Final reminder that Canes and Coffee is accepting reader article submissions. I think the deadline was technically today, but if anyone still has ambitions of submitting an article, we will leave it open until end of day Sunday.
Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe and also the Thursday Coffee Shop article both stepped outside of Raleigh and looked at the Metropolitan Division competition for the 2017-18 season.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe will also step outside of Raleigh but in a way that looks back inward. From my unscientific research (namely having more time to talk to more people outside of our Canes world during the off-season), I made a quick list of Hurricanes players/situations for which I think many who watch Hurricanes hockey part-time and from afar see things differently than I and many other Hurricanes fans do.
To be clear, my aim is not to belittle the broader hockey world. My level of understanding for other teams is nowhere near what it is for the Hurricanes, and most certainly I have views on other teams that do not match those of the people who track the other teams daily like I do the Hurricanes.
1) Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce
I think that Jaccob Slavin’s new contract was an eye-opener for many. I also think that the stats community is farther along in terms of understanding the reality of the Hurricanes blue line than the broader hockey community. What I saw in 2016-17 was a clear changing of the guard in terms of the top pairing with Slavin and Pesce playing in a top pairing role and excelling at it. I also still see some talk about Slavin and Pesce more like prospects in the ‘going to be good someday’ kind of tone. After the 2016-17 season that both players had in a top pairing role, that talk is already outdated for a pair of young players who have already arrived.
2) Justin Faulk as the flip side
The flip side is Justin Faulk. I still regularly read articles and have conversations that suggest many see Faulk as the cornerstone and top player on the Hurricanes defense. To be clear, Faulk is a very important part of the Hurricanes young blue line, and he is a good young defenseman. But in my mind, he enters the 2017-18 season at #3 on the Hurricanes improving blue line depth chart.
3) Jeff Skinner
To say that he is unknown or does not receive any recognition would be an overstatement. He is recognized around the league as a scorer. That said, he finished sixth in the entire NHL with 37 goals and finished ahead of Patrick Kane, Alexander Ovechkin and a number of other great offensive players. He should at least be mentioned in top 5 goal scorer conversations. Instead, I feel like he just gets lumped more loosely into a top 20 or top 25 for many people still.
4) Jordan Staal
Probably the most annoying of the misconceptions about Hurricanes hockey is the seemingly large contingent of fans around the NHL who underrate Jordan Staal. At the core of these opinions is almost always Staal’s scoring totals which are admittedly modest. The ‘he is a third line center’ opinion is a result of light viewing of Staal’s play and a superficial understanding (measured mostly by top line scoring statistics) of Staal’s level of play, role and context of his situation. I fended off Jordan Staal trade rumblings earlier this month. Worth noting is the Staal regularly centering a checking-focused line with a couple depth wingers on his sides. Arguably his best run of hockey in a Hurricanes’ uniform came during the 2015-16 season in an extended run in a shutdown role with Andrej Nestrasil and Joakim Nordstrom on his line. He was lights out, excelled defensively and scored at a reasonable clip that looked impressive if you adjusted for his defense-leaning role and also the fact that the line was light on pure offensive help. The Hurricanes are finally becoming deeper at forward which has the potential of boosting Staal’s scoring a bit, but given that he is a great player but not really a pure scorer, I figure we might just have to indefinitely endure this disconnect between broader NHL perception and reality.
5) Fallacy that the Hurricanes are still in rebuilding mode
Especially around the summer trade season, it became clear to me how many people picture the Hurricanes as still in rebuilding mode. So many trade conversations figure the Hurricanes for wanting futures (mostly draft picks) as a return for their players which would suggest a 2-4-year time horizon for being competitive. At a 50,000-foot level, it makes sense. The Hurricanes missed the playoffs again, so it looks like they are still trying to piece together the lineup for somewhere down the road. But Francis’ words and actions this summer and also the very clear tone of Justin Williams’ interviews suggest that Francis is very much targeting the 2017-18 season for a return to the playoffs.
What say you Canes fans?
