Right about when his college season was ending, word seemed to be on the street that defense prospect Adam Fox would not be signing with the Hurricanes. Initially, it was not clear how valid that speculation was, but today verified that it was in fact true.
In late March, I wrote in some detail about the Adam Fox situation. You can revisit that article HERE.
The return
For Fox, the Hurricanes received a second-round draft pick in 2019 and also a conditional third-round draft pick in 2020 if Fox plays more than 30 games in 2019-20. I think the return was a good not great one considering that signing him did not seem to ever be an option. With the Rangers finishing near the bottom of the NHL, the pick is the 38th overall pick. Ideal would have been to collect full value and get a first-round pick in return, but knowing that he had to be traded, the Hurricanes lacked leverage.
Adam Fox
Fox is a high-end prospect. Early in the season, he was considered a top 25 or 50 prospect. After a tremendous 2018-19 college season, he maybe boosted his ranking. So no doubt he is a high-end prospect. But when acquired, he was available because the Flames could not get him signed. And now that starting point has transitioned to New York, with the Canes unable to sign him and collecting what they can. So he came and left as a really high grade prospect but not necessarily one that the Hurricanes would be able to sign.
His game is a bit like Jake Bean’s as a cerebral offense-leaning defenseman. He can both score goals and create scoring chances with his playmaking, and he is a bit undersized not really a standout in terms of skating ability.
The Hurricanes blue line prospect pool
The trade leaves the Hurricanes a bit thin on the back end in terms of prospect. Jake Bean is having a solid first professional season in Charlotte and tracking toward becoming an NHLer. But past Bean, the Hurricanes are light on defense prospects. Roland McKeown probably rates second on the team’s blue line prospect pool. Past McKeown, the Hurricanes have only an interesting collection of late-round picks.
But the Hurricanes are deep on defense at the NHL level. The current group has Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Calvin de Haan signed for three years minimum. Justin Faulk and Trevor van Riemsdyk are signed through next season. And Dougie Hamilton has two years remaining on his current deal. Haydn Fleury has also proven to be serviceable at the NHL level. The result is that the Hurricanes are deep in terms of proven NHLers and maybe will not need a ton of prospects.
Evaluating the series of two deals
Despite the fact that the situation did not work out as desired, I generally like the way Don Waddell handled this situation. He was a high-end addition to the Dougie Hamilton trade. The Hurricanes seemed to do what they could do if they signed him. When that did not pan out, Waddell moved quickly to net a return for Fox. At the point where Fox says or implies that he will not sign with the Hurricanes, Waddell moved quickly. I generally like his assertiveness adding Fox and then later losing him. But the two draft picks add to the Hurricanes’ total, and give the Hurricanes extra picks for the next round of the playoffs.
What say you Canes fans?
1) When did you first expect that Adam Fox would not sign with the Hurricanes?
2) What are your thoughts on the return?
3) Do you have any other thoughts/opinions on the Adam Fox situation?
Go Canes!
As far as the deal goes I think the Canes did as well as they could expect with a player that would not sign with them. A second round pick plus potentially another second round pick is pretty good. Why would they get a first rounder for an unproven prospect? The obvious comparison is Jimmy Vesey. Would you give a first round pick for Vesey right now? I wouldn’t, so why give one for Fox?
As a prospect Fox is intriguing, but no slam dunk. I was only able to watch him on TV a couple times this year, but those that compare him to Cale Makar are way off. He does not have Makar’s skills or skating ability. He probably has similar smarts to Makar, but that’s only 1 out of 3. Will Fox be able to handle the speed of the NHL? Only time will tell and to say absolutely yes is naive.
All in all a good trade for the Canes. Hopefully they get a nice player with that second rounder this summer.
Everything about the players behavior smells like tampering to me. Somebody at the Rangers had to have told him, just hold out, tell them your not ever going to sigh and this will work out. It all just didn’t happen.
