Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe started to look forward to the start and eventual results for the Carolina Hurricanes 2018-19 season in asking 10 questions. If you missed it, the questions and comments that followed are worth the read.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe similarly looks forward to the 2018-19 season, more specifically the start of it, to identify a short list of early harbingers that could provide the best clues as to the fate of the 2018-19 season.
1) A change in attitude
On the one hand, changes in team mentality and/or attitude are impossible to measure. On the other hand, when they change drastically, they are unmistakable. The change in attitude, approach and swagger when Peter Laviolette took over was not something that could be measured, but it was also not something that could be missed. After watching a team that seemed capable of pushing up only to a certain level before whimpering backwards and oftentimes downright imploding, something needs to change. Whether a coaching change does it, a new captain, personnel changeover or random good fortune, the team needs to look different. Again, it is not something easy to measure, but my watch points will be how the team reacts to adversity and its demeanor on the ice.
2) Hope in net
Let me start by saying that I put absolutely zero stock in preseason play. There really has not been much of a canary in the coal mine in preseason, but without fail once the regular season starts, the Canes have struggled out of the gate for the most part and never really recovered. With two goalies looking for rebound seasons over sub-par 2017-18 campaigns, as soon as the calendar flips to regular season, I will be watching closely for early signs that at least one of the two netminders will prove capable as a starter. I am seeking sound and confident play, again at the start of the regular season and offering almost zero credence for preseason play even though I will certainly use it for optimism if it occurs.
3) Signs that the kids are ready to do more than learn and develop
The potential ceiling is extremely high for Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele and to some degree other Canes prospects who will battle for 2018-19 NHL ice time. But the question is to where on the spectrum, they lie in terms of ‘learning on the job’ versus ‘being ready to be difference-makers’. Both Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin stepped into the NHL as 18-year olds, and both were very clearly and purely in the category of ‘learning on the job’ at the time. Neither player was better than a replacement level veteran at the time. With the Hurricanes being light on top end scoring, the team really needs a rookie or two to not just step into the lineup but also be a difference-maker. A modest 35-40 points from players like Necas and Svechnikov could represent progress for their development, but it very likely also means that the Hurricanes are mostly in rebuilding mode, are light on current year NHL offense and are likely another year or two away. So with up to three forwards likely to push into the top 9 forwards, my watch points are twofold. First, as talented young offensive players, are Necas and Svechnikov in that unique group of players who rise to the occasion early versus needing time to develop? Second, do they look capable of going head to head against good NHL players without being overmatched initially?
4) The blue line as the driver
Canes fans are about two and a half years deep into believing that the young blue line was on its way to becoming a strength. As much as the potential has been there, that strength and potential cornerstone of the team had yet to materialize. Noah Hanifin exited after three years still as a third pairing defenseman with upside. Justin Faulk seemingly took steps backward in consecutive years. And as a result that team was unable to ice a top 4 that was truly a strength. I would actually go so far as to say it was a weakness in 2017-18. But things have changed. Noah Hanifin is gone , and if he stays Justin Faulk seems destined to slot as an offensive third pairing defenseman if the team is healthy. Two higher-end top 4 defenseman have been added to the mix with the trade for Dougie Hamilton and the free agent signing of Calvin de Haan.
Might this revamped iteration of the Carolina Hurricanes blue line be the one that makes the defense a strength? If so, the potential is there for this situation to lift the team across a number of fronts.
- If the defense is better, could that provide an improved situation that makes the goalies’ jobs easier and boosts that previous weakness?
- Can a better blue line help drive offense by creating the type of transition and rush chances that net more goals than the run of the mill ‘throw the puck at the net’ type chances that boost Corsi but not so much all-important scoring?
- Can a steady blue line provide a bit of a backstop for what will likely be a young group of forwards such there offense stands out and most defensive ‘oopses’ get snuffed out?
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these harbingers would you look to be the single biggest sign that the 2018-19 season could end well?
2) Which are you most optimistic about? Which are you most concerned about?
3) Are there any other early signs that you will be watching for once the 2018-19 regular season starts?
Go Canes!
