On April 21 (before the Scott Darling deal), I took a detailed look look at the Carolina Hurricanes salary situation entering the offseason. Important to note is that I said “salary” and intentionally omitted the word “cap.” Though I do expect the Hurricanes’ budget to rise slightly this year and even more as players come off of entry-level contracts and earn raises, the fuzzy, unofficial internal budget for the 2017-18 season will see the Hurricanes significantly below the salary cap ceiling.
With a couple Hurricanes’ moves completed, here is a quick check in on the salary situation right now and also my ‘guesstimation’ for what lies ahead.
At goalie
With the addition of Scott Darling who CapFriendly shows making $4.75 million in 2017-18, the Hurricanes are currently up that amount in salary. I am on record as believing that Ron Francis will choose to buy out Eddie Lack if he is unable to trade him. If that happens, the team will pay him $1 million in each of 2017-18 and 2018-19 and therefore save $2 million of salary for 2017-18.
With three goalies: $4.75 million increase in salary.
With buyout of Lack: $2.75 million increase in salary.
On defense
The core of the blue line (Faulk, Pesce, Slavin, Hanifin, Murphy) had contracts that carried over into 2017-18. Dahlbeck’s re-signing makes 6 players under contract and expected to play at the NHL level. I am on record as thinking that there is a good chance that Ryan Murphy will be traded before the start of the season, but even if his spot reopens the financial impact would be modest with another low-salary player likely to fill the role. Right now, the biggest difference is the departure of Ron Hainsey and his $2.5 million contract in 2016-17.
With adding a seventh defenseman from within: $2 million decrease in salary.
With adding a #4/#5 defenseman from outside plus another from within: $0-$500,000 decrease in salary.
My prediction is that Francis will add an experienced defenseman to the mix and that he will shop a notch higher than the waiver wire he used last fall. I am budgeting $1.5-2 million.
Depending on if Francis adds someone, if Murphy is in fact traded and if the team starts the season with seven or eight on the roster, the savings should come in between $0 and $ 2 million.
At forward
So far, the Hurricanes have a decrease at the forward position primarily by virtue of Bryan Bickell’s retirement. His 2016-17 salary was $4.5 million. The Hurricanes have a number of depth forwards to either re-sign or replace in Di Giuseppe, McGinn, Stalberg, McClement and Ryan. But these transactions should have minimal budget impact as both the players’ new contracts and/or replacements should come in at similar salaries.
Looking at the bigger ticket items, Lindholm’s salary increases by $400,000. Teravainen’s new contract is likely to increase by about $1.6 million (assumes $2.5 million annually for his new contract). Offset by Bickell’s contract and a few other minor savings swapping out McClement, Nestrasil, etc. with slightly cheaper players, the Hurricanes are currently down about $3.5 million in salary at the forward position.
Assuming $6 million addition and possibly a depth forward: $2.5 million salary increase.
Netting it out after the Carolina Hurricanes moves over the offseason
If you grant me the addition of a $6 million forward, a $1.5 million defenseman and a $1 million forward and then adjust for a Ryan Murphy trade and Eddie Lack buy out, the Hurricanes’ opening day salary would clock in at about $58.9 million which is about $4 million more than the 2016-17 opening day roster.
There is a contingent that will clamor for spending even more, but as long as Francis makes the move needed at forward and does not get too cute/cheap filling out the blue line, that this modest budget is enough. This math also leaves him a ton of financial flexibility to add during the season or at the trade deadline and also allows for the fact that the Hurricanes have a slew of players coming off cheap entry-level contracts in the next few years.
What say you Canes fans?
Do you think Francis should up the spending further, or will you be content with the Scott Darling acquisition, one top end forward and a depth player or two?
Go Canes!
At this time, there are too many moving parts to be able to make that decision… We’ve got possible early re-signing(s), an undetermined goalie situation, RFAs, UFAs, and more…
The capspace is still huge, and at least ONE FAN–me, who will vote with his feet if some of it ISN’T USED TO UPGRADE THE TEAM!
