Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers the rumors making the rounds that the Carolina Hurricanes could trade Dougie Hamilton.
The background
It is no secret that the Hurricanes are overstocked on the blue line, especially the right side. Right now, the team has five defensemen who would qualify as top 4 defensemen both in terms of salary and also filling that role at the NHL level. As of today, Dougie Hamilton is a top 4 defenseman playing in a third pairing role below Justin Faulk, Calvin de Haan, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. In addition, Trevor van Riemsdyk is a proven third pairing defenseman. When one does the math, the team has four right shot defensemen in its lineup, the extra top 4 defenseman is also a right shot.
On top of the current lineup situation, the Hurricanes also have the rights to Adam Fox. Fox is a right shot, offensive defense prospect who was obtained in the summer trade with Calgary. He is currently tearing up the NCAA and by many estimates could be read to jump into the NHL if he signs a contract. If he is in fact signed, he could quickly make the Canes five deep on the right side of the blue line.
All of that suggests that the Hurricanes could afford to trade a right shot defenseman.
On the offensive side of the ledger, the Canes forward group is heavy on youth and a bit light on proven scoring talent. The team has struggled intermittently this season in terms of scoring and even with the recent winning streak still ranks 27th in goals per game. The team could use at least one more scoring forward.
In fact, my belief is that the Hurricanes plan all along was to trade a right shot defenseman in Justin Faulk over the summer to add a forward and back fill the whole left by Jeff Skinner’s departure. In an article before the de Haan signing I detailed a set of interrelated moves. I was correct that the Hurricanes would sign de Haan and also that Skinner would be traded for futures. But when the market for a Faulk trade did not materialize, the team came up one move short of completing the summer plan and left itself short at the forward position.
Fast forward to today, and the Carolina Hurricanes still have an extra right shot defenseman and could use another proven scoring forward.
Enter Dougie Hamilton and the rumors around him
In his 31 thoughts, Elliotte Friedman suggested that the Hurricanes could be willing to trade Hamilton. While I agree that there would be a market for Hamilton, I think the situation is not as simple as just trading him to the highest bidder.
Some might suggest that because he is the lowest of the five top 4 defensemen right now playing in the third pairing he should be dealt. I am hesitant to make that hasty decision.
First, though ideal would have been for him to hit the ground running, I think it is reasonable to allow an adjustment period for Hamilton with a new team. In addition, there are signs that he might be turning the corner. He has four points in his last four games including three goals. So there is hope that Hamilton could be exactly the offensive difference-maker that the Canes thought they acquired in June.
Hamilton is also signed for two more years at a reasonable price assuming he plays at a high level. Faulk is currently under contract only for one more year.
Considering the options
In addition to Hamilton the other right shot defensemen are Faulk, Pesce and van Riemsdyk.
Though van Riemsdyk would have value as a depth defenseman, I do not see him as a substitute for trading Hamilton simply because I do not see van Riemsdyk garnering the same type of return as the other three. So he would not net the needed scoring help.
I am on record as preferring to keep Pesce. I see him as the most underrated of the Canes defensemen. I also would be reluctant to give up his modest $4 million salary. In an NHL where salary cap matters, Pesce gets credit for being a good player but also for his low salary for this role.
Faulk was very likely on the trading block as rumored during the off-season. He has since rebounded defensively such that many are now suggesting that the team should re-sign and keep him. While that is definitely a possibility, I think the Canes could benefit from selling high(er) on Faulk based on the step up he has taken in 2018-19.
Hamilton would definitely have trade value and is clearly an option if the trade value is high enough. He needs to find a higher gear to live up to expectations. but I think I it is premature to just assume that he will not do so.
What I would do
If I was the general manager, I would try to hold the course on the original plan. I would sell high on Faulk probably to a Cup contender in return for a veteran scoring forward.
Unless the return is wildly high, I would keep Hamilton. Especially with his recent scoring outburst, I would show a bit more patience to see if he can round into form and be the elite defenseman for whom the Hurricanes had thought they had traded.
Once the deal is done to clear a bit more blue line space, I would make a push to ink Adam Fox to a contract.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you believe the Dougie Hamilton trade rumblings are legitimate?
2) If you were the general manager, what would you do with this situation right now?
Go Canes!
1. Probably, what team doesn’t want RHD with scoring, especially at the price they expect the Canes to demand.
2. The mistake made by management last summer was to trade Skinner at absolutely any price, i.e. a collection of lower round picks (Buf has 3 first round picks in the upcoming draft, the Canes didn’t get any of them) and a guy who barely cracks the Checkers roster. That is a mistake that management can’t make again, the kind of mistake that leaves the Canes in the league basement.