Do you agree that there seems to be a disconnect between Hurricanes reality and the broader NHL viewpoint for the items detailed above?
Do you see other situations where the general perception outside of Hurricanes regulars seems disconnected from reality?
Go Canes!
Well everyone picked us to be 30th in 05-06, too.
Except they seem to finally be picking up on us this off season.
Matt. Good post–I do think the broader community is a little behind on the progress and talent level of the Canes.
But the endowment effect is also at play for those of us who love the team–especially for aspects of the team we like. I say this as a self-proclaimed optimist when it comes to the Canes’ future.
1) Pesce and Slavin (I am going to start using Pesce’s name first because I think even Caniacs see too much separation in favor of Slavin). They ARE already one of the best pairs in the NHL. It is mostly lack of exposure and no offensive stats that wow folks who don’t watch every game.
2) Faulk. The opposite of 1. Faulk has been the team’s representative at the All-Star game, which is really the only extra exposure any Cane gets. You have also pointed out that he is top-5 in scoring ability/potential. So in a world where the most prized D-men are Burns and Karlsson, it makes sense that Faulk is broadly viewed as the most valuable on the Carolina blueline.
3) When I watch Islander, Bruin, or Ranger broadcasts, Skinner is the one player the announcers say has to be stopped. So I think he gets significant respect–maybe not at the Ovechkin /Kane level, but he is not ignored.
4) Staal is under-appreciated. I would argue even by Carolina’s fan base. Just think about all the talk about 1C. It would be great if he scored more, but scoring can come from the wings, what Jordan Staal brings every night is quite rare in the NHL.
5) Again, this is not a totally untrue perception. Signing Williams is evidence that Ron Francis thinks the team is playoff ready and once in the playoffs has a shot. However, I think if you gave him truth serum he would also admit that Williams (and to a lesser extent Jooris) is a bridge to 2019, when the team’s young roster talent and prospects will be ready. The team has arrived past the “wait till next year” stage but is not quite at the “give up some of our prospects because we can win it all this year” stage. The Hurricanes are no longer just rebuilding; they are a team whose future is still brighter than the current season. I actually like that I have playoff expectations this year and finals expectations for sometime in the next 5 years.
I like all of this with one slight disagreement over your “bridge to 2019” comment about Justin Williams. GMRF has built this team to be playoff-ready this season and a serious threat in 2018-19. JW is not a bridge under this plan.
I agree with you dmilleravid. We are built to win now and to at least make the playoffs this year. Otherwise, I agree with ct on all of his points.
dmiller and RR. We are on same page. What I was thinking is more of a comparison with Toronto’s signing of Marleau at high cost/extra term that will create cap problems. Or Chicago trading Panarin to shake things up. I see Williams signing as commitment to this season without any cost in future due to cap or prospects. Sorry I was unclear.
No need to apologize to me. Your point of view is one of the major reasons I read this site daily. Keep up the good work.
Only disagree on your fifth point. The rebuild is not over. Signing Justin Williams is just part of the rebuild His 2 year deal is a bridge to the completion of the rebuild. As Hainsey was to the defensive part of the rebuild Williams will be to the offensive part. This is not the first year that RF has talked that his team is play off capable, his comments are designed to aid ticket sales and fan morale much more than guarantee a playoff appearances Williams words are part of the teams psyche rebuild, from perennial also ran, to swaggering winner. He will be to the young forwards in Raleigh and Charlotte, what Lamoriello wants Marleau to be for the offensive side of the Leafs rebuild..
I’m not a cynical as you are about GMRF’s comments. While we may not be where NAS or CBJ or TOR are (compete for Cup now), we are not where NJD or ARI are either (full rebuild, where we were the last few years): I would characterize where we are as being somewhere in between but closer to the former, which is “very competitive now with more upside coming” mode – a team on the rise. Huge difference and major progress.