I never said or alluded to wanting to spend every penny… but being penny-wise and pound-foolish is why the team missed the playoffs AGAIN, last year…and it cost the team a lot of revenue.
Some significant amount needs to be spent in the summer, but until we know what the team looks like, it would be prudent to wait until fall before evaluating the Canes quality-level!
Matt. I am beginning to see a method to the (your) madness. The numbers you mention fit very nicely with what you and others have been saying and the names being part of the speculation: for instance the $6 million happens to be the salary for Nugent-Hopkins or Eberle. Also, probably the number Carolina will offer if Oshie shows any interest in playing in Raleigh (though I think he will demand slightly more). Also, the math you indicate for an additional D-man lines up with the names I mentioned yesterday–Quincey or Hunwick.
Puckgod. Look at the bright side. It isn’t even the last week of May and GMRF did the biggest thing you wanted for the off-season. We have Darling. Being a GM is like playing three-dimensional chess. And that is doubly true this year with all the different possibilities with expansion.
On a final note, the more I think about it the more Eberle seems the optimal addition. He adds scoring to a position where the Canes are understaffed, His is signed for two more years. I trust Matt who spends a lot more time than most of us thinking about these things–so he might be available for less than a 1st. I can see Carolina making the deal if it is a second plus an expendable player. That makes the RW Lindholm, Stempniak, and Eberle. Excellent offensive potential. It allows the Canes another year to develop Gauthier, Roy, and Kuokkanen. And the team would still have the money/trade assets to get a solid center. Even if it is not Eberle, but another similar player, as I stated to begin there seems to be a method to this offseason.
ctcaniac…I think I am going to enlist you to write most of my June articles on building out the 2017-18 roster. 🙂
Ideal is to add a true top line scoring center to play with Aho, but there are at most a handful of those who might be available and if Sakic’s alleged asking price on Duchene is even close to right, I’m not sure I’d pay it. Meanwhile, Eberle could be really interesting. He adds another proven scorer with a low end of 45 points but upside too. The 2-year term on his contract is perfect. It fills that hole and provides time to see if McGinn or Di Giuseppe has a higher gear or if one of Saarela, Gauthier, etc. can fill that slot in 2 years. Plus the Oilers need to cut salary, so I think Eberle can probably be had for cheap (read NOT a roster defenseman and NOT a 1st round pick).
I also think that Hunwick, Quincy and a few others are exactly the range Francis needs to shop in for D. Last year he tried to get by at the waiver wire level and it backfired. What we ideally need is a veteran/proven 4/5 preferably on a 1-year deal. Such a player could slot next to Faulk if Hanifin does not seize that slot or otherwise he could provide a stable partner for someone like Fleury in the 3rd pairing.
CT – I used to think much more poorly of the Eberle option that I do now. He’s a more skilled, younger, and softer version of Lee Stempniak. It’s that last piece that has me concerned. Where does he slot in on this team. In terms of skill and production, you’d think he’d be Skinner and Rask’s right wing. But those guys need somebody who isn’t afraid to play the body, somebody who makes space. With Lindy coming into his own later this past season, he did a bit of that, but he’s really something special on the right side with Aho and Staal. So that would relegate Eberle to the 3rd line in Raleigh (he’s a pure RW). Teravainen can play center and is quite good at it if he could improve on his faceoffs. But we’d need to pair a banger with TT and Eberle or that line get pushed around pretty significantly. That’s why I believe RNH would be a slightly better fit. While he’s not a prototypical #1C (he stinks on face offs, for example), he is responsible defensively and he’s very skilled. If we roll something closer to 3 second lines, he could slot in nicely as the 3C (albeit an expensive one, but then again, Jeff Skinner was an expensive 3LW for part of last season).
I’m torn on the Eberle/Nugent-Hopkins thing. I am not sure either is quite the level I ideally want, but I’m also not sure I’d be willing to pay what it takes (likely a roster defenseman) to get better.