I’d consider offers on all 3 RHDs and if an irresistable offer came around I’d pull the trigger on it, even if it were Pesce, or I’d promise Adam Fox to do just that if he signs, though we know promising college play does not necessarily translate to the NHL.
Pesce and Slavin, Faulk and C.D. are clicking right now, Hamilton looked the odd man out until his recent surge, which could make him a keeper or increase his trade value.
The ‘D is a strength right now, the right trade could strengthen the team overall, the wrong trade would make the Canes weaker and affirm the notion that management doesn’t have a clue.
Patience is key.
Number 2 above is not accurate. Skinner had a no trade clause, was entering his UFA year, and had chosen Buffalo as the only trade destination he would consider and made it clear to Buffalo he was a “rental”. The “committee” had zero leverage in negotiations with Buffalo. I would argue that the mistake was a repeat of the Eric Staal trade in that a quality player was shipped out w/ replacement hopes,not concrete plans.
Rumors and rumblings are just that. However, I do believe that management is looking at a trade with one of our blueliners – like you stated we are stocked on defense.
The last two summers, we never finished shopping. We failed to check all the boxes. And who knows what deals were offered but we swung and missed during the last two years.
That said, if we trade Hamilton or Faulk, we need a return — a scoring center or forward – no futures or a bag of used pucks. We need NHL proven scoring talent.
It is times like this, that we will see how Dundon is going to manage the team. Is he going to open his checkbook or is he going to continue to make a go on the cheap? If the franchise is going to succeed, TD is going to have make the nece$$ary inve$tment with trades, free agency moves and with upcoming contract extensions/discussions (Aho, TT, Ferland, etc.).
Go Canes!
1. Rumors go either way. Dundon made it clear last offseason that it’s management’s job to find better replacements and the players job to make that difficult (or something to that tune). Hamilton is just coming around, and Faulk has been sound all year. The case could be made for either, perhaps making it difficult on management to decide.
2. I would not be surprised to see a couple major deals to complete the offseason turnover. I also think Dundon’s philosophy is that if we’re going to spend the money, spend it on the right players and allow others a fresh start to find their game elsewhere. The team is competitive but we have to give-to-get in order to complete the shake-up. Just my take:
To STL: Faulk, Staal, Ferlund, Bean, CAR 1st, CAR 2nd
To CAR: Tarasenko, Maroon (pending UFA – extend Maroon), STL 3rd
To TOR: Hamilton, McElhenny, BUF 2nd
To CAR: Kapanen, Gardiner (pending UFA – extend Gardiner)
…then sign Adam Fox. Next year’s core:
Kapanen/Aho/Turbo
Maroon/Necas/Tarasenko
Svech/Wallmark/Martinook
Williams/Bishop/McKegg/McGinn/Maenalanen
Slavin/Pesce
deHaan/Fox
Gardiner/TVR-McKweon
Well said.
The team has two strengths right now, D and goaltending. The challenge is to maintain those two strengths (by resigning the goalies and not make stupid trades on D) while upgradeing the scoring.
You can’t keep the boat afloat by plugging one hole and open another.
TD’s tendency so far has been to trade away players that are about to become more expensive.
Is he ready to go for it and retain playeres that will cost some $ to build a true cup contender?
I’m honestly not much into trading any of the D right now, unless it brings back a true difference maker.
The offseason is full of UFAS and RFAs and team will be lining up for guys like Mac or JW at the deadline if the Canes are sellers (the next 4 or 5 games should pretty much determine whether the Canes are sellers or not, yesterday’s loss was tough but if it turns into a 2 or 3-game losing streak the season is all but over).
There is still one too many RHDs–two if the team can sign Fox. The team needs at least one more scoring forward. So shopping both Hamilton and Faulk makes sense. For me Pesce is off the table. I know most folks say Slavin is the only d-man who is untouchable. If that is true, then the last few games should have brought people around to my view that trading Pesce is also trading a portion of Slavin’s efficiency. Pesce/Slavin is the team’s best pairing–though de Haan/Faulk has been really solid. Given Pesce’s contract, the only trade that would make sense would be a huge overpayment along the lines of a Draisaitl or a Tarasenko. Any “fair” trade misses the value of Pesce to Carolina.
I was an early proponent of trading Hamilton–even prior to the season. My reasoning has always been that he is likely to have the highest return.
That being said, I am coming around to Matt’s view that it might still make the most sense to move Faulk. Since Faulk is in the twilight zone of being a UFA, but after one more year, I would think the most logical trade is for a forward whose contract expires after 19-20 as well. The two that jump out are Mike Hoffman and Tyler Toffoli. These two are on teams that are likely considering a change. Some others like Craig Smith or Mikael Grandlund are on teams that won’t move them, don’t need a RHD, or both.
