I will save Martin Necas for another article (probably tomorrow’s Daily Cup of Joe) since his situation has so many angles to it, but today’s Daily Cup of Joe will look at what it takes for each of the other 10 players still in training camp to make the opening day roster.
I put the players still in camp but at least originally slate for the AHL or elsewhere into two categories. Based on my estimation,
Players potentially competing for NHL roster slots
Trevor Carrick
Most of the conversation around Trevor Carrick hones in on his battle with Haydn Fleury for the sixth and final defense slot. I actually think his work order to start the 2017-18 season at the NHL level is much simpler. Whether or not he can beat out Fleury, I think Carrick simply needs to finish the preseason strong such that Ron Francis cannot risk losing him on waivers. If Carrick does that, I think Francis will at least start the season with eight defensemen including Carrick to avoid losing blue line depth for nothing.
Phil Di Giuseppe
At this point, for Di Giuseppe to make the opening day lineup. I think he needs to have a huge game (if he gets the chance. Otherwise, I think he is destined for Charlotte to start the 2017-18 season. He would need to clear waivers to do so, so there is at least a chance that he gets claimed and plays somewhere else for 2017-18.
Janne Kuokkanen
Kuokkanen is the first of three forwards (plus Martin Necas) who could be in the mix if a top 9 wing slot opened up. With Stempniak still out of action, that just could happen. After ceding the prospect buzz to Martin Necas over the past two weeks, Kuokkanen stepped up with a huge game in Edmonton on Monday night. He finished with a goal and two assists and demonstrated an ability to generate offense. If Stempniak is healthy on opening day, I think Coach Bill Peters is most likely to go with the lineup that Ron Francis built rather than taking risk on a younger player right out of the gate.
Aleksi Saarela
As a wing with goal scoring capability, I think the door is cracked open ever so slightly for Saarela to put up one more huge game offensively and earn at least a short regular season audition at wing if Lee Stemniak remains out of the lineup. Most likely, though, Saarela starts the 2017-18 on a scoring line in Charlotte and makes his transition to North America at the AHL level.
Lucas Wallmark
I think Wallmark has made a strong case for himself in preseason as a steady, all-around centerman. If Marcus Kruger was felled by injury, I think Wallmark would be a no-brainer for that slot, and I think any injury at the center position brings him into play. But if the set of four centers is healthy in two weeks, the odds of Wallmark stealing someone’s slot for opening day is virtually zero.
Valentin Zykov
After sitting out the first three games of preseason while practicing but maybe not cleared for game action, Valentin Zykov had a strong debut with a goal and an assist on Saturday night. I put him with Martin Necas, Janne Kuokkanen, Phil Di Giuseppe and Alesksi Saarela as players who could compete for Stempniak’s slot if it becomes available.
Players still in camp for a specific reason but not really (in my opinion) competing for NHL roster slots
Jake Bean
I do not see him as still being in camp because he is still being considered for an NHL slot. Rather, without the ability to step up to the AHL level because of age, I think he is still at the NHL to play as much as possible against higher-end competition before returning to juniors where he will be a veteran.
Jake Chelios
My best guess is that Jake Chelios is still in training camp because he is the only veteran AHL defenseman who has yet to see game action. At best, he is #9 on the defenseman depth chart right now and not really in the mix for an NHL slot.
Nicolas Roy
Peters stated that he wanted to get Nicolas Roy into an NHL game. I think that is why he is still in training camp. But with ice time comes opportunity. I think the door is still cracked open for Roy if he has a HUGE game in his first preseason action, but odds are that he plays in Charlotte.
Jeremy Smith
Plain and simple, it takes an injury to Scott Darling or Cam Ward. He is 100 percent slotted for Charlotte if Darling and Ward are both healthy and ready to go on opening night.
The upshot
If they are healthy, I think Peters has a reasonably strong bias toward icing a team with NHL experience. If it becomes clear that Lee Stempniak will not be ready for the NHL regular season, I think the battle for his roster slot will be an entertaining one.
