Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is part 2B of what became a three-part series that suggests that the path higher in the standings and up into the playoffs could very well be hiding within the current roster. Part one took a somewhat painful look backward into a 2017-18 season that on average did not see the team improve from the 2016-17 campaign. Part 2A considered a possibilities at goalie and on the blue line for the team to improve from within as young players continue to grow and veterans who slipped in 2017-18 look to rebound. Today’s part 2B considers forwards currently on the roster who could have more to give in 2018-19.
Forwards
Jeff Skinner
Arguably at the top of the list whose production was down in 2017-18 but rise and be a gain in 2018-19 is Jeff Skinner. Skinner surged late to reach 37 goals in 2016-17 but then fell to 24 goals in 2017-18. At a basic level, the Hurricanes 24th ranked offense would benefit from a rebound and his 2016-17 goal total. But the Holy Grail would be if Skinner found chemistry with a pair of line mates and could boost not just his production but that of an entire line. The questions with Jeff Skinner run the gamut. Could the coaching change be all he needs to reach a higher level? Would he benefit from better line mates, or is he just an independent offensive entity? Would higher scoring actually help his defensive play like in 2016-17 because he presses less to score? Or is he destined to be a good up and down offensive player who never truly rounds out his game to be a good all-around player?
Victor Rask
Also from the category of somewhat disappointing offensively in 2017-18 is Victor Rask. After consecutive seasons pushing close to 50 points and potentially on the brink of finding another level offensively, Rask went the opposite direction in 2018-19. He started slow offensively and only found a moderately higher gear offensively after the calendar flipped to 2018. Rask’s respectable two-way play held up reasonably well through his offensive downturn, but with a $4 million salary, he would be really pricey if he becomes an above average fourth-line center (at least by traditional line numbering). The question is whether Rask can find a higher gear himself and/or be lifted by chemistry and line mates. Regardless of how it happens, as the team is constructed right now, it could definitely benefit from a Rask return to mid to high 40s scoring.
Elias Lindholm
Whereas Jeff Skinner and Victor Rask are both players who have produced at a higher level in the past, Elias Lindholm is the case of a player who could still have another level that he has yet to reach. After a slow start as an 18-year old in the NHL, he has grown to become a solid complementary top 9 forward who provides decent depth scoring. After consecutive 39-point seasons prior, Linholm jumped to 45 and 44 points in the past two seasons respectively. The question is whether he is a bit of a late bloomer offensively and still has another level to be reached of if he just what he is at this point in his career.
The fourth line
Predicting exactly who the personnel will be is a crap shoot at this point in time, but regardless of who the players are, there clearl will be room for improvement. In 2017-18, Joakim Nordstrom had two goals in 75 games, Marcus Kruger one in 48 games and Josh Jooris three in 31 games. Even for a fourth line, that simply is not enough depth scoring, especially for a team that lacked a high-end first scoring line. Be it more youth or be it another try at the free agent market, the fourth line has the 2017-18 set a low bar for a new group to do much better in 2018-19.
Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen
To be clear, the Finnish duo had a strong 2017-18 season offensively, so their story is not one of redemption and needed improvements. If they match their 2017-18 mid-60s scoring totals, that would be a solid contribution. But here’s the thing…The team needs to find more offense somewhere. Might it actually be easier to get more scoring out of players who have a knack for it and get a healthy helping of power play ice time versus trying to squeeze a couple goals here and there out of less-skilled players? I do think Aho and Teravainen are capable of being point per game players, but I also think it requires a good complementary line mate. Is it possible that Valentin Zykov who played well with the duo for a short stretch at the end of the season is the answer? Or does the team need to add one more proven scoring forward to help them reach the next level?
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these players do you see making the greatest leap in terms of offensive production in 2018-19?
2) Are there any other forwards that you think could do enough more to help boost the team offensively?
3) Is it possible to make the gains needed with a balanced lineup that includes a better fourth line and mostly the current group plus infusions of youth? Or does the team need outside help?
Go Canes!
1) Lindholm. Several of the wiser regulars here have shown me the error of my ways. A few months ago, I believed Lindholm made more sense continuing at RW. But now I agree that at center he will thrive. If Lindholm gets a chance to center a line with Svechnikov, then 60 points is likely.