Playing online GM, I would make an aggressive offer to Florida for Hoffman (it appears that all the controversy from last season was bogus). My offer would be something like Faulk (Florida could really use a RHD), McKeown, and a 2019 2nd (Florida doesn’t have one).
Even though the team might not be able to afford Hoffman after next season, he would be a big scoring boost for the remainder of this season and all of next. McKeown appears to be an NHL-caliber d-man, but as a RHD he isn’t likely to get a chance in Carolina. Moving both Faulk and McKeown should also send a clear message to Fox that he can have an NHL job if he is ready.
Toffoli could be a player-for-player swap, but Faulk doesn’t really fit their needs, so that is even more of a long shot.
Now if St. Louis wants Hamilton (there is a rumor that they tried to trade for him before the season) because they are moving on from one of Pietrangelo or Parayko, then Hamilton for Schenn would be ideal.
None of this is likely to happen. But the Canes need to get a legitimate top 6 forward if they move either Faulk or Hamilton. If not, the current lineup has worked well the past two weeks.
There are two sides to every trade. I really don’t think we are shopping Hamilton. I think other teams have an interest and are calling the Canes. We are smart to listen to any offers that make the team better – hence we are talking trades with other teams. And the rumors start to run that we are trying to trade him.
I really don’t think Faulk will re-sign with the team – he has spent his career with a losing squad and that has to wear on him. The talk that he was part of the culture problem last season and that the Canes were looking to trade him during the offseason could not have sat well with him. Plus he has seen how other former Canes top players have taken their game to another level with other teams. He is still young enough to draw one more big contract and he can sell his All-Star appearances, his shot, his prior offensive accomplishments, his ability to run the point on PP, and his improved defensive play this year. He is going to be in huge demand as a UFA. And that makes him a rental – the longer we defer on trading the lower his value as a rental.
I could actually see both Faulk and Hamilton being moved but for different reasons.
Brett has the highest trade value of the RHD. Locked up under team control and a very friendly deal. I love his game and how he is so steady. So I’m not saying I’m advocating a trade with Pesce in it but he has the most value which translates the highest return.
I doubt that Hamilton is moved. Teams rarely pick a guy up and trade him that soon. Its not roster building on EA’s NHL 2019.
I could see Faulker being traded. BUT.. he has been our best D all season. So yes his value is up from the summer but that also increases his value to our team. He is the No. 1 PP QB. That’s very important. I think Doggie could fill that role though.
We need scoring and while I would love Vlad, Seriously that would be an amazing increase to our team… The cost is astronomical! It would take…
Pesce
Necas
Bean (or Drury ie top prospect in our system)
1st plus additional picks.
That’s high! I doubt I’m far off in asking price. Consider the Matt Duchene trade and what the Aves received.
Defenseman prospect Samuel Girard, Nashville’s 2016 second-round pick
Forward prospect Vladislav Kamenev, Nashville’s 2014 second-round pick
Forward prospect Shane Bowers, Ottawa’s 2017 first-round pick
Goaltender Andrew Hammond
2018 first-round pick from Ottawa*
2018 second-round pick from Nashville
2019 third-round pick from Ottawa
I’m not sure I’m making a trade with a potential lottery pick.
Not sure I get trading both Faulk and Hamilton. That just swings the pendulum back too far the other way such that the team is short 1 top 4 defenseman.
I like van Riemsdyk as a steady depth defenseman. He is now 3 players deep (Fleury’s training to start 2017-18, Hanifin when he stumbled a bit in top 4 and dropped down and Hamilton during his upsurge in 2018-19) in just quietly boosting his partner’s play, but he has yet to show he can play a larger role. I love the idea of Fox rising up and being an instant star, but penciling a college defenseman into the top 4 is putting the cart before the horse.
I do think the Canes need to trade a right shot D to balance things out, but trading 2 just undoes the success from last summer solidifying the blue line and converting it back into another dice roll being 1 player short in the top 4.
If we want to obtain the offensive talent desperately needed to compete as a top 6 team in the East, reality is we may need to trade both. I don’t think the pendulum can swing too far with 10 years of no playoffs.
My proposal above (while aggressive) included dealing Hamilton and Faulk, while landing another top 4D to backfill, which is entirely possible. Plus with a potential Fox signing, Fleury/Bean and whatever FA’s this summer we will still have a surplus on D. The time should be now to correct the offense for 2019-2020.
I can’t imagine that we’d trade Hamilton this soon after acquiring him and after this last stretch of games where he has started to settle in and contribute offensively. I think it’s more likely that Faulk or Pesce goes if we’re trading a RHD.