I will follow up with similar but more detailed thoughts on Martin Necas’ situation likely tomorrow.
Go Canes!
A few comments:
1/ Agree with your analysis. The final forward spot looks like it’s going to be a very difficult decision. I don’t envy BP at all. I might lump McGinn into the PSG bucket since all the prospects bring more offense, but he’d be more expensive to demote since he’s on a one-way contract and would probably get claimed. His game seems to resemble Nordstrom’s the most, and maybe the two of them are really competing for the same spot.
2/ I had not really seen Janne Kuokkanen or Martin Necas play live against NHL competition until last night. Kuokkanen looked way better than I expected. He obviously had a great game and just oozes talent – that pass to Staal was nasty. If he starts the season in CLT, I bet he finds his way to Raleigh before the season ends. Necas is fast and all over the ice but couldn’t quite make anything happen. Maybe it was just one of those games, but this has been the repeating story-line for him; I think he may need another year before he’s truly ready.
3/ Noah Hanifin looked extremely composed and very solid without any moments of being flustered. It’s a one-game sample size, but his game seems to be further along, which is obviously a very good sign.
4/ EDM is supposed to be one of the fastest teams in the league but they were slow in comparison to us last night. Hard to tell whether we were just really good or they were just off their game – probably some combination of both – but other than the one play where Nordstrom took the hooking penalty on McDavid, they didn’t get behind us or have any real odd-man rushes.
The net-net is that all our options to fill the last spots on the roster are good (for a change). There are no gaping holes on the roster like in years past and there’s quality behind them in the case of underperformance or injury.
Oh, and why couldn’t that have been a regular season game? We were dominant.
dmiller. Related to Hanifin, I was mostly alone in thinking Pesce and Slavin on different pairings made sense. One reason is that Pesce appears to improve his partner. This goes back to the strong link argument. The preseason has indicated that Tulsky might have BP giving the concept a try.
Tomorrow will be a real test. If the 1 and 2 pairings are the same it will be informative if the Canes can again slow McDavid and company. I expect the Oilers to be focused after last night.
I may be the only person feeling this but I hope GMRF has a trade up his sleeve that makes room for one or more of these kids. I think they have earned it.
I was a big fan of Kuokkanen at the end of last season, and he was one of the players I thought, prior to the preseason, could very well end up on the roster. After the summer, with the emphasis on NHL talent, I thought that even a preseason injury wouldn’t let a prospect make the team – I thought either McGinn or even PDG would get the nod.
But last night Kuokkanen showed what he can do in the NHL as a wing. I have to think he has earned another preseason game and I think has played his way into a roster spot on opening night if Stempniak hasn’t recovered. And even if Stempniak has recovered he has already missed all of camp and most of preseason. What are the odds he starts the season on rehab in Charlotte?
There is an opening and Kuokkanen seized it in a way none of the others have.
Wallmark has been solid and I think is NHL ready, but you are right – only an injury at center opens a spot for him.
I was hoping for more from Saarela than I saw last night. I think even one good game won’t make him a keeper.
Zykov has one more game in him at this level for evaluation and more experience. And I think you are right about Roy and Chelios – they are here to get an NHL preseason game in before the games count.
I would disagree that Wallmark should not be considered for RW on third if Stempniak is rehabbing. BP emphasizes face-offs and defense. So Wallmark makes as much sense as Kuokkanen or Necas–as the Skinner post recently mentioned 53 seems to work best when his line mates don’t need the puck on their stick. So Wallmark centering Skinner at LW and Ryan at RW should work. The line has two players who can take draws plus Wallmark can play on PK.
I would love to see the combos of Skinner-Wallmark-Ryan and Aho-Necas-Lindholm in a game. To me there would be a lot of information in both. And I would also be interested in a Skinner-Ryan-Necas line.
Although Necas has not generated offense this preseason, he also hasn’t played with NHL players on his line. I think that is important to try.