Let me start by saying that as we sit right now I am cautiously optimistic about the 2018-19 season. Through 29 games, the team is roughly where it started the season which is at the playoff cut line with a number of other teams and needing at least one burst of really good hockey to push above that line. Further, it is possible to make it to the playoffs and further with balance and not a ton of elite talent.
The winning formula
But all of that said, the most common formula for regular success in the NHL is to have a core of elite players. The good version of the Blackhawks a few years back had exactly that in Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith. The Penguins have long lived and died by the ability of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to lead two great lines and put the team on their backs when necessary. The Washington Capitals have Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. The rising leaders of the current NHL are no different. Toronto is led by a collection of young guns in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and newly-added John Tavares. Tampa Bay features Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman. The Winnipeg Jets have Patrik Laine and Mark Scheifele. And the Calgary Flames have Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk.
The commonalities are twofold. First, these teams have two or more top-end offensive players capable of driving scoring lines. Second, these teams have been able to add such players largely through the draft.
The Hurricanes inability to match up
In terms of reaching this level, the Hurricanes fall short in both regards.
As far as top-end offensive players, I would count only Sebastian Aho as being in this category. Jordan Staal who would have a case for being the team’s second best forward is a good and valuable player, but he just is not a pure scorer or offensive catalyst. And though the upside might be there, I would not consider any of Teuvo Teravainen, Micheal Ferland or the promising batch of young players to be in this category yet. As such, the Hurricanes are light on top-end scoring talent.
The previous hope 2013-15
In addition or I guess possibly related, I think one could argue that where the Hurricanes ultimately come up short is converting top draft picks into true top-end difference-makers. The team has had good success with middle round picks in the past 5-6 years converting Sebastian Aho (2nd round), Jaccob Slavin (4th round) and Brett Pesce (3rd round) into top half of the roster players. But the team has been unable in recent years to convert first round draft picks into catalysts for winning like the teams on my list above. The team did land Jeff Skinner with the #7 overall pick in 2010, but since then the team has been unable to find much for difference-makers in the first round. In 2011, the team took Ryan Murphy who never worked out and now seems to have a somewhat verified ceiling of a fringe NHLer. In 2012, the Hurricanes did not have a first round pick. The the next generation of hopefuls included Elias Lindholm at #5 in a deep draft in 2013, Haydn Fleury at #7 in 2014 and Noah Hanifin at #5 in another deep draft in 2015. As things stand now, the trio became only trade bait and a single depth defenseman.
Cross referencing those three draft years with the list of rising teams above is interesting. Toronto landed Mitch Marner one slot before Hanifin, William Nylander one slot after Haydn Fleury and Auston Matthews in the 2016 draft that saw the Hurricanes net Jake Bean and Julien Gauthier who are still developing in the NHL. Calgary selected Sean Monahan after Elias Lindholm and also landed Matthew Tkachuk in the 2016 NHL Draft. Winnipeg netted Patrik Laine with the #2 overall pick in the 2016 draft. Mark Scheifele is a bit earlier but was a Jets first-rounder in 2011. The story is much the same for the Penguins, Lightning, Capitals and Blackhawks who used a handful of early draft picks to find elite players who became the foundations of their success.
The next try
With 2013 and 2015 first-rounds Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin already out of the organization, the team turns to the next generation. Jake Bean and Julien Gauthier are now in their fourth season after the draft. The schedule has not been speedy, but both players still have the potential to emerge. But more significantly, the next try lies with 2017 and 2018 first-rounders Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov. Necas rose rapidly after being drafted 12th overall. His development faced a minor setback when his first try at the NHL level was ‘meh’ and rightly saw him sent to develop further in the AHL. He has since found a higher gear such that there is talk of an NHL return. Svechnikov continues to show the potential to be the perennial 30-goal scorer that he was labeled as entering the 2018 draft, but the v1.0 reality is that as of right now Svechnikov is a decent third-line forward who provides depth scoring. There is nothing wrong with that as a foundation for his ongoing development, but for a team that desperately needs a second or third top-end scorer, a Patrick Laine or Auston Matthews like boom out of the box would have been lovely.
As I said at the outset, I do think the potential is there for the current iteration of the Carolina Hurricanes to push up above the playoff cut line for the first time in what is almost a decade now. But the easier path to being above the fray comes from having a draft pick or two become home runs. As such, the development of Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov is something to keep a close eye on.
What say you Caniacs?
1) Am I being too harsh on the Hurricanes draft/development ability with first-rounders in recent years?
2) Despite so many examples to the contrary, do you think it is possible to build a perennial playoff team with more balance and minus much for top-end scoring?
