First, let me be clear that as noted in my post last week, I commend Ron Francis for his steady approach to building for sustainable success with youth. I also vote in favor for an overwhelming percent of his decisions overall. And when in doubt I lean toward “in Francis we trust.”

But as a fan base, if we ever get to the point where we just rubber stamp everything Francis does as brilliant, I think we actually are not that great of a fan base. As long as it is done within reason, an engaged and knowledgeable fan base can healthily have its own opinions and ideas on what the GM and coaches should do without being so arrogant as to think they could actually do a GM or coach’s job.

I could easily write a much longer post that details all of Francis’ moves with which I agree. That post would cover 90+ percent of his decisions and would be much longer. But this is not that post. Instead, today’s post will hone in on a couple key decisions where I disagree with Ron Francis.

There are also 2 important disclaimers. First is to acknowledge that I obviously do not have all of the information as much of it is private. I can only speculate on what the asking price is for various trades, free agent contracts, who is available or not, etc. Second is to note that this evaluation of Ron Francis’ work is preliminary. Francis actually made his biggest move last summer in September when he plucked Kris Versteeg and Joakim Nordstrom from Chicago for virtually nothing. He just might have another such move up his sleeve which changes things significantly. But forging my way through the mostly news-less part of the hockey summer, here we go. 🙂

Preference for more flexibility for fourth line, especially center slot

At a basic level, I like Viktor Stalberg as a an upgrade on the fourth line. His combination of size, speed and defensive acumen both fit Bill Peters’ system and desired style of play and also could potentially shore up McClement’s line which struggled 5v5 during the 2015-16 season.

While I think the rationale of adding a skating defensive player like Stalberg could help solidify the fourth line, my preference would have been to go a completely different direction which would be to add (or keep) a player capable of bumping Jay McClement down to the #13 slot and possibly out of the lineup if enough players are healthy.

I think the ideal player would have been a player who could be a solid defensive right wing who could play next to McClement but even better in the form of a player who could also play center and possibly bump McClement out of the lineup. It could potentially be hard to find a player for the right price who could play in either slot, but I actually think the Hurricanes already had such a player in Riley Nash. Nash is a natural center but played some right wing and looked okay doing so. In addition, he logged some penalty kill ice time and could also fill that need if he replaced McClement.

Instead, I think the Hurricanes are now reasonably locked in on Jay McClement as the fourth line center and counting on chemistry and new personnel to boost that line. With another player who leans size over speed in Bryan Bickell on the left side (though there is a chance that Di Giuseppe slots here), my concern is that the line will have some of the same problems as 2015-16 without enough speed at wing to forecheck effectively and McClement challenged mobility-wise to defend the middle of the ice against speed.

The case for Francis’ choice: I think Ron Francis and his team must believe 1 of 2 things. First would be that Stalberg and his speed and defensive awareness are a strong complementary player complement who will help the line work. On a similar note, it is also possible that Francis sees Bickell being bumped to the press box in favor of Phil Di Giuseppe or someone else with better speed such that McClement has support on both sides.

James Wisniewski over Matt Tennyson

The James Wisniewski buy out is still a head scratcher for me. The salary cap math does not matter for the Hurricanes who will be nowhere close to the ceiling and will not use the savings. In terms of actual salary, the Hurricanes will pay Wisniewski $2 million total (over 2 years) instead of the $3 million on his contract. The cost savings to cast off an experienced right shot defenseman with offensive ability was $1 million. The Hurricanes then signed Matt Tennyson for $675,000. If you net out these 2 moves (which indirectly assumes that Tennyson stays at the NHL level), the Canes saved $325,000 which is pocket change in the NHL. This situation has a couple key nuances to it (see argument for Francis’ choice), but if you assume Wisniewski is healthy, I would gladly take my chances on Wisniewski and his experience and upside over Tennyson for only $325,000 more.

The case for Francis’ choice: I think this is clearly a situation where something under the surface trumps the basic salary math/player evaluation reasoning above. First, it could be that Francis is concerned about Wisniewski’s ability to play and/or to rebound to an acceptable level as a 32-year old coming off major knee surgery and a full missed season of hockey. That aside, I think it could also just come down to allocation of NHL ice time. If Francis has decided that he wants to boost the kids up the depth chart to grow their games, moving Wisniewski and adding Tennyson could make sense in a couple ways. First, if Wisniewski had a great training camp, it could force Francis and Peters to make a hard choice between pushing the youth up versus adhering to the “ice time is earned” motto. Tennyson comes in as a depth defenseman with more flexibility for where he slots in the lineup. In addition, Tennyson’s 2-way deal makes it cost-effective to drop him to the AHL level if 1 of the next generation of young guns (Fleury, McKeown, Carrick) proves ready for the NHL during the 2016-17 season.

Conspicuous by their absence

I like the Lee Stempniak deal. There were obviously higher-end free agents available this summer, but Stempniak’s signing is a nice balance of reasonable cost, avoiding term risk and adding offense.

I also like the Teuvo Teravainen/Bryan Bickell deal. Bickell’s contract probably did limit what else Francis could add because of cost but in terms of building long-term, I like the idea of getting a good young player in Teravainen for only modest futures because of the discount earned by taking Bickell’s contract.

I am more mixed on re-signing Cam Ward. If enough other things come together in terms of young players progressing, I think the results of this decision could be the deciding factor for the 2016-17 season. In terms of playing specifically for 2016-17, I dislike the idea of going back to a 2015-16 duo that was below average overall. That said, I think this was a tough situation. The price to add another true #1 goalie who was a significant improvement would have been costly in terms of trade assets and also salary committed. I stand by my original preference to look elsewhere to improve in net, but I also respect that Francis’ decision might have been driven by cost and desire to continue preserving as many futures as possible.

What say you Canes fans? Would anyone else have done differently if he/she was in Ron Francis’ job? Or is this just the aimless ramblings of a die-hard Caniac trying too hard to fill another slow hockey day in August?

Go Canes!