The 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes took the hard road to the playoffs mounting their usual first half deficit and then requiring a run of three months straight of close to flawless hockey with no room for even a single extended lull. One would hope that the 2018-19 success would be a stepping stone to another level for the Hurricanes such that each successive year becomes easier at least in terms of climbing into the playoffs. But inevitably the long 82-game season has a way of making a playoff berth a struggle at times for all but a few teams.
With the aim of charting a course to return to the playoffs in 2020 without the need for massive second half heroics and a nail-biter into the last week of the season, today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a few situations that have the potential to tilt the dial significantly toward easier or harder.
Petr Mrazek
If Petr Mrazek can pick up where he left off down the stretch in the regular season of the 2018-19 season, the Hurricanes will have a bona fide #1 goalie which make it much easier to win or at least steal points on lesser nights. That was a key component of the second half surge and would definitely help chart an easier course. If instead, Mrazek starts a bit slow like he did in 2018-19 or exhibits some of the inconsistency that plagued him in the past few seasons prior to joining the Hurricanes, the path becomes much harder and uncertain. Can James Reimer rebound and boost the team? Is Alex Nedeljkovic ready for the NHL? The answers to the these questions have the potential to have the Canes fishing for goaltending which makes for a much harder path to the playoffs.
The emergence of a third line that can score
Though not able to add a high-end playmaker to drive a second scoring line on par with Aho’s line, the Hurricanes did become deeper at forward with the addition of Erik Haula and Ryan Dzingel to go with the potential that Martin Necas is ready to contribute at the NHL level. If some combination of the newcomers, maybe Martin Necas and a couple younger players with upside can find chemistry and become a second scoring line behind Aho’s, the offense would be more balanced and capable of scoring more. Climbing a few notches on offense would certainly appear in the win column and chart a faster path to the NHL. If instead nothing really clicks with building another scoring line, the team will again be heavy on depth scoring light on the top-end scoring that drives offenses. Trying to get by with enough depth could come up short and makes an injury to Aho difficult to overcome.
Andrei Svechnikov
In the same vein of trying to find more goal scoring, Andrei Svechnikov has the potential for significant upside from the 20 goals that he scoring in 2018-19. If he makes step-wise progress from his 20 goals and 37 points in 2018-19, that would be a positive, but the real upside is if can use his rookie season as springboard to become the elite goal scorer that he was projected to be before he was drafted. Add a 35ish goal scorer to the Hurricanes depth, and the team becomes one with enough fire power to sometimes outrun their mistakes. If instead Svechnikov puts up similar totals to 2018-19 in developing gradually, the team will need to look elsewhere to boost scoring.
The top four on the blue line
Calvin de Haan’s role in stabilizing the team’s blue line early in the season is underrated by many. He meshed instantly with Justin Faulk and helped that pairing be a competent top 4 pairing when the team desperately needed that stability. Justin Faulk deserves credit for boosting his level of play, but I also think that de Haan deserves credit for being the steady and sound across from Faulk that helped boost Faulk’s game. De Haan is gone now, so the team really only has four top four defenseman. That is enough obviously, but only if all four are healthy and playing well. If Faulk regresses, the team is short. If Hamilton starts slow again, the team is short. If anyone gets injured, the team is short. If the top four on the blue line can play well out of the gate, stay healthy and be strength, the team has a foundation that gives the goalie a chance and also makes it possible to grind out points in low-scoring games. If instead, the blue line takes a step back either because of de Haan’s departure or injuries, the Hurricanes could suddenly be a team without a true strength which is a precarious position from which to push for the playoffs.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of the either/or’s that I detailed above do you think will be most critical to charting a slightly easier path to the playoffs?
2) Which one is most likely to turn out favorable? Which one represents the greatest risk to downside in 2019-20?
3) Who has additional either/or scenarios that could decide whether the path to the playoffs is easy or hard?
Go Canes!
1) Mrazek. The biggest change last season occurred when Darling was no loner making starts (technically the turnaround started two weeks later, but close enough).
2) See 1). I Mrazek and Reimer aren’t strong, the Canes most likely miss the playoffs.
3) I was never a big believer in leadership and culture change. However, others convinced me it was partly the reason the Canes succeeded. With Williams rumored not returning (at least to Carolina), hasn’t one of the keys in both those areas been removed?
1. i am tempted to say the most critical is Mrazek, but we are deep at goalie. Reimer has a solid body of work and Ned has great potential. The reality of Mrazek is that he has major consistency swings. He has gone on tears like he did at the end of the season only to fall off substantially – it is why DET moved him. He did it here, but in reverse. I don’t see any reason not to think that at some time through the season we are going to see issues with his play. But that is why we have Reimer. And Ned.
But if goaltending depth does not perform…
2. The most likely to succeed is, I think, a third scoring line – I really like the pickups of Haula and Dzingel – they are fast and effective. Add Necas to the right side of that line and you have one of the faster lines in the league, and one with offensive firepower.
As for greatest risk for probability, allow me to repeat myself..”if goaltending depth does not perform…”
But since risk is actually measured as probability, the “greatest risk” means the most likely (I am being technical here but to make a point) and I just don’t think our goaltending depth will fail us.