Nugent-Hopkins gets a significant + for being a center which is what the team ideally needs.
Eberle gets a plus (and this might sound strange) for only being a 2-year contract commitment. There is a ton of uncertainty around it, but it is not unreasonable to hope that we have a younger, cheaper better top 6 forward or 2 on the way. Two years is about the time frame where the team can definitely use help and then hope some of Gauthier, Roy, Kuokkanen, Saarela, McGinn, Di Giuseppe, etc. take a step up in two years to refill that roster slot.
Matt (and Not Opie, welcome by the way), the plus for Eberle doesn’t sound strange at all. I think the 2-year contract is what makes him the optimal choice. It is the most reasonable thing to think that by 19-20 there will be at least two younger options.
In fact, (I mentioned 3-dimensional thinking) I can foresee the Canes doing the “unthinkable” and being a seller while heading to the playoffs. Assume Eberle–so adding the 20 goals that NotOpie rightfully cites as the bridge to serious contention next year. Then in 18-19 Gauthier is having his second outstanding season in the AHL. If Carolina is 8 or so points above the cut line, it makes sense to trade Eberle–at least to a team in the West–for picks because Carolina won’t be able to afford him as a UFA with Skinner and Aho up for contracts. Thus Eberle will help the Canes make the playoffs in 17-18 and ‘pay for himself’ by returning a pick equivalent to what he cost before leaving.
Of course, it is not likely to happen exactly like this. But in any event, the Canes are likely to have some pretty good options for both RW and C in 19-20.
Matt – good points all. And I don’t disagree at all regarding the contract flexibility as it pertains to Eberle. We do want to have the ability to integrate those young guns in, should they live up to expectations and continue to develop. However, I remain concerned as to where he would slot in on “this” Hurricanes team.
My sense is that both he and RNH would flourish here, especially if either got to play with Skinner. That would increase their value should the need to move either come into play. That said, I’m of the mind that as of today (and things could always change) this team is in need of a Top 6 scoring threat and wings would be easier (and likely cheaper) to come by. If we can get either a LW or RW that could slot in on our Top 6, then the easier centerman to acquire becomes one of the 3rd line variety….something I feel is much more doable AND more likely to be able to replace what I assume will be Stempniak’s lost scoring (expansion).
You can bandy the names of different players we should add and/or subtract, but the net result should be some significant improvement to the team. One comment on the names though. When you talk about an Oshie you need to be careful. This guys shooting percentage this season was something like 24% which is about 12% above a norm. He won’t shoot 24% again in his lifetime.
Going back to all the math. I really don’t care what it takes in salaries. You point out $6 million for a (I suppose) forward. If improving this team for this coming year REQUIRES spending even $12 million on forwards to make this team a playoff and cup contender, then that’s what should be spent assuming there are players out there worth the money. The team has scrimped for 10 years and it has resulted in nothing more than a loss of fans, coaching turnovers, and an seemingly everlasting concern over saving dollars at the expense of putting a competitive product on the ice. RF is paid to make this team make the next step which is to be a playoff team. Once you get to a playoff team level, then at the trade deadline you become a player (buyer) to add player(s) if need be to make you a cup contender.
In summary, pay what you need to get the players you need NOW to make the team a playoff team. I don’t care about the dollars any more. They are irrelevant TO ME if some artificial (not having anything to do with results on the ice) constraint. RF can Spend the required amount with ON ICE RESULTS being your GOAL and you will recover it in increased revenue from fannies in the seats or he can use an OFF ICE GOAL to save money and continue down the road to self destruction.
You can say that my reasoning is easier said than done. I will say to you in return that I’m not the GM and RF is. He is also missing from the list of 16 GM’s who successfully in the past year have put teams in the playoffs. Did they spend their money foolishly? They did what was necessary. He needs, if it is necessary, to get Peter K on board. If he can’t, then all he is doing is using his reputation with the fans to sell a losing program and have my entertainment consist of worrying about whether the team spent too much.