These are definitely the 4 most important variables in the 2018-2019 season. I am most concerned about no. 3. As the forward group stands now, there is going to be much pressure on several young forwards to produce. If you toss in an injury or two, we could be in big trouble. Remember, even Aho took forever to get going each of the last 2 seasons.
I think the attitude change will take place and be positive. Coach Rod will see to that and will better use leadership among the players. I’m expecting him to name Justin Williams captain.
I will be looking for no. 4 to be the big difference-maker. Not only will this D group help to improve the goaltending, but it should also drive the offense, as well. De Haan’s strength is clearing the D zone. We sure need that, and improvement there will lead to even better puck possession and scoring chances. If the D doesn’t click right from the start, we could be in big trouble.
The other question I have is how is the new Stormy going to do? George was incredibly good and leaves a huge void to fill. It’s often too easy to underestimate the value of a great mascot.
The change in attitude will be what I am looking for the most in the early part of the season. Will the players stand up for each other and play together? This doesn’t mean several fights in game one but a we are in this for each other attitude. I think Coach RBA will get this from the team. He has the history and credibility with the team to get the buy in that is needed. It is vital that indifference and individualism from previous years is no longer part of this team going forward.
The team will have several new players. Probably a few more before opening night. Vegas found a way to come together. The canes need to find chemistry early and start together.
I am most excited about the young players that will probably be on the opening night roster. Necas got a year in Europe after being drafted. Hopefully the extra year is as beneficial to him as it was Aho. If he shows up at 190 lbs with his skating ability, he should do well. Svech is that rare player who can play in the NHL at 18. He has the size, skill and strength to be a difference maker. Will both make mistakes and have growing pains? Yes. Yet their talent is such to make up for some bad plays. These two should not be expected to carry the team but it will be a blast to watch them enter the league together.
The area I’m concerned about is obviously the goalie situation. I’m really pulling for Darling to get back to form. The big guy has shown he can be successful in this league. Hopefully he finds his way after the awkward transition year.
One last thing I’m looking for is the Aho scoring a goal early. If he can get out of the blocks early. Watch out!
The goaltending play early in the season is the single biggest harbinger of what’s to come. It’s also the one I’m most worried about. The entire team’s confidence is sort of riding on the play of the goalies.
I think the play of Necas-Svech-Zykov is next. I think the most is riding on Svechnikov. He could really struggle to adjust and have something like 12g-12a, which is fine for a rookie but not what moves this team forward. Or he could have huge year with something like 27g-35a. If Skinner is traded, even more pressure for Svechnikov to replace Skinner’s points.
Number 2 is most important to me. If the goaltending starts the season playing well, I believe that will give the team and coaching staff confidence. This should allow the players to play their game a little more freely and relaxed.
I am most optimistic about the defense. We have increased the talent level and the defense is more experienced. If Faulk stays and brings his game back to close to his best it could make things really great. I wouldn’t overlook Fleury either. He was really coming on at the very last part of last season.
I will be looking to see whether Martinook, McGinn, and Ferland come out and really make a difference with their physicality up front while adding some real depth scoring. I would like to see Foegele and Wallmark really step up and MAKE the team, but it is going to be difficult for them. If they do and play well (score as well as defensively) it will really a bonus for us. Also I am going to watch Necas closely to see if he is a difference maker in the center.
Like DarthCanes and RedRyder, goaltending is key, largely because it will drive attitude change. For some illogical reason I find hope in the low expectations for both Darling and Mrazek. (Similarly, I find worry in the high expectations for the 3 or 4 front line rookies who will be Calder eligible.) For me the list begs a #5 based on the hypothetical question: will the trades of Skinner and Faulk improve team defense and team attitude enough to overcome the lose of team offense?
I’ll jump on the goalie performance bandwagon as the most critical early season indicator of success. The rookies will need time to adjust, no doubt about it. But if the goalies flounder and the Canes aren’t at least getting a point out of most games in the first couple of months then once again, it will be a struggle to make the playoffs. Steady goalie play would be good. Actually stealing a win and getting a couple of points now and then would be huge. I look it as the goalies have to provide the yang to the rookie transition ying. It all has to net out to solid play and picking up points consistently. Better goalie play in the overtime periods is critical. If the Canes can at least be closer to the 50% percentile in OT and shootout winds instead of league bottom dwellers, they’re on their way to success.
