Today’s Daily Cup of Joe steps away from the here and now and takes a shot at projecting the Carolina Hurricanes blue line a couple years into the future.
The core — Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce
I think the two mainstays for the blue line are Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. Both are in their prime at 25 years old, are established and proven top 4 defensemen and are signed long-term to bargain contracts. Whenever either’s name pops up in some outlandish trade rumor note the source so you can discount it in the future and move on. Both Pesce and Slavin are destined to be half of the Hurricanes top 4 on defense for a long time.
Decisions, decisions — Dougie Hamilton, Joel Edmundson, Trevor van Riemsdyk
Without any sure things in the system right now, the Hurricanes ideally need to keep at least one if not two current players to fill out the top 4. The team has three defensemen whose contracts expire soon. Both Joel Edmundson and Trevor van Riemsdyk are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents this summer. Dougie Hamilton is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2020-21 season. With budget as a consideration, the team will need to decide which of these three players to commit to long-term and which part ways with especially if the price is not right.
Dougie Hamilton is the king pin in sorting out the group past Slavin and Pesce. On the one hand he is thriving right now, especially offensively. On the other hand, management has shown a propensity under Tom Dundon to part ways with good players who did not fit the team or the budget. In just a couple years, the team has dealt top half of the roster players Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin and Justin Faulk. That history is likely relevant to Dougie Hamilton. If he continues on his current course, his next salary on the open market could reach rarefied air based on his offensive production. And he is only a year older than Pesce and Slavin by virtue of breaking into the NHL very young. So if Hamilton wants to test the open market aiming for $8 million plus on a long-term deal, he just might get it, but in the process he might also price his way out of Raleigh like other players have. But as a player who has already seen three different teams in a short period of time and seems to have become happy and comfortable in Raleigh, might he leave a bit of money on the table to stay? The team will point to the salaries of Slavin and Pesce and also nod in the direction of old pictures of Justin Faulk, Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm. That puts the ball in Hamilton’s court to take a discount to stay versus risking being the next player gone via trade. My hunch is that Hamilton will enough want to stay that a middle ground will be found.
Trevor van Riemsdyk has been a solid Hurricanes defensemen in a third pairing role. He has provided capable depth and stability regardless of the changing partners on his side. But at $2.3 million and probably seeking at least a modest raise, I think he might find a better match elsewhere with a team with less blue line depth who sees him as a possible #4 defenseman. In addition, I think that van Riemsdyk could see himself competing with Joel Edmundson to be re-signed as a #4/#5. My hunch is that the team begrudgingly lets van Riemsdyk leave because he can find a significantly better offer elsewhere.
Joel Edmundson is an interesting case. When he arrived, he figured to be solid veteran depth with size and snarl to back fill Faulk’s slot short-term. He also figured to slot on the third pairing. But with Edmundson meshing well with Pesce and Gardiner struggling in general, Edmundson finds himself in the top 4. If he maintains that role, I could see the Hurricanes re-signing him as a longer-term part of the blue line. He is making $3.1 million per year this year, so his next contract probably slots at a Calvin de Haan-ish $4 million maybe even a bit less. If he wants to say (he is an unrestricted free agent), I think the Hurricanes might be willing to re-up.
To be determined — Jake Gardiner, Haydn Fleury
Jake Gardiner was signed to be a bit of a different player style-wise but still to be a replacement for Justin Faulk. Early on in a Canes uniform, Gardiner has struggled to settle in. On the television broadcast, Tripp Tracy is raving out his recent upswing, but playing the third pairing and logging limited ice time in a sheltered role, it is an even bet whether Tracy is seeing the future or fulfilling a role for the team’s marketing department. Regardless, Gardiner is a TBD right now. Important is that Gardiner is a player who has played at a high enough level in the past not a prospect who might or might not ever get there. Paired with Brind’Amour’s patience and commitment, the odds are good that Gardiner eventually settles in just like Hamilton last year. If he does, he could again be part of the future as a top 4 defenseman. Gardiner is likely to be part of the equation for awhile regardless. If he continues to struggle, his contract will be difficult to move. If he figures it out, the Canes will be right back to liking his bargain $4 million salary for a top 4 defenseman with power play capabilities.
