With the Hurricanes sputtering a bit of late and looking more like a team that will need to scratch and claw for every possible point just to squeak into the playoffs, I have been thinking about what it takes for the Carolina Hurricanes to suddenly be good with “good” loosely defined as being a team highly likely to make the playoffs and with a chance to creep farther up the standings than that.
I think it takes one of three things for that to happen.
1) A couple more players must emerge as difference-making stars
The Hurricanes have not benefited from an NHL Draft Lottery win that yielded a can’t miss superstar. But the Hurricanes have had enough picks within shouting distance of those slots and easily high enough to yield a star or two.
While the depth of the Hurricanes roster is improving step-wise each season, the team is really light on the type of stars that tend to drive consistent winning in the NHL. For every ‘by committee’ team like Columbus there are five regularly successful teams that have a few top-end leaders. Pittsburgh has Crosby and Malkin. Chicago has Kane, Toews and Keith. Washington has Ovechkin and Backstron. And San Jose has Thornton, Pavelski and Burns. Of the teams more recently trending upward, Edmonton has McDavid and Draistaitl, and Toronto has Matthews, Nylander and Marner.
For the Hurricanes, I think Jeff Skinner is an underrated star at least in the department of goal scoring, but I am not sure I would categorize any other Hurricanes player as a star. Jordan Staal is maybe closest but lacks the scoring totals of other two-way top 6 forwards. Jaccob Slavin might be on the cusp. But I think that is about it.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have a collection of recent top 15 draft selections who are already experienced NHL players despite still being young and have significant upside, but in terms of evaluating play and putting potential to the side, none are truly more than serviceable NHL players who fit somewhere in the middle of an NHL roster not in the higher domain of superstars who drive wins.
The list includes Elias Lindholm (#5 in 2013), Haydn Fleury (#7 in 2014), Noah Hanifin (#5 in 2015) and Jake Bean (#13 in 2016). The run of four consecutive lottery picks has yet to yield a bona fide superstar. In addition, later picks Teuvo Teravainen (#18 in 2012) and Sebastian Aho (#35 in 2015) seem to also have the potential to become the type of players that drive wins.
The success of lower draft picks Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce has helped build a blue line from within, but the next step upward for the Hurricanes will require at least a couple more higher-end players. Without that, the playoffs are still possible, but it will be hard to create a ceiling much higher than ‘could make the playoffs.’ The most likely source for another star or two is the pool of recent high draft picks who were drafted with superstar pedigree but have not reached that level yet.
2) Chemistry and cohesion helps the collective group reach a much higher level
The hockey gods have a propensity to regularly demonstrate that anything can happen in the NHL. Pretty much each and every year, a team or two rise from the ashes of the draft lottery and are suddenly a very good hockey team. Only a couple years back, Colorado was just such a team as an up and comer lead by young forwards. Of course the hockey gods then reversed course and made Colorado the worst team in the NHL in 2016-17. The Columbus Blue Jackets were reverse story. During the 2015-16 season, the Blue Jackets lost Ryan Johansen to a power struggle and were then ridiculed by everyone under the sun for hiring John Tortorella as their coach. But then in 2016-17, the Jackets road a monstrous winning streak up the standings and never looked back on their way to the playoffs.
I honestly believe that each and every team in the entire NHL has some chance of being that team that finds a strange combination of chemistry, rhythm, momentum or whatever else and being a surprise team in the playoffs.
With a number of players who show the potential for reaching a higher level on an intermittent basis, the Hurricanes are very clearly a team that could be shined upon by the hockey gods and catch fire. Early 2017-18 signs are not promising in this regard, but such occurrences oftentimes seem to come out of nowhere.
3) Ron Francis pulls the trigger on a big trade to add a catalyst
On one hand, Francis does have a growing pool of futures that he could dip into to add a higher-end player or two to the mix from outside the organization. On the other hand, the complexity and king’s ransom required for Ottawa to net Matt Duchene earlier this week shows just how hard it is to pull off these deals and also how expensive they are.
While I do think Francis will dip modestly into his futures to improve the team via trade possibly at the trade deadline if the team is within range of the playoffs, I think the odds of Francis pulling of a non-rental blockbuster are fairly low. Francis has been steadfast in building for the future and spending futures only sparingly. The most likely path forward includes more of the same possibly with a modest amount of futures being spent wisely to make additions below the catalyst level.
Netting it out
When I net out the Carolina Hurricanes situation based on what I have seen through 13 games, I think the team is good enough to make the playoffs if it catches some breaks and/or hits a hot stretch or two. But at the same time, with the parity in the NHL I also think it is very possible that the team improves slightly but still misses the playoffs again.
This ‘could’ level of playoff hopes is an upgrade to recent years but still leaves something to be desired. As noted above, I do not think Francis is likely to pull off a blockbuster deal. As such, I think the next level higher depends on at least a couple young but established NHLers like Lindholm, Hanifin, Teravainen and soon Fleury to take a leap forward and become much more than serviceable NHL players.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree with my assessment that the current version of the Hurricanes is capable of being a playoff team but not really a team who can be assured of a playoff spot without something significant changing?