While I think it’s a useful exercise to look at the budget for next season in isolation, constructing the roster and budget over a 3-year period is the only way to create and maintain a consistently winning team, which GMRF has repeatedly stated as his #1 priority.
That said, if we extend Slavin and/or Pesce (as discussed yesterday) in the $4/yr range, and if we extend Lindholm at the same price (a coin flip), next season’s numbers look quite different. Further, yes, we’ll have Ward and Stempniak coming off contracts the following year but will have to extend Hanifin and then deal with Skinner and Aho.
This is my way of saying that there is built-in inflation to this team’s current salary structure that we’ll need to factor into this year’s signings and trades. Not that there isn’t room – nobody but RF and owner PK know for sure – just that it’s a longer term game they’re playing.
Like everyone else, I want to see us win and believe now is the time to take a bold step forward, however I’m quite happy with the incremental progress we’ve already made this offseason and expect more to come.
We are actually quite well positioned RELATIVE TO THE COMPETITION IN THE METRO: no real expansion draft issues, money to spend / no cap issues, loaded with futures (both draft picks and a deepening prospect pool). I’d go as far to say that no team is as likely to improve as much as the Canes are this offseason.
Our posts are very similar, David. It is one of the reasons I lean away from trying to add a top-6 forward for next season.
Thank you for doing all the thoughtwork and analysis, Matt. That is a job well-done. A few comments.
We do have a couple of real constraints. One is RF’s plan to restructure the team with the intention of being a long-term playoff team. I think we all recognize and appreciate that perspective.
The other is Karmanos’ restraints on spending. For all the talk that he needs to spend more, I expect he would if he had it. He is a smart man who understands hockey having been immersed in it. He is not trying to screw the team.
If I remember right our salary level two years ago was about $62M. We shed a lot of salary after 2015-16 season (primarily represented by the contracts of Eric and Cam). We were in the position that we actually needed to take on Bickell’s contract (to hit the cap floor) just as much as Chicago needed to unload it.
I offer all that up in context.
Even though you do mentioned it, one thing your analysis misses is the impact on the 2018-19 season. I don’t see the financial flexibility you reference. Assuming that we can fill in replacement pieces for Dahlbeck, Nordstrom, Stempniak, a 6/7 D-man for comparable costs, and probably even get a credit on the backup goalie, we have 4 large contracts to be re-signed each with a raise (Lindholm, Slavin, Pesce, and Hanifin). Unless I am viewing this wrong – which is entirely possible, you have certainly corrected me in the past – this will be a $8-10M add to our 2017-18 salary. And I don’t see us carrying a $67-70M salary that year.
In my mind there is a conundrum between a top-6 forward next season and carrying forward the proven young talent on the team.
Your thoughts?
I like the way you said this and agree fully. Next year’s numbers don’t fully price-in the long-term.
One way to manage this is through trades. For example, if we wanted Duchene we could traded Rask + picks and then backfill Rask with someone cheaper. I can see the long-term math requiring us to consider stuff like this.
That is why the Eberle option seems to make the most sense–see below.
A few things….the team needs to add 20+ goals and 50+ points next year or they are gambling yet again on the playoffs. We were 21st in goals for last season. All 16 playoff teams except 1 (Ottawa) scored more than we did. If we added 20 more goals we’d be safely in the middle of the pack of playoff teams (assuming no back-sliding in other areas).
Adding that type of player is going to cost money, typically anywhere from $5 million to over $6 million per year. We likely need a 3C as well (I think TT is better at RW). A veteran bottom pairing defenseman is going to cost Ron Hainsey money – think $2.5 million to $3 million. Any way you slice it we’re probably looking at an increased cap hit. Now if you assume we can move one of Cam or Eddie and that Lee Stempniak get’s selected in the expansion draft, that buffers things a bit. But I still think, cap-wise we’re looking easily at $7-$8 million additional.
