After a day off for the Fourth of July holiday, Daily Cup of Joe returns with a short set of notes identifying question marks and watch points for the current Carolina Hurricanes roster. The first part starts with the goalies and the blue line.
The goalie position
As detailed in my article on the Petr Mrazek re-signing, I think the Hurricanes are set in net with the possible exception of pruning to get from four goalies to three. To say the team is set is not to say that the position is without risk.
Some may forget that Petr Mrazek actually started slow in 2018-19 and that it was actually Curtis McElhinney who carried the crease early in the season. That could be worth watching. Though the Hurricanes did rebound and push up into the playoffs, much preferred would be to start better and require less heroics once the calendar flips to the new year.
If James Reimer is traded and Alex Nedeljkovic pushes up into the backup role at the NHL level, he would be another big question mark. My unscientific math says that the hit rate for successful transitions to the NHL level for even good AHLers is probably a 50/50 proposition. Even if Mrazek carries the load, the Hurricanes will still need 20-30 games of decent netminding from the backup.
If instead, James Reimer stays, he too is a bit of a question mark as a proven NHLer but coming off a down 2018-19 campaign.
Watch points/question marks: How Mrazek starts and the level of play from the NHL backup.
The blue line
The trade of Calvin de Haan with no new additions significantly decreases the depth on the blue line. The team still has four capable top 4 defensemen and three decent options to fill out the third pairing. So at a 50,000 foot level, the Hurricanes have enough players and more depth than many teams in the NHL.
But the big question is whether the Hurricanes have the right mix. Some may forget that Justin Faulk’s 2018-19 rebound came with the stability of Calvin de Haan next to him. It was only later in the season when some shuffling occurred that he played with Brett Pesce. I am not as big of a fan as Pesce/Faulk as some. The duo had issues at times in the playoffs, especially against Washington, and I still think that Faulk can still be on the edge of the cut line for quickness in today’s NHL.
In addition, Dougie Hamilton ultimately had a strong season and brought a ton to the table offensively from the back end, but he started slow and struggled early in the season. Part of this might be the transition to the new team, but Hamilton does also have a history of starting slowly.
As for the third pairing, I like the options with Trevor van Riemsdyk as a steady veteran, Haydn Fleury now with a decent run of NHL games under his belt and Jake Bean having offensive upside. In my mind, two questions exist. First, if van Riemsdyk is not ready for the start of the season, can an inexperienced pairing of Fleury and Bean hold its own early in the season. Maybe more significantly, without an extra top 4 defenseman, could the Hurricanes cover for an injury in the top 4?
Watch points/question marks: If van Riemsdyk is not ready for opening night, the third pairing is a question mark. Can Dougie Hamilton start faster? Can Justin Faulk repeat his improved 2018-19 season?
What say you Canes fans?
1) Compared to last summer, do you think the Hurricanes goalie situation is currently more or less of a question mark entering the season?
2) Do you agree with the question marks/watch points that I identified?
3) Do you have other question marks/watch points for the current Carolina Hurricanes goalies and defensemen?
Go Canes!
Last summer we went into the goalie situation with Darling/Mrazek hoping one would be average. Mrazek/Reimer sounds more solid than that. Ned will likely get some call ups competing with Forsling who’s seen some NHL time… seems likely enough that one will work out.
If Fleury is our worst defenseman I’ll take it. We used to rely on “Oh no, Corvo” as top four. Fleury been mostly solid and I think RBA not using him was more a head coach being conservative than a signal that he couldn’t make the transition to the big league. This is probably the year he costs us a couple games, but also hopefully learns how to start contributing to the team instead of just holding down the fort for a few minutes.
1) A smaller question mark—but more questions. The options are better because they don’t rely on Darling rebounding. However, adding Reimer raises the question of Ned’s role. Even Forsberg’s acquisition raises the question of the hierarchy in the pipeline as one of Helvig or Booth should get the majority of the AHL starts, but that is no longer easy to maneuver.
2) I think there is a question about goalie. Can Ned seize the starter role this season ala Binnington?
On D, the question is whether the Checkers’ first pairing from the playoffs Bean/McKeown is the default third pairing to start the season until TVR is fully healed. Pesce/Faulk is a legitimate first pairing—look at their results in February 2019 when the kept McDavid off the scoresheet, blanked Crosby and the Pens, and also shutout Dallas with Benn/Seguin/Radulov.
3) Can Bean run the first power play unit? Or were the struggles related to something other than Faulk—I ask this because I watched the Canes/Preds from early January. The Preds had a lower ranked power play than the Canes with Josi/Subban/Ellis as the D involved in the power play.