2) What path or combination of paths do you think is most likely to help the Hurricanes reach the next level?
3) What are the chances that Francis does a deal to add a high-end catalyst type player from outside?
Go Canes!
We won a game we should have, against a team equally struggling. I’ll save any motivation until after the weekend stretch. Fact still remains we have a struggling offense and an atrocious power play. McKeown looked better than Faulk, and good for him! I think there can be too much over-analysis preventing some of our guys minutes, yet he only looks confident and plays with savvy (he captained the Traverse City team to a championship as well so he’s a winner).
A mid-size trade will do this team best. I would send one of Rask, Teuvo, Faulk or Ryan with some futures to a team that has a struggling young center needing a scenery change (mentioned a few yesterday). I would even call up Vegas to see what we can offer for Marchessault (playmaker) or Neal (short-term solution to show our young core how to finish and crash the net).
I think the next stretch through end of November will determine our true playoff hopes. But at any point through February if we are in need of a long winning streak to get back into the mix, I think GMRF looks at his two captains Staal and Faulk and changes the core by reaping greater returns.
Combining (1) and (2):
I think this team as it stands is definitely a playoff team…if the team would/could start to play the game the same way as it did for perhaps 2/3 of last season. The fact is that the team isn’t doing so and I am at a loss as to the “why”. We are on paper a much better team but from Aho to Lindholm to Rask – players are not getting the job done.
I do like the comment from Peters last night – there was “quantity” and “some quality” of shots. That has been the case for a while – and eventually shots will start going in.
Improvements in special teams is critical as well – again, why so different this year than last?
3) I don’t believe in the panacea of a trade – nor do I necessarily think RF, although I am sure he is making/fielding calls – is going to pursue a trade, unless something falls into his lap that he cannot resist.
As much as I’d love to see this team have a breakthrough from within it is seeming less and less likely of that occurring. We would need at least two of Aho, TT, Rask, and Lindholm to find another level for this to occur.
I am not opposed to a trade but do think that GMRF is doing the right thing in not making the wrong deal just to make a move. Ottawa over-payed for a slight upgrade in Duchene. Nashville on the other hand got a great deal, giving up a rookie defenseman, a prospect, and a 2nd round pick for Turris; that is the type of deal I would love to see the Hurricanes do.
I think it’s a bit of a stretch move but would love to see us go after RNH or Tavares. I think JVR is another interesting option. I’m not sure what to think about Galchenyuk; I’d say that one is a 50-50 on whether it would turn out well or not but I don’t have a good feeling about it.
Right now I’m ready to give up Faulk if the return is good. That would have the side benefit of fixing our two captain problem too…
1) I do agree with your assessment Matt. We are a team in the middle and will never get high draft pick. Jeff Skinner is an underrated star.
2) I do not believe RF will make any trades. I believe he would let the team fail to stay on his path. The next level will be if somebody steps up. Sad part is, nobody is becoming that star. It will be goals by committee. The only good news is we do tend to limit other teams offense.
3) The chances that Francis does a deal to add a high-end catalyst type player is very low. If we did make a trade it would be a 3rd line player who is cheap, who is doing bad where he is and who may be able to do better in a new system. RF is staying on his path. Any change would be incremental.
The problem with RF’s path is that it leads to more of the same (and eventually to Quebec).
I think TT is over rated and I am just not seeng any signs of Rask or Lindholm coming around, and Faulk is suffering from some combination of not finding his groove, not caring enough and maybe being privately unhappy with how he was leapfrogged. Whatever the reason he is perhaps our weakest defenseman right now, shots on goal don’t count unless they go in.
We have to poop or get off the potty this year. If we are to fail, we need to fail enough to have a chance at a difference maker. Without one we are not going to make the playoffs.
I’ll give RF a 5% chance of pulling off a trade (I just don’t think Carolina is a hot destination for players, sad, because I wouldn’t want to live anywhere else).
Mtl got Druin at a bargain,the Devils got Taylor Hall and Johansen (no wonder they are teraing it up) for Larsen and some futures.
I would take a chance on AG from Mt if the price is very low, it seems they have more or less written him off. Vegas are doing great and I doubt they are willing to part with players right now.
Oilers are in arudd and I am hoping for something to materialize from there.
I’m still in the Sam Reinhard for someone deal with Buffalo camp.
Of course if we could trade Faulk and Rask to the Islanders for Tavares, now that would be two tons of amazing, but I give the odds of that at around 1/4599.8 (approximately).
I predict this team is not good enough to make the playoffs as is. We are in the most competitive devission, and sit at the bottom of it.
I give us a slight chance if we shake up the personnel and catch a lucky break with call-ups from Charlotte that fill obvious team needs that are not being filled wih current players.
