Who else was thrilled to wake up on Wednesday morning and see the Hurricanes not in a wild card slot but instead up to third place in the Metropolitan Division?
The standings can and will change quickly with even a short winning or losing streak given how close the teams are, but that is still a great position to be in after game #63.
In that vein, today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a look at the situation and competition for winning a playoff berth.
The situation/standings
In the Atlantic Division, the Lightning, Maple Leafs and Bruins have built a fairly sizable gap over the next group which is led by the Canadiens. In addition, the Sabres are still on the fringe of the playoff chase but are now 7-9 points back and trending in the wrong direction. Certainly the Sabres could climb back into it, but for right now I am counting only the Canadiens among the teams competing for the wild card slots.
In the Metropolitan Division, the gap is smaller. The Islanders and Capitals are the top tier right now though they are only up 4-5 points which makes them vulnerable to being caught by the pack with any losing streak. But for right now, I will count them as the top tier for the division. Below them, the Hurricanes, Blue Jackets and Penguins are in the thick of the playoff hunt. Below them, the Flyers are 6-7 points back. At least for right now, I am going to group the Flyers with the Sabres as a team that is not quite in the hunt right now.
When one nets it out, Montreal, Carolina, Columbus and Pittsburgh are competing for three playoff spots. That is significant because the Hurricanes do not need to beat out a certain team. Assuming no new entrants from below the Hurricanes just need to beat out one of the other three teams.
The competition
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens are the team stumbling the most right now with only a 4-5-1 record in their last 10 games. The Canadiens added at the trade deadline but only depth type players. Montreal has a favorable schedule short-term with six out of their next nine games against teams not in the playoff chase, but the team does have a tough ending run for the 2018-19 season.
My 2 cents: The Canadiens have been mostly treading water of late as the Hurricanes swim up and hopefully soon past them. I think they are prone to continuing to struggle.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins are a respectable 5-3-2 in their last 10 games but have been unable to find any kind of real rhythm to vault up to where they usually are in the standings. On the one hand, one could figure that eventually elite players like Crosby and Malkin will lead the way upward. On the other hand, this team is 64 games into the 2018-19 season and has yet to really find a higher gear. The team did improve with the early addition of Nick Bjugstad, but added only aging depth for the blue line.
My 2 cents: The blue line and goaltending have been suspect for the Pens making them vulnerable.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets are a respectable 6-4 in their past 10 games. But the team is significantly different after an aggressive all-in trade deadline that saw the team add top-tier rentals Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel. The Blue Jackets are a significantly better team on paper than they were a couple weeks ago, but the question is whether they can find the chemistry and cohesion quickly.
My 2 cents: I think ultimately Columbus’ aggressive trade deadline provides enough additional fire power to push into the playoffs.
Looking inward
No doubt, it is the time of year for scoreboard watching. But all the Hurricanes need to do is keeping win at a pace similar to what they have been since the start of 2019. There is not need for over the top heroics. The Hurricanes just need to keep the same course.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of the three competitors is most vulnerable?
2) Where do you predict the Hurricanes land in the standings and playoff picture once the 2018-19 regular season is over?
3) What are your thoughts on Pittsburgh, Columbus and Montreal?
Go Canes!
This will sound like a comment from one of the jerks in the house, but the only competition the Canes have is their opponents over the next month. Who the other teams are and their level of success is irrelevant given the Canes have no control over the situation. I get the point of the post Matt but the reality is……..
Along the same lines as ten’s comment–and stating the obvious–six of the games in March will decide the team’s fate. Two against each Pittsburgh and Washington, and one against Columbus and Montreal. If the Canes can go 4-1-1 in those six, they will almost assuredly be in. In fact, if they beat Washington twice, then 2nd in the Metro is not out of the question. It would be possible to win the other 10 games in March and lose all six of those games, but that is only the mathematical truth.
If the Canes split the 8 games leading up to Pittsburgh on the 19th, that game will be huge. If the Canes can go 5-3, then winning on the 19th could open up enough of a gap to make the remaining 10 games less do-or-die. The same is true about the game at Columbus on the 15th. Should the Canes be 4-2 prior to that game, then beating CBJ on the road would likely create a 3-4 point cushion.
Thinking about the games in March is both fun and stressful!
ten is right , but in the spirit of this post …
I still believe that any of the top 5 spots in the Metro could settle in almost any order. And that means that NYI might miss the playoffs, even if that seems unlikely now, and it means that the Canes could win the division, any equally curious outcome.
First the good news: we are playing the best of all these teams as measured by results over the past 6-8 weeks. If we continue to play that same hockey, it’s incumbent on the other guys to play even better to overtake us. Since we are playing great hockey now, that seems like a reasonable proposition.
Further, PIT has come down with some untimely longer-term injuries; they are already struggling to put it together and are running out of games; maybe this is the year when their music stops. The odds of this happening is, obviously, higher than it’s been in quite some time.
Now, the bad news: we have the hardest schedule. We have excellent and seasoned leadership but are otherwise in uncharted territory – lately, like last week, we have dug deep and won what for us were big games, but it’s been quite some time since we’ve held a playoff spot this late in the season so it’s unclear how we’ll react as the pressure mounts. And our goaltending, while excellent, is the least tested when compared to Bobs, Price, and Murray – again, this is a huge wildcard.
All in all, I believe we’re going to hold on and end up ahead of both PIT and MTL, setting up a first-round matchup with either NYI or WAS – and if we get another shot at NYI this season, we won’t go 0-3-1. I actually think any matchup in the Metro is going to be a tough, tough series for any of our possible opponents.
