Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is part 2 of 2 identifying question marks/watch points for the (current) Hurricanes roster.
If you missed it on Friday, part 1 covered the goalies and defensemen.
Part 2 covers the forwards.
The starting point is considering the forward group from the beginning of the 2018-19 season to what the team has now.
Who is in? Who is out?
As of now, out are Justin Williams (please come back!), Micheal Ferland, Valentin Zykov and Victor Rask (who started the 2018-19 season on injured reserve).
In are Nino Niederreiter who was added midway through the 2018-19 season and also Erik Haula.
Weighing the changes
At a simple level, the net is a two for two swap of Williams and Ferland for Niederreiter and Haula. On the surface that might be a modest downgrade in terms of raw production. All four of those players are capable of playing in the top 6 forwards as complementary type players.
But bigger picture for the Hurricanes is that the team was a bit light offensively at times during the 2018-19 season, and that was with offensive leaders like Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Justin Williams healthy. An injury or two to the wrong players could see the Hurricanes on the wrong side of being able to score enough after climbing in the second half of the season to 16th out of 31 in terms of goal scoring.
My thoughts
Personally, I have mixed feelings on the current group. I am on record as preferring that the team add one higher-end offensive catalyst to drive a second scoring line. That seems unlikely to happen at this point. In that regard, I think the single greatest area for potential improvement was not addressed. To be fair, obtaining legitimate first or second line offensive catalysts is difficult and fraught with high risk contracts.
There are positives too. Brind’Amour’s system proved capable of generating offense with aggressive forechecking even if it was sporadic. And there is a legitimate case to be made for the Hurricanes improving offensively simply from a young group continuing to improve.
Line by line look at the Hurricanes centers
When I net it out, I think the biggest risk/watch point for the forward group is mustering enough scoring. If I go line by line with the centers, it goes like this. (Note Haula can play center or wing, so it is possible that he slots on the left side of a different center.)
Sebastian Aho — legitimate first or second line scoring center. He better not miss significant time because the team will be hurting without him (see below).
Jordan Staal — great match up/checking line center, but measured solely for offensive production as a top 6 forward, Staal is sub-par and a minus in terms of boosting line mates production. That works fine if you can give Staal’s line a role and offset the offense with another scoring line.
Erik Haula — Especially coming off of a serious leg injury, Haula is a bit of a wild card. Further, is the the 55-point player on a magical 2017-18 Vegas team? Or is he the player who has scored at less than a 40-point pace in every other season of his career? The former could be a starting point for a decent second scoring-focused line. The latter looks like more Jordan Staal-ish depth scoring.
Lucas Wallmark — Wallmark looks good slotted into a C4 slot, as even his modest 2018-19 production is enough there. The question is whether he has a higher gear yet entering only his second season at the NHL level.
What say you Canes fans?
1) How do you feel about the current set of Carolina Hurricanes forwards?
2) To what degree do think the team can rightfully rely generically on ‘young players getting better’ to boost the offense from within with players like Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele, Lucas Wallmark and AHL reinforcements boosting the offense a bit?
3) What do you see as risks/watch points for the forward group as it stands now?
Go Canes!
1) Not great—but confident that the Canes can ice winning combinations.
2) The best teams have younger players step up. Whether the teams “rely on” that to happen can be discussed. However, Tampa was the best regular season team because Point, Gourde, and to a lesser extent Cirelli have all stepped up in the past few seasons. The same is true in Calgary with Matthew Tkachuk. It is reasonable to expect Svechnikov to exceed 50 points this season. I will continue to believe that Wallmark will increase production because he has proven it in three separate seasons in the SHL and AHL (each successive season as a pro he has almost doubled his offensive output). More production from second-year players won’t be enough by itself, but it will happen.
3) The main watch point is can Haula be a 25 goal scorer like 17-18. If that happens, then there are two scoring lines:
Niederriter/Aho/Svechnikov
Haula/Staal/Teravainen
If Williams returns then Svechnikov can play LW and Haula can either center the third line or play LW on the third line.
All the points about Staal not being an offensive catalyst are valid. However, the second line has a playmaker/driver in Teravainen. He may not be playing center, but his assist total from last season shows he creates offense from the wing.
Finally, an improved power play will go a long way to minimizing any shortcomings. Most of the other top teams had positive special teams outcomes (anywhere from +5 goals to +34 goals for Tampa). The Canes were even.
I think the team will be adding a top 9 forward, and probably waiting for cap-strapped teams to become more desperate. It’s a waiting game and likely any potential deal won’t be made until early August when other teams are hard pressed.
If Necas earns a roster spot, then the biggest question is if Williams wants to play for a lesser contract. I do not see his on-ice role as being anything more than a 3rd liner at this point. But one of these two players needs to fill a void, otherwise the team will have larger holes than last year.
Haula is the biggest wildcard for this team. If he can be a 2C and create 2nd scoring line, I think this team takes a big step forward. If he doesn’t work at 2C, I’d almost want RBA to give some guys tryouts at 2C before going back to Staal in that role (although Jordan had maybe his best couple months as a Cane when he came from injury). Could Wallmark be the 2C? Necas? Geekie? I don’t think it would be Necas or Geekie yet. Wallmark has flashes where you see it’s possible.
as the current roster is constructed we are better on necas being good walking in and that Svech and Aho will improve their numbers. I would prefer to add another RH forward to the bunch, Williams. The roster has many possibilities for line options.