2) Brock McGinn. I think a lot of Canes’ fans underestimate his goal-scoring. Two comparisons. McGinn scored 13 even-strength goals in 80 games averaging 13 minutes at even strength. Gabriel Landeskog scored 17 ES goals averaging 15 1/2 minutes in 78 games; Alex Galchenyuk had 10 ES goals averaging a little more than 13 minutes in 82 games. Both those players had signficantly more assists, but much of that is because they played on scoring lines the entire season. With more potent line mates, it is reasonable to think McGinn could produce 20/45.
3). Balance!!!! The youth infusion (Svechnikov, Zykov, Foegele in place of Ryan, Kruger, Di Guiseppe) will produce more–especially if all four lines have some offensive potential.
All that being said, I am not opposed to outside help. I, and I think just about all of us, would be surprised if one or two forwards (most likely Skinner/Rask) aren’t traded. If the return is a solid forward with scoring potential, then 4 lines with situational strengths makes sense. There have been rumors of LA being interested in Skinner. For the sake of argument, lets say Skinner returns Tanner Pearson and a prospect/pick. Then the lines might be:
Zykov/Aho/Teravainen
Foegele/Staal/Martinook
Pearson/Lindholm/Svechnikov
McGinn/Rask/Williams
All those lines have some offense with the benefit that the Staal line would be highly disruptive. On paper, that is a much better lineup than at any time last season.
I don’t see how Skinner fits on this team any more. He’s been around a while now. His up and down offense has been through a couple coaching staffs while his poor defensive play has been consistent. He is who he is at this point, in my opinion I find it difficult to believe he fits playing for a head coach who is all about responsibility which would include defense.
I have been quite disillusioned with the play of Rask. At the same time his game degraded throughout the Peters regime. I think he could rebound under Brind’Amour, but I would have him on a short leash. If the lack of effort rears it’s ugly head I would be done with him for good.
Not sure what it is with Lindholm, but 5 on 5 he seems to have zero offensive instincts. Again, maybe this was the effect of Peters. Sounds like Lindholm is Brind’Amour’s pet project this coming year, and he should consider himself lucky. Hopefully, Lindholm has more offense in him, but he is a solid defensively even if he could use a bit more grit on a regular basis. I figure he will learn something over the next year or so to define himself as a NHL player. Two-way threat or gritty defensive forward?
The fourth line was a revolving door this year with a lot of poor play. I thought Nordstrom was an exception. He was as good a penalty killer as the Canes had. Those guys are important. Nordstrom has scored more in the past and could use a couple better linemates, but I would keep him just for his PK play.
What do you guys think of the Canes latest signing, the Finish winger dude?
Is that an insurance policy for Zykov to play with Aho and TT o a first line? I was surprised because I thought the Canes had a lot of the top 9 ish wingers in the system. My best guess is chemistry with Aho and TT.
Congratulations to Aho for being voted top forward in the IIHF. That should make us Canes fans proud.
I wonder if Skinner can find a home on a line with Lindholm at center and another big winger from the system, or maybe PDG if we resign him, which I think unlikely.
Skinner could fetch a decent return and it’s hard to fit him in with the system, but he has scored over 30 goals twice. Such guys cannot be found on the street.
Rask has more to give. I think McGin could surprise, if he can work a bit more on his shot.
The 4th line must improve by about 20 goals/50 points, whoever ends up manning it.
Nordstrom would be a good keep as a 13th forward, especially if he can work on his shot, or maybe just get more puck luck.
1. Without a doubt, Jeff Skinner. He is on a contract year. He has pride and wants to redeem himself. He will be on a team that wants him and he will have well-defined roles and responsibilities that match his skillset. Hmmm, did I mention he would be doing all this wearing a different uniform next season?? 🙂
RBA has already said that he wants to help Staal improve his offensive output, so I am going with Staal. If you can consider Staal shifting his game from a power-forward possessions focus to a power-forward scoring focus, with a coach that backs that, he could be a beast. I like that idea.
2. Similar to Staal, RBA has specifically mentioned wanting to improve the play of Lindholm. Lindy plays best and scores most when he is playing with an edge. Lindy may just be RBA’s style of player if RBA can get that edge back into Lindy.
