Today’s Daily Cup of Joe compiles a short list of crazy stats from the Hurricanes 5-1 start.
A potentially dire situation as relates to goal scoring and winning
As of right now, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Nino Niederreiter have exactly zero goals not counting empty-netters. Had you told me that would be the case through six games, I would probably have hoped the team would somehow have squeaked out a 2-3-1 mark on the back of strong defense and goaltending. But because of the massive production from the blue line and depth scoring, all is well offensively despite a few top players starting slow at least in terms of goal scoring. It really is unfathomable where the team is in the standings right now considering the lack of goals from key players.
Jaccob Slavin as our third best defenseman?
The defense in total has been the team’s greatest strength, so there is not really a single negative story to tell here. But for fun, if I wanted to rank the Canes defensemen through six games, Dougie Hamilton wins the top spot for his elite scoring forward-like prowess offensively. And though I recognize the potential for debate here, I think I would put Pesce second by virtue of his incredible defensive play. So despite also getting off to a strong start, I think it is actually possible to say that Jaccob Slavin is the team’s third best defenseman so far despite also getting off to a strong start.
Blue line scoring!
As noted above, the engine that is driving the Hurricanes’ train right now is the blue line. In only six games, the defensemen have scored nine goals. That represents an 82-game pace that has the six defensemen averaging 20.5 goals for a full season, and that is without Joel Edmundson and Haydn Fleury scoring yet. Put another way, the 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes were among the league leaders in blue line goal scoring with 48. Right now, the team is on pace for 123 goals. That is a lot!
With Dougie Hamilton leading the way
Dougie Hamilton is leading the way on all fronts offensively. His four goals and four assists represent an 82-game pace of 55 goals and 110 points. Obviously that pace will slow (or otherwise he will be inducted into the Hall of Fame while still playing), but the start is still impressive.
Ice cold start for Sebastian Aho
Early in his career, Sebastian Aho has been a slow starter offensively but has generally collected a decent number of assists before the switch flipped on his goal scoring. But in 2018-19, Aho actually started with points in his first 12 games of the season. In addition, if my quick check is correct, Aho had only one three-game stretch without a point. So if you feel like Aho’s start is way off any kind of norm, you would be correct.
The third line
In addition to the defense, the other scoring catalyst has been the third line. Ryan Dzingel, Erik Haula and Martin Necas have combined for eight goals and six assists. If maintained for the full 82-game season, the pace would net an average of 36 goals, 27 assists and 64 points for the line. Impressive depth scoring to say the least!
Shot disparity
With three starts each, it has been night and day what goalies Petr Mrazek and James Reimer have faced. In three starts, Mrazek has seen an average of only 23 shots per game. The highlight was the Hurricanes holding Tampa Bay to only two shots in two periods plus most of overtime. On the other hand, Reimer has faced an average of 40 shots per game. Best bet is that this is random, but until that proves true, it is worth watching.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Did any of these early stats catch you by surprise?
2) Who has other statistical ‘wows’ from the Canes first six games?
Go Canes!
Off topic: More rumors on Gauthier to Edmonton. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/10/edmonton-oilers-linked-to-hurricanes-julien-gauthier.html
The source of the Edmonton rumors. https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/one-of-the-unsung-heroes-in-the-edmonton-oilers-shining-5-0-start-has-been-a-player-far-too-many-critics-love-to-hate-9-things
Too early in the season to get overly excited or concerned about too much. Great to see guys start hot like Hamilton and Huala. Hopefully they will continue their good play, but doubtful they can keep up their current pace.
Aho’s play is the most concerning because it is so similar to what we saw from March forward last year. The common assumption was that Aho was injured last year, but there was never any specific confirmation of that. I’m sure he had the bumps and bruises every NHL player has at that point of the season. He looked like a guy who had lost a bunch of confidence to me, and that continues to this day. When you sign a big contract the expectations will be there. The pressure will never go away. I hope he figures it out and soon as it will get harder and harder for him.
As far as Gauthier goes I suppose a trade would be OK. He’s become a fan and media favorite, but apparently hasn’t impressed Brind’Amour. I wasn’t able to watch this weekend’s games closely, but if he had been decent away from the puck I doubt he would be heading back to Charlotte. I did notice that while he scored twice in Charlotte, he also managed to be -3.
The Oilers and Canes are the two teams tearing up their conferences, I think the Oilers are undefeated through either 5 or 6 games.
I don’t see either team particularly in search of a roster shakeup so I take that rumor with a grain of salt and a splash of Carolina Reaper.
If there is a trade it would be to put comparable players in new situations hoping they will benefit from a new start.
It’s the Devils and the Wild who are in dire situation (Devils without a W, the Wild may have won last night maybe but up til now have no wins) and Tor and tampa Bay who are not living up to lofty expectations so far that are likely in search of a solution, maybe in the form of a trade.
I am concerned about the lack of production from Aho, I think it will significantly hurt the team long term if he does not find a way to shake off whatever is holding him back right now.
It’s a testament to a strong roster that the team is able to overcome the lack of production from the top scorers short term, but that is not sustainable.
Don’t get me wrong, this has been an impressive start and it’s really fun to be a canes fan these days.
1. I will say that the third line scoring is something of a misread. The numbers are heavily weighted to the performance of Haula and the majority of goals were on the PP. So 5×5 play by that line has not been as stellar as the combined numbers of the three players indicated. That said I like how that line is playing.
And Hamilton is just very comfortable.
The biggest surprise for me is the lack of performance by the first line – not just offensively, but the defensive slips as well. Aho has misplayed several times leading to pucks in the net.
2. Two surprises to me:
(a) The success of the PP – personnel changes really have made a difference (I am really not seeing a different strategy to the PP but I could stand being corrected on that).
(b) The lack of goals by Svechnikov – although his assists and possession numbers indicate his game has expanded since last season.
Matt – great coverage over the last several months.
Was thinking through perspective on five wins in the NHL vs other sports – e.g. NFL conveniently breaks into quarters, with emphasis on divisional games.
A NHL season is longer, with less emphasis on divisional match-ups. To ‘control your own playoff fate,’ a team needs about 100 points and playing their best hockey in March. Roughly average 10 points every 8 games, the Canes are 10% there with two games in hand. Nice spot to be in, long road ahead.
Aho and Nino will start producing soon enough. Nino doesn’t drive play independent from Aho the way Turbo can. Once they start going, they have a complementary skill.
How far back do you have go to when you felt the Canes had four centers your were optimistic about? Maybe 15-16 with Eric, Jordan, Lindholm and still high hopes for Rask? Wallmark’s stability on faceoffs and defensive assignments is a nice asset over an 82 game season.
Thank you for your kind words and to you (and everyone here) for spending part of their Canes hockey time here at Canes and Coffee. The community and comments continue to be the best part of the site.
My simple measure is points above or below the playoff cut line (which reasonably well adjusts for games played). Right now the cut line is a group of teams +1 win above .500. So for 6 games played for the Canes that would be 3-2-1 which means the Canes are +3 right now which is really good for only 6 games played. But it also means that they are just a 2-3 game losing streak away from the fray. Need to bounce back quickly from Saturday and at least tread water on the road to keep what was gained in the first 2 weeks.