There is zero financial incentive to move the team to Quebec City. Their dollar is worth less, their potential fanbase (while clearly passionate) is smaller, and opening night is 100% proof that the area is still conducive to a quality hockey product.
Further, Montreal traded their best defensive prospect for Drouin, and now they have one of the worst defenses in the league, despite having one of the best goalies. Sergachev is doing pretty well in TB too. I’m pretty sure he scored against us. Not a bargain.
Please do correct me if I’m wrong here, but are their folks on this threat that are mortgage the farm (e.g. ALL that we’ve built) for one run at ending playoffless mediocrity?
Oh by the way, the Devils are on a three game losing streak, I wonder if their fans are freaking out about it?
I’m not trying to offend anyone, but why is the fact that the Hurricanes have sucked for 9 years being pinned on the current GM and roster, which is better than any we’ve had in that span? How many other massive emotional burdens do we want to strap on these kids?
I really don’t have an answer to your questions that is better than any of the conversation above. I can live with just about any and all of the ideas expressed. I’m caught in no man’s land because I just can’t make out what kind of team we really have right now. I will say I would deal Faulk if we could get a scorer (Nugent Hopkins, Neal, etc.). We have enough defensemen that we could cover the loss of Faulk. I would only make a deal for an established scorer. While those who would recommend dealing for players like Reinhart, Bennett, etc. might be right, I’m not in for giving up much to get some more projects (hope they develop into something they are not now). I think the first thing I would do is call up Wallmark and Zykov AND PLAY THEM on top lines. We can’t just putt along with 6 forwards who can’t score even 10 to 15 goals a year.
True that, Montreal’s defense is not what it used to be. They could stil backfill it with some veteran defensemen on the cheap (or they could have over the summer at least) ut they are probably up against the cap (at least they wil be when their “Pricy” contract with Price kicks in).
The Devils are on a losing streak but started the division hotter than anyone. And maybe their fans are freaking out, at least they saw a good playoff run in 2012 or 2013 that got them all the way to the finals and have two bonified superstars.
And, yes, I think this team should mortgage some of the farm to make a statement this year, to prvoe it has more talent than in years past. Talent doesn’t count unless it translates to more points in the standings, and sadly we’re clipping at around last year’s pace, even with a definitely better depth and talent upgrade on paper.
I want to see winning hockey in Carolina, not promises of winning hockey sometime in the future. we’ve heard that for too long.
Assuming we end up outside the playoffs with another #13 or 14 pick, our situation is not automatically going to improve next year. We have top defensemen coming of of ELCs and handicapping our salary situation. We hope Nichas and the Goat are going to pan out and be NHL level next year, but apart from that an improvement would have to be a product of maturing players from within the system, and as far as TT, Rask, lindholm, Ryan, Staal, Williams, Kruger and Nordstrom are concerned, I don’t see a promise of next year being better than this year.
But I agree with those who want to start by testing out some of our current depth by bringing Zykov and Walmark up from Charlotte, sit Rask and TT and see if it causes a minor shake up.
And I want RF to make a deal that makes sense, like dealing one of our reclamation forward projects for a similar project from another team with more complementary skills for our needs, or Faulk and sweeteners for a proven scorer.
However we do it, we all want to see the Canes return to glory! If the current roster can turn it around and prove me to be a nagging pessimist, I will celebrate and buy my fellow Caniacs a beer or two at a game in the not too distant future.
Fair enough. Necas is going to be awesome and I’m very excited about him, but Gauthier is looking like the biggest bust in our system right now. He’s not getting much opportunity in Charlotte, but I’m guessing that’s something he should have the ability to fix. I’ve got my hopes in Aho’s development, Necas, Wallmark, Foegele, Kuokkanen and whoever we get in return for whatever surplus defenseman we end up trading.
RedRyder we don’t always agree on much, but we definitely agree that either or both of Wallmark or Zykov are deserving of a legitimate shot. I really do think Zykov, offensively at least, has exactly the skill set that we are most lacking currently.
Also, we agree on Faulk. I think he sits as the most tradeable/expendable asset we have, in terms of ability to get high-end talent in return, while having the resources to somewhat cover the loss. That said, I would never consider trading him for half a year of 30-year old James Neal. Nugent-Hopkins is a big maybe, but I really would like consider using Faulk to help Toronto out with their defensive problems in exchange for one of their shiny young forwards.
1. No…not good enough.
2/3. RF is VERY UNLIKELY to make THE TRADE(s) to make this team good enough! We need a VERY GOOD PLAYER, OR TWO BETTER THAN AVERAGE… We have too many average (or less) guys now!
Even I am sometimes guilty of DANCING AROUND THE PROBLEM…!
Isn’t it OBVIOUS…RF REFUSES TO SPEND THE MONEY ON THE STAR THAT THIS TEAM NEEDS…these mediocre guys we get every frickin year, these cheap guys, …the definition of insanity, is doing the SAME THING (over and over), AND EXPECTING A DIFFERENT RESULT…
WAKE UP, HELLO?!!