Both are playing very well right now and both are part of very solid pairings – there would be a loss of chemistry in either scenario. I think it comes down to the return we could get and I would stay open-minded on either.
Faulk’s game has completely rebounded and I think he’s playing at the highest level we’ve seen from him on defense in quite some time; no, the goals aren’t going in at the same rate but he remains a dangerous player joining the rush. As for Pesce, we all know how solid he is and how economical his contract is.
If it’s me, I use Faulk+ first and try and pry away a player like Kapanen from TOR and not a player like Tarasenko – the overpayment isn’t worth it. I would also keep talking with EDM about RNH. Organizationally, Fox or Bean is the long-term (hopefully short-term) replacement for Faulk. We really don’t have one for Pesce.
Ironically, Duchene has played pretty well this year but is a pending UFA and there are no signs of him resigning in Ottawa. Speaking of Ottawa, MarkStone may also be on the block.
Ottawa has been the source of cheap )in terms of trade assets) quality players, so can the Canes perhaps pick up Duchene at a fraction of the cost that Ottawa paid?
I still don’t know what it would take but it might not be such a bad idea.
And there’s a swap of Jordan Staal + Ferland + Hamilton or Faulk to Edm for RNH or Draisitle + Puljijarvi (which has been in the Oilers doghouse) might not be out of the question.
We may have to throw a goalie and a second rounder into the mix.
The Oilers are a desperate team that needs to make a splash and has been on the wrong end of some significant trades lately.
Adding Puljijarvi, RNH and Duchene up front could definitely improve the team’s scoring.
HopefullyGauthier will be ready to have an NHL audition and might be able to replace Ferland if the Canes can’t come to terms with him.
And yes, players are human and this is the real world and all that, but the fun of a fan website is that fans can speculate.
I don’t want to see Canes repeat the mistakes of last summer by practically forcing potential UFA players out of town, why not offer Justin Faulk to be part of the solution, show him that the Canes are thankful for his services and have big plans, and that they want him to be a part of the solution, not just ship him out of town once he starts playing well and has some value.
We have to attract top talent, not develop top talent only to succeed with other teams.
The fans have to be able to expect playoff games at P&C arena, the players have to look at Carolina as a team they should be proud to play for, and a team that plans to win. Anything else will develop/maintain the “losing is ok” attitude and general feeling of hopelessness and apathy that has plagued the team for years.
To attract top talent the team must plan to win and be built to win, not to acquire picks and prospects and win, maybe, at some point in the future.
If we can’t attract top players from other teams and we can’t retain the top playrs that we draft and develop, we might as well shut down the business.
Here’s a suggested trade that a Carolina and Ott bloggers suggested on Hockeybuzz.
To Ott:
Micheal Ferland
Dougie Hamilton
Julien Gauthier
Janne Kuokkanen
2019 or 2020 1st
to Car:
Duchene (8.5m x 8)
Stone (8.25m x 8)
Just throwing it out there for comment, haven’t thought about it myself.
I think trading for one of those players is a good idea, but I’d rather sign Ferland and give the Goat as well as Necas another year to see what we have than trading for both.
My approach to this is as follows:
Premises: (1) We brought Hamilton here to bolster our offense while retaining decent defense from our defensemen. He is capable of somewhere between 10 to 15 goals. (2) We had Fox included in the trade because we thought he had value; i.e. we thought he was a replica of Hanifin as far as potential is concerned. (3) We still scoring at a potential level of an additional 20 to 30 goals per year out of our forwards even after the trade.
My solutions: (1) Find a team that needs something we have a glut of
continuing…being righthanded defensemen and that team has a forward that we COVET meeting our scoring needs (has a history of scoring over 20 goals a year on a continuing basis) and offer Fox and/or McKeon. Otherwise, just sit tight for now and wait for offers. Don’t panic into just trading for anyone. Some of the names bandied about above IMO qualify as being “just anyone” and not solutions to our needs. To me a Hoffman caliber player is the type we should consider.
In December I would have strongly agreed with trading one or two RHD. We were typically scoring 0-2 goals per game and in need of scoring.
Then January came along, with 4-6 goals per game. With competent defense. that is plenty of scoring. And the scoring strength we have in Charlotte is really apparent – callups are playing well and they are Borderline top 6 in CLT.
If the right trade comes along take it, but patience is in order at this instant in time. RBA has the guys playing the style they need to play to score with this group.
A secondary consideration, though, is salary. With Aho and Ferland both in line for juicy contracts, we may need to dump a salary to minimize financial losses. For that reason only, trades that help with salary management may make business sense. Unless we make the playoffs, that is, and associated revenue gives more room on salary.