3) Do you think that Martin Necas and/or Andrei Svechnikov can give the Hurricanes the elusive home run? If so, what do you see for timeline for each player?
Go Canes!
The Canes are on the cutline primarily because of the way they came out of the gate with scoring from everywhere and firing on all fronts.
If we discount the first 5 games the Canes would be well below the cut line and the recent trend of results is below treading water.
Things can change but there has to be a catalyst for such a change, the “keep doing the same thing, just try harder” is not going to help, especially when the injuries begin to mount and call ups are not used properly. I want to see one of two things happen, gunning for the playoffs this year, which means trying to change things, make a trade of D surplus for better forward depth, or a proper audition for the future, bring up the AHL players that are doing well on auditioning stints, even if you have to sit an under performing NHL player, honestly, try to tank to get one of the difference maker picks from the 2019 draft, which is rumored to be one of the deepest drafts in history.
I recommend bringing up the Checkers coach next fall, but there are a few faithful Caniacs would be outraged.
What I don’t want to see is yet another finish a few spots outside the playoff line with only a mmoddest pick in the middle of the first round.
As to the questions:
1. Absolutely not too harsh. It must be hard to find a team that has used their first round draft picks as badly as the canes over the last decade.
If we discount the last two years as a “wait and see” there’s basically not a single player on the roster from the Canes first round draft (fleury is on the fringe, so let’s say .5 players).
And the trade baits have been sold at flee market prices.
Skinner for a second round pick and a borderline AHL player (Skinner has 21 goals for Buf).
Hannifin and Lindholm for an under performing D men Calgary desperately wanted to get rid off, a promising prospect and Ferland, who is a decent top 6 / 9 ish forward (Lindholm has 16 goals, Hannifin has more points than any Canes d men).
2012 pick was basically traded for Jordan Staal, great guy, never panned out to be a superstar leader (and he wasn’t made to be one either, he’s one of the world’s best support cast player, but he needs a superstar to support).
If this is how you use your first round picks your chance of succeeding in the NHL is small unless you are a cool hockey market (Raleigh is not one, as much as I love the city and think the players are wrong) or you are willing to pay top dollar (based on TD’s tendency to trade away any player asking for a raise or a radio man wanting to finish his 40 year career with the team he’s been a part of I am pretty sure top dollar is not in the picture, the true test of TD’s commitment to a successful franchise is coming up with the resigning of Aho).
2. I’ve been trying to think of one. the Kings were a little more scoring by committee, but they had Kopitar, Quick and Doudy, so that’s not really accurate. Last year’s Bruins came to mind, but they also have a mix of an elite of aging center man and a couple of excellent first rounders.
Vegas comes closest, a cast of throwaway players with something to prove who almost made it.
3. I am optimistic about these two guys.
I”d give Svech until next eason to start rising and Necas either one or two years, I am hoping they will both emerge next season, which is why I am hoping the plan is to build a durable support cast and hopefully give them another star player.
We have not had a good track record lately of drafting and developing players who play well in Raleigh – that is not too harsh – but we’ve drafted very good players. Skinner, Lindholm, and Hannifin are producing elsewhere – as we all thought they might – so it’s not like all our picks have been busts. They’ve just not worked out in CAR. (The obvious question is why, but that’s for another day.)
I go back and forth on what it takes to actually win a Cup: a few great players dragging the rest of their team along; or a well-balanced squad with a few upper-echelon players. If you look at MIN or STL or SJO or ANA or NYR (until this year) or even TBY, they have all been very good for a long time but not good enough to win a Cup (ex-ANA along time ago). They make the playoffs consistently but always a player short of winning it all. That’s not a whole lot more satisfying – and in many ways it’s worse, being that close and yet that far away at the same time.
Today’s NAS and yesterday’s LAK are the two exceptions, but I would say NAS is much deeper than any of the teams listed above with a handful of excellent players and LAK played a more physical game (when that worked) that teams had trouble countering with a deep team. And let’s not forget goaltending: there’s no way to go deep without it.
We have no choice but to give Svetch and Necas time. They clearly have the talent to succeed at this level – and will – I just hope it’s in Raleigh.
Again – trades are coming. ANA is the template: groom and develop depth on the Blue Line and trade it for offense. We seem to be good at the former; let’s see if we can execute on the latter. Play to our strengths, I say.
The future may change things, but as of right now, I have the Preds and Blue Jackets as each league’s poster child for how hard it is to get over the hump led by depth over elite players. That said, I feel like the Predators continue to be on the brink with the potential to jump into the Cup category at any time.