3. I cringe when I hear “mostly the current group” – back to the approach we defined as “insanity” last year, which is directly counter to statements by Waddell and TD. We can’t go into next season with the same roster. Upgrading the 4th/disruptive line and providing more legitimate scoring is critical – and that might have even been a healthy Kruger. Kudos to him for making it through the season with his hernia injury. Crud to the coaching and management for not putting him on the shelf and upgrading if even on an interim basis while he recovered.
And some of the “mostly the current group” cringe comes from culture – we need a reboot and I would like to see 4-6 forwards replaced. I have a soft spot for the Checkers but I know we need a veteran or two as well – not the mythical 1C, of course.
A properly balanced set of 4 lines is the right direction.
I can’t see Skinner still being here next year. He’s the name everyone’s dropping in rumors and I’ve heard – friend of a friend style – that his attitude has gotten so shitty that no one in the locker room wants him around anymore. I also don’t expect to get much for him considering he’s got one year and a NMC.
Secondary scoring should improve. I think Rask will bounce back a bit and McGinn will see a couple of those posts become goals. I’m skeptical that Staal has much more to offer offensively under RBA. I think Lindholm’s fix is deployment. When he’s playing with scorers he seems to find an intensity and plays at a higher level.
The keys to a next gear are going to be how ready and how good Necas and Svech – would love to see Lindholm center Svech – actually are and what comes back if Faulk is traded. Does Faulk+ fetch ROR?
1. I think Lindy has the most to gain points-wise. He was drafted for his skillset at 5OA. He’s proved it before at lower levels and while a slow start in the NHL has made many think twice, he’s compiled a few decent years and at least has the skill.
2. Outside help (via trade) and our 2OA selection will boost scoring beyond our existing group.
3. Sticking with the current group is a non-starter. Bring up some AHL talent and insert a few additions via trade.
I think your observations on Lindholm are spot on. I think he can be a top six center. Yet his play on the wing with Staal would be a top shutdown line in the league. I am torn on position but want him to be a part of the long term core.
1. Lindholm. tj already said it, RBA has specifically mentioned him. We’ve all seen his higher gear before, he just never truly found it last year. If anyone can find it, I’d put some money on Rod.
All that being said, Aho will be a sneaky choice for a huge breakout too. While this isn’t standard by any means it’s usually in their third year that an NHL star truly breaks out with the combination of talent and experience. If Aho takes that step, than we might be looking at an 80 point threat next year.
2. I think Rask and Skinner have more to give and hopefully can find that gear next year, if still with the team.
Lessthanstable, respectfully friend, I have to take issue with you directly. If we’re looking at the 2016-17 season, we have no such issues with Skinner or Rask, as Skins put up 37 goals, and Rask was a high 40s scorer. Fast forward one year and we’re completely disillusioned? Down years are a thing, and I don’t see how it would be unreasonable to expect either or both of them to bounce back. Maybe they stay down, but I don’t see that myself.
3. No, the team does not NEED outside help. Could it benefit with some in the short-term? Probably but I think the best thing for the team long term is to give these kids spots to fight for and let them learn. There is nothing I want more from a Foegele, for example, than to get a full season learning from Justin Williams. Let the kids learn and grow.
Honestly, I’ve always had issues with Skinner’s game. I don’t buy into the value of goal scorers if that is all they add to the team. They can’t be terrible in the defensive and neutral zone. It torpedoes the entire “responsibility” premise. Also, Skinner’s offensive output has been inconsistent for quite some time now. I can’t put this one on Peters. Skinner has been this way for a couple of coaching groups. Throw in the potential that he will be a UFA and now is the time to get something for him. If he doesn’t improve this coming season no one will give the Canes squat for him at the deadline.
Rask’s decline began the second half of 16-17. At times he has been OK, but other times he has been bad..really bad. Yes, I was disillusioned when that happened with a guy that just signed a big long term deal. As I’ve said maybe it was the Peters effect with Rask. I’m all for giving him a fresh start, but you can’t forget the effort issues if they come back again.
I think the whole Canes locker room was getting toxic last year, a combination of Peters 4th line favoritism and a losing is acceptable dynamic. Of course I have no resources for this other than post game player interview.
