Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a minute to offer up a batch of Canes hockey opinion quick hitters.
(Not in any particular order)
1) I think the fan base is greatly overestimating the probability that the team will trade the #2 draft pick and the chance to draft Andrei Svechnikov.
Every year, the same thing happens. Teams with the top few picks say that they would consider trading their high pick for the right deal. The right deal is something crazily exorbitant. As such, while their might be some maneuvering with mid-late first round picks, the top few picks are never moved. In addition, talking about draft trades is fun, so it is significantly overblown in the media.
I feel like our fan base thinks this is a 50/50 chance. I think the reality is more like 99/1 that the Canes keep and use the #2 draft pick.
2) I think the Hurricanes fan base underestimates how sizable the gap was between high-end “scorer” and high-end “player” as relates to Jeff Skinner’s 2017-18 season and therefore prospects for the future.
Yes yes…The team needs scoring, and even in a down season, Jeff Skinner notched 24 goals to finish second on the team for the 2017-18 season. But as his scoring stalled a bit and he regressed in terms of risk/reward decision-making and attention to detail without the puck, he became a minus player in terms of winning hockey games. The team could replace the 2017-18 version of Skinner with a reasonably sound 18 goal scorer and be better off. The question is whether Skinner can both boost his scoring and improve on the soundness of his decision-making and two-way play.
3) I think whom the team hires to fill the assistant coach vacancy could be critical to 2018-19 success.
As Rod Brind’Amour tries to make a significant leap from no head coaching experience and only four years of assistant coaching experience, the brain trust could greatly benefit from another significant contributor coaching-wise. I think one of Peters’ failings was an inability to see the forest from the trees when things turned South. I clamored last summer for the team to bring in a veteran in someone with head coaching experience in a consulting or similar role to provide a sounding board for Peters. I think Brind’Amour could similarly benefit from another solid helper.
4) I think one key to the next leg up for Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen scoring-wise will be finding a complementary forward for their line.
The TSA line was solid, balanced and maybe even the best that the team could do with the personnel available. But as much as Jordan Staal is a solid player, he just is not a great complement on a scoring line, and it showed by the fact that he collected only 46 points while his (most of the season) line mates were up almost 20 points on him (also noting that more often than not centers are the top scorer on scoring lines because of how often they touch the puck).
Valentin Zykov assured that he would be considered for a place on this line with a decent run of hockey with the Finnish duo at the end of the season. James van Riemsdyk is arguably the most interesting free agent option available this summer because of his ability to play mostly without the puck and be productive finishing at the top of the crease. Regardless, I would not underestimate the importance of the third player on that line. Reaching point per game scoring usually requires a line with three players working well together.
5) I think many overestimate the need for a high-end prospect like Noah Hanifin to develop for numerous years before reaching up to or near his potential.
Players who are on the elite track at an early age tend to develop much more rapidly. Players are working with special coaches as young teenagers and playing against elite competition in world tourneys only a few years later. As relates to Hanifin, Zach Werenski and Ivan Provorov who were drafted behind him in the 2015 NHL draft have both established themselves as every game top 4 defensemen. If you roll forward another year and consider players a year younger than Hanifin, Mikhail Sergachev, Charlie McAvoy and Jakob Chychrun have similarly played their way up int the top 4 at the NHL level. No doubt, there is the possibility of Hanifin being more the type who just puts it all together suddenly and vaults upward, but I also think entering his fourth season, Hanifin is officially on the clock development-wise.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these opinions do you agree with?
2) Which do you disagree with?
3) What opinion quick hitters would you add if making your own list?
Go Canes!
1) I agree with all of the comments. The comment about Hanifin is spot on, and applies to the Swedish wonder Dahlin. While Dahlin dazzles with the puck, he is not yet an NHL caliber defenseman. For him to make an immediate impact may mean using him in a creative unconventional way. It is also why he may not go first as everyone thinks.
2) I am least certain about JVR being the best candidate to team with the Finns given speed rumors (if true and not due to a resolvable nagging injury). Svechnikov or Zykov or another acquisition may be a great fit. It is also possible, although less likely, that someone slotted into the bottom of the lineup could dazzle in the right situation, William Karlson style.
3) Goalie. Darling needs to come into camp in world class shape. No excuses. The demands on the body and mind at #1 are such that a long season will crush the unfit.
And I would double down on the assistant coach point.
Good poast as always.
1) Particularly agree with 1, 3 and 4. No messing with the pick, a more offensive=minded forward for TT and Aho and an experienced assistant coach ae keys to success this upcoming season.
2. I don’t disagree with 2 and 5 per se. The question with Skinner is, can we get a repeat of his 2016/17 season, or hass something ultimately changed about his play. I think he played most of last season in the doghouse, with different line mates and up and down the lineup. Is that because of his poor play or did it encourage frustration which ultimately lead to the decreasing quality. If he can accept working harder and given more consistent line mates there is potential for a difference maker in him. If not, can the canes management convince other teams that the potential exists and then trade him for a good player and a high pick or a difference maker. He will be playing for a contract, players tend to play their best hockey with a UFA contract on the line. I totally agree with Hannifan, I think he should be traded, but I am also reminded of players that were rushed into the league too soon, Lindholm style.
