Last summer when the Hurricanes traded away Jeff Skinner for futures and did not make any big salary additions via free agency or trade, many were grumbling that Tom Dundon and the new management/ownership regime were cheap. A simple look at the salary rankings shows the Hurricanes dead last in the NHL for 2018-19 could be evidence that the grumbling was justified. But if one looks forward to 2019-20 and beyond, the Hurricanes spending on salary is set to grow significantly just keeping the players already in the organization.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes an early look at the Carolina Hurricanes 2019-20 salary situation.
2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes salary
Right now, CapFriendly shows the Hurricanes with a $63.4 million cap hit against a $79.5 million salary cap ceiling. It is the size of this gap that had fans grumbling that the team should spend more.
2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes Salary
But that number will grow significantly for the 2019-20 season.
Current contract continues into 2019-20 ($40.4 million for 11 players)
4 Forwards: Nino Niederreiter, Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele, Lucas Wallmark.
6 Defensemen: Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin, Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce, Calvin de Haan, Trevor van Riemsdyk.
0 Goalies.
The blue line is already under contract except for Haydn Fleury who is a restricted free agent.
Returning players on new contracts ($15.4 million for 3 players)
3 Forwards: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Martinook.
0 Defensemen.
0 Goalies.
The wild card here is Sebastian Aho. I put him in the budget for $8 million yearly for his new contract. Based on his current scoring pace, I think that number is more likely to be low than high.
Buyouts ($3.7 million for 0 players on current roster)
Alexander Semin, Scott Darling.
Certainly, the Hurricanes would explore possibilities to include Scott Darling and his contract in a broader deal, but in the likely event that is not possible, I fully expect the Hurricanes to buy out Scott Darling this summer.
Free agents who must be re-signed ($7.5 million for 5 players)
4 Forwards: Justin Williams, Saku Maenalanen, Brock McGinn, Greg McKegg.
1 Defenseman: Haydn Fleury.
0 Goalies.
None of the players on this list would garner a huge raise which is what usually makes these second tier players relatively low risk for being re-signed. Justin Williams is an unrestricted free agent, but I would expect him back on a short-term deal.
The starting point for building out the 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes roster (18 players at $67 million)
11 forwards
7 defensemen
0 goalies
To have a full roster of 22 that allows one healthy scratch for each position shows the Hurricanes at $67 million for 22 players.
Budgeting for the open slots
Not counting Scott Darling’s likely buyout which is factored in above, the Hurricanes still need to add four players. The cheapest outcome within reason is probably adding a $3 million-ish goalie and then also adding a proven backup at roughly $1.5 million per year. If one then assumes that the team back fills the forward roster spots with inexpensive players from within or an inexpensive free agent, the total is $6.5 million per year. That assumes that the Hurricanes do not try to re-sign Ferland or add another medium to higher priced forward.
Total salary $73.5 million.
So without really adding anyone from outside, the Hurricanes are up to $73.5 million. The 2018-18 salary cap ceiling is $79.5, so the Hurricanes will likely have a gap of $6 million plus likely another $2 million or so if the salary cap increases again. The result is that the current version of the Hurricanes roster leaves about $6-8 million to add more players. That $6-8 million should net the Hurricanes another forward or two if the right deal comes along but also could be kept on reserve for when Svechnikov needs to be re-signed. Remember that that number assumes Aho re-signs at only $8 million per year.
So when one nets it out, the Hurricanes do have cap space for 2019-20, but it is not nearly as much as 2018-19 numbers would indicate.
What say you Canes fans?
1) How much do you think Sebastian Aho will get/should get in his next contract?
2) If you had only $4-6 million to add one higher-end forward next summer, would you spend it on Micheal Ferland? If not, who would you target?
3) What other thought s do you have on the Carolina Hurricanes 2019-20 salary cap situation?
Go Canes!
1. Aho deserves whatever he gets assuming it’s not in the Matthews/McDavid range. His reported drive to win makes me think he might be more willing to go team friendly and term heavy to keep the other pieces in place to succeed, but we’re not in the room when he and his agent talk. The contract is all that will tell.
2. Yes-ish? If it’s short term and not ridiculous the team is slight of top six/scoring and he checks enough boxes as a known player that it’s hard to not choose the devil you know. If it looks like it’d become a choice between his small sample of production off an Aho centered line and possible breakouts for Svech or Necas in the future causing cap trouble then call it a mutual breakup and wish him well.
3. We need to tread lightly because Francis did a helluva job getting good prospects into the fold and current amalgam management has focused on NHL proven folks. The best mindset for the long term may be to play the “like our group” card and know that minor moves don’t make waves, but they make room for the guys coming up. It didn’t work for a very long time when the Canes prospect pool was negligible. The pool is a lot deeper now.
1) As of today, I think 8 years at 8.75M per year. He has earned and is worth that.