Look at Eric Staal. He got traded away and had a 40-goal season.
Rod is a leader and motivator. I think he could do a lot with the locker room attitude that may help force players, including Skinner, out of their current funk.
Im not opposed to trading Skinner, especially given that he has no obvious spot in the lineup, but only if he wants a fresh start and if the other team is willing to give us a true building block in return, but I am not for trading him away for pennies on the dollar to dump his contract and see another ex Cane get a 40 goal season.
If retained, put Skinner with Lindholm and a big, mean, and defensively responsible right winger and see what happens.
The majority of last seasons disappointments start and end with Scott Darling. I think his subpar performance started frustrating players no end, which is why improvements in goal are the team’s #1 priority, as discussed on the other thread.
I think that two players will step up their game next season in particular. Aho has demonstrated to me at least that he can handle center duties. I wouldn’t send him against the other teams best line if possible but Aho, TT, and ? will give the canes a very solid scoring line. This will have other players slotted in roles more consistent with their abilities. Aho’s continued growth will make the whole team better.
The second forward who will lift the play of the team is the Russian. I can’t see a scenario where he is not on the canes in October. He will make the center he plays with better. I say Rask but if Lindholm is the guy, OK. I think it would be awesome to see a Lindholm, Rask, and the Russian together, if Lindholm is at center.
I think the fourth line will be better because the overall talent will be better. Martinook would have been a third line player in years past but may be an extra forward this fall.
Outside help if acquired in a trade would be great. Signing big dollar free agents doesn’t make sense to me, yet. Winnipeg demonstrated patience and it is paying off as they made the western finals. Carolina in free agency should not hamstring the team with a long term contract that gets worse every year.
Great posts by all. Really appreciate the reasonable perspectives from everyone.
Solid points all jm. Especially the free agent bit. My sole concern is with Martinook though. He put up Krugeresque numbers in Arizona, and his best year is about on par with Nordstrom’s best year. If he’s a solid NHL player great, but it would not surprise me in training camp, if Foegele or even Kuokkanen might prove better options for blend of offense and defense on the 4th line. But then, I can’t even begin to speculate on which, if any of them, will be able to survive a Rod camp satisfactorily, though. Except Julien Gauthier, because he also works out to live and that bromance is inevitable. Dude needs more AHL time but is an NHL dark horse on average gym time alone.
If Martinook is a 13th forward this team will be back to playoff caliber. He may get more games early due to experience and showing the new team what he has.
I think we’re going to see some addition by subtraction this offseason and that will completely change the mojo for most of the team – isn’t that the goal, to change the mojo through trades? – so it’s really hard to make any prediction other than speculating on each player’s ceiling.
And by the way, if there is change, it makes no sense to fret over what any traded player does on another team – some will do better for sure – some may do way better – it only makes sense to worry about how our own players perform in the new environment.
The gains we need will come from youth, Svetch (assuming he’s the pick), and (hopefully) from the new chemistry we get from the total sum of the new team.
So long as they don’t trade Foegele. I feel like he is our most underrated prospect based on his clutch factor alone. He’s my second most untradeable prospect behind Necas.
We are on the Foegele bandwagon together. I don’t know if he will be a star but a coach and fan favorite for years to come.
I agree with you on the level of change to expect in the roster – and I actually expect some of our highly touted prospects will be in different organizations next season. You can’t sell a LW sniper with one year on his contract for a player with term, for example. And that all makes it difficult to discuss – which is why I rely on players who have been discussed and, presumably, players who should/will be untouchable.
1). All of the above. As Breezy said the locker room was toxic. Unless you can play the game effectively by yourself – which is impossible – the whole team gets pulled down. Every player has significant room to improve.
2). Svechnikov will make the team better immediately, if he makes it to the second slot. Carolina should have. very clear contingency plans for that.
Foegele, Zykov, and a surprise or two will be ready next year. McGinn may improve from heavy metal to string music.
3). I agree with Fogger. We would benefit from the right outside help, but don’t need it. Aho got the best player award at worlds, where there were many great players. We have some of the world’s highest potential players, if we can get them in the right system with the right mindset.
I think it matters how an ex Hurricane performs with a new team.
