Since the beginning of February I have sporadically written a few articles about the upcoming 2019 NHL trade deadline.
On February 7, I offered a few “quick hitters’ on the trade deadline.
And on February 14, I made a case for trading Justin Faulk.
I stand by what I have written so far. I do not see the Hurricanes entering and winning high-end bidding wars for pricey rentals. But if they are actually available, I do think there are a couple higher-end players who could be longer-term additions. Finally, I continue to think that timing could be right to sell high on Justin Faulk.
When you net it out, the Hurricanes figure to explore possibilities for add a top 6 forward with term on his contract, but given that those deals an be difficult to pull off, I think the most likely scenario has a quiet trade deadline for the Hurricanes.
But with the Hurricanes continuing to move up and now very clearly in the playoff hunt, could the team actually become buyers?
Though the odds are against it, today’s Daily Cup of Joe at least considers the possibility
Identifying needs
The starting point is identifying needs. As the roster currently stands, the team is pretty set on the blue line. With five top 4 -capable defenseman, a solid third pairing defenseman in Trevor van Riemsdyk also in tow, the Hurricanes are deep on defense. If and only if the team deals a top 4 defenseman for a forward, it might consider adding a veteran depth defenseman. In goal, the Hurricanes could maybe upgrade, but that would mean upsetting the apple cart in terms of having to unload a goalie too. Though there are a few enticing names potentially available, I would be surprised to see the Hurricanes play in this market. Finally, there is the forward position. With a number of AHL call ups proving to be at least serviceable at the NHL level, the Hurricanes are in reasonable shape in terms of having bottom half of the roster depth. But I think the glaring weakness continues to be the lack of a catalyst/driver type center to lead a second scoring line or possibly a top 6 scoring wing just to add more offensive fire power.
So if I was general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes, I would be looking to boost the offense ideally with a center but possibly with a wing.
Two internal additions
Before even looking outside the organization, the Hurricanes could make two different types of additions internally. First, Jordan Staal is now practicing in a regular jersey and figures to return as early as Tuesday but if not that likely within the next few games. Because he is imperfect as an scoring-lite top 6 center, I think many people underestimate how much Staal could help down the stretch. Even while leaving you wanting more offensively, Staal is very good at what he does as a shutdown line center. And given that whoever he replaces will also be scoring-lite, Staal should be a nice upgrade within a game of two of the trade deadline.
Micheal Ferland is another sort of addition if the team foregoes trading him for a small pile of futures. The team itself has used the term ‘self rental’ which means that the Canes could actually keep Ferland to help the current season even with the risk of losing him for nothing next summer.
Though not sexy or headline-worthy, those two additions wold be significant.
Considering options for a center
I really think the target is adding a scoring-centric second line center to serve as a catalyst for a scoring line.
Additions with term
Ryan-Nugent Hopkins: He is maybe not as high end offensively, but he is a good, proven hockey player. Best bet is that Edmonton waits until summer to resort things out, but if Nugent-Hopkins becomes available, I would calling about him.
Jonathan Huberdeau: Is he available? If so, is he only available for anything other than the proposed blockbuster with Columbus? Because of his age, term on his contract and his skill set, this is one bidding war that I would try to win if it happens.
William Nylander: The ideal time to add Nylander is after Toronto pays his huge 2019-20 bonus on July 1. And I would not be coaxed into including Pesce or Hamilton in this deal. But with the aim of rebalancing the team, I would consider a deal with Faulk and Nylander as the foundation of a bigger trade.
Rentals
The rental market for this year’s trade deadline is a very good one with a number of first line type players. The question is whether the Hurricanes would consider spending futures for short-term help. At a basic level, I think the answer is likely no. But for the right player and if the price decreases, might the Hurricanes surprise? There is at least a chance.
Matt Duchene: I really think Duchene is a near perfect fit for the Hurricanes need for another scoring catalyst at the center position. He is not just a complementary player but rather the catalyst that the Hurricanes need. He is a center. And he can also help the power play. If Duchene were added, the Hurricanes go from Aho, Staal, Wallmark and McKegg down the middle to Aho, Duchene, Staal and Wallmark. The move that bumps everyone down a notch makes a massive difference in terms of slotting players appropriately. So what would it take for it to happen? Basically, to get Duchene would require a bidding war not to materialize such that the Senators just have to unload him for whatever they can get late on deadline day. In such a scenario, could the extra second round pick obtained in the Skinner trade plus modest other futures be enough? It seems unlikely, but who knows.