One of the big challenges when you switch from salary cap discussions to actual salary discussions has to do with signing bonuses and/or front loading contracts. We saw a bit of that with the Darling deal. Historically, one of the reasons that the Canes haven’t been big time players in free agency is a reluctance to structure contracts with a lot of up front money. Hopefully Ronnie Francis has a little more flexibility in that arena.
Now maybe Bill Peters and Ron Francis are comfortable rolling with a team that has 3 rookies on it, but I think that would be the very maximum. May guess at the lines for next season could look like:
Skinner/Rask/XXX
Aho/Staal/Lindholm
XXX(essentially a Stempniak replacement)/XXX/Teravainen
Nordstrom/Wallmark/McGinn or Di Giuseppe (one could surface as the 3LW)
Slavin/Pesce
Hanifin/Faulk
Fleury/XXX (vet RHD)
So you can see my dilemma. I think there are two faces, not currently in the organization, that will be on the opening night roster. The Top 6 scorer would preferably be an RW, but could be an LW. Lindy would move up to Skinner and Rask’s line, Aho would move over to right wing, the position for which he was drafted, and a 50 plus point left wing could be added. That means we then add a 3rd line center from free agency or via trade. That leaves the left wing position on the 3rd line as a battleground for McGinn, PDG, various Checkers (Zykov, for example), and newcomers like Saarela, Kuokkanen, or Foegele. The 4th line is going to be whatever it’s going to be. Unless they bring back Stalberg, my guess is that one of PDG or McGinn take that remaining slot.
Haydn Fleury is likely pencilled in for the 3rd pairing left-shot defenseman. The veteran defender they referenced in press conferences is likely an RHD.
That’s my guess for how this shakes out.
What’s the annual salary math on this?
Not–I think 3 rookies is not much of a stretch. Fleury looks like a good bet to make the D. And Matt and Cory here at C&C have convinced me that Foegele will be a strong 4th liner. So two obvious rookies. Wallmark is a rookie–but he will be 22 with several years of professional play. Also, Fleury and Foegele will be both be 21, so it is not like having three 19-year-olds.
I see the team like this (I differ slightly from you because Rask and Lindholm seem to click at the World Championships).
Aho/Staal/Eberle (of similar signing)
Skinner/signing/Stempniak
Teravainen/Rask/Lindholm
Foegele/Wallmark/McGinn-Nordstrom-DiG depending on expansion.
Slavin/signing
Faulk/Hanifin
Fleury/Pesce
I “break up” Slavin and Pesce because the analytics folks make a strong case that you want top performers separated to improve match-ups. This is a given for forwards since Aho an Skinner will be on separate lines.
That lineup has more scoring potential than 16-17 and arguably better D. And 7 prospects in Charlotte knocking on door.
As far as center between Skinner and Stempniak, I think there will be several that aren’t protected in the expansion draft.
This lineup looks good. Ryan might figure into this also. It would be great if we brought Stalberg back. He brought a lot.
My wish list:
– Add Alex Galchenyuk at Center (RFA) for about $5M?
– Add Brian Boyle for 4th line/depth Center (UFA) for about $2M?
– Add Justin Williams at RW for $3.8M if we lose Stempniak.
– Make a deal with Anaheim for D Cam Fowler (Ducks probably won’t be able to protect him from the expansion draft). 1 yr left at $4M.
I really like Galchenyuk. At his age he still has upside and his next contract will be a bit less ($5M sounds about right) than a few of the other options.
Fowler is an interesting name that I had not really thought about. There are a few teams that have a 4th defenseman that they cannot protect. While I think it is more likely that Francis shops in sort of a middle price range ($1.5-2.5M) of free agency, if he can get better for a reasonable price maybe he will.
Not sure what Anaheim will do. They have expansion draft issues at forward and defense, so they might be best off just living with the fact that they are going to lose something. For example, if they trade Fowler to avoid losing him and then just lose someone like Silfverberg instead, they really don’t gain that much. Regardless, the expansion draft makes for dozens of interesting ‘what ifs’.