Yesterday I received my invoice for 2 post season series AND saw the Canes in a playoff position that would pit them against someone other than Tampa in the first round. What were the odds on New Years Eve that would happen? According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html about 6.5%. Today that oddsmaker has us at 76% chance of finishing in the 8th playoff seed position and near certain to face Tampa in the first round. While that site requires one to be a bit of a math nerd to buy into, it does factor in past results for the entire season played and future strength of schedule details. The site has Columbus and Pitt in striking range as well. Any way you dice March, the Canes will start the month in the unusual position of having meaningful games every night.
I did a double take when I read your sentence “…all the Hurricanes need to do is keeping win at a pace similar to what they have been since the start of 2019.” We have been playing a franchise record and an elite level since the start of 2019. So if you’re saying is all we have to do is continue playing at an elite level – then I am in! đŸ˜€
But is that level actually our norm – or will there be some reversion to a mean. We haven’t seen the “Hyde” version of the team – the low energy team we saw in December and then against OTT and NYR in January – in a while but is that beast still lurking?
We have had lesser games where the goaltending has bailed us out – but if you look at Mrazek’s numbers they are not great.
Finally we probably have the least amount of depth – and the injury bug could be deadly.
I don’t just want to wrap it all up in the phrase “…all the Hurricanes need to do is keeping win at a pace similar to what they have been since the start of 2019.”, when I think there are all sorts of reasons our pace can slow.
But a slowing place isn’t bad (as long as we can avoid losing streaks). I think we still get in by play .600 or .650 hockey the rest of the way in.
I actually the Islanders may be the most vulnerable – they haven’t been as strong as earlier and if they continue to fall off the pace it will more readily open a top-3 spot in the Metro if, as presumed, CBJ’s all-in at the trade deadline results in a push.
I think we end up 3rd in the Metro or the top WC spot.
I think Pit is the team to beat for a playoff spot. I think their D issues will be hard for them to overcome, and the Canes have 2 games against them.
I expect the pace to slow. There is a certain psychological fall-off when you have achieved a goal that seemed impossible, i.e. getting into the playoff picture. I am curious to see how the players handle this. Can they stay hungry, stay focused, stay desperate in the face of achieving a goal coupled with stiffer competition.
It is true that depth could be an issue, but we have Fleury and Jake Bean on D, Bean has played very well and is maybe ready to ride an adrenaline fueled audition to NHL success (just remember how the guys did when called up last year).
We also have playrs like Gauthier and Saarella who have been playing well down in Clt and may be ready for 15 minutes of NHL game duty.
And our latest AHL signing has played either around 80 or 100 NHL games. He knows what it takes, even if he has not been able to put it all together.
So, yes, we don’t have the depth of, say, Columbus, but I think our farm system is better than Pitsburg’s. we have a handful of guys, both on forward and defense who can step in with reasonable odds of at least short-term success.
Sitting outside in the sun wearing my rose colored glasses aside, I’ve got a good feeling about this team. Columbus has all the parts needed for a deep playoff run, but Torts could earn the “Coach of the Year” award getting the BJs to play as a team. Four big egos with major UFA distractions won’t simply fall in place. That task won’t be as easy as it looks. If you want to see a fan base on the ledge ready to jump go to the Pensburgh website on SBN and read the comments. The lynching party for Jim Rutherford is practicing knot tying. Crosby and Malkin will need to carry the team the rest of the way. Their backline is highly suspect by the fans who know them best. Montreal had played above expectations until 6 weeks ago. Their current trend is steeply down and contentment with what will be a successful season w/o playoffs may be creeping in to the team psyche. The Canes meanwhile are tightly knit group with a great new rallying cry playing with house money. Our rookies aren’t real rookies anymore, each having earned a future in the NHL, with solid 60 game resumes. Most importantly our best players are playing like our best players. Good time to be a fan.
Right on. I’ve picked the Pens to fade in the past and been wrong. This season seems different. The injuries, the incessant rumors of trading Kessel, Horquist’s disappearance, up and down goal tending – it all smells of a crash and burn end to 2019. I don’t think how the Canes are playing is an anomaly. If the goal tending holds up (!!), they’ll give everyone a run. I like Columbus’s team even if the top layers bolt after this season. They’re still talented and with Tortorella, every game will be a battle. Islanders have the best coach….should slide in. Please be the Pens that fall by the wayside. PLeeeeeeeeeease.
I think the smart thing about the Blue jackets acquisition is that MD and RZ are used to playing together on a line. Give them a third person that maybe drives the net and doesn’t get in the way and they can resume scoring without necessarily upsetting the other pending UFAs.
They are unlikely to play on a line with AP and a goalie is a goalie.
So I think the gamble will pay off to at least a conference final. Whether that is deemed successful in the eyes of the Columbus fans is a different story, it won’t be easy to eliminate the greased (Tampa Bay) Lightning this time around, at least not until the finals (they have a knack for not making it all the way but we saw the Caps break that curse last year).
Who knows, Summer lovin’ happens so fast.
March is a beast of a month, but doable.
The only enemy of the ‘Canes during this stretch will be themselves. If they mentally feel like they are chasing teams, or worse, crack under pressure of “being chased” for the first time and allow other teams to dictate play, then that will affect their play negatively.
But I also think the team is just starting to reap what they have soweth all year. Management has placed trust in this very team at the deadline, proving more confidence. They now need to utilize this renewed energy in the right ways. They need to continue the Herb Brooks like ‘screw the competition, we are the best team, this is our time’ approach. 3rd place in Metro is not out of the question for this bunch of jerks.