These 4 harbingers are all very important. Number 4 “the blue line as the driver” is the most important control imho.
Why? Because better play on the backend will enable the goalies to get in a rhythm. Goalie statitistics may be the best gauge, but those statistics will only improve significantly with a better system on the backend.
Similarly, we need our defenseman to be more involved on the offensive end. If we are harder to defend, it will open up space and time for our rookies and veterans alike. We need a good secondary rush and better rotation on the cycle. You could tell from watching the canes play that BP favorite drill was the 2 on 1 rush – our secondary rush was generally non-existent.
If our defense is having fun, then this will be a fun season.
Before the start of last season, Gerard Gallant saw to it that his team was involved in off-ice “team building” activities. He wanted his guys to know each other and to learn what to expect from each other. It appears as if it worked. The Knights hit the ground running, working together as a team.
Before the start of the 2005-06 season Coach Peter Laviolette got his guys together to participate in team building activities. By the time the season started, the guys were a team. They too hit the ground running and never looked back.
One of their trademarks that season was to find themselves behind by two goals. Almost invariably, they won anyway. As a fan watching the games, I could feel their confidence in each other and in themselves. I could feel the confidence in themselves.
There was one home game we played against the Flyers. At the end of two the Flyers had a lead (I believe the score was 8-6). In the news the next day, Laviolette told the N&O that he told the team that he wanted them to forget defense. Just score as many goals as you can. He assured the goalkeeper that he wouldn’t blame him if we lost.
We won the game.
Roddy played on that team. He knows how he felt as a player.
The first thing I am looking for is Roddy getting the guys into team building activities. If I see that, I will relax.
1) Attitude.
I have been optimistic for the past two years. Now I am a realist. Prior to last season the team added players with multiple rings. Justin Williams said Carolina was “done losing.” Several of you who attended training camp said you saw how Darling being in net (his size, his demeanor, his athleticism) made the team more confident in front of him.
This year the team has acquired players from teams that all missed the playoffs. The players who are going to boost goal-scoring are from a team that had struggles almost identical to Carolina related to scoring. The defenseman comes from possibly the worst defensive team in the league last season. A realistic view is that the player changes from last season seemed much more likely to create a winning attitude.
But the coach you say. I am as critical of BP and his system as anyone. RBA will be an improvement. Yet, realism makes me acknowledge that the one part of the team he had most responsibility for was possibly the most disappointing. I stated that I thought Vellucci was the better choice. When the Checkers got behind early last season they often seemed to play better–including Ned. The team was fighting for a playoff spot in March and won their last 7 games. If the organization was looking within for a coach who gave the players confidence, I thought it was clearly Vellucci.
Still, having said all that I am optimistic for this season. Because the NHL (even with the Vegas story from last season) is not a Disney movie. Talent matters just as much as attitude, most likely quite a bit more. The trades and acquisitions (in my realistic opinion) have kept the talent level about the same. What has changed is the talent level of the rookies.
Svechnikov was the first forward taken. The last two non-centers to hold that position were Taylor Hall and Patrik Laine. Martin Necas is fast and talented. More so than any first-rounder until Svechnikov. He played against professionals last year and has added considerable size. Finally, there has been much hand-wringing about prospects being rushed within the organization. Well, Valetin Zykov is 23. He has spent 172 games in the AHL. He is ready to play at the NHL level.
Now I agree attitude is important. But attitude is improved when talent produces results. Think about your attitude as a fan when Zykov scored in front of the net with a defender trying to knock him off his skates. This season there will be three talented rookies making plays–that will improve everyones attitude.
So my optimism is back because Matt’s #1 will be taken care of by #3. This won’t be Hannifin or Lindholm repeated because the rookies will be joining a team with some veteran influences (Williams and Staal–who better to model professionalism) and a peer who is young and already excelling (Aho). I am not saying all three will dominate every shift/every game, but they will make the Hurricanes better, which will go a long way in creating a winning attitude.