This has turned into a wish list of players. But where is the salary math? None of what I am reading in comments works.
tj. I will try.
Let’s start with Matt’s original math that Canes have approximately $11M to spend this offseason:
Darling = 4.
Eberle = 6.
Center acquired due to expansion options = 2 (two options I see are Jarnkrok or Letestu, the former is younger and signed long term, the latter brings a little more PP production, both strong at PK, so sound option for Skinner/Stempniak line).
Additional D = 1.8 (Hunwick or Quincey, I would prefer Hunwick as he commits fewer penalties).
TT’s new contract =1.7 (addition to current salary)
Total new = 15.5
McClement, Ryan, Tennyson not resigned = 2.5
Lack (worst case bough out) = 1.7
Total reduction = 4.2
So 11.3 is pretty close to Matt’s estimate.
Again, I like Eberle due to 2-year contract. The $6M is freed up when Skinner is UFA and Aho is RFA. In best case scenario, one of youngsters (Gauthier or other) is ready late in 2019 and Canes can move Eberle at trade deadline. Worst case he moves on as UFA.
Next year is where math is really interesting. Another $15M or so needs to be added for Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin, Lindholm, (maybe) Nordstrom. The only clear subtractions are Stempniak and Ward at about $6. So not much room for adding new veterans. But if all works out with this year’s additions and prospect development, that might not be as bad as it sounds.
I get the math for this year but it impinges on next – I was more conservative in my estimate for the post-2017/18 add-on, but I don’t see the Canes carrying a $67-70M salary going into 2018/19. It just seems to me unreasonable to make the assumption that we will.
tj. I agree that the math gets much tougher heading forward. So you may be correct that it doesn’t work–if the Canes are committed to $65M or less for the foreseeable future. But if the team needs to add 20 more goals, then I think $11M is pretty much floor this year. Being GM is difficult.
It’s always good to plan ahead when budgeting salaries, but not to
the point of being scared to try and win. That obsession, paranoia
has kept the Canes from having a chance to win. That unspent money is not available for NEXT YEAR…it’s gone, along with the possibility of improving the team THEN AND BEYOND. If you err on a player selection (wrong guy, or too much money)…it’s not the end of the world, you can correct mistakes! It’s always easier to ask for forgiveness…!!
There are several player options, some possible trades (expansion draft related, or normal) free agents of many stripes… who, and how much they cost (though important)…their fit to the team is vital!
PuckGod, you and I will have to agree to disagree. Chicago is being forced to slowly and surely dismantle a dynasty because they didn’t look ahead. LA is suffering that same result. Tampa Bay is going to have a devil of a time putting their salary cap woes to bed and even Minnesota is now seeing similar pain. Good GMs look ahead while they are looking at today.
That said, I strongly believe that this is a make or break year for the Canes as it pertains to the playoffs….not so much because I am scared the team will relocate, but more because every year that attendance draws down, it will take two to bring those folks back. We need a team that consistently gets to and competes in the playoffs. That’s what I hope Ronnie is building.
So to answer some questions and some implied questions, here’s a line up that I could see the Canes icing next season.
Skinner/Rask/Lindholm
Landeskog/Staal/Aho
Zykov/Bonino/Terravainen
Nordstrom/Wallmark/McGinn
DiGiuseppe
Slavin/Pesce
Hanifin/Faulk
Fleury/Franson or Klein
Darling
Ward
In this scenario, we’re losing Lack’s $2.75 million, Stempniak’s $2.5 million, and adding Landeskog’s $5.6 million, Bonino’s $3.25 million (I’m suggesting a 3 yr. $9.75 million contract), and Cody Franson for $2.25 million (or trade for Klein and his $2.6 million salary). I think this team would have a damn good shot at the post-season and we’d still likely come in as one of the lowest payroll teams in the league. But fret not, as beginning in 2018-19, this teams payroll will jump considerably.