Every off-season teams try to make improvements via trades and free agent signings. But the greatest upside, especially for young teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, is when a number of existing players together find a higher gear.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a quick look at a number of Carolina Hurricanes players who meet the criteria of being young and with upside but now having to NHL experience to leverage to potential make a leap upward.
Andrei Svechnikov
Touted as a front-runner to compete for the Selke Trophy, Svechnikov had a so-so season at least based on those lofty standards. But along the way he did collect 20 goals and also show flashes of the skill set that had him pegged as a high-end scorer. No doubt, his ceiling is much higher than his modest 2018-19 production. Will one year of NHL experience serve as a spring board, or will Svechnikov develop gradually over a few years?
Warren Foegele
Foegele played like he was shot out of a cannon in preseason and then did so again under the brightest of lights in the playoffs. If pressed to pick a single player who pulled the Hurricanes back into the series against the Capitals after being down 2-0, I think Foegele gets the nod. But in the middle, Foegele played the part of a capable low-scoring fourth-liner and not much more. Will the playoffs be the beginning of Foegele finding a higher gear as a player who can regularly be a difference-maker? Or was that just a quick random burst?
Lucas Wallmark
Wallmark quietly had an incredibly solid even if maybe unspectacular rookie season. He first stepped into the lineup when Victor Rask was injured. And then at the midway point, he rose significantly higher in assuming much of Jordan Staal’s match up line responsibilities when Staal was on the shelf with a concussion. Wallmark ability to play competent two-way hockey that was well ahead of his experience level in itself was enough to make him a valuable depth forward. The question is whether with a year of experience he can find a higher gear offensively than his checking line-ish 28 points in 2018-19.
Martin Necas
Necas would have made this same list last season, but after a slow start at the NHL level, it became evident that he just was not quite ready yet. His demotion to the AHL was a modest disappointment, but his rebound and strong play in Charlotte rejuvenated optimism and boosted him back onto a potential break out list for the upcoming season. What concerned me most about Necas NHL stint in 2018-19 was not the fact that he was a little rough around the edges defensively and without the puck. That was to be expected. What was concerning was the fact that he was also a non-factor offensively. His surge at the AHL level featured a move to wing where Necas could just attack with a little less responsibility. He figures to audition as a wing in preseason. Can he transfer his AHL success to the NHL level and have a break out season in round two during the 2019-20 season?
Haydn Fleury
The 2017-18 season saw Fleury maybe in a bit over his head pushed up into the top 4 for a chunk of his rookie season. With part-time duty in 2018-19, Fleury settled back into a #6 slot, and that looked to be about the right level for him. He played a conservative brand of hockey that mostly steered clear of big mistakes but was also completely lacking in terms of any thing dynamic offensively or otherwise. As such, he was a competent #6 or #7 but not the type of player who was driving wins. Many say that defensemen need NHL run time before they can mature. Is it possible that Haydn Fleury has built a solid foundation and is ready to take a big step up in 2019-20?
Jake Bean
Similar to Necas, Bean would be another player looking to extend a strong 2018-19 season in the AHL to the NHL level. The bottom of the blue line is a bit crowded with other players not being waiver exempt like Bean, so there is a good chance that Bean starts the season at the AHL level. But in the long run, NHL ice time is earned by level of play. In that regard, Bean has a ton of upside offensively and has the potential to boost a power play that struggled in 2018-19. If the Hurricanes hit some injuries, Bean is likely to garner some NHL ice time. When he does, will he be the type of player who seizes it and never relinquishes that role?
Alex Nedeljkovic
Per my Daily Cup of Joe from Friday, my best guess is that Alex Nedeljkovic will start the year in the AHL if everyone is healthy. But the team should have an incentive to get him a set of NHL starts in 2019-20 such that if he is recalled for an injury, the goal should be to get him some NHL action. Jordan Binnington with St. Louis is a reminder of what a young goalie can sometimes do as is Cam Ward from Carolina Hurricanes past. With no NHL track record yet, Nedeljkovic is a wild card, but his pedigree and strong 2018-19 season at the AHL offer potential for a break out season once he draws into the NHL lineup.
