Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a fresh look at the Canes forward group from a couple different angles.
A bona fide top line
The recently put together first line of Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov has been nothing short of phenomenal. All three can push pace and make plays at high speed. All three think the game well offensively. And all three possess elite skill. The peak version of the Canes has this trio as its top line and enough depth to balance the lines below it. But at least short-term that ability or inability to net scoring from the other lines might dictate how long they stay together as much as how well they play.
Jordan Staal
Admittedly biased by the fact that he is on a bit of a down note right now scoring virtually nothing (2 goals and 3 assists in 18 games since the start of January) and occasionally looking like he has lost a quarter step in defensive situations and picking up more penalties, I am torn on the long-term role for Jordan Staal. At the top of his game, he is an elite shutdown center but still light on scoring for a second line center. I see two issues with that. First, this season has raised some question on where exactly the top of his game is now and is headed as a 31-year old with three more years on his contract. The bigger issue might be how Brind’Amour prefers to deploy his forwards. Rather than purpose-built lines like “scoring” and “shutdown”, Brind’Amour’s model tends to more aim for balance with different types of players on each line. In such a system, Staal might not be the perfect fit with a scoring wing or two on his sides.
All that said, I think the thing to watch with Staal is the stretch run and hopefully the playoffs. Historically, one of his greatest strengths has been his ability to get stronger at the same time that other players seem to hit a wall physically. On the one hand, Staal has had a slightly down 2019-20 campaign thus far in my opinion. On the other hand, I feel like he is a six-week surge away from demonstrating why he is so valuable despite his modest offensive production. Guess we will see in the coming weeks.
The new additions – Erik Haula, Ryan Dzingel, Martin Necas
At one point, the new addition line of Erik Haula, Martin Necas and Ryan Dzingel was a positive third line that was dangerous, reasonably productive and with upside. Fast forward a few months and that gloss has faded a bit. Ryan Dzingel is still trying to find a goal scoring spark and has been quietly playing on the fourth line of late. And after a tremendous start offensively especially on the power play, Erik Haula has slowed significantly. Ryan Dzingel has impressed at times with his unsung passing/playmaking abilities, but his current pace for 12 goals is about half of what he scored each of the past two seasons. Erik Haula scored seven goals in his first nine games with the Hurricanes but has only five goals in 29 games since and a meager one goal and three assists in 17 games since the start of the new year. Martin Necas’ 2019-20 season reminds me a bit of Svechnikov’s rookie season last year. He is quiet at times and still needs to round out his game, but he is sporadically productive and showing the potential to do much more when he does.
Rounding out the center position – Lucas Wallmark
In total, Lucas Wallmark has had a decent 2019-20 season. His scoring is not off the charts but part of that is his ice time, and he continues to be a sound two-way center. Like Staal and Haula, his production has dried up, Wallmark has two goals and one assist since the start of 2020 and has not registered a point in 10 games.
Too much of the same (light on playmaking)?
The Hurricanes centers past Aho deserve credit for being solid two-way players which is a positive, but also maybe the crux of the problem for the Hurricanes forward group. Players like Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Dzingel and to some degree Brock McGinn and Martin Necas benefit from volume of scoring chances. I think it would be fair to say that playmaking has not been a strength of the center group for the 2019-20 season. Through 58 games Staal has 12 even strength assists, Wallmark 8 and Haula 5.
The difficult question is whether they are doing better and some of the wings are just having a tough time finishing or if some of the wings are failing to score because of lack of playmaking.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you make of the recent slumps for the centers and also their generally low assist totals?
2) What are the prospects of Rod Brind’Amour staying top-heavy with the Aho line if they keep scoring even if it is a struggle to muster depth scoring?
3) What other thoughts do you have on the forward group?
Go Canes!
This is a tough situation, the majorityof the forwards are hitting scoring slumps just when the team needs to rise up and cut through the pack to the playoff line, and this includes 4 match ups with the Pens who are, as usual, fortifying themselves for a deep playoff run by adding firepower. They have virtually no first or second round picks left next year and they’ve heavily mortgaged their future beyond that, so the Pens will crumble eventually, but with Crosby and Malkin still in the top epsilon of the NHL they don’t mind and are gunning for glory once again, and I wouldn’t put it past them to pull it off once again either.
There are 3 ways the Canes can pick up their scoring.
1. Inject energy through callups (easy to do but risky)
2. strategic trades (could be effective but is going to be costly and it is always a gamble)
3. reshuffle, and leave it up to the coach.
2 years ago the Canes had marvellous luck with callups, McGinn and Zykov both moved up and scored in their first game with the big club, Zykov got his 5 games of fame that spring.
Fogele injected a heck of a lot of energy last fall.
Last year it was the trade for Nino that really seemed to ignite the team, or at least fanned the sparks.
It’s possible the team can find a higher gear from within but watching the Canes recently I feel like they are fading a bit so it will take a coaching miracle. Roddie maybe, even probably, has one in him but I think he needs some help.