2 scoring and 2 defensive
Svech-Aho-Turbo
Nino-Haula-Necas
Foegele-Staal-McGinn
Martinook-Wallmark-Maen
Balanced lineup (no weak line for matchup issues)
Nino-Aho-Turbo
Foegele-Haula-McGinn
Svech-Staal-Necas
Marty-Wallmark-Maen
In the end, adding a Dzingel, Ferland, Williams, or trade to this bunch and sliding McGinn down to the 4th line would really make it a formidable lineup.
Go, I like your second set… except
Nino-Aho-Turbo
Svech-Haula-Necas
Foegele-Staal-McGinn
Marty-Wallmark-Maen
Everyone who has contributed has ideas worth considering or noting. That said, gocanes0506 comes closest to my way of thinking. I would just add one thing. If Ferland comes back AND IS HEALTHY I would slot him on first line with Aho and Terrevainen. He scores very well when he plays with top line talent. If you don’t play him on the top line, he doesn’t score nearly as well.
Ferland is gone. He and his wife moved out of their apartment last month.
1, 3) I think the biggest question mark is Haula. Can he step in as 2C or offensive minded 3C? My “fantasy” line has him playing the role of Patrick Brown in CLT this past season centering two skilled players – Jurco and Necas there. Here I see Svech and Necas on his wings. That could be an amazing line with Haula a solid 2-way center with offensive skills.
The biggest watch point is Williams and his status. Is he in? – or is he out? Do we have a position we have to fill? Do we have his salary/cap available? Right now we have $10.4M cap for next season with 5 roster spots. While I am not suggesting we will necessarily spend up to the cap of the RFAs we need to sign (Saku, McGinn, Bishop) JW’s increment above that makes a difference in the flexibility DW has for signings or, more likely, trades with cap-strapped teams. It is getting time for him to decide – as a single guy I used the analogy of dating someone. Either you know you want to be with someone or you don’t want to be with someone. If you don’t know if you want to be with someone then chances are you don’t want to be with them and it’s time to move.
2. I see significant improvement in the wings for both Wallmark and Svech – the jury has always been out for me on Foegele who has at times been brilliant and other times a grinder, albeit an effective one. Looking to CLT I see Necas moving up and I am hoping that his improvement will translate well to the NHL in the role he worked out as a playmaking right wing. I hope RBA sees him that way. Geekie is probably a year away, and Gauthier may finally be knocking on the NHL door. Schilkey, Mattheos are a step behind them and I will be curious to see what shape Kuokk is in after a major injury. But the only RBA-style player in CLT is Bishop, so I really don’t anyone by Bishop and Necas as CLT entries with a legitimate chance for the NHL.
1) at present I do not feel we are where we need to be. I feel we downgraded on defense. I feel we are also less on the forwards. We do have the possibility of our young forwards taking a step up. It’s the hope I have but I guess that is what every team wishes.
2) I think it is very risky if we stay where we are. We do expect the young guys to grow and contribute more but I do not see them replacing 50+ points from Williams and 40 points from Ferland. Also we are not as tough without Ferland, so underestimated.
I do not see Niederreiter as a replacement for Williams as they were both part of the successful team. Niederreiter was here long enough. I view it as loosing Williams, if he retires.
My hope is we are able to add from a cash strapped team before the beginning of the season. Otherwise I believe we will not have competitive goal scoring.
3) watch points are if Williams comes back and if Haula is the 2017-18 version. And if we resign Ferland (or replacement).
I do not believe our forward group to be good enough right now.
Ice. You asked the same question I had!
I’m not sure why Ferland is still available?
Unless he has injury concerns (serious)…
I would have expected some team to sign him, by now.
We could really use his skills, muscle! IMO!
Williams is a no-brainer, assuming he wants to come back for another year?
I’m wondering if Waddell still has a trade idea in his back pocket, or two?
It seems like the team is short one finisher…?
I agree. I think teams are afraid of Ferland hurting himself and he probably wants term and high money. An undisclosed injury is always possible. He may hold out for some time until he realizes he is not going to get that monster contract. That’s the danger of free agency, wait too long and no teams have money any more money left. I wish we can get one more serious forward. Verdict is out on Necas for me. Not sure he is ready, yet.
1. I like the potential on the forward lines. Haula is a significant upgrade scoring wise. His even strength scoring stayed consistent between MIN and VGK, but he was used on the PP in Vegas and scored 15 goals in response to the opportunity.
2. Svech should be counted on to produce more.
Foegle might be a bit more productive, but I think the ceiling is relatively low.
Wallmark probably puts some things together and finished a few more this year.
I’m of half a mind that Necas and Gautier on a line together could be a huge upgrade in secondary scoring. It’s quite risky having two rookies on the same line, but Gautier was the finisher to Necas’ playmaker. Can Staal be the defensively responsible center that makes helps them bring the AHL chemistry to the big league?
3. Can this team build on last year’s momentum? A strong preseason and solid October unraveled pretty quickly. Is this group able to find way to keep that fire all season long?