2) So most optimistic about the rookies. Most concerned about the net.
3) The blueline scoring. The truth is that the d can make mistakes if they even out the ledger by adding scoring. The most valuable d-men are those that drive offense. I will be looking for one of the defensemen other than Hamilton to become a regular threat.
To me the biggest harbinger would be the change in culture (which is more than attitude, but includes attitude). We cannot have players making excuses for underperformance, accepting mediocrity both individually and as a team unit.
I am not concerned at all about the young players or the blue line (which is much better – but does it translate to better play overall in the d-zone?). I think the goalie situation will be interesting – both represent personal searches for redemption and both can become great stories.
Beyond culture the most important early sign is – can RBA actually coach?? I am not a believer in star players (in any sport) becoming effective coaches. If RBA does, he would be an exception. He has to prove he can do it, or we may find ourselves outcoached game in and game out. Coaching is more than insisting on player conditioning or doing team-building or working individual skill – all of which RBA has shown he can do effectively. The head coach has to manage the game behind the bench and we have a head coach who has never done that.
This team is an enigma.
You can describe it as a young and exciting team with key upgrades and one of the most promising rookie pool of the year, or as a team with two subpar goaltenders on a redemption mission, a head coach with no coaching experience who has been responsible for one of the league”s worst powerplay for multiple years, management with less than stellar track record, a cheapo owner who lowballs the staff, confusion about the captaincy and relying on unproven rookies for the rescue.
At this point either view is perfectly valid. I think the deciding factor is the attitude and team identity, more so than any individual players, systems or components.
Key is to not dig a hole in the first 6 weeks of the league, and to start winning crucial games, how many times did the canes get a chance to climb into the playoff picture only to lose embarrassingly (the Boston blowout was the biggest low last year).
I think it’s bout the intangibles at this point, about forging a team, not a collection of guys who like money, partying and showing off their skills, but a die hard, do what it takes crew. Another key is smart coaching and I have my reservations with RBA’s lack of experience and still hope he can get an assistant coach with more NHL coaching experience, but I am pretty sure that ain’t happening.
Culture change is big. The Canes need it badly. If both Faulk and Skinner are still in the locker room it will make that change difficult. I’m not sure if both were problems, but I’m pretty confident one of them were who Staal was talking about. Otherwise why all the efforts to get rid of them? Skinner may be about his contract, but either way bringing back two captains and pulling or reducing the letter on their chest doesn’t make things easy.
I am confident Brind’Amour knows how to make that happen. He may have challenges he doesn’t want, but I have confidence in him to make a huge improvement in the relationship between players and coaches. I also find the power play arguement against him weak. The players the Canes had on the PP last year had no business being there other than the Canes had none better. Lindholm and Hanifin showed poor offensive instincts, and they were on the first unit! Jordan Staal and Derek Ryan? Not offensive dynamos. There has been plenty of complaining about lack of scoring forwards. If a team lacks scoring forwards why would you expect their power play to be any good? Until some of these young guys start showing their offensive skills on the PP you can expect it to be in the bottom half of the league.
lessthan. I think there is a strong argument for Staal being on the first power play unit again this season. It is quite simple: the power play is more effective with the puck. While Lindholm and Ryan were not top-flight scoring threats, they did win face-offs. If you lose the face-off that begins the power play, then the power play is 15% less effective (presuming 18 seconds to get the puck back into the offensive zone).
Aho/TT/Svech should be on the first unit. I don’t see the argument for a Cane other than Staal. I love Zykov and think he is going to be a force on the power play, but again the Canes will need the puck to be effective. Necas might be an outstanding center at some point this season–but a look at other excellent young centers indicates that face-off prowess develops over several seasons.
So the PP units: #1= Aho/Teravainen/Svechnikov/Staal/Hamilton
#2=Williams/Zykov/Necas/Skinner (or someone from a Skinner trade)/Faulk (or Pesce if Faulk is moved).
