Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe had both ‘reasons to keep’ and ‘reasons to trade seven core players from the Carolina Hurricanes 2017-18 roster. I do think a change or two to the core could be a key ingredient to improving for the 2018-19 season, and I also think that a key addition or two possibly from the trades would help the process.
Gauging improvement from 2016-17 to 2017-18
But I also think that there are enough players with more to give on the current roster such that a significant amount of improvement is possible from the existing roster. As much as some (including myself) want to focus on the exciting possibilities like trades and additions, a quick player by player assessment of the 2017-18 roster shows why the Hurricanes did not make the playoffs. The young group in most cases did not improve from 2016-17. I have good intentions of doing more in-depth player by player assessments for the 2017-18 season but below is the bullet point version of it.
The blue line
I think Jaccob Slavin took a small step backwards. He had a stretch of lesser play in the middle of the season, was a weak link on the penalty kill and did not make any gains offensively. Brett Pesce had a comparable season but has yet to find a higher gear offensively. To be clear, both players had decent 2017-18 campaigns and fit nicely in the plan going forward, but I would not say that they were significantly better in 2017-18. Noah Hanifin made strides offensively but has yet to elevate his defensive play such that he could be an every-game top 4 defenseman. I consider his season mostly treading water and hopefully preparing for a break out. Justin Faulk continued to struggle defensively and also took a step down offensively dropping from 17 to 8 goals which makes his 2017-18 season less than the previous one. If one counts Haydn Fleury as the team’s #4 defenseman, he had a decent rookie campaign but did not really provide a significant improvement for the #4 slot occupied by Ron Hainsey in 2016-17. If you evaluate Trevor van Riemsdyk in the third pairing role that he filled most of the season, he was the lone significant upgrade playing solid hockey in a slot that was a revolving door in 2016-17. Klas Dahlbeck also had a respectable season in the #7 slot. When I net it out, best case is that the blue line was comparable to the 2016-17 season, but I think I actually land slightly in negative territory saying that the group took a small step backward in 2017-18. For a position that has been considered the team’s future strength for a few years now, treading water was not good enough.
At forward
The story is much the same at forward. The Finnish duo of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen did take a significant step forward pushing up into the mid-60s for points after scoring only in the 40s a year earlier. One can also make a case for gains from Brock McGinn who scored 16 goals and collected 30 points despite minimum power play ice time and below average minutes overall. But those three players are probably the extent of any gains which is why the team again struggled to score goals. Jordan Staal and Elias Lindholm matched but did not better their 2016-17 seasons with decent all-around play but still a sub-50 ceiling for points. The limited scoring was even more significant for Staal who played with Aho and Teravainen but did not really convert the favorable situation to more scoring. Even with a small drop in goal scoring, I think Justin Williams produced about as expected but not enough to lift the team above its 2016-17 pace. Despite being hitched to Bill Peters and maligned a bit by the fan base for it, Derek Ryan did about what was probably reasonable to expect from him as a depth forward. Past that, the forward group is mostly misses. Jeff Skinner scored 13 fewer goals and regressed defensively again, and Victor Rask struggled to score early and was scratched before rebounding a bit late in the season. And somewhat surprisingly, the fourth line that added higher-end players was also a minus year over year. The group primarily of Joakim Nordstrom, Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris was front and center on a penalty kill that took a step backward and was light offensively even for a fourth line. Phil Di Giuseppe surged late but was not a difference-maker when the season was on the line, and Lee Stempniak mostly had his season derailed by an early-season injury. When I net it out, downturns by Skinner and Rask offset gains from Aho and Teravainen, the rest of the middle of the lineup was comparable to the previous season, and the fourth line was a negative. Not surprisingly, the average is ‘meh’ at best which lines up with the slight drop in ranking for scoring.
In net
Cam Ward took a modest but important step forward in transitioning to a backup role (which lasted about halfway through the season). His underlying statistics were not significantly better, but his winning percentage was impressive. The problem is that whatever the team gained in Ward, it lost twofold in Scott Darling. His level of play was mostly comparable to Eddie Lack’s with a key difference being that he played about 20 more games being a starter at least initially. When the dust settled on the 2017-18 season, the goalie position that offered significant room for improvement fell short again.
When I net it out, the fact that the Carolina Hurricanes missed the playoffs again was no travesty. The team did not make the strides necessary as a group to improve in total. As such, the team again found itself on the wrong side of the playoff cut line looking for mid-winter miracles that did not emerge.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Would you agree that the lineup for 2017-18 was at best break even compared to 2016-17 or more likely down slightly?
2) Do you disagree with any of my brief player assessments for 2017-18?
3) Which 2017-18 underperformance(s) most significantly caused the playoff miss?
Go Canes!
1) Agree. Fleury for Hainsey and Darling for Lack were downgraded. The forwards had an upgrade in personnel but not in performance as a group.
2) agree
3) the most important underperformance was behind the bench. We did not get the best out of the players or the team.