Haydn Fleury is also a TBD. He has grown to be at least a serviceable third pairing defenseman, but it is not definite that his ceiling is more than that. At that level, Fleury could be any combination of expansion draft bait, long-term depth defenseman to back fill a hole left by van Riemsdyk and/or Edmundson departing or temporary placeholder until youth is ready. I think Fleury stays for at least a few years even if he does not progress. He is physically capable depth defenseman with NHL experience and a cheap contract. That is a winning combination for a #6 or #7 defenseman.
The young reinforcements — Jake Bean, Chase Priskie, Roland McKeown and more
The Hurricanes have a couple options but no real sure things for help from the farm system.
Jake Bean made progress in the AHL in 2018-19 but based on his play in training camp and preseason, it is still not clear if he can handle the all-important defensive side of the puck at the NHL level. When injuries make room, the team needs to give him a legitimate audition and go from there. I have never been sold on Bean being more than an offense/power play-capable third pairing defenseman. But if he can be a good one of those, he serves a role.
Chase Priskie is a positive-leaning wild card. His quick acclimation to the AHL level is a positive sign, but he is also already 23 years old which is two years older than Bean. The window is shorter for college graduate prospects which means these players need to mature much more rapidly than prospects who enter the system three years younger.
Roland McKeown is an interesting case. Any time he has been given a chance at NHL-ish ice time in training camp, he has generally seized the opportunity and played well. I do not view his ceiling as particularly high, but I think McKeown could be ready for a depth role if the Hurricanes lose defsenmen to injury or roster changes.
Of this group, I think Bean gets an audition when the opportunity arises, but I am not sure he sticks. I have no idea on Priskie. I like McKeown as an AHL-level #8ish defenseman.
My 2 cents
As noted, Slavin and Pesce are long-timers. Based on believing that Hamilton will really want to stay, I think the Hurricanes re-sign him to be an offensive third top 4 defenseman. Also, if Edmundson continues his current play with Pesce, I think the team also tries to re-sign him to round out a top 4. I think van Riemsdyk is the odd man out in terms of departing and that Fleury is the odd man out in terms of still just being a depth guy. Gardiner is a wild card right now. I am not as high on the Canes blue line prospects as many but am still curious to see Bean and later Priskie audition at the NHL level.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Past Pesce and Slavin, who else would you like to be part of the Canes defense core?
2) Do you think the team will re-sign Hamilton? If so, on what contract terms?
3) Which if any of Edmundson, van Riemsdyk and/or Fleury become long-timers?
Go Canes!
In his most recent 31 thoughts Elliote Freidman reported the Canes were kicking the tires on Julius Honka, see this article for more info. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/12/snapshots-kings-moore-honka.html
The Seattle expansion draft in June 2021 is also hovering over the discussion of what the Blue Line looks like in the future. I’m sure that’s factoring into GMDW’s planning. Unless extended sometime after June 2020, Dougie won’t need to be protected since he’ll be an UFA. Otherwise, we’ll likely have to expose one of Gardiner, Edmondson (if re-signed).
(I don’t know whether it’d be a violation of the rules, but if the team wants to keep Dougie and he wants to stay, and both seem like they are tracking in that direction right now, then maybe there is a deal to be worked out where (i) Dougie does NOT sign early and becomes a UFA after 20-21 season and (ii) the two parties pre-negotiate a deal to be signed after the Expansion Draft; so that another good player can be protected from Seattle by the team. Risk for both sides, but there may be a deal in there somewhere. Or not.)