James Reimer is entering is 10th NHL season (9th full time). I don’t think you last that long in the NHL if you haven’t proven yourself. He has played on mediocre defensive clubs as mostly a 1B, with short stints as a 1A with both the Leafs and Panthers, seeing playoff action with the former. He is also a year removed from winning 22 games. I have no doubt Reimer is the penciled in 1B opening night, with about 30-35 games played. Forsberg and Ned are wild cards, in a good way, and I think this goalie competition will spark the results we need while seeing a taste of all 4 netminders.
In part due to TVR, I still think we might shop for a veteran 5-6D if his rehab is slower than anticipated. Still plenty of summer to figure this one out.
1. We have a slight overstock of goalies right now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of Reimer or Forsberg shipped out in a deal. But since Forsberg is affordable it’s quite possible that they will roll with 4 goalies to begin with. I think Ned must get an NHL chance this year, else we risk him wanting to leave, and his quality of play makes it possible that we could have a longerm #1 goalie in our system. We don’t want to let him become the next Fredrik Anderson.
On D, what about Forsling? My understanding was that he proved himself to be a capable third paring D man in Chicago and would resume that role in the Canes organization.
Was he bought out or traded, or is my impression of him inaccurate?
The D is more of a questionmark this year than last year, no doubt about it. We have top 4 D and our reliable third pairing guy is dealing with injuries. The cost has come down and we’re betting on the quality not going down proportionately.
3. Who will be the goalie coach, that question is especially important with the changing of the guards in goal coming. Ned is signed to a one-way deal next season, so he will either be in the Canes crease or be traded next season, which means he needs good coaching and a number of starts.
I believe every year there will be some question if a player can be better or has a slow start.
1) I think we are positioned pretty well at goalie. Both Mrazek and Reimer are pretty good goalies. I would not mind seeing the 50/50 split as it keeps the players rested and motivated. I would say we are in better position then last year. We got really lucky with McElhaney. No more hoping Darling will find his game again. I feel a lot better about Reimer then Darling. If one of our guys starts slow we have two more in the wings. Two very capable guys and 2 others who could step up as well.
I hated the de Hann salary dump. I believe our defense is not as good. de Hann was very important. Again, we have capable guys in the wings. I would not add to the D, I would let our present depth fight it out.
2) yup
3) I think we have sufficient upcoming talent at both positions. Let them compete for ice time and NHL jobs. There will be mistakes but they will grow into capable NHL players. I think in all cases we have guys who will fill those positions and do a good job. That is what is nice about being deep. Fleury, Bean, Carrick, McKeown, Sellgren and Forsling – somebody will step up.
I am fine with Pesci/Faulk. They were shutting other teams bid stars down.
1. Much less of a question mark with Mrazek/Reimer as opposed to Darling/Mrazek, per ct. And even more so because there is depth in Forsburg and Ned behind those two.
2. More or less good, I think.
3. It does look like we will enter next season with Faulk in the lineup but not extended. I don’t know which version will appear. I thought we were overstacked on top D last season, but of any player to move I would not have expected CdH, unless the shoulder is much worse than we think.
A Fleury-Bean pairing doesn’t make much sense because they are both LHD. If TvR is unavailable, this may be McKeown’s break. He is as close to NHL-ready as you can get for an AHL D-man.
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I have a few other thoughts I may return to later.
1) better than last year. In face, we have a log jam at goalie. Per previous comments, last year we were hoping that one guy would step up and be average. This year, we have two guys who could be above average and two more that could come in and be average.
2) goalie coach. Bales was a Stanley Cup winner coming in.
3) we have tremendous depth on left side D but a little lighter on the right. Since Pesce can play either side we should be fine though. I’m watching to see if Bean adds some muscle in the off season, his frame is a little light now to survive an NHL season.
This is not about goalies or defensemen per se.
With the Sullivan extension in Pittsburgh, it seems obvious that Vellucci didn’t move because he was “promised” a shot at head coach AND that the coach in front of him was on a short leash.
Bales was given a promotion that appears to be a promotion in name only—one that was available in Raleigh.
Williams has left open the door to playing elsewhere.
Aho signed an offer sheet.
There is a reasonable explanation for each of these such that “it is just business” makes sense. But taken together, I wonder if the culture change is not as positive as first thought. RBA turned out much better than most of us expected and the players obviously like him and each other. However, it is looking like Waddell might be as good at burning bridges as making trades.
Maybe I am making too much out of a series of coincidental events. However, Williams stating–“We built a house and I’d prefer not to move my kids again. But, listen, anything can happen. I’ve known that in this world, certainly the hockey world, your don’t really make plans”–isn’t a player with only two options, retirement or return. The almost unanimous consensus is that Williams as C was key to the culture change, I realize that doesn’t have unlimited value but it should mean Williams couldn’t play elsewhere.
Yeap, definitely too many coincidences to be pure coincidences, though we don’t know exactly what they all mean.
Hopefully we’re not the 2019/2020 version of the Sens.