I share the viewpoint of a lot of guys here in that this team is built for ultimate success in the 20/21 season rather than this year, so going all in on the playoffs is a bit premature to me.
With that in mind, I would call up a pair of AHL players soon, Lawrence is the hot big center guy. Team him up with either Gauthier or Kuakonen.
Sit one of Haula or Walmark + one of the wingers (you can pick one of 6 names out of a hat right now given their lack of scoring).
Maybe sit Walmark, put Lawrence and Gauthier in to add some scoring punch to the 4th line and put the RDZ/Haula/Necas line back together for a second go at it.
In the trade market Palmieri may be a trade possibility from NJ (who are having an “everything must go” sale right now).
Detroit has loads of trouble with their young/speedy winger Andreas Athanasiou, who has tons of scoring potential, wants to leave, but is not responsible defensively. If the winger’s lack of scoring is the problem the Canes should try to trade for him (his value is at its lowest right now, and it could be a calculated gamble, Detroit has huge issues with a downright miserable season and a roster that is mired in a major slump, some of their pieces may be significantly undervalued).
1) I don’t know if disciplined data analytics would support what I think I see, so this is exclusively from the “eye test” and my built in bias. The canes appear to be scoring mostly when they have players moving towards the net, after carrying the puck into the zone. Svech/Aho/Turbo are so dangerous because they carry the puck into the zone. All three use lateral movement to create space and time while maintaining possession. That leads to high danger shots due to the direction of player movement towards the net moreso that position on the ice.
The other three lines have been primarily north-south lines. They “get it in deep”,race up the ice, and grind around the boards. The great majority of shots from a player moving towards the net come from defensemen, essentially removing the forwards from high danger movements.
With the exceptional conditioning of the athletes now, grinding doesn’t have the same effect on the game that it used to. It is now unusual for defensemen to be so gassed that they can’t effectively defend anymore (except for maybe on an extra long shift). Exceptional conditioning may have changed the way teams need to approach the macro-level game plan.
1. I agree with your analysis on the Center position. Maybe Jordan Staal is dealing with some type nagging injury that we are unaware of. It’s hard for me to imagine his game has fallen off so much at the age of 31. Haula is primarily a goal scorer and seems to pair well with Necas. Wallmark’s low assist total could be due to who his linemates are as well as his lower ice time.
2. RBA will likely keep the top line together sine they are keeping the team afloat and producing in a big way.
3. IMO, the rest of the forward group is weaker on finishing than play-making.
It’s very close to decision time for Dundon and Waddell. We are going to have to take some risks in acquiring player(s) for the stretch run. We have to go for it without giving up first-round draft choices. What are the two biggest holes or needs right now?
Replacing Hamilton and getting an experienced power play quarterback, preferably one with some size and grit, since we know Gardiner’s limitations. I would get a rental player because getting a D-man with term sends the wrong message to TVR, Fleury and Edmundson at this point in the season. Probably not a popular choice with others, but Mike Green seems to fit the bill.
The second primary need is a true difference-making experienced forward that is strong on the forecheck and is a proven finisher. I would give up a first-round draft pick for Kyle Palmieri.
An important note – without our very good success in overtime games and shootouts we would be having a pretty different conversation now. I would argue it’s time to “go big or stay home” for trade deadline moves.
2) Good question. Rod has been patient with lines when they were balanced, but I suspect he won’t be as patient with unbalanced lines.
3) Team energy from callups was quite successful last year. Clark Bishop, Greg McKegg, Saku Maenalanen all played 20 or more games. Kuokkanen and Roy each played more than 5.
On a small sample size watching the Checkers this past weekend, Kuokkanen and Gauthier look like they may be ready to contribute. Lorentz and Bean have the skills but don’t look physically ready to me – they remind of Necas last season. They both need a focused off-season in the gym for their bodies to be ready for the grind of the NHL. And then there are the pesky details too.
Clark Bishop is still doing his thing. Geekie is surging at the AHL level (and I like his game) but he could use more explosiveness in his skating.
The player who stood out in this small sample size was Oliwer Kaski. He’s a lanky fellow who skates well has an absolute bomb of a shot. He looked like Ovi on the power play – hanging out in Ovi’s office at the top of the circle and unleashing vicious one-timers. His PP score Saturday evening knocked the goalies water bottle off the top of the net seemingly at the exact time he contacted the puck with a one-timer. I was a little concerned his shot would injure somebody. It is rare to see that kind of speed on the puck during a game. I didn’t notice him much on defense which I think is a good thing, and really can’t comment on complete defensive game without more time watching. Brandon was very complementary in his last post, so this guy may be a potential difference maker. Kaski is 24 years old, 6’3″, 190 lbs, and was the best defensemen in Finland’s top league last year with 51 points (19 G, 32 A)in 59 games. If he can adjust quickly to the North American game, he could be fun to watch.
1. I looked at last year’s stats – excluding Aho, of course, and recognizing that Staal has really fallen off this season (although I think some of this early was having a snake-bit Nino on his side), our 3/4 C is actually better this season than last (Bishop was 1G/2A/3P in 20 games, McKegg was 6G/5A/11P in 40 games, Wallmark is at least at the same pace as last season). That said Wallmark’s pace has fallen off since January – I think that reflects his usage and line mates. Haula has really disappointed since the holidays – I have no idea what is going on with him.