If such a player shines with a new team it is important to ask why he didn’t do the same with the Canes, especially if the trade for that player did not yield an important piece for this team.
The Jury is still out on the Eric Staal trade. He yielded a second round pick and a prospect (compare that to some of the trades this deadline that yielded 3 to 4 picks including a first round pick and a prospect, e.g. the Thomas Tattar deal).
I have to take a look to see what player was drafted with the second round pick from NYR, but though Serella has showed flashes of potential he is not in the regular conversation for an NHL spot.
If neither the pick nor the player works out the Canes traded away their captain for nothing, then the captain goes on to score 40 goals 2 years after being traded.
Of course the real mystery is why the Canes couldn’t resign E Staal after the Rangers decided not to qualify him with an offer, he signed a very reasonable contract with the Wild.
That’s all water under the bridge, but it is a lesson in caution and not to trade away a core player at any cost.
Skinner is one season removed from scoring 37 goals, 37 (and he scored 24 goals last season which we can all agree was the worst of his career). I think we shouldn’t just trade him for whatever we can.
I’m still for trading him, but not for giving him away when his value seems to be an at all time low, at least for those who follow the team.
I hear you about ex-players …
The EStaal thing was complicated: it seemed like GMRF decided to change the chemistry of the locker room by not resigning him; once that decision had been made, trading him at the deadline was the best way to obtain any value. I don’t remember anyone here second-guessing that decision at the time.
We got 2 2nd’s and Saarela: the 2016 2nd was part of the TT trade with Chicago, the 2017 was Luke Martin. I think we did way better than NYR in that trade. Not signing his as a UFA was a completely different decision.
I’m not advocating “giving away” anyone, especially Skinner. I also don’t think we will. I’m guessing here, but I don’t think he’d agree to a trade to a team that he wasn’t expecting to re-sign with; that would de-risk the trade for the partner to increase his value.
1. I think Skinner will bounce back in a big way entering a contract year. I expect him not to get traded since he has a full no movement clause. We need more scoring and he would be hard to replace. If he gets stronger line-mates he will excel. He is entering his prime and is a rare talent.
2. I predict Rask will be traded. Lindholm is our utility forward and is our insurance policy at RW when Justin Williams retires. Ideally, Aho and Teravainen make up the third scoring line but it remains to be seen if they will be paired with Zykov, Maenalanen or someone else. I could see Svechnikov on the top line with Skinner if they get the right 1C (I’m hoping for Ryan O’Reilly).
3. The team definitely needs experienced, gritty players with leadership traits from outside the organization to balance and protect our younger players.
Don’t forget Wallmark. We need to keep a spot open for him. He had the best point per game in AHL in 45 games of 1.22 per games with 17 goals and 38 assists. He is a play making in the mold of Aho. He is a sleeper who is fully capable of making the jump as well as Z and Foegele. Maybe pair him with Lindy and yet to he named player via trade of Skinner. One thing we need to give Francis credit for is the quality of forwards he drafted as well as trading for Saarela and McKeown. Wish I could say the same about goalie. If we can solve that perplexing problem then I am confident that we can be relavent for many years to come.
Lots of great points.
The more I research Martinook (his takeaway/giveaway ratio has been four or better 2 of last 3 seasons), the more comfortable I would be with him playing with Staal and Foegele. All those on the Foegele bandwagon are correct IMHO. He was the best even-strength goal scorer in the AHL. That is impressive for his rookie season as a professional . I like him with Staal, because Jordan is not a playmaker, but he does keep the puck for the Canes. In the AHL and in his two games in the NHL, Foegele displayed a talent for scoring without “being set up.” Foegele/Staal/Martinook would antagonize the opposition, get the puck into the offensive zone, and then Foegele could conceivably add more scoring punch than the entire fourth line last year. Staal will still get 15 or so goals. Martinook might even get 8-10.
I agree with Dixie that Wallmark has earned a chance. One or two NHL-ready players (maybe Martinook, maybe Wallmark, maybe Necas) will be getting more experience in Charlotte this coming season. That is a good problem.
Finally, if Skinner is getting moved, it will be the first real test of how competent the new management team is going to be. If they can make a one-for-one that provides a key addition, then the team will be much changed and I think maybe just improved enough to make the coming season different.