Watching team Finland at worlds is a pleasure. There is something different about their system that I can’t exactly describe, but enables them to destroy North American teams. They beat Canada 5-1 and USA 6-2. If RBA is looking for an assistant, he should look at team Finland coaches. The HC has been a champion at every level.
It is obvious that the team regressed this past season. An exciting team at the end of 16-17 season. An exciting offseason that saw the return of JW and the possibility of a top notch goalie leading the canes back to the playoffs.
You are right Matt, in your evaluation of the team. Some players improved, some did their job as expected, and some did a belly flop from the high dive board. As a result, vacation started early.
Are the Hurricanes as talented top to bottom as some teams? Not yet. Did too many players play in roles bigger than their talent? Yes. Should Carolina have been in the top eight from the east? I think so.
Too many times last season, the team got walloped and few seemed to care. Too many times they lost in the last few minutes or seconds of a game and the locker room seemed to not be accountable enough.
If losing is acceptable than a culture change is needed and should be expected. We can blame the coach, an inactive GM or whatever. The team will not get better until everyone from the owner to Stormy hates losing and will put in the work to be ready for every game.
When Coach Rod made the statement about having 20 JWs he was spot on.”They would be slow but they would win.” They would win because losing is not acceptable and the team is more important than the individual.
I see a bounce back possible for many players. I see a new address for some. I hope we see a team next year committed to each other and winning hockey games.
Soooo, I’m torn between the fact that you’re right a hatred of losing does lead to a higher likelihood of winning, and the fact that I find ‘losing is unacceptable’ to be a silly notion. I hate losing as much as the next guy, and losing sucks, but it’s also part of life. Being able to handle loss and adversity and grow from it is how we win at life. I still haven’t grasped how this does not apply in sports yet.
I love hockey. Winning or losing will not change my love of hockey. I just want to go to games and see an entertaining product, and yes ideally a winning team, but it’s not essential to my enjoyment of the game.
To put in the work, to commit to the goal and compete for a Cup is something that should always be striven for and serve as the drive for professional hockey players, but at the same time 31 teams lose every year and that’s just part of sports life.
I get that I’m in the minority on this, but I had a lot of fun watching Teuvo and Sebastian on the ice last year, though the goaltending did not do good things for my heart. I’m going to have a great time watching hockey this year too, especially with the number 2 pick coming in. Winning or losing wouldn’t have a major effect on that. Obviously complacency is not going to get us to the goal, but one can accept that losing is a reality, while still busting their ass to achieve a goal. Right?
1) Surprisingly it was the “NHL-ready” additions that were down: Kruger, Jooris, Darling. Basically everyone except Williams and TVR, who really wasn’t considered a veteran pick-up. The youngsters either did better (Aho, Teravainen, McGinn) or were a mixed bag (Hanifian added some offense but struggled on D; Lindholm was slightly less effective most of the year but seemed to play better when moved to C). Slavin was fine but didn’t live up to the over-hyped expectations–as many were saying he would be in the Norris conversation.
2) Agree as well
3) Darling obviously–but to Asheville’s point I wonder how much of that was the system. I think most still agree that our young D has as much talent as all but 3-4 other teams, yet they don’t score nearly as much and give up too many dangerous chances. I can’t help but think it had something to do with the system.
All those assessments are fair. The regressions that cost us the most games were all on the defensive side of the puck:
a) lapses and breakdowns that led directly to goals against. It may not actually be true numerically but it sure seemed to be true. We would play solid defense and then out of nowhere we’d inexplicably have four guys focused on the puck in the corner and leave someone completely uncovered directly in front of the goal, etc. That didn’t seem to happen as much last year.
b) the PK regressed from elite to middling. If we missed Ron Hainsey at all, it was on the PK, because we never replaced him with anyone as effective.
c) obviously, our overall goaltending went backwards (even if CW was better in his new role).
We entered the season thinking that our team strength was from the backend out and it didn’t turn out to be true – in fact, the opposite was true.
I’ve been thinking about this and have concluded that having a calming influence in the form of a solid, gritty, chippy, stay-at-home veteran is still needed for our blue line, especially for a fast group like ours that wants to get out and skate up ice. Someone to teach our guys how to keep opposing forwards from parking it in front of the blue paint, or at least willing to punish them (and getting punished) for trying. I think that element is missing from our current lineup and is still needed in today’s NHL; finding that player should be an offseason priority.
Dmilleravid, absolutely agree with your assessment of the d. I think a guy like McQuaid from Boston would have a huge impact on the canes d. 3rd pairing, reasonable contract, been in the trenches.
1 and 2. We went into the season thinking the lineup was better, with the addition of JW, and presumed upgrades on the 4th. But your assessment pretty much holds true, as much as it is about individual players.
3. On an individual basis there was underperformance from the past (Skinner, Rask, Faulk) and undperformance from the expected (Darling, Kruger, Jooris).
