings decent but not great depth scoring.
If the next leg up for the Hurricanes must be driven from within, I think these six players have the widest range of possible outcomes in terms of providing reasonable depth scoring versus taking a step or two higher and becoming a high-end scorer.
What say you Canes fans?
Which of these six players is ready to break through on a permanent basis? Which are destined to just continue to be inconsistent depth players?
Go Canes!
Aho, Teravainen, and Hainfin are going to continue on their upward trajectory. Aho will be a 70-point player, probably in another year or two. TT will consistently be 60-65 (somewhat streaky, much like Skinner). Hanifin is likely to be a 45-50 point scorer for many years.
IMO, LIndholm and Rask are closer to their ceilings. I thought before the season that Lindholm might have 65 point potential. Now I get the feeling that he will be 50-55 every year. Rask will likely be 20 goals 25 assists in good years.
McGinn looks to have found a fit with Staal and Williams. The three complement each other down low. On that line McGinn is a legitimate 40 point scorer–so a solid ceiling. Though his goal scoring is likely to come in bursts.
Of course, all the players mentioned might get more points if the team can find an offensive catalyst. Regulars might be surprised to see me writing this, I have often stated that I don’t think a 1C is a huge need.
Well, I am not talking about a 1C. I listened to a couple of podcasts this weekend that talked about the “hot topic” in the NHL right now–I think the Canes should aggressively pursue Karlsson. It would undoubtedly be complicated as he probably has Carolina on his no trade list, but I think it makes sense.
The Canes could offer Faulk, Skinner, and whichever 2016 1st rounder Ottawa desires (Bean or Gauthier).
Losing Skinner would hurt. But most of his scoring is 5-on-5 and he does not generate a lot of goals for others. Karlsson would improve both special teams. Most importantly, if Karlsson wants $12.5M as a UFA, that is close to the salary that Skinner and Faulk would make if the Canes retain Skinner in his UFA year.
The other aspect that works from my perspective is that such a move would open a roster spot. Zykov would be moved up. He has shown a penchant for scoring on the PP. Teravainen could move back to his natural side. LWs would be Aho, TT, McGinn, Nordstrom. RWs would be Williams, Lindholm, Zykov, Jooris.
So back to the original post’s ideas. Adding Karlsson would significantly increase the PP production of the first unit, thus helping Aho, TT, and Lindholm score more consistently. The second unit might see an uptick with Zykov as, honestly, Skinner is not a PP driver. So Rask could score a bit more.
Karlsson’s typical season is 15+ goals and 50+ assists. Those assists would benefit all the players named in the original post. Moving Skinner and Faulk, who are pretty much the faces of the organization for the past 5 years, would be traumatic. But maybe such a move would make a clear statement about the new ownership.
Of course, this is wild speculation. I realize it is not likely. But Matt once stated that one of the roles of this great blog is to allow us to play virtual GM. This is my “in a world where I call the shots” attempt for the day.
I love Karlsson; he was a complete stud in the playoffs last year. Really the best player on the ice most games, even against PIT. I worry about the cost and term. And (see below), I’d rather bet that Hanifin is going to become our Karlsson over time.
Agree with the comments. I also see Aho, Teravainen, and Hainfin as the ones continuing to grow. McGinn has big time determination and goes to the net and is physical. He may continue to surprise us.
I would love Karlsson but as dmiller said, cost and term would be pretty tough. I would not hesitate with Faulk but adding Skinner I would not do. Skinner is streaky but he is very dangerous and other teams have to account for him.
I have given this a lot of thought and the problem with the Canes is we have all side kicks and side kick wanna b’s but no Batman. We need a Batman then everyone else gets slotted better.
Possible Batman on team in future: Aho seems like the only one to me. Skinner and TT are too streaky.
In System: Hopefully Necas but too early to tell.
So where do we find him??? Thats the Million Dollar question. We won’t trade for him as proven time and time again. Most likely we need to get lucky in Draft.
Trading several young assets for a man who has one goal while sporting a -15 with recent surgeries to his Achilles and ankle is probably not in the best interest of this team. To also pay $12.5 million is a certainly a wild idea (Ottawa would be smart to trade EK, he is not worth that kind of money). I’d rather keep our young talent and let them develop. I would only trade a piece for improvements at center ice, as golden24 points out the catalyst eventually will be Aho/Necas but we need to bridge the gap down the middle.