The market has a number of other high-end rentals who could be available, but I do not see the Hurricanes spending the future for rentals. As such, maybe the Hurricanes dangle a mid-round pick to add scoring depth, but I think that would be about it.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are the odds that a hockey trade is completed that trades a top 4 defenseman for a top 6 forward? If such a trade does happen, what would the trade be?
2) Do you see any chance that the Hurricanes go unconventional and actually spend for a higher-end rental who could be a key difference-maker?
3) It is time to register your predictions. Take a shot at predicting at least one Hurricanes trade.
Go Canes!
I feel like the odds are more likely that the Hurricanes do nothing at by the deadline – neither sell nor buy. I think they hold out for the summer where they get a better offer on D and use Ferland and Staal as internal additions as you note.
You’re absolutely right, Duchene would be perfect for this team. No way anything lower than a 1st rd pick and prospect gets him though. With the goalies playing well, the D remaining intact, Staal back and Ferland likely staying, Duchene would make this team legit threat to win some playoff series. But, Canes cannot give up 1st round pick for rental.
The bigger question is the price for the next tier of center rental. What would it take for the Rangers’ Kevin Hayes? Again, I don’t think the Canes could justify the cost.
I think Canes best bet at this point is to make a hockey trade (esp looking at Toronto) in the summer.
I wish they went for it with Duchene, why not make a statement and go for it, if it takes Faulk + a first, (by now it is not likely the first will be a top 5 pick, I think teams can lottery protect their first round picks) for a shot at first playoffs in 10 years, and going for it.
I have gone on a bit about Toffoli from LA. The more I read about him the more he seems like an inexpensive upgrade at forward. Slide Staal in behind him on a third or defensive line and Walmark as a 4C with the Keg waiting in the wings.
Staal is a huge upgrade on defense and faceoffs, but there’s a chance he may slow down some players offensively by altering chemistry and slowing down the pace.
I’d be hesitant to pop him into a second line role. I’d rather put him on the third or 4th line and asking him to do what he does best, defense.
My prediction is that the team stands pat, fair enough, there’s still a playoff chance in the picture.
There’s also a chance they may swoop in and grab a bargain player at 3 minutes to metaphorical midnight, the big deadline deals often do not work out and teams start getting desperate to offload their assets for whatever they can get.
Heck, I’d pick up a 2 dollar bottle of head and Sholders even if I have enough shampoo around the house for a year.
1) About 20%. There are at least twice as many teams willing to make player-for-player trades in the offseason.
2) It is becoming a pattern, but I am going to go against the crowd. Duchene has been part of two of the worst teams in the league in the past three seasons. He left Colorado and they improved. He was the missing piece in Ottawa for a team that was one goal away from the SCF, then Ottawa became worse. I would have thought this was totally coincidental, however the cab incident makes me wonder. I am not a big believer that leadership or chemistry can make teams significantly better. However, the wisest businesswoman I know once told me it is easy for managers/teammates to make everyone around them perform below their talent level. Right now the Canes are near peak performance. I think even one red flag is one too many to tempt fate.
3) No trades. If it ain’t broke . . .
Something is going to happen. One, because the temptation to break the playoff famine will be strong. Two, because the “committee”, led by TD, will see an irresistible marketing opportunity from the ensuing headlines. (BTW, neither of which is faulty reasoning.) The optics of being a seller will not meet short term marketing needs or help the team into the playoffs. That leaves 2 options: Be a traditional “buyer” at the deadline or make a traditional hockey trade (Think Rask for Niedereriter.) Given those assumptions here are my predictions.
1. Eric Staal returns for assets similar to those obtained for Jeff Skinner this summer. (Note: Brind’amor and Williams will have to be certain the intangibles of his return will NOT negatively effect the ongoing culture change in Raleigh.)
2. Faulk and one of McElhinney, Mrazek or Nedjelkovic will be traded for a under 26 year old goalie with a promising future and without a substance abuse past.
I think the odds are better than 50/50 we see a “hockey trade” and pick up a player with term – I am expecting Faulk is the one who gets traded and possibly with picks/prospects, but that is just a guess, with a winger coming back.
The chance of a rental trade is nil – Waddell has already said so and I will take his word on it. It just doesn’t make sense. This changes if we trade Ferland but it doesn’t look like there is the market we want for him or he would have been gone.