I agree that the personnel last year was some of the issue. Though Hanifin was actually on the second unit last season as Faulk was on the first. The two units for this season will both be upgrades. The one big challenge will be winning face-offs.
I don’t disagree about Staal or faceoffs. Just goes to show that the Canes still do not have top scoring forward talent and that will likely still show up on the PP. They should be better, but I don’t expect them in the top half of the league.
Gosh! I am amazed at those of us who keep beating the drum of TD being cheap. We got Calvin deHaan. We got him at a good price, but not cheap. Well?
I am also weary of hearing those of us who would contend that Roddy can’t coach. Great players who are great coaches are the exception to the rule, you say?
Well, I just took a look at a list of Jack Adams Award winners. I am sorry but I saw quite a few names of coaches on that list who had been great players. And that’s just a list of the number ones for the year. I am certain that each year there were great coaches who didn’t win the award.
If you know any employees of the Carolina Hurricanes ask them if Tom Dundon is cheap.
I would not get too upset about the outcry over cheap ownership and coaches without experience. In every walk of life there are people who need to complain almost as much as the need to breathe.
The coaching staff looks solid to me.One assistant coach held the same position for the Stanley cup winning team in 2006. The other coached in the NHL for several years. Rod has not been a head coach but his natural leadership and understanding of the game should serve him well.
As to being cheap, the ownership has done what they said they would do. They have made serious changes to the roster and the staff. They have addressed things that were performing poorly. They told fans accountability would be important. Good for them. They have begun renovations, want to make improvements to the scoreboard, and made a solid free agent signing. All good things in my opinion. Dundon has been majority owner for six months roughly. The canes will not be transformed to a big market team in six months. But again if complaining makes some fans happy they can do that.
Don’t call me “upset” – you can call me “skeptical”, as I have been since the announcement was made. It’s a question mark for me and, I think, a legitimate one. His ability to actually be a head coach is a significant factor in the team’s ultimate success and we, quite frankly, have no track record – although we do have a previous history with a former great player as coach who didn’t work out.
As for employees, ask chuck Kaiten (well, he is no longer an employee). TD promised a major update in management, the update was more of a reshuffle. Sometimes reshuffles work. But you can’t say one thing and not do it, not unless you publically back off and admit you made a mistake.
I’m not presenting those views of the team as my own, only as what I consider a perfectly legitimate way to look at it, it’s up to the team to prove the doubters wrong. Yes, this view is possibly my own, I am still torn on which version I believe in. I know which one I want to believe in, but I work in analytics and there’s a lot of is and hopes in the outlook.
The canes have 3 primary needs going into the offseason, upgrade in goal, upgrade in scoring, upgrade on defense.
Signing Mrazek is not a clear upgrade in goal, though it is money saving.
The upgrades in scoring we are hoping for come from unproven rookies, nothing has been done to add NHL scoring power to the forwards (yes, there were some sideways trade of bottom 6 players and hopefully their skillset can create scoring). If skinner is traded away the scoring may actually have been downgraded. It could well happen. None of us hope so, but it’s not as far out of the realm of possibility as the rose colored glass view may suggest. TD could have made a free agent splash, e.g. a lucrative deal to JVR for a short-term. The team has a very favorable cap situation right now.
There has been an upgrade on defense, no arguing with that, and I am happy about it.
Remember, we’re all free to our views, no need to get all personal if everyone doesn’t share the rose colored view of the canes as the next NHL miracle. For me there are too many questionmarks. It doesn’t mean that I don’t want it to happen, only that I do not see the amazing things you see with this team as it is right now. I see potential, but the thing with potential, it doesn’t necessarily turn into results, and with 4 or 5 potentials that we are betting on, the chances are 50/50 or worse for the upcoming season.
Again, if the team proves me wrong, damn, it would be truly awesome,
“Remember, we’re all free to our views, no need to get all personal if everyone doesn’t share the [same] view of the canes…”
Agreed.
No personal names in my post. Do you somehow feel called out? If so, you called yourselves out. The last line in my post also said if complaining makes someone happy they can do that. No effort to silence different views.