Again I agree with you dmiller. I don’t think RF makes statements he doesn’t believe in just for fan morale purposes. I think he really thought last year’s team could at least make the playoffs. What he didn’t know was that while the Canes had improved, the whole Metropolitan Division had improved also and he overrated his goaltending position.
On January 14, RF was wondering what pieces he could buy. By February 28 he wondering what he could get for the pieces we had.
That is what 6 weeks of general bad hockey will do.
Again, this is just a restatement of my general thesis that we would have been a playoff team last year if the wheels hadn’t come off over those 6 weeks.
Your point is well taken. I just don’t know where you got it that I disagree with you because I do think your assessment is correct. You addressed in real terms what happened on the ice. My only comment was about what RF train of thought MAY have been.
RR – I do think that RF was fully aware of the level of play in the Metro (although I don’t think anyone expected CBJ to be so good). That is just me differing from what you said on that one particular point.
We are just beginning the 3rd year of the rebuild. We differ that you consider “very competitive now with more upside coming” as rebuild complete, while I see it as rebuild on schedule. There is no questioning progress is being made, but until this team actually accomplishes something on the ice in the regular season, we can’t honestly consider the job done.
Again, I agree with you that until we see positive results on the ice that we are looking for, the job is not done.
Reasons for a lack understanding from other fans:
First and Foremost, we have TURRIBLE, yes Charles Barkley turrible, media coverage. The media couldn’t care less about the Canes. Media isn’t pushing the team from a hype perspective or a performance perspective. Articles aren’t there for other team fans to read about us.
2. We are still young. Young teams are seen as up and coming teams. Especially a young team lacking the bonafide star.
3. We keep sucking up Chicago’s cast outs. The media will expect us to take on bad contracts with futures if that is the hand we are showing. TVR and Kruger moves aren’t the same as the last 2 Chicago moves but they will look that way.
Last and not least, we have missed the playoffs for too long. Also staying dormant in the offseason and acquiring castoffs for most of those years doesn’t help either.
It should change though.
Jeff Skinner 6th in the NHL in goals last year…. wow… I had no idea. Good for him.
It should be obvious that you don’t get respect for “looking better”…you get it for being better!! …ie. You have to win something! If this team qualifies for the playoffs…TA DA, THEY WILL NOTICE.
The defense has gotten some LOVE, BUT we haven’t shown anyone (including me) that the team can score. It doesn’t matter if we lose 1-0, 2-1, etc. So some scoring is still necessary. Other teams will be concerned when our guys can frequently put up crooked numbers.
puckgod, your first paragraph is right on. That is the first prerequisite for increased fan activity. On your second point, I do think we have improved our scoring during the offseason. We added a top six 20+ goal scorer (Williams) and added scoring to the 4th line (Kruger will outscore Mc). Is it where we would like it to be in a perfect world? No. So you are right to keep your foot on the pedal on this point IMO. I will say that IMOwe will win most of those 1-0, 2-1, etc. type games this year that we lost in the past because we will be the team with the 1, 2, etc. goals.
(1) and (2) can be combined and viewed, as ct indicates, the NHL fan/media liking of D-men who are offensively-minded, even with high giveaways and limited shot-blocking. Players like Slavin and Pesce will never get the appreciation they deserve. And players like Faulk will be overappreciated.
I think we will be sending a new player to the 2017-18 All-Star game – I am expecting that Skinner will get that honor. And once he again has that distinction, he will be better recognized (and much better paid when his contract comes around in a couple of seasons!).
I really don’t think JStaal gets anywhere near the respect and regard he deserves – neither in the general NHL fanbase and media, or even locally. Two seasons ago his line (with Nesty and Nordy) wasn’t scored on 5×5 for something like two months. That is unheard of, particularly when he is going against the other teams best lines. And people complain because he is not a prolific scorer. . I always feel better when Jordan is on the ice. Plus he is a classy guy.
I still think we are in rebuild mode – but that ends in the next couple of seasons when our young forwards start rising to the NHL.