But I completely agree with dmilleravid’s statement on team underperformance – all those breakdowns in the defensive zone – and unit underperfomance (the PK was the obvious; but the PP also has to be considered as underperforming when you think of the troubles it had with the offensive-mindedness of Aho, Turbo, Skinner, Faulk, Hanifin.
Mulling this over – if Smith runs the PK and was responsible generally for play in the offensive zone, to what can we attribute his year-over-year underperformance??
Smith had a top PK in 16-17. I think he can bounce back with right players.
DMilleravid – I concur 100% on the need for an enforcer and protector on the ice and even as important get a solid goal tender. We need to get rid of the Candy Cane culture. I will throw out a idea……… as much as I dislike Radko Gudas he is the type of player we need. Our penalty minutes would go up but players opposing player would have him in the back of the head at all times he is on the ice. Now for goalie……how bout we try and get one of the Fyers (Neuvirth or Lyons) via trade. They have ample players in their system to replace them. Skinner/Rask and a prospect might make it happen. I also would like to see us draft one of the top 5 goalie prospect in the early rounds to build the pipeline behind Ned, Booth, and Helvig. We got nothing in the bigs now.
BTY – Necas scored in the Chex loss today and Gudas had a assist.
Dixie. I think there might even be better options than Gudas.
My first thought was San Jose–with the window of opportunity closing for Pavelski, Burns, and definitely Thornton–they might be really interested in Skinner. I would ask for Justin Braun and a pick/prospect. He is a veteran with good size. He has averaged almost 21 minutes the past 5 seasons. He would be able to have much the same role Hainsey had. Braun is listed as a right-shot RHD, so he might be a great partner for Hanifin.
While there are definitely going to be some more exciting options if Skinner is traded, I think it is important to realize how the new players fit into the existing puzzle of making the Canes more successful. This is just one option.
Braun is a very underrated dman. Basically a younger right handed Ron Hainsey. He is the type of guy the Canes need, but to be fair to TVR Faulk and Pesce I would be willing to give that group another shot at manning the right side. With Mckeown also knocking on the door I’m not eager to shuffle the d-corps unless there is significant value to be gained.
Given more time Pesce can do everything Braun does and more. TVR is a high end 3rd pairing dman while Faulk is the real wild card. Despite Faulk’s issues defensively the past 2 seasons the offense he provides is difficult to replace.
I agree with ct that there are better options than Gudas. I also think there are better goalie options than any of the three in Philly. I think they’re still shopping for one, too.
1. One word comes to mind…”stagnant”. This was the case in all three zones. While we had a few players improve, others regressed and did not perform up to snuff.
2. No real disagreements on the above assessments. And in some cases, TVR actually helped leverage our defense to not appear too subpar.
3. Not sure we can pin the playoff miss on a particular player or position. The two problems I see… A) the team relied on too many 30-40pt producers hoping they would become more…and… B) A few of our key players collectively had down years. The result is a mediocre team.
Not about Matt’s questions but curious as to everyone’s thoughts on…
Carey Price..
Yesterday Montreal stated they are listening on everyone including Weber & Price..
What would everyone think about Faulk & Skinner for Price deal… maybe throw in a pick ???
The salaries would just about equal out at @ 10 mil each way. Would “hopefully” solve our goaltending issues & give Mon the top Dman they are seeking plus a scoring threat to replace Patches when they trade him.
We can sign a UFA scorer & if we add Necas & Svechnikov, they could replace Skinner’s scoring without the non-existence defense.
Just a thought…
The contract Price signed is going to look awful in a few years. I wouldn’t want to take it on.
Price is a great player but 1/8 of your salary cap in one player is too much. It will be more if the salary cap does not go up to 80 million.
All good comments above except I don’t think we can blame Darling’s woes on the “system”. By all accounts he came into camp out of shape. No further comment on that.
The upcoming trades will probably be controversial and could involve players we may not expect. Some other random comments – 1) Foegele and Zykov made immediate positive impacts; 2) Wallmark had 55 points in 45 games in Charlotte and deserves an NHL shot, however AHL success doesn’t always equate to NHL success (former Cane Chris Terry led the league in total points).
We need a defenseman with a chip on his shoulder and steps up and protects his teammates. I threw Gudas out as an example of the type of player we need. Who that may be I don’t know but hope DW and RBA find one that fits.
As to the Flyers they are stacked with goalies. I saw and heard the kid Lyon take on the high power Checkers and shut them down. I think he had a .975 save % in the series. I was enamored by his rebound control and ability to make the big saves. Reminded me of Ward in the cup run. I am so ready for the day we have a goalie that we have confidence in. Hopefully sooner than later.
I love Matt’s articles and the comments on this site. As a fan, I read other sites but don’t post to them. This is the non-twitter site, where thoughts are expressed in full, and respectfully considered by other participants. Good stuff.
That said, this article says part one. Matt, I look forward to part two.