What say you Canes fans?
Which of these players do you think will have break out seasons in 2019-20?
Go Canes!
I think the only player poised for a breakout is Svech. And I actually think it is highly likely. He played so much better the second half of last season (including largely eliminating his stick penalties) and the fancy stat for “5×5 Unblocked Goals (for)” was the best in the league, indicating his support on the offensive side was elite.
I think Necas and Bean will both flashes of what they are capable of but will spend time adjusting to the NHL game (as Svech did last year).
I expect Wallmark will show solid improvement next season – as one of the regular posters here has sommented he has done that every year he has played. But it won’t be “breakout” improvement.
And Foegele is the enigma. I don’t know what his game exactly is – and I think it will depend on the role he is given to play. He has great offensive upside and showed flashes of that last season.
And I should add comments about Ned and Fleury.
I think both are in the “show me” state but in different ways.
Ned has to show his AHL game translates consistently to the NHL – his two appearance at the NHL level suggests he has potential, but I don’t see this is his year to “breakout”; unless injuries at the NHL level pave the way for him. He could be this year’s Binnington…or last year’s Sparks.
Fleury has to show whether he can stick with the big club and leverage where he is strong – puck movement in the D-zone and the rush – to regain the confidence of RBA. He expressed frustration with his limited ice time when he turned to CLT after the Canes’ playoff run ended. He is a great guy – my daughter and I have talked with him a couple of times. I hope he has a strong year – although even a strong year probably isn’t a “breakout” year.
To me, what is more interesting than trying to pick which of these players will “break out” next season is that fact that there are so many candidates – and this list doesn’t even include Aho and TT who are both still young and have not hit their ceilings yet.
The shear volume of young players who will obviously improve from here gives one hope that this team has more to give over time with the right leadership and with the right coaching.
raleightj, IMO you have summed up my feelings about each of these players. Not much I can add. I would like to reiterate that I believe Fleury will step up this year and show he is a bonafide NHL defenseman.
Before we try to predict which of our young studs are going to break out and which are not, we need to put things in perspective.
Perspective? You betcha.
I don’t know if it is possible for two coaches to have more different coaching styles as well as two diametrically opposed systems of play than Roddy and Captain Queeg.
Part of that included the team captain problem.
Then there was the Cane Mutiny.
Then there was the ownership change.
Then there was the culture problem that made it necessary (in the new owner’s mind) to jettison Skinny and to trade away some key players as well as to let others walk as UFAs.
Then there was the changing of the guard in the GM’s office.
Trauma.
That is the best word I can think of to describe what must have taken place in the young innocent impressionable mind of each player on the team.
Captain Queeg is a terrible coach. When he moved to Calgary and I saw that James Neal had signed with Calgary, I quipped on this site that i would give anything to be a fly on the wall in that locker room. Neal didn’t have a bad year, he had Captain Queeg dragging him down.
But i digress.
I look at last year as a 1/2 season recovering from Queeg and learning to trust Roddy and his new system, then a half season learning how to win.
This year will be different yet. They will be somewhat looser as they will know what to expect from themselves as well as each other.
They will trust Roddy because they know that he is real. They know what he expects from them. They know that he is fair.
The learning curve is not yet complete. Our power play needs a lot of work. Our goalies (whomever they might be) will have to learn to play in Roddy’s system with the personnel Roddy ices at the season’s start.
Key personnel have changed. We will have a new goalie coach. The Checkers have a new head coach. Many Checkers players have been replaced.
This might sound like nit picking, but the trauma is very real. Certainly, the impact on each player will be unique to him. Roddy and his merry band of assistant coaches will need to be ready for anything. Will Willy be a part of the team? If not, will our two Jordan’s have what it takes to pick up the mantle of leadership?
I know that there are those who would prefer to not look at the messiness of the human aspects of these players, but if we want to be reasonably accurate in handicapping these players, we must.
I certainly had an epiphany with our Haydn’s future, when I had to consider the possibility that his progress has been retarded by his time playing under Captain Queeg, as well as all the aforementioned traumas.
This year will certainly be one of surprises. Variables. Changes.
I can’t wait.