Not sure why the Rangers would need to do that. Jimmy Vesey created the template. On the other hand I’m sure the Rangers have been in touch with Fox’s representatives. If Fox doesn’t sign and play with the Rangers this coming season I would be very surprised. That would be some egg on the Rangers GM’s face! It may be technically tampering, but who’s going to complain? In this trade everyone wins.
Off subject: Regarding Dustin Tokarski the Checkers back up goalie.
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/04/several-swedish-teams-interested-in-dustin-tokarski.html
His time with the Checkers will serve him well n Europe.
This is a great return for a player who wants to control his future and doesn’t want to sign here. I think we get too caught up in the value of 1st rd picks. Statistically it needs to be a top 10 or even top 5 pick to really make a difference. I think Eric Tulksky wrote about this before joining the Canes. Basically, there’s almost no difference between the 50th pick and the 15th pick.
A lot of analysts across all sports says that the best way to find good prospects is not necessarily have higher picks but to obtain more picks in the top few rounds – because it’s all such a crap shoot.
I have no ill will towards Fox. Just in the same way college QBs are transferring in droves now. They’re all doing what’s best for them and doing it within the rules of the game. If it were my son I’d tell him the same. These orgs have no allegiance to the players and could trade them away at any time.
2) I was pleasantly surprised by return. Second round picks can turn into good players.
My only add would be that from what I have read from several sources the Canes do have one diamond from late round D selections. Jesper Sellgren is apparently much better than a sixth rounder. He may just be an NHLer in 2-3 years.
I felt when we first received his rights that he probably would not sign. We have a very strong defense and more coming with bean. He wanted to be immediately in the NHL. He would have to fight for a position here. He could just wait and then pick a team where there was little competition. This is not surprising.
The thing about prospects, is they are prospects. There are no guarantees. Fox has a high ceiling but the NHL is no free ride. Time will tell. I agree, kind of hard to expect a first round pick for a prospect.
I think we did the right thing. He must have told the canes he would not sign. He would have been a nice addition (who would have to earn his position) but no point in messing around with somebody who will not sign. I hope he does sign with the rangers and gets us 2 second round picks. I think everybody wins. Not a bad trade. Much better then nothing.
It appears to be a place he wants to go. These young guys want the big NY city. They forget their time will be burnt training, not having the night life, if they expect to get anywhere.
I just remembered something. Fox is from NY, so there is a good reason why he may wish to be there.
After being so certain early that Fox was going to sign, the GM staff made a great move with this trade. We will definitely get quality if our draft scouting is good. As Sara Civian wrote, we are in second round of the playoffs and have a forst and 3 seconds in June’s draft. Columbus can’t say that!
We took a swing and didn’t connect.
He is not going back to Harvard – he will get in the NHL next year with the Rangers.
This trade is a win for Fox, NYR, and CAR.
Like I said on another topic, I think it’s a pretty acceptable return.
The Canes have had much more success in the second round than the first, (Svech is an exception but he was a top 2 guy, so he doesn’t count).
In fact, the first round success has been abysmal whereas the second round success has been top of the league.
The Canes ended up with Hamilton, Ferland a 2nd and a third (maybe upgraded to a second) for Hannifin and Lindholm.
I would’ve liked to keep Lindholm but I think Hamilton + a second was well worth the trade.
Ferland was phenominal from start of the season into Feburary. I hope his recent troubles may present a bit of a discount so he could be resigned for something reasonable, he was a great add to the Canes roster and we need players who peak early to balance out all the other players who tend to peak late.
Good luck to the kid, except when he plays the Canes.
I agree that the rules should be changed to give teams extended ownership over college players’ rights.
I think the team should own the player’s rights until a year after graduation.
Why?
It’s unfair on the team to potentially lose the rights to a college player for nothing.
It’s unfair on a kid who is going to college to be pressured into dropping out, the team has to pressure him because else the team may lose his rights for nothing.
I think having the team own the player’s first year after graduation addresses both problems, makes the players’ rights more predictable and valuable and stops encouraging kids to drop education in favor of a pro sports career.