The ED aside, I think Edmondson is likely to be re-signed if his ask is reasonable. He’s been better than expected and fills a needed role. But maybe a guy like him at that salary level is more replaceable than I think; de Haan is in that range and he worked out well for us so there are likely others out there too.
What I mean by deal is this … we basically bought a 1st round pick from TOR last year with the Marleau deal and many teams paid VGK 1st round picks not to pick certain players, so picks equate to actual cash-money. The choice may be between paying Dougie a little more to save on having to pay Seattle in the form of a pick – there may be a real arbitrage there that’s worth up to $1M/year in salary over a 5-yr term.
Something like that.
1) Agree that Pesce and Slavin are the only absolutes.
2) I really think it is close to 50/50. His play so far this season puts him in the Burns/Karlsson/Carlson tier. So $9M is market value—maybe slightly more in two years given inflation and increased cap. I don’t think the organization pays him that. So the deciding factor becomes if Hamilton “feeling comfortable” is worth $1.5M a year for 7-8 years. That is serious money—would any of us pass on $10 million or so?
3) For me, my guess is the organization doesn’t necessarily see it this way, the key is what is TVR’s ceiling. If he can handle bigger assignments, then I would keep TVR and let Edmundson go. This is because Pesce produces more offense playing the left side. In fact, I would argue that getting Pesce back to the left is the key to getting the most out of the defense. Slavin/Hamilton is performing as a great top pairing. But the fact is that Pesce/Faulk was better defensively and almost as good offensively last season. In fact, with Pesce on the left, Faulk (who was often the poster child among Canes fans for defensive lapses) was one of the best defenders in the league for an extended period. This season Edmundson is finding some offense next to Pesce. Which raises the question could TVR find another level paired with Pesce while allowing Pesce to play at the 45-point pace he was producing as a left side defender.
This would relegate Gardiner to the 3rd pairing. Given his salary, that is a bit pricey. Still, it makes the most sense. Both Fleury and Bean have played on the right, so that would allow the 3rd pairing to include any of the youngsters since Priskie plays primarily on the right.
Good topic, because there are numerous variations that can have the Canes with a league-best D or several question marks.
1, 2. I think core has to include Hamilton. He is that good and the team is that good with him. It is all up to whether Waddell and Dundon and RBA think he is core. They will pay up for core – but they may disagree on term (big changes to the roster coming in 5 years).
Skinner was a culture-based departure.
Lindholm and Hanifin were hardly core (and some culture issues).
Faulk is/was replaceable – by definition, not core.
3. None of them – they are all replaceable at this point. I think Edmondson has proven to be a good addition and I would like to see him signed for the future. Note that his current salary was set in arbitration, so it reflects an estimation of dfair value. He is having a much better season so I expect he will be looking for something more than a small raise next season.
We picked up Kaski, a veteran for Liilga(sp?) Aho’s old league in Finland. Kaski was named Best Defenseman and Best Player in that league last year. He has been less than impressive with DET’s AHL club but that is an impressive pedigree. And while Wood has one of the heaviest shots I have seen in a blueliner he is probably a career AHLer. CLT’s defense just got better and our prospect pool on the blueline took a big step up.
http://gocheckers.com/articles/transactions/canes-acquire-oliwer-kaski-in-exchange-for-kyle-wood
Based on the photo on the Checkers site, his stick is as tall as he is.
He is 6’3″ and 200+ lbs – “speak softly and carry a big stick”??? 😀
Off topic. The pick gotten from the Rangers in return for Adam Fox is now upgraded to a 2nd round pick. Also, Ferland is injured again after already missing 30 days this season. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/12/snapshots-peca-fox-ferland.html
Hamilton is arguably the best defenseman we have! Before you throw me under the bus, take a look at ALL THE STATS. YOU might be a little surprised, I know I was! Slavin and Pesce are both very good, and I don’t want to move either one, but Hamilton is a keeper.
Edmundson,J has been a surprise to me, and I like what he brings too!
The other Dmen are meh…to me. Easily replaceable!