I came up only two players short of finishing all 17 players below the AHL level for the “Midterms” series before the 2018 NHL trade deadline took center stage. Remaining are 2017 blue line draftee, Ville Rasanen, and the crown jewel of the prospect pool, Martin Necas. My hope is post those within the next week or so.
In the meantime, you can find the menu of clickable links for the previous 15 entries HERE.
With the 2017-18 season slowly slipping away on the ice, I figured timing was right for an additional round of notes with a positive slant on some of the sub-AHL prospects covered in the series.
The formal interviews that are published on the site offer an eclectic set of viewpoints on the various players, but what is just as interesting for me is the volume of side conversations that yield smaller but oftentimes just as interesting chunks of information on the players. Especially for players who have been in the Hurricanes organization for a full season already, I usually have a couple contacts from my various efforts to gather ‘from the rink’ insight on the players. So the short, informal exchanges on email or Twitter are useful to confirm other insight or add layers of depth to it.
Based on the formal interviews and the side conversations, here is a quick list of positives for the 15 players covered thus far…
Luke Martin – Defenseman – University of Michigan – 2017 draftee
He is having a really strong 2017-18 campaign at the University of Michigan. His statistics are not overly impressive, and they likely never will be for a player whose core skill set is that of a solid defensive defenseman. From a couple of accounts, Michigan started slowly and was largely a train wreck defensively. Even during the early struggles, Martin was solid which boost his standing. The team righted the ship, and Martin was also a part of that. As a sophomore, he has stepped up to a higher level in his second year of college hockey just as one would hope for a developing player hopefully charting a course toward the NHL.
Jeremy Helvig – Goalie – Kingston Frontenacs – 2016 draftee
As an overage player, one would rightfully hope that Helvig would have a solid 2017-18 season in the OHL while trying to earn an NHL contract. He has done that and better. Everyone I talk to raves about Helvig and his potential. With Alex Nedeljkovic and Callum Booth a step ahead of him in the AHL, and Eetu Makiniemi and Jack LaFontaine tracking behind him in Europe and NCAA hockey respectively, one might figure that Helvig is a decision point for receiving a contract. I think it is a sure thing unless by odd chance he refuses to sign to instead re-enter the draft. I would not be surprised to see him signed in March before the OHL playoffs even start. When talking to people who watch him play regularly, words like “mature,” “steady,” and “consistent” are common. Helvig is a player who has grown to become a proven veteran at the Canadian juniors level. He must navigate a big step up to the professional level, but his arrival will make for strong competition at the AHL level starting with the 2018-19 season.
Morgan Geekie – Forward – Tri-City Americans – 2017 draftee
Matching my initial impression of Geekie from prospect camp last summer, what jumps out about him is how well-rounded his game is offensively. He is not a one trick pony with a bunch of gaps in his game. He has the hands to score off the rush. He can distribute the puck. He is comfortable playing close to the net and finishing there. He has a decent balance of playmaking and finishing ability. Given his 90 points in 72 games in 2016-17, the news should not be surprising, but it is still encouraging. The challenge for Geekie will be continuing to improve his speed and acceleration. After a strong week at prospect camp in drills, he disappeared a bit in the scrimmage when the back and forth pace picked up and left him a step or two behind at times.
Early thoughts on the Hurricanes three pending contract decisions
The Hurricanes have three players drafted in 2016 whose draft rights expire during the upcoming offseason. As such, the Hurricanes must sign these players to entry-level contracts or otherwise lose them. The aforementioned Jeremy Helvig along with Hudson Elynuik and Noah Carroll are the three players in question. As noted above, I would be surprised if Helvig is not signed. The same goes for Hudson Elynuik. Elynuik is a player with NHL size and pedigree and those his development has been step-wise, the Hurricanes will certainly want to invest three years and an entry-level contract in Elynuik to see how he progresses at the professional level. Noah Carroll is the player who is the biggest question mark. As a sixth-round pick, he is the kind of player that sometimes does not advance to the next level. In addition, I have received mixed reviews on Carroll’s potential as an NHL player. Nonetheless, my expectation by a reasonable margin is that Carroll too will receive an entry-level contract partly because of favorable math that sees the Hurricanes currently light on younger blue line prospects with all of Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin and Fleury working up to the NHL level quickly and leaving holes to be filled. In addition, Carroll has had a reasonably solid 2017-18 season on a Sault Ste. Marie team that has been very good.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of the 15 players profiled so far jump out as being ahead of schedule development-wise?
2) Which of the lower draft picks do you see as potential diamonds in the rough?
Go Canes!
If I was to rank the 17.
1 Necas
2 Helvig
3 Mattheos
4 Geekie
5 Bean
6 Elynuik
7 Cotton
8 Eetu (the forward)
9 Martin
10 Carroll
11 De Jong
12 Filipe
13 Zimmer
14 Eetu (the goalie)
15 Stevens
16 LaFontaine
17 Rasanen
The contract situation comes down to the organizational vision from here out. The Canes have 17 UFA and RFA to consider. I think there are 7 RFAs that are coming back. 17 contracts that potentially come off the books. 6 of the questionable ones are defensemen: Dahlbeck, Kanzig, Samuelsson, Carrick, Kanly, Robertson, and Chelios. If I was to guess Samuelsson, Carrick and Kanly would be retained. Carroll should have a shot in Florida, at a minimum (Take Kanzig’s spot).
My list would be similar to 0506. First three are the same.
4. Bean — Matt’s contact indicated Bean’s defense has improved considerably, thus not quite as much point production.
5. Luostarinen. Incremental improvement in his second year in adult league. Might be bigger version of Wallmark.
6. Martin. Another Pesce.
7/8 Elynuik/ Geekie. These two are close.