WE have to be careful to anoint an incoming player as the savior of the franchise, no matter how well he has done at lower levels.
I think RF and the Canes scouting have an exceptionally poor drafting record in the first round.
3. does anybody know if the Swiss IIHF goalie is under contract in the NHL or KHL? He played well in the tournament.
Without a drastic improvement in goal the Canes season is doomed. The team has to acquire a goalie with upside, no matter what it takes. If Ward and Darling start as the tandem again my expectations for the seassons will automatically be adjusted to draft picking then playoffs.
Some interesting opinions for consideration today. I would suggest one opinion that may have been missed is the view that the organizational leadership is not up to the task. Due to some vocal media and traditional fans, many may think Dundon and co. as not having the ability to get things done.
I disagree with this. The leadership has brought change and the biggest player move is trading bottom six forwards and signing a Finn to a two way contract. The way TD does things may be different but could prove quite effective. Fans can have opinions and enjoy spirited discussion. Yet when chaos and firesale are used by some media types they have no idea what is going on in Raleigh.
To your points-
I agree with points 1,3, and 4.
Points 2 and 4 involve two players that if I remember correctly were drafted fifth overall. They were probably both in the NHL too soon on teams that were not great. Development and proper employment matter for young player.
Is Skinner a high end player or a high end scorer? We know he can score. If he had a decent team around him for much of his career, I think he would be considered a high end player. Did he try to do too much individually and get frustrated with team results? I think a fair case could be made for that. As a result, for Skinner and the team, change is needed.
Hanifin is 21. I wouldn’t throw in the towel just yet. He probably deserves a bridge deal. Can he find another level and be the player the canes need? I think so. His development has been hindered by being rushed to the NHL. Unfortunately no one else was available. Would anyone disagree that Hanifin, Lindholm, and even Skinner would be better players if not being asked to join the team at 18?
#2 pick – we keep come hell or high water unless the return is monumental.
Skinner – we know he can pot goals, but does the net goals against when he is on the ice make us better? Nope. Has he gelled with any line mate the last 4 years? Not really. Has he ever been able to hold down top line status? No. Therefore he should thrive elsewhere and so should we.
Assistant coach – Craig Ramsey would be an experienced associate but I think he’s under contract with the Slovakia national team. I could see a Doug Weight type as well.
The complimentary top line forward likely comes via trade around the draft, or perhaps within.
Hanifin should stay…not everyone develops super quickly and some of the other young guys mentioned above were likely paired with stud veteran defenseman.
1) Agree–there is almost no chance the Canes don’t pick at #2. If the new management team doesn’t select Svechnikov, then we should all have serious doubts. Having an elite goal-scorer makes all the other pieces easier to assemble. Even Vegas (whether through luck or excellent analysis) had a 40-goal scorer. Adding Svech to Aho, Necas, and TT turns the Canes from a low-scoring team into a potential top-5 scoring team in a couple years.
2) I like that you contrast scorer with player (despite what I stated above). Also, if the team truly needs a culture change, then Skinner is the player whose departure would most signal that Carolina will ice a “new” team in 18-19.
3) Good points.
4) I continue to believe that player has been found. An AHL scout (if I remember correctly) stated that Zykov had a “whole new compete level” after retrurning to the Checkers for the playoffs. So not only did Zykov put up points in his 10-game tryout, but he took it to heart. Given his style of getting in front of the net and requiring the defense to account for him, Zykov is a great complement for Aho’s and TT’s ability to breakdown the oppositions’ D.
5) Not sure Hanifin’s potential is overestimated. For some reason all the D-men were less productive than they should have been under BP. Again, all the teams that won at least one playoff series got at least 105 points from their top 3 D scorers. Carolina got 93 from Faulk, Hanifin, Slavin. Surely some of that was system.
My add: The top two picks in the past two drafts (Matthews, Laine, Hischier, Patrick) have had a substantial impact on at least one teammate–and not always a player on their line. Here are the numbers for four players before and after.
Ehlers 15/38 to 25/64
Kadri 17/38 to 32/61
Couturier 14/34 to 31/76
Hall 20/53 to 39/93
I am not saying the rookie was responsible for all the increased production. But adding a high-end talent has ripple effects throughout the lineup due to matchups, puck possession, high danger chances.
Whoever centers (I continue to think it should be Lindholm) is likely to score 20 more points than last season.
On an unrelated note, the Canadiens just signed Niemi to a 1-year 950K contract. I wish the Canes could stop hesitating and pull a move like that. Niemi is a capable goalie, though not overly consistent.
Puts Ward’s $3 mill salry for a backup in perspective, Niemi was definitely considered a top knotch goalie as little as 4 or 5 years ago and he had a good if slightly injury-plagued season last year.