I think the odds of a hockey trade are dimming – but we shouldn’t complain because we’ve already made the best hockey trade of recent memory – no reason to be greedy. (In fact, I don’t think anyone in Mgmt or in Caniac Nation had any idea how good the Nino trade would turn out.) There just aren’t that many trade partners out there right now; a draft-day trade seems 10x more likely than next week.
Having said that, FLO needs a RHD and I’m all over Huberdeau though that’s going to be expensive – he has a lot of term left. I’ve been a RNH fan for a while but he has only another year left so his value to us is not that high (Ferland all over again). I like the Eric Staal idea – he’s exactly the rental we could use – and suggested it a few days ago but raleigh says he sold his house and likes MIN so I that’s a long-shot, especially with MIN still in the hunt.
I watched the TBY-CBJ game last night: that was a high-end, playoff intensity game. I realize we’ve played two good games against TBY (and lost both) and have played CBJ very tight, too, but I’m just not sure we are really at that level yet and worry that we make a trade that solves a short-term problem to help THIS team THIS season at the expense of constructing a team that can outplay the best teams and win the Cup in a few years.
Our team is collecting points. We’re scoring goals and not giving many up (even if the optics aren’t great on our play). We’ve moved up in the standings and have a more than reasonable shot at the playoffs. However, we’re not a Cup Contender. I think we stand pat and focus on the long-term. We’ve made our big move with Nino. We keep Ferland and wait until the offseason to move a RHD. If anything, we nibble but I would hate to see up go Big Game hunting.
According to the Ranger blogger the expected price of Kevin Hayes is something like a second or third round pick and a mid-level prospect
If Hayes were interested in Carolina and other teams do not bid significantly more I think he would be a good addition.
Hayes has the goods, he is big and a good passer.
He scored 20 some goals last year, but has never been able to get it together. He could be a diamond in the rough type guy (or maybe just a rough guy, but worth exploring), just trade for him this afternoon, get a jersey ready and invite him to the post game celebration planning session.
I don’t see much happening in the next six days regarding trades. Maybe a depth rental pick up for the last leg run to the playoffs (i.e. Raffl from Flyers). The one trade I don’t envision in any scenario is a Ferlund trade. It would take some extremely large kahunas to trade a guy like him when the team is making their only serious run to the playoffs in almost a decade. My thinking is Waddell will make an aggressive effort to sign him after the season and take the gamble they’ll lose him for nothing. The optics of moving one of your top 3-4 players, especially one that has a skill set that is tough to find and brought some attitude to the team, are not good when finally there is some buzz and even hope that we could see playoff games in the Spring.
1. I’d say odds are 60/40 we add. Avoiding the disruption of chemistry given the team’s recent surge is natural instinct, but I still think there is a smart trade or two without shaking the boat. The last 45 days of the season is a pressure cooker.
2. Any deal should involve term.
3. No slight on Mrazek but he is a UFA and Mac has had the better year statistically. I can see us bringing on a bonafide goalie the next 4 years during the team’s prime while strengthening our 2C this year and next, allowing both Ned and Necas more time to ease into the mix. Two players who fit that mold are the Kings Quick/Toffoli. Perhaps a combo of 1st/Faulk/Mrazek gets it done. I would also see about a mid round pick in exchange for Edmonton’s Puljujarvi.
Actually, I was impressed with Puljujarvi a few games ago, especially his size – I didn’t realize he was that big – and could see trading for him but EDM should just wait until later to get more interest from more teams.
1. Our current defense is set, successful and surging. We shouldn’t be trading away a top-four player at this critical point of the season. I place the odds of a trade at less than 10%.
2. I think the odds of us being a buyer are 90%. The players have delivered on their end so management needs to step up and reward the team by obtaining the RIGHT player. Not Duchene or other high-profile and expensive forwards. I agree that the target is another scoring center, but second-tier like Hayes or Brassard. Remember Skinner was never replaced after the Buffalo trade; by us giving up a second-round pick and a prospect we’re just getting back to close to where we were, with a reasonable shot to sign the rental player later. This is a low-risk/high reward deal. My theory last year was that TD was upset Ron Francis didn’t make a deadline deal which helped lead to his downfall. TD just bailed out the AAF for $250M; would he really not make a move to help the Canes?
3. Isn’t it great we are having a discussion about being buyers? I predict either Brassard, Hayes, Dzingel or Glendening. We have to be careful not to upset our mojo.