Rest agree with 0506.
I think Helvig is best late rounder. He is workhorse in CHL. My guess is he passes Booth and Ned in next two seasons.
Mattheos, from what little I have been able to read, is going to make NHL as sound three zone player with scoring upside. I see Foegele/Roy/Mattheos line as fourth line in evolving NHL.
Bean- He is on a better team but his scoring has cut in half and so has his minus rating. Im not sure if that is system, skill on the team, or chemistry with the squad. Im not as high on Bean. He may become our 2nd Murphy.
Mattheos- sucks that he will be stuck in the Juniors another year
Eetu the forward, I wonder if we bring him to Charlotte, a Kuokkanen type of situation. I rate ELynuik and Geekie ahead of right now because they have played the North American style. Eetu could easy jump them in Charlotte next year.
1. Necas (Hands down by far, times ten)
2. Bean (Down year doesn’t diminish the talent)
3. Martin (Brett Pesce wannabe?)
4. Matheos (Kind of a wild card, but a plethora of skills)
5. Elyniuk (Dude is huge, and is just now starting to learn to play like it)
6. Helvig (Great numbers this year, but first real good year, overager)
7. Eetu (forward) pretty passer in Finnish league, similar to Aho and Teravainen, though likely a lesser shooter.
8. Filipe (offense may be down, but he’s still a good two-way forward in NCAA)
Everyone else in some random order. Suffice it to say, the Canes will have some hard prospect decisions come summertime. I love it, this is great to see.
Fogger. Love your enthusiasm as always.
On Elynuik I think back to when I tried to understand what made a good baseball prospect. I decided it was hitting an above average number of doubles. Homers are subject to being overstated due to small parks or windy conditions. Doubles happen by consistently hitting the ball hard.
Right now for hockey juniors one thing I like is short-handed goals. They are some combination of tenacity, coordination, and finishing skills. Elynuik had four or five last season. I have not looked hard enough to find it this season.
Regarding Helvig, you missed that in 15-16 his save % was .929. Not nearly as many games, but I read he won the starting job late in the season. His playoffs last year were poor, but otherwise Helvig has solid to strong numbers the last three seasons.
Helvig will be a real wild card next year. I think Ned still has a large edge on him, but he could easily give Booth a run for his money for an AHL job.
I like your take on Elynuik. He has 2 SHG this year btw, as well as 6 game-winners (double his previous high). Also winning 55% of faceoffs, so the non-scoring stats are looking pretty decent for him, you’re absolutely right.
Your insights are continually fantastic ct.
fogger. I know you were following prospects last year–and seem on top of the juniors this year. What do you think of Helvig’s teammate Nyman? He is not ranked very high–probably because he is small, yet he has been a near elite scorer in both international tournaments and now in the OHL. With the Canes propensity for drafting both Finnish and overage players, I think he is definitely worth a look in the third.
At some point maybe we can get Matt to do an early draft preview–or you and I can find another forum for this pointless obsession.
1) Necas, Bean and Mattheos seem to be the difference making prospects in the fold right now whose statistics make me excited. I like what I have read and seem in highlight clips about Luostarinen more than I like his statistics – which centering a top 6 line in a mens league I can be fine with. Would like to see those 4 get to at least the American level ASAP.
2) No clue about diamonds in the rough. Overall it seems the Canes have a pretty balanced and respectable prospect system something honestly they have NEVER had in all my time of being a Canes fan. Francis might get some low ratings for ‘win now’ mentality – but in terms of building a contender the right way in my opinion he has checked all the boxes.
p.s. super sucks how Julien Gauthier (21st) has clearly had a pretty abysmal adjustment to the AHL. Was expecting a little more from a first round pick that had a LOT of hype regarding his power forward potential. Still lots of time to go development wise and not given up on him but didn’t expect him to have fallen so far on our lists so fast.
I agree with that. In terms of stockpiling prospects RF definitely gets a good grade.
In terms of his first round selections, I am not sure though.
I am excited about Nichas.
The goat has, so far, been a big disappointment.
I’m still not sure why, when we needed a forward we went with Jake Beanman as a defenseman instead. He has yet to prove himself so I give RF an incomplete.
Not sure Fleury was the answer either.
RF definitely impressed with his second round picks however, and we all know the defensemen we managed a highway robbery in the lower rounds.
Couple comments…
I think Jake Bean is especially interesting on multiple levels. Evaluated without context, Bean is a bit like Fleury who made step-wise development toward being a decent learning/depth defenseman in his 4th year after being drafted. But with Charlie McAvoy (picked immediately behind Bean) excelling in a top pairing role in the NHL and Jakob Chychrun (also picked a few slots behind Bean) only a step or 2 behind him, Bean stands out like a sore thumb at #13 thus far when one considers what followed. Bean has made progress, but my concern in limited chances seeing him in game action (prospect camp, Traverse City and a bit in world tourneys) is that he is average at best defensively defending against higher-end players even in his own age group. That leaves a gap just to become an offensive #5 defenseman at the NHL level and an even bigger gap to be a top 4. The real gauge for what the Hurricanes have in Bean comes possibly in preseason next year but more likely in Dec/Jan after he has had time to settle in at the AHL level.
From doing just the sub-AHL players as a series, I find it interesting to rate/rank them in a different category than the AHL prospects. Rating prospects in any way is very much apples and oranges with different positions, ages, skill sets, maturity levels physically, etc. But at least considering players who are in a narrower age range and mostly playing at similar levels decreases the variation somewhat.
Our best prospect is Ryan Bayda guys.