As far as rosy view and overly optimistic, not really. The team will probably fight for a wild card and may or may not get it. But after so many years of Pete Karmanos, exhibit A for cheap owner, the current leadership seems to be doing alright.
Well the goalie situation is so obvious that nothing more need be said…
Our forward rookies show promise, and I’ll be disappointed if they provide less than a significant upgrade from last year! Necas and Svech ARE THE SHINY NEW TOYS, but I think Wallmark, Foegele, and Zykov will be making the best ADD…just my gut opinion!
Our D sure looks like the most prominent, promising part of the team (with or without Faulk)!
My hope is that the D and O help hide the GKS deficiency, or that NED becomes THE SAVIOR…OOH I KNOW THAT ISN’T LIKELY, BUT…
I HAVE ZERO CONFIDENCE IN THE OTHER GUYS!
What? We’ve completely dropped the cheerleader discussion already? Disappointed in what this group has become. Back to pickleball chat rooms.
ten. I started the cheerleader discussion. My opinion is that they are probably the worst treated employees (this is not based on anything specific about the Canes by from publicity that came out of an suit against an NFL team).
But my point was they don’t pay for themselves. So if TD and his supporters are being sincere about moving on from parts of the organization that lose money (Chuck K), then cheerleaders have to go. I would be willing to bet cheerleaders don’t go. Therefore, everyone arguing that Kaiton was strictly a business decision is missing the point. Quod erat demonstrandum.
My comments regarding cheerleaders have nothing to do with the Hurricanes or Hurricanes ownership. I simply don’t get the appeal of cheerleaders in any professional sporting event. I know I’m in the minority in here with that particular view.
ten. We are in that minority together. I think it is pointless–the crowd’s enthusiasm at a professional sporting event is driven by the game.
Though as I said, I do think the cheerleaders are poorly treated by their organizations. In the Canes’ case, it is indefensible to defend “just business” reasoning when there is no business reason for this part of the organization.
Hey tenininumee! I am still ready to defend the cheerleaders. I am going into the PNC tomorrow morning to pick my new seats for my STMs. But I am adamant. No cheerleaders, no tickie!
I forgot to mention in my post above that some of us on this site say that rather than changing the management, all TD has done is shuffle people around. Well, Bill Peter’s has been shuffled off to Calgary. Yay! Ronnie Francis has been shuffled out the door. Rick Dudley was brought in. As were Dean Chy….(can’t spell it), Jeff Daniel’s, and Tim Gleason. I guess a thin case can be made for shuffling.
I say to the nay-sayers, knock your selves out. When the trade deadline rolls around in Feb., I will be there to say, “I told you so.”
Oh! By the way, Eklund is floating the rumor that Columbus is interested in Skinny. For Panarin? Hmmm! A fella can dream can’t he? Just like with the cheerleaders. I know! I’m a dirty old man.
Columbus and Carolina may have the same issue…a player that wants out. Not sure Panarin would want to come here, but I’m pretty sure Skinner would veto a trade to Columbus. Can you imagine Skinner playing for Torts?
Kind of like Neal playing for BP. I would still love to be a fly on the wall in that locker room.
There is much being made by some claiming that we lack scoring forwards. I think a certain exercise might be fun.
The year we won the cup, we had one player who scored over 40 goals. Three players each had over 30 goals. Two had over 20. A team like that would take us deep into the playoffs.
Given the talent we have now, as well as a free wheeling offense minded team, can we predict who among our roster could be one of those scorers?
Example: Aho 45 goals
TT. 31 goals
Zykov 35 goals
Svech 30 goals
Willy 25 goals
Staal 20 goals
Dougie 20 goals
Ferland 25 goals
McGinn 20 goals
Skinny. 45 goals
Carrick 15 goals
I know. I know. The analytics don’t support such a prediction. Just remember. In his rookie year, Staal scored fewer than 15 goals. His next year in the NHL, he scored 45. Some things are difficult to predict. The human element.
Eric Staal scored 45 goals the year we won the Cup.
My prediction for Staal this season is, of course Jordan Staal.