As for other “storylines”, or lack:
(1) The myth that we have great young organizational depth on the blueline. We have great young players in the NHL (assuming Fleury gets the call this season), but then it gets much weaker (until Bean arrives). I think Carrick is probably a career AHLer with spot appearances at the NHL level, and I think McKeown isn’t what he was advertised. The remainder of the Checkers’ blue line is formed of AHLers only.
(2) What is not recognized, I think, is the strength and organizational depth of our young forwards. I remember hearing that last season, RF was visibly unimpressed by what he was seeing on Charlotte ice and said words to the effect that, “…things will be changing here next season”. Indeed they have – the proof will be in the play. But the Checkers should be an offensive dynamo next season. And that will turn heads, if it plays out.
RaleighTJ…Completely agree with your 1 and 2 and have a half-written article to that effect. If Fleury makes the NHL roster and seems on track to be even a good #5, the young blue line will be realized at the NHL level but also used up much of the prospect pool doing it.
The forward position is still somewhat the reverse. The NHL depth is improving, but still a step or two away. But the forward prospect pool from age 18-21 is deep and balanced with both potential top half of the roster talent but also good depth below that top tier.
I have a caveat for both (tj and Matt). Beware because Canes fans have been spoiled by Pesce, Slavin, and, to a lesser degree, Hanifin.
McKeown is only 21 and Carrick just turned 23. I think it is way too early to think neither has NHL potential–especialy as a 5/6 D. As I said, Hurricanes fans seem to expect Pesce/Slavin ability for all the D. I think Fleury will be middle pairing or better within 2 years, especially if he has a solid partner.
I do agree wholeheartedly that the forwards at all three positions are deep and exciting with pretty much everything from 1C potential to promising two-way wingers.
I look forward to that article, Matt. One point I also have on Slavin and Pesce is that even though their offensive numbers are not, Slavin – at least – really moves the puck well. ct, that is where I think Slavin really has the edge on Pesce even though I agree with the stats you consistently offer on Pesce. But Slavin’s ability to move the puck is a big plus for possession numbers, time in the offensive zone, and contributing on the rush – all of which adds points directly and indirectly.
I am so keyed about the young forwards in Charlotte – I am almost so keyed I want to see some injuries! LOL! Just kidding.
ct, I am more confident in my assessment of Carrick than McKeown because I know Roland was slowed down by injuries last season. Carrick has seen a bit of NHL time and hasn’t impressed. He is solid at the AHL level. That said, both play on the right – if we need a right D-man, I expect McKeown will get the first crack. But he has to up his game. For both of them, it is “go year” – or one or the other may be trade bait when it comes time to buy a UFA at trade deadline.
Of the two games I was at in Charlotte, Fleury was the most impressive Checker I saw on ice. Fleury may well bump Hanifin in a year or two, and make the organization realize we may have wanted to give Hanifin some time in the AHL rather than moving him straight to the NHL as BP promised Noah on draft day.
IMO, we are going from the “building and going in the right direction” mode to the “something went wrong” mode if we don’t make the playoffs. At the end of the season, the discussion has been we have good young players and are doing the right things… if we only had a few more pieces then we would have be in the playoffs. And that is a mostly positive response. Now the talk at the end of the season if we missed the playoffs should be what went wrong. Who got hurt, or did not do their job. To me, that is the way a rebuild should work. We have the pieces now. Let’s go Canes…
And thanks again to Matt and all who post here!
I guess it comes down to how you define the word rebuild. If the definition is getting back to a playoff team, I think that is complete. With the obvious caveat that you don’t win anything in an offseason, I think the Canes are a playoff team as constructed. If you define rebuild as Cup contenders, then it’s not complete. We will need to see how players develop and what pieces are missing in the next 1-2 seasons to become Cup contenders. We are well along that path. Again the biggest caveat there being goaltending. If Darling is as advertised, then we are further along the Cup contending path. If not, we have lots more work to do.