But it really is striking how many of the top teams over the past decade or so were built around 2-3 truly elite players. Will be interesting to see if Aho can fully establish himself in that category and if anyone can join him.
I don’t think you are being too harsh at all. The Canes have not nearly gotten enough out of their first round picks in, well…forever! The Rutherford regime was the worst. Rutherford seemed to be in love with undersized players. We had a list of them for a while. Skinner made it. At least the Francis regime got away from the smaller players, but still has gotten little out of the first round. I’m not optimistic that any of the players the Canes have now outside of Aho is someone who you would call a “home run.” Not even Svechnikov. I like Svechnikov, but the comparisons to players like Laine or Ovechkin were way off. He doesn’t have that level of skill or shooting ability.
One of the problems these guys face in Carolina is the pressure. These top picks show up and are expected to save the franchise. They have few good players to play with and are thrown to the wolves. Take Skinner and Lindholm for example. Skinner is now in Buffalo playing with Jack Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen. Talk about an upgrade! Lots of skill there. Lindholm is now playing with Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau! The Canes have no one, other than Aho, in the class of those two. Maybe not even Aho!
It’s a viscous cycle. Draft a new guy, throw him in the NHL, give him average or worse linemates, expect him to be the difference, get disappointed when it doesn’t happen. The team and the fans do this. Look at all the pressure to put Svechnikov on the top line. He has been fine, but nothing special. Sure, he would play with Aho, but he would also see the other teams top defensive pairing and checking line. Keep him where he is and try to limit some of the pressure on him. That move isn’t going to win the Canes the cup. The “rearranging deck chairs” comment applies.
As for question #2? No.
We will see with Necas and Svechnikov. I was disappointed to see how clueless Necas was in the defensive and neutral zone. Shocked, really for a guy that was supposed to be playing professional hockey. I hope it’s because no one ever taught it to him as opposed to him being a guy that never listened or cared. Svechnikov will be a nice power forward at a minimum. Hopefully he will show more skill down the road, but will he be “the man?” Not sure.
The key to the Canes success in the next couple years will be how they deal with their overabundance of NHL level defensemen. If they aren’t going to play Fleury they need to move him while he still has value. My guess is he will be a solid defenseman somewhere. The Canes weren’t wild about Brian Dumoulin either and he turned out pretty good. The Canes also have to clear up the right side if they have any hope of signing Fox. If the Canes bumble the coming trades it will handicap them for a long time.
I completely agree that leveraging the blue line from a position of strength is critical. The team is 5 deep in terms of top 4 defensemen and Fleury and van Riemsdyk are close enough that some teams have to make due with players like this in the top 4. Interestingly, this also plays into making Carolina a more appealing destination for Adam Fox come April.
Especially for a team that is struggling to score, the overweighting on the blue line must be leveraged.
Though it is not because he is not playing well (he is right now), I am still in the camp of trading Faulk though if there is a market for Hamilton despite his struggles that would be the other option. I do not see it as viable to keep 5 top D long-term, so best is to capture value while you can.
dmilleravid and lts pretty much captured the gist of my thoughts on this subject so I don’t see the reason to re-state them.
It’s a team game, and I think it is a mistake to focus on players when it is the pieces around them that can make or break things. You can bring in great prospects, but if you don’t have the pieces around them in place – or go out and put these pieces in place around them – the players won’t succeed and neither will the team.
I think one issue we have as a team – our biggest and most veteran center (Staal) is not offensively minded and our best offensive center (Aho) is not big. That makes it tough for us to slot players around them, in my opinion. How much better would Svech be if we had a solid veteran with some size (not the proverbial unicorn “1C” – just a solid NHL veteran center) instead of a rookie who is also learning the NHL game.
And we have had to fight Peters’ perspective of “I want players who can play in the NHL and not players who might be able to play..”, and RBA’s on “hockey is a man’s game” and his emphasis on grit-and-grind.
The underperformance of our top prospects is less poor draft choice or even development – it is flawed utilization in a flawed team context.
What is an “elite player”?
What is a “pure scorer”?
How many of each does a team need in order to be a contender for the Cup?
Hint: There are as many definitions for each term mentioned above as there are those reading this post.
For the purpose of this post, we will use my definitions.
An “elite” player is one who does more than one aspect of the game consistently better than 98% of his NHL counterparts. And since the 98% of his counterparts are superbly talented, the “elite” player is not in abundance. This does not include goalkeepers. An “elite” goalkeeper is one who is recognized by his teammates first and then the rest of the NHL as a “money player” for longer than one or two seasons.