Skinner to Edm for RNH would be ideal.
Give him a chance to score 200 goals with MacDavid at center and brings back a first-lineish center (at least short-term) that the Canes need.
I can’t get a good idea of what it would take for us to get RNH; reading anything from an EDM fan makes it seem like RNH is only a slight step down from Draisaitl on the untouchable scale.
I would like to see us use Faulk to trade for a top-6 LW; RNH would be great, maybe Patches. Then use Skinner to get a top-4 stay-at-home RHD vet to pair with Hanifin. Somebody with some snarl to them; Hjalmarsson could be a good fit. Then sign a UFA goalie capable of being at least a 1A; I think Hutton could be a good add there.
I think moves like this when combined with the young guns coming in (Necas, Svech I hope/Zadina, Zykov, Foegele) will be a huge step forward for this team.
I’m smelling what you’re stepping in. And in this case, it smells good.
virtus, I’m on the same thoughts. From what I understand with Edm is they moved RNH over to wing with McD & he thrived so now they don’t really want to trade him. I think we could use Faulk or Skinner (maybe Rask too) to get ROR which would be even better in my opinion. (if we don’t sign Tavares ;-))
Skinner might work bc they have strong centers but need scoring wings. If they draft Dahlin, they already have Ristolainen & another prospect D so I’m not sure they would want Faulk. I have heard rumors of them trading Risto though so that could warrant a need for Faulk.
Grubauer or Hutton could be a good addition for our net.
Svechnikov (obvious choice at #2) & Necas coming in will add another whole element of speed, skill & goal scoring to our team.
With these moves, we should make the playoffs without question.
Hi guys! I am back. I said that I would be back when things started happening. Well, they are happening. We traded to get Jordan Martinook. Then we signed a Finn who has a couple of years in the men’s league in Finland. Then we signed Geekie. Wow!
Each is strong and plays with an edge. I love it!
Now we are looking for an assistant coach to replace Roddy. Watch to see if Roddy gets to choose his kind of guy; a fitness freak, a weight room fanatic. I imagine that the Canes will be spending more time in fitness and strength training than they have ever spent in their lives. Yay!
1) I agree with Matt that the Canes will use the number two pick. I disagree (respectfully) on the selection. Roddy will use his influence, if he hasn’t already, to use the pick on his kind of guy. A player who is a fitness and weight room fanatic, an elite class playmaker, and a gritty player. Mr. Tkachuk is just what we need. He and the three I mentioned above are what we need. We can’t afford to continue as we have been doing; hoping that young talented scoring players who cannot defend themselves will be our salvation. It violates the rule of holes; as soon as you find yourself in a hole, first stop digging.
2) I must respectfully disagree with Matt here. I am not sure about his definition of “high end” scorer versus player. I totally disagree with his opinion that Skinny can be replaced “and be better off”. Skinner has proven his value as a scorer as well as a two way player many times over the last 8 years. He, more than any other player on the Canes, has needed and benefited from a new owner, a new GM, a new coach, and a new gritty linemate. He had an awakening with Bickell and will again with Martinook (or a reasonable facsimile thereof). The Canes need him more than most people know.
3) To repeat myself from above, we need a Roddy kind of guy. The need here is critical.
4) We already have a linemate for Fishy and Turbo. Valentin Zykov. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
5) Noah Hanifin. The man of mystery. Looks like an allstar one minute and then, in the blink of an eye, completes a perfect pass to the stick blade of an enemy player who is standing alone in the slot in front of our astonished goalkeeper. Go figure.
These things happen when all but one of our d-men have fewer than 250 games under their respective belts. The opposite should be true. To make it worse, the one “experienced ” d-man we had, had been being mentored be Ron Hainsey. Of course, we traded Hainsey and replaced him with another greenhorn. Suddenly, Mr. Faulk found himself to be the man with one eye in the valley of the blind. Further complicate matters with the fact that the coach dropped the huge responsibility on the shoulders of a man who neither wanted it nor was capable. But the coach was tone deaf to all matters concerning the human frailties of his players. So the recipe for disaster came out of the oven just perfect.
I do hope the new management learned from the mistakes of their predecessors. I hope that the damage to the psyches of the very human players can be repaired.
I just have one question for my fellow fans who express such consistent negative opinions of them. What do you have against Skinner and Faulk?
Hi I just wanted to mention that if you haven’t seen a lot of Svechnikovs gameplay I would not at all describe him as a ‘youngster unable to defend himself’. On the physical size he is listed as larger than Tkachuk and in terms of his game play he plays fast and powerful. One of his criticisms in fact is that he takes too many minor penalties dangerous hits etc. In other words – he has elite skill but he plays with snarl and toughness. Don’t think Elias Lindholm at 18 think a Vlad Tarasenko dare I even say Alex Ovechkin type physical presence.
I’m no pro scout but just watching a couple different videos of their gameplay on youtube and it looks to me that Svechnikov has everything that Tkachuk has in regards to strengths and also a possible higher tier offensively.