To Matt’s question, I think Lindholm is due to break out and stay there. Landeskog or O’Reilly upfront would be ideal catalysts for Lindy’s game long-term. So if I were to trade, it would be for a horse upfront to make our other components better.
I could offer some deep thoughts and opinions on every one of these players… But to me the most notable part of all…. The highest ceiling this season is completely contingent on…
Whomever sees more ice-time with Jordan.
Much like the preseason hype, I want to see consistent good hockey before I call this team good. To me they are still inconsistent.
Their last 3
LV in a shootout
Buffalo in OT
Columbus at home.
The first 2 weren’t anything to get excited about. Columbus is the division leader and it was a good win. BP’s strategy has Columbus’ number. We have played them very tough for 2 straight seasons. We got 10 of the possible 12 points this season.
As far as trade options: I have a strong pass on anything Karlsson. If anything I trade Ottawa Faulk to make their loss of Karlsson easier. Maybe we can get a shot at signing Stone early or get Hoffman. Let teams like NYR grossly overpay for his services to be cap constrained later.
I’ve been on the Lindholm bandwagon for a while now and I’m not ready to hop off. His season has been unspectacular but steady; recently he’s seemed to be more physically engaged and rugged which plays to his strengths. Most players, like most people in every field, don’t make huge all-at-once leaps – those usually aren’t sustainable – but sustained, incremental progress over time. I think that’s what we’re seeing and will continue to see in Lindholm over the next few years. (Remember, in a perfect world, this would only be his 2nd/3rd full season in the NHL, not 5th.)
I think Rask is closer to his ceiling here. I think Aho and TT have another leg or two up, and Aho is likely to transition to Center, which represents another step up along a different vector.
I’m surprised by McGinn, too, so I’m clearly not a good judge of him; I would say that 40-45 gritty, net-front points is huge value to the team even if the volume of points isn’t remarkable.
Noah Hanifin is really starting to come on offensively – really replacing Faulk as our most dangerous defensive finisher – and he’s got more to give over time. Maybe he won’t ever be the defensive stud that, say, Seth Jones is, but there aren’t many young defensemen who have the same level of offensive upside he does.
He has talent. He plays hard. Plays well defensively almost to a fault. He is a big tease.
Sebastian Aho: Bill Peters has said he is willing to try Aho as a centerman so I suppose Aho will get his tryout. As a center I think he’ll be 70-80 point maker given good wingers. If he stays in the wing 90-100 points is my prediction in his prime that NHL forwards reach around 25 years of age. This scenario, ofc, would be playing with an elite center and staying without major injuries. If we look at the top dozen players in points now there is e.g. Blake Wheeler having a 94 point pace and Nathan MacKinnon in 97 point pace. There’s different roads to become a top forward in the league and I am not comparing these players to Aho but if they can make it so can Aho. I would say hockey professor Aho as we call him in Finland has left his teething problems behind and there won’t be the third October without netting a goal. Point-wise he is having a sophomore slump due to a slow start that he probs cannot fix anymore this season but the future is bright and it is consistent. Aho will be a superstar in NHL. But! No one can do it alone. Hockey is a team sport.
TT: As Teukka from Jokerit, Helsinki was making his hat trick another Teukka from Jokerit, Helsinki was giving his Hall of Fame speech. This former Teukka won’t be a called into Hall of Fame I think but he will be a serviceable 60 point producer. Consistent? No. Just like ct said, more like Skinner having his streaks. And what’s the reason he hasn’t scored in 13 games? Gotta be mental. It is either that TT got infected by the overall team virus: a non-winning mentality where TT forgot to focus on his own game and only on his own game or that it is a non-winning mentality of TT himself. He isn’t used to a big success. Handling success demands training and experience. He has had the experience of success in 2015 playoffs plus the hat trick week in November speaking of NHL. For some those would be enough to establish a prevailing confidence but it doesn’t really surprise me that Teukka is still in the process of learning. Dismantling TSA line didn’t help him either. For Aho it dosn’t matter that much.
Rask: Would he be more serviceable as a winger? See this @ 00:45 https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/video/car–buf/t-277437094/c-55771303
It is some good effort there even tho no goal. Aho plays center and Rask plays wing in that clip.
Hanifin: I am so happy about Hani. Let’s remember that the D-men prime later than forwards and that said Noah will be a star defenceman for certain. The ceiling can be anything.
Lindholm: I owe it to Lindy that I am a fan of the Canes as a team and not only of the Finns. Watching Lindy last season when he was hot got me mesmerized by this team. I am patient and having hopes of him finding a higher level. Somewhat like Turbo point-wise.