Hurricanes who are/were “elite” players; Ron Francis, Eric Staal, Keith Primeau, Rod Brindamour, Eric Cole, Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho. “Elite” keepers; none.
A “pure scorer” is a player who is totally focused on scoring goals. He is always heading for the enemy’s net. His stats always show his goal totals dwarfing his assist totals. No matter how bad the team around him is, he scores goals. It often seems as if he is a one dimensional player. He usually is. The “pure scorer” is quite rare.
Hurricane players who are/were “pure scorers”; Jeff O’Neill, Jeff Skinner.
So when we won the Cup (2005-06) we had 3 “elite players and 0 “pure scorers” on the team.
Last season’s Cup champion did it with one “elite” player (Ovi) and 0 “pure scorers”. I disagree with Matt and contend that Backstrom is not an “elite” player.
These historical facts must disturb the fancy stats fanalysts. How can this be? Winning can only be accomplished by assembling the most players with the best stats. Right? No. Not right at all. The exact opposite is true.
In the early 1970s the Philadelphia Flyers won 2 Cups. On that team, the Flyers had 3″elite” players and 1 “pure scorer”. They did have an “elite” goalkeeper.
Internationally there was a hockey team that was comprised of superbly talented and trained players. Most of these players were considered to be “elite”. Some of of them were considered to be “pure scorers”. As a team, they were unbeatable. It was the Red Army Team of the USSR.
They challenged the NHL to a series of games against an NHL all-star team, as well as games against NHL teams. The results were embarrassingly one-sided losses for the NHL. Only one of the games was close; a 3-3 tie with Montreal.
The Flyers were the last NHL team scheduled to play the Russians.
They would not have the services of their “elite” goalkeeper due to an injury.
But they did have a secret weapon. His name was Fred “the Fog” Shero. Shero had 0 NHL experience coaching when he joined the team. But he was a brilliant coach.
The Flyers won against the Russians.
As did the American Olympic team in 1980. The American team was not made up of “elite” players from college level. Instead, the team was chosen for each player’s ability to mesh well with the coach and the team. All stars need not apply.
Yes. Yes. I know. “The new NHL” and all that. But while the game might have changed, people have not. Roddy knows these young men. They are beginning to mesh nicely.
Let’s give them a chance.
First, I agree that “elite” and “pure scorer” are somewhat arbitrary. One good example you called out is Nicklas Backstrom who I bumped above the line but could arguably be just below. Regardless, he is close.
Thank you also for the tour through Hurricanes history. We could have a good debate on how to classify a few players, but I mostly agree with your lists.
That part also raises an interesting question surrounding the 2005-06 team. If you look only at the 2005-06 season, I would argue that all of Stillman/Staal/Cole (that line was easily among the best in the league that year) and also Brind’Amour and Whitney played at an elite level that season. But those players were not all elite throughout their careers. So that seems to raise the argument for chemistry, magic, lightning in a bottle or whatever else playing a big role in winning it all.
So maybe there is a case for building a team with enough good players with high ceilings and hoping that they have that one magical season just like the 2005-06 team did.
Pardon the “fly by” comment but your questions “Who is elite?’ and “Who is a pure scorer? remind me of the answer offered by a politician to the question, “What is porn?’ He said “you know it when you see it.”
As is often the case, the Daily Cup of Joe itself merely served as the appetizer for the great reader comments/discussion that followed.
Rather than one jumbled comment, I will comment on a couple of the great inputs directly up above.
Just read Tom Dundon’s comments from the Triangle Business Journal yesterday. Sheesh. What a clown. We are going to see what happens when a fan, one who only recently started to watch hockey, runs a NHL franchise. The Hurricanes have to be a terrible place to work.
It looks like you need a paid sub to TBJ to read that – is that true?
The NHL is not about finding the magic spark for that one game. The Flyers may have beat the Soviets and Montreal tied them, but every other team lost, so which was the best team of that tournament?
A one game spark is not enough, you need to somehow scratch and claw through 82 games and make it to the playoffs. Then anything is possible, not quite anything, you need to win not 1 game but 16 to wield the cup.
Yes, the right mesh of players can find the magic chemistry, and we pay special attention when that team is the underdog, but we often ignore the statistical fact that these things happen infrequently, on average the more talented team wins.
I also am not seeing how Roddie is making those young men mesh. I am seeing a team increasingly hesitant, disorganized and unmotivated with a record that keeps getting worse.
The numbers speak for themselves.
Gosh, I really want the magic story , the Canes to go on a massive winning streak to prove the doubters wrong, including myself, but I work in math and statistics every day, and the stats are clear, the eye test is clear, the Canes are not good enough.