I actually think to a certain degree it isn’t the individual players but the style of play and system. ac correctly describes how the S-A-T line enters the o-zone. For the other lines, where is the forecheck? How often did we score off the forecheck last season with the centers leading the way on that? If the forecheck is missing (and it is) that really handicaps the offensive success of our centers – just a thought.
2. Have balanced lines worked this season? RBA has certainly used them through the season, but with limited team and individual success. Right now, S-A-T works – work on the style of play for the other lines.
3. In previous years call-ups from CLT energized the team but, with certain exceptions, that was generally earlier in the season. I don’t see where bringing up a platoon of AHLers as we try to hold onto a playoff position makes a lot of sense, or would be what RBA wants to see. But if we bring up an AHLer or two, we have to put them in a position to succeed – trying to make Gauthier a 4th line grinder is not what I mean.
The addition of JW was supposed to solve our top-9 forward hole, but that hasn’t really worked (except in shoot-outs, of course).
One puzzle for me is McGinn – he is no longer the energy player he has been in previous seasons, and that one season when he got 15 goals (??) and led the league in hit posts – suggesting an offensive upside is a distant memory.
Dzingel has been a disappointment – is he more of a freeform player being compelled to play in a tight structure and his game doesn’t translate?
First off, I think RBA should keep the S-A-T line together until other teams figure out how to stop them. They have been our most reliable source of offense recently so I’d be reluctant to risk losing that until we are forced to by our opponents. For what it’s worth, I think stopping that line is a tall order for any team – it’s really, really good.
As for the rest of the production, yes, it’s cooled off a bit, but we might feel differently if the PP was more productive than it’s been lately. It’s just failed to deliver in the last few games, especially against EDM yesterday, and along with a bit of a tail-off in the PK, that’s becoming the lead story for me again: special teams. I think we’re generally as solid as we’ve been 5v5.
I do think there is a difference in the way we score goals this year compared to last year. If you remember, the forecheck was relentless last year – the best in the league other than maybe STL, and they won the Cup – and created a large number of chances and goals. For whatever reason, it just hasn’t been the same this year, or if it is the same, it sure doesn’t feel like it. Even last Nov-Dec when we were losing games, it still felt like we were often the better team. I don’t know, it just doesn’t feel like that this season.
If does seem like more than a few players are struggling to muster the enthusiasm for last season’s high-pressure forechecking style, and maybe a few of them are a half-step slower and that makes this type of play ineffective. Say what you want about McKegg, Saku, and Bishop, but they were effective forecheckers that contributed to our team identity even without scoring much; we just don’t have that same energy this year.
Having said that, we are still right there and very competitive almost every night. To me, we need to PP to start contributing more, the PK to not cost us, and the goaltending to hold up. Then I like our chances.
This ties back to our previous discussions of how the team composition has changed. The Canes are significantly higher on skill but lower on toughness and grit .
Should the team’s style of play adjust to the roster?
Can the team be trained to play the relentless forchecking style that was the hallmark of last year’s success?
If neither, is it time to make roster changes to bring the grit?
Looking at yesterday’s Blake Coleman trade, that is exactly the type of trade that would’ve been great for the Canes (Coleman is tough, top 20 in 5 on 5 scoring, defensively responsible and signed through next year at 1.8 mill).
I suppose the Canes tried, or at lesat considered it, but Tampa probably has more attractive “win now” vibe (and they did pay quite a bit).
The forward group as constructed isn’t going to get it done if a Stanley Cup is your goal. As Breezy suggests they are too short on size and grit. The Canes struggle against big strong teams like St. Louis, Boston, and Dallas.
The top heavy line of Aho-Teravainen-Svechnikkov can work against some teams, but against a team that has a very good top D pairing and checking line it can be bad. They had little vs Dallas who bullied them all night. The goal scored by Aho was basically a PP goal, scored seconds after the PP ended. I think it’s a nice option to have with those three, but Brind’Amour should not be married to it, even though some media members can’t stop talking about it.
The Canes have to get bigger and grittier up front. They need to look to trades, free agency, and the draft. Something is up with Huala. Looks like a non-fit here. Dzingle was likely fools gold. He can score 20+ on a bad team where he can get away with cheating. Doesn’t work on a good team…one that plays in three zones. Wallmark and McGinn are good fourth liners, but could use some beef to clear some room.
If Gauthier can’t come up and play a hard forchecking game on the fourth line he is no NHLer. I have never seen NHL skill from the guy. AHL scoring isn’t the same. He has a big asset in that body, but if he refuses to use it he better enjoy the A.
We have no one with a nose for the type of hard forechecking game such as we played last year. Even JW is proving to be forechecking-lite.
A nice article on RBA in the Athletic today including references about looking at last year’s team vs. this years.
I wrote my comments before I read the article 🙂