I think every team faces a disconnect between their team’s reality and the broader NHL viewpoint and when your team is a perennial lottery team the disconnect grows larger. The team is still very much living in the land of “Shoulds”and “Coulds” and until we get the results we’re hoping for, we likely have to accept the doubt or disinterest from others surrounding the team. But hey, when we all get to say “I Told You So” it will be all the sweeter.
I’ve always considered myself an optimistic realist when it comes to the Hurricanes. While I don’t think we’re a lock for the playoffs this year, I think at worst, this will be our last season as a bubble team.
The biggest disconnect from reality among Canes fans for me likely falls with the some of the regulars rather than the casual observers. I mean this in the most respectful way possible of course but I think some of us are putting the cart before the horse so to speak when you consider that players like Aho, Slavin and Pesce aren’t going to surprise other teams this year. They’re tremendous players but were still relatively unknown quantities to other teams. So I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Slavin’s takeaway numbers go down as players stop trying to chip pucks by him or playing as loosely as they may have in previous seasons.
As for Aho, I worry he could find himself in a similar situation to what happened to Skinner in years 2 and 3. There’s going to be a lot of tape on him available to other teams and we may not see as many “Tricky” plays work in his favor, i.e carrying it over the blue line, stopping short and making a cross ice pass to somebody flying in.
I agree wholeheartedly with the first part of what you said. Probably too with the possible defensive regression, though our depth helps cover that scenario as well.
The only aspect of your argument to which I respectfully disagree, my fellow Caniac, is the comparison of Skinner and Aho, solely because of playing style. Jeff Skinner has always been something of a one-trick pony. Don’t misunderstand me, it’s a FANTASTIC trick. Kid can score. But NHL teams learned if they can stop him scoring, he’s relatively harmless.
Aho, on the other hand, has a lot more tools to his game. His passing ability and vision make people around him better. But you can’t just play him to pass because, while not Skinner caliber, he still has excellent skating ability and a potent shot. I don’t think a team can completely shut Aho dowm nearly as easily as Skinner can, simply because Aho can do so many different things to hurt you.
Great conversation point you brought up, indeed. I accept all skeptics and look forward to the day when we all celebrate in Canes playoff awesomeness.
Amen Sugaralt! We are beginning year 3 of technically a 4-to-5 year rebuild plan (a real plan with sustainability). Agree we are on schedule, but job not yet done.
Puckgod, I also agree…we gotta prove it.
Lastly, Fabdou is spot on. It all depends how one views a rebuild. Quickie rebuilds capture fans intrigue but are short lived. The goal is to be playoff (top 4-6) Eastern conference contenders for a decade or more…and because we have not been contenders for a playoff position in any March for quite some time, lets keep reality here. We have to show it first. This may be the year.
I always end up posting late on these articles, but still want to offer my thoughts – simply to add one to your great list Matt where I totally agree with you on every point (for once haha, disagreement is good).
#6. The perception that Haydn Fleury is one of the leagues fastest falling prospects, on the way to becoming a bust.
I have seen on forums, and some articles that people seem to believe our d prospect is headed to bust land, or “at best third pairing guy”. I think part of this fallacy arises from the fact other prospects we have on defense have risen higher in notoriety (Hanifin, Slavin, Pesce). People even seem to regard Bean quite highly (as do I), but I see a lot of doubters in Haydn Fleury. I don’t know the 4th or 5th best d prospects on most teams that I am not a fan of, but that doesn’t mean they might not also be a top 4 potential guy. I think the second reason the fallacy exists (and the more plausible reason) is that inevitably the players taken after him (Especially forwards) have proven to be GREAT at the NHL level so far (e.g. Ehlers and Nylander). People view the pick as a bust, but perhaps it is better called a ‘miss’, but it doesn’t mean Fleury won’t turn out great.
I think he could easily become a top 4 dman, and even a top pairing dman. I think one of the floor comparable players is Dion Phaneuf (good 2nd pair dman), maybe Fleury doesn’t have the same offensive upside as Phaneuf but is a better skater. I think one of the higher end comparables for Fleury is Erik Johnson (decent top pairing guy/elite as 3/4).