3. If we can avoid injuries to critical players like Aho (didn’t happen last year) and Slavin…
If the coaches can get their hands around the need to modify our approach to the power play and have one at least league average, it is like adding a depth score, at least. If have continue to have a poor PP, it is an anchor we need to drag around with us each game.
Many years ago (in the days of a six team NHL), the New York Rangers were the worst team in the league. Their goalkeeper, Lorne “Gump” Worsely was being interviewed in the locker room after facing 60 shots in a game against the Boston Bruins. The interviewer asked him, “Which team in the NHL gives you the most problems?”
Without hesitating, Gump said, “The Rangers.”
Pietr Mrazek had his troubles with consistency playing for the inconsistent Red Wings, Flyers, and Canes. Yet, as our game became consistent in January, so did Mrazek. I would say that Canes management is painfully aware of the goalkeeper challenges facing us this coming season. If they think we are set, I go along with them.
The forwards are the same for me. If we need more grit up front, we can call up Max and Cedric.
Matt talked about our top 4 defenders. But that’s it.
I doubt that the four we have can play 30 minutes each per game. So we must look at our numbers 5 and 6.
Can I say that the success of the up coming season depends on whether the 3rd pair is NHL ready? I can. It is , after all, true.
There are those of us who are comfortable with TVR as number 5. I cannot believe that anyone is comfortable with our Haydn as number six. Priskie, Forsling, Wood? Maybe.
It will be an interesting camp.
The last two times the Hurricanes made the playoffs there were two commonalities:
We scored more goals as a team than we gave up.
We got above league average goaltending.
That’s it. There’s a strong correlation to being in the top 16 in goal scoring and in preventing goals and getting into the playoffs.
Even if Williams doesn’t return and factoring the loss of Ferland’s points, I believe we added the 90 or so replacement points with Haula, Dzingel, and potentially Necas. Svechnikov will almost certainly continue his development (but I tend to think he scores closer to 25 goals and 55 points, which would be just fine). Aho and Teravainen are likely to come close or slightly exceed last season’s output. A health Jordan Staal probably puts up points in his typical mid-40s range. To me, that should take care of the goal scoring required.
The top 4 will play even better given they will have had more time to work together. And yes, I’m quite comfortable with “our Haydn” (or Forsling, Priskie, Bean) as the #6 working with a very steady Trevor Van Riemsdyk.
Interestingly enough, if Mrazek is inconsistent, we’ll probably find out rather quickly whether Ned is our tender of the future or not. Reimer likely can stand in as a weak 1b, but the key will be whether or not Ned can pick up those 10 or so games we’ll need him to.
The Metro has 8 teams that can finish in the top three. TBL,TML, Bruins and Pathers should be strong ND MTL, Buf can compete if the breaks go their way. So consistent execution and depth are keys.
The Canes can’t lose Aho for any length of time. There should be enough depth to withstand 1 or 2 injuries to other players at a time.
Hayden looked really good(big and athletic) taking batting practice with the Bulls, but then I remembered Scott Darling looked good taking batting practice last year.
Last season, Tampa Bay had the ultimate team. Their regular season record was amazing. They were almost perfect. They had a great bunch of scorers on offense as well as defense.
They were overwhelming. They had a couple of big, strong and mean defensemen. They did not have any enforcers up front.
They were swept away in the first round of the playoffs by a so so team.
What happened? Their vaunted defense was lessened by the injury to Hedman. No depth. This year, they back filled the dearth of depth.
A not-so-obvious (to some) gap in their offense was filled very recently when they signed Pat Maroon. They now have playoff chops. On the d they have Coburn. Up front Maroon.
They are now a done deal.
Heavy hockey is dead? Only in your dreams, Mr. Yost.
I agree with jaffmaster. Our Haydn looks pretty. He can skate. He is tall and fit. I even saw him fight once.
He can’t score. He doesn’t do anything well, except look pretty.
I will be shocked and thoroughly dismayed if he is given the number 6 or 7 spot.
He is young but if he wants to be an NHL player then he will have to play a heavy game.
Last year Faulk found his game again. It is time for Hayden to find his NHL game. He really had a chance in the playoffs last year to establish himself but failed.
Prepare to be shocked and dismayed when he EARNS the #6 role. 😉
1. Goaltending is the most important. We have to start the season strong. There are too many other teams in our division and conference that have playoff potential. Whichever team has any prolonged losing streak is not going to make the playoffs IMO. Reimer is key here. Even if Petr plays like he did the last half of 2018-19, Reimer has to be an excellent number 2 or beat out Petr as our number 1.
2. The most likely favourable we can count on IMO is the third line being very capable at both ends of the ice. Our greatest risk on he downside is injury to any of our top 4 defensemen. Our strong defense makes our goaltending better. So a loss of an Slavin and/or Pesce or even a Hamilton and/or Faulk would really change the dynamics of the team. It would even impact how aggressive we could be on offense IMO.
3. If we hit a dry spell and don’t have an on-ice leader like Williams was last year, then it is hard to tell how the team will react. The presence of Martinook might be a life line on the ice, who knows?
Marty would make a great captain in the non-traditional sense. He’s a spark plug, team-friendly, driven, and gives you every ounce of energy every shift. If Williams retires, and because this team is becoming more non-traditional in their ways, I can see the captaincy going to Marty. Why not?
If our Haydn EARNS a spot in our top six, Stormy will sprout wings and fly.
And I will be shocked, but not dismayed.