2) I wouldn’t spend it on Ferland unless it is for 4 years max. Ferland needs to play with top linemates to maximize his potential. There will be other options within the organization in the next 2-3 years. If Ferland isn’t playing with Aho, I don’t see that he will be worth the cap hit.
I am still hopeful for a player-for-player trade in the offseason given the cap constraints of several other teams.
3) 2019-20 is the tip of the iceberg. As Svechnikov, Necas, perhaps Fox or Bean and any future first-rounders come off ELC the organization will need to balance paying for top players with having valuable players throughout the lineup. It is the issue every contending team deals with.
1. 8.5 mill for 5 years.
I am not convinced that a team should lock up their top line center for eternity, it is a big gamble and the guy can get stail (see Eric staal).
I think with a formula that requires rolling 4 lines the top line center position is going to get slightly less important, though far from unimportant.
2. Not sure. Ferland has not done as well when not playing with Aho and TT in recent games. He’s not been bad, far from it, but not an elite first line performance, his goal against Pit was an empty net goal. I’d say 3 to 4 years at 4 mill is a great deal, 6 mill is too much. The team should bring up the goat for an extended look to see whether he could factor into the picture next season or the one after.
3. I think the team will try to keep goaltending salary down to 2.5 for primary and 1 mill for backup, using Ned as the backup.
I also think, given the salary cap situation, the team will try to downgrade one position on D through a trade.
I think a third pairing of TVR or Fleury and Fox or Bean to go with 4 of the 5 top 4 D we have is going to happen.
I think the team should explore trading Jordan Staal to downgrade on salary at forward or replace his skillset with a younger center. Jordan’s contract is too expensive for what he brings to the team and Walmark is doing a pretty good Staal impression. I think the team could upgrade by swapping out his salary and adding someone like Toffoli, a longshot but always worth a try.
We am also concerned by the nature and apparent severity of Jordan’s injury, having been out for over a month with concussion and not practicing with the team are warning signs, it’s potential the guy’s playing career may be at risk. Hopefully that’s far from the truth and they are giving him too time to recover seeing as the team is doing fine.
1. Usually in salary negotiations it is just salary and term in play, but this year for top players it is structure – how much in signing bonuses so that the player gets paid regardless of there is a lockout or not (90+% of Matthews’ money will come as signing bonuses, for example). How much will Aho push for that and how much might he willing to give up in salary to get the guaranteed bonus. Also, is he going to want to take only a 5-year deal so that he is a UFA in his prime years when this next contract is over. He certainly be getting $8-9M.
2. $4M for Ferland would be reasonable but $6M – not so much. He is going to want a big payday and I hope he gets it.
3. You analysis assumes we will keep who we have, Matt. But breezy more correctly as changes that probably will happen – trading one or more d-men who would be replaced by Bean (and Fox?) on ELCs puts millions back. In fact I think trades will be made based on internal salary considerations as well as positional needs.
1. Aho is likely between 9 – 9.5mil.
2. I know if you speculate on another Canes site you tend to get banned, but I know free speech is welcomed here so I’ll just say it…I’m guessing ‘Canes want Ferland for 3.5 to 4mil, but Ferland is likely worth 5mil+ the next two years. Problem is that his worth for that style of play will drop in a few years, and he wants to make his money, which is why I cannot see the two sides agreeing. In my opinion Ferland is dealt, and the savings goes towards a sniper.
3. I think we deal with the defensive surplus in the offseason to try and land a sniper w/term and solidify goaltending for 2019-20 (unless we can somehow do so before the deadline, never know?). We will probably ride our two existing goalies the remainder of this year and re-sign one of them this summer. I would try to sign Fox once the college season ends.
If Necas makes the team next year then we need Ferland to protect him. The Goat is big and strong but I don’t think he’s a feared fighter. I believe Ferland is integral to the team. If he leaves then we had better backfill his role with a player just as tough.
Aho = 7 x $8.8M
So you’re saying IT’S GREAT BECAUSE THE TEAM SAVED 16M…This year, eh? How is it a good thing to “NOT TRY TO WIN THIS YEAR?”
Do you believe that the team will spend any more for next year?
Expect Ferland to leave, and NOT BE REPLACED…and likely a couple more high priced players!
Cheap is A CHOICE, and APPARENTLY A HABIT…
I worry too that cheap has become a habit. Recent trades and signings have definitely started to make me think otherwise.
The real test is whether Aho will be signed to his next contract without drama and last minute antics.
I would like to see the Canes go for it now, try to acquire a rental forward and gun for the playoffs.
I didn’t think it was possible but the team has surpassed expectations since New Year’s Eve.
It’s no sure thing but the team is close enough to maybe just go for it. That would be a pleasure. Even if the team did not make the playoffs the guys will have seen management that wants to win it all, and is willing to go all in. That should make the team more
The Canes first anniversary of Dundon’s ownership was just 4 weeks ago. He has yet to show the continuation of most of Peter Karmanos habits. It may be premature to make any assumptions or assessments of TD’s spending habits.