Brock McGinn: I like this guy. He gives way more energy than he takes. Considering his salary he’s the real deal. I’d rather give the 1st line spot to someone else, though. Can’t say about his potential or consistency at all.
As far as “STARS” GO…none of these guys are likely to reach that level (any time soon), but Aho and Hanafin seem to be the closest IMO! The others are more likely to be mediocre to reliable 3rd liners /maybe 2nd…?
For this team to reach a concistancy that means annual playoffs I assert “WE DO NEED A TOP LINE FORWARD” (hopefully a center)!
…that is a minimum, and two would be better…
Yeah, maybe one of those guys really improves to that high quality level, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it…
I think most likely to break through on a permanent basis has to be Aho. Even though the goals are not going in he is playing excellent hockey (both ends) and generally in good position with his shots. He doesn’t have to do much or anything different and the pucks will start going in.
I think Hanifin’s offensive game is finding that consistency now – again, he is playing it consistently and starting to see the results. And if you saw him after the CBJ goal – the scorer was Hanifin’s man after the puck drop – you saw how upset he was after that play. He wants to improve defensively. But he didn’t give up – he continued to play strong and got the 1-goal lead back with his GWG.
I actually think Lindholm would take off if he was played differently – I think he is ready to become and will thrive as a center. He showed off as an assist-maker last year and I think he doesn’t have the chemistry with any line combo that has him on the wing. In fact, I think he would be a great natural center for Skinner (see dmillerdavid’s review above). But I don’t think Peters sees it that way – he knows what he wants to see, and that isn’t Lindy in center. I think only an injury to Rask or Ryan will move him there this season.
Teuvo is certified streaky. What we need, IMO, is not so much that he still contributes when he is not scoring but that someone else steps up to fill that void. But he is not a depth player in my opinion.
Brock is consistent in his rugged game – I think his point total is too streaky to extrapolate over the season and I don’t think he plays the game to consistently score. Brock is at his ceiling – depth forward who could easily be pushed off the roster next season, although he is playing hard not to.
I would love to see Rask return to his early 2016-17 season form, and I am not sure what is holding him back. But while improved from the start of this season he is now consistently “meh”.
I am surprised you don’t include Skinner in your review of consistency on the individual player level, Matt.
By the way, if you didn’t view the video that katrii posted above, take a look at Aho “centering” a line with Rask and Turbo on his wings. Peters has to go to sleep with that video clip repeating.
(0.45 mark) https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/video/car–buf/t-277437094/c-55771303
hell yeah, worth of underlining that clip 🙂 😉 😀
The current offtopic discussion seems to be about “världen’s bästa Karlsson” id est “the world’s best Karlsson”. Mark Scheifele was asked to name his top 5 players in NHL and EK was in. I see why. Listened to a hockey podcast aired yesterday; it was a discussion there whether or not Erik Karlsson will ever recover the surgery to be what he used to be. Some question marks in the air. Nevertheless he’ll be asking McDavid numbers as ctcaniac assumed. So good luck on the team that wants to gamble with him, with those millions. I see it is not the Canes to be realistic. Plus that The Canes probably are on his “list” of no trades. Great watching him tho, the number 1 d-man in the league.
I found this Mark Sceifele article. Nice reading imo https://www.theplayerstribune.com/mark-scheifele-top-5-nhl/
Aho has the highest ceiling (nice clip Katrii). He plays with a longer stick than is typical for his height, and the extra reach enables magic. Well, that and amazing skill. He needs a shot at center at some point – if he is not great in the faceoff circle pro players should be able to figure out how to switch positions during play.
Another poster (CT perhaps?) noted that Lindholm’s game picked up significantly last year when he started playing at the net. The same happened this year. If he can just consistently play there, I believe the rest of his game will follow and be more consistent. Likely the same with Rask, although that is just a hunch and not experiential or observation based.
On that note… I haven’t watched a practice since Bill Peters was hired as coach, and wonder if the forwards practice body skills playing in front of the net. It seems we start every year with no forwards playing at the net. I think Rask will be significantly better with more time in the crease also. If “forward play at the net” is a specialized skill we should add it to the coaching staff.
The exceptions this year are Commander Williams and Lieutenant McGinn. They’ve played at the net all along and their numbers represent their determination. Those guys have “sand”.
Until they show me otherwise, at this point in time I think Turbo and Hanifin will be up and down, consistently inconsistent. Gentleman, nothing would make me happier than for you to prove me wrong.