Personally, I see Svech making the “biggest” breakout this season. How much? I don’t know (obviously), but I think he will grow more into the hype.
Necas will likely have a year like Svech did last year, where he is tutored and brought along, and that will be by design. He will have a solid “first” full year, but you know he is capable of doing more.
Foegele has the opportunity to make the biggest jump from this year to next. Much of it will depend on where he is put. He has the potential to score more, but it depends on where he is put or how he is used.
Hard to say about Wallmark, as it it depends on his role. He impressed this year, imo.
Bean and Ned depends on opportunities and time with the NHL club.
The one I could see making an unexpected or surprise jump is Saku. Again, depends on the opportunities. At this point, I think he would just be spinning wheels back in the AHL.
Svech will score more goals, just not sure if it will be closer to 25 or 35 this year. Because 35 should be his “typical” season for many years.
I am the one who has pointed out that Wallmark’s production increased 80% in each of his subsequent pro seasons (from season 1 to 2 then 2 to 3 in the SHL and from 1 to 2 in the AHL). In fact, his 22-year-old season in the AHL was among the top 40 of all time on a points-per-game basis. He is on the list with names like Danny Briere and Mike Cammalleri, or more recently Jake Guentzel and Max Pacioretty. I am not arguing he will ever be a 30-goal scorer or 65-point producer, but I think everything in his development suggests 45-50 point ability. I would expect he has at least 35 points at 5-on-5 this season and 45 points if he gets reasonable power play time.
Speaking of which, I think Bean could break out if he is given time on the first power play in the pre-season and proves he can handle it. One of the reasons the Canes struggle is because they don’t have a defenseman racking up assists on the power play. Most of the better PP units in the league have a d-man with 15-25 assists. For the Canes Hamilton had 5, Faulk 4 and Slavin 2. I find it hard to imagine that Bean couldn’t top those numbers playing with Aho/Teravainen/Svech/Niederreiter.
I agree with gso and tj that Necas will have an adjustment year.
I also agree with dmiller in that both Aho and TT could produce more—again a big part of that will be an improved power play. If the first unit is more productive, then 90 points for Aho and 80 for TT is reasonable.
Forgot to add my thoughts on Foegele. I am not sure he has a lot of offense. By that I mean he creates many of his chances/goals through forechecking or fast attacks off neutral ice turnovers. In Charlotte he scored 28 goals—almost half (13) were in just 6 games. He is definitely streaky due to the fact that if the game becomes less disciplined he is likely to thrive. Even in that strong season in Charlotte he only had 18 assists. Again, he is not a possession winger. I think a comparable player is Blake Coleman. I mentioned to some Canes fans that I thought Foegele’s upside was Coleman and they thought I had a “limited” view because they thought Foegele had 20-goal capability. Yet, last season Coleman had 22g/14a. That did include some PP time due to injuries, where Coleman actually scored 3 goals. If Foegele can score 19 even strength goals, I would consider it a breakout season.
Thinking about Foegele brings me back to an argument I have been making for 2 years. The Canes now have the talent to relegate the line numbering system to the trash heap. Instead, they should ice four lines based on 2 scoring-focused lines, an all-purpose line, and a disruption line. As the roster stands now, I would suggest:
Niederreiter/Aho/Svech (scoring)
Dzingel/Staal/Teravainen (scoring)
Haula/Wallmark/Necas (balanced)
Foegele/Martinook/McGinnn (disruption)
Maenalanen as 13th.
I know DW has stated that Haula is viewed as a center. But I have been re-watching some games. For instance the game against Toronto is notable because Wallmark wins several battles with Tavares based on positioning and physicality. With the offensive upside I mentioned, I think Wallmark is the ideal center for Haula and Necas. One of those two would always be a threat to create a breakaway while Wallmark was being defensively responsible down low. Even though a line like Foegele/Haula/Necas would be faster, I don’t think it is as balanced. Plus I think Foegele/Marginook/McGinn combine enough speed and extra physicality such that they could prove difficult for any of the oppositions’ lines.
Foegele and Wallmark’s production ultimately will depend on their slotting. 4th line duty will hold down their offensive production.