All of a sudden the Carolina Hurricanes 2019-20 season is 30 games deep and quickly approaching the midway point that will be reached just after the calendar flips against the Capitals on January 3.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a quick look at where the Hurricanes are through 30 games.
Pace and trajectory
The Hurricanes 37 points in 30 games projects to a pace of 101 points. Historically, 95-96 points has been good enough to win the final wild card slot, but lately that number seems to be pushing upward. The trajectory is also positive if one considers a fairly short history. The team has won two straight and also nine out of thirteen.
Place in the standings
The Hurricanes currently sit in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Adjusted for games played (using points above .500), the Hurricanes currently have a three point lead over the New York Rangers who sit in the ninth spot.
Looking up
Despite being fifth in the Metropolitan Division, the third spot and avoiding Boston and Washington in the first round is easily within reach. The #3 Flyers are up only two points on the Hurricanes and the #4 Penguins are up only one point. So a win or two coupled with Flyers and Penguins losses could see the Hurricanes move up two places in the standings.
Compared to 2018-19
At this point last season, the Hurricanes were 13-11-4. So the current record is seven points better. In addition, the team was in the midst of a December slide that would finish with a 4-8-1 record that dug a pretty big hole heading into January.
The path forward
I think the remainder of December is a critical stretch. Despite being in a good position right now, the margin for error is still small, and I think the remaining December schedule presents some risk. The team plays five straight on the road against Western Conference teams that are generally playing well right now. After that the Hurricanes face the holiday season that can sometimes get off kilter with the lack of the usual routine. That stretch also features two games against the division-leading Capitals.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Had someone offered you 37 points through 30 games and fifth place in the Metropolitan Division before the season started, would you have taken it?
2) What do you expect for the upcoming road trip and the remainder of December?
3) What is your prediction for where the Hurricanes finish in the standings?
Go Canes!
1) yes I would have taken 37 pts in 30 games, a 101 point pace. When considering the injuries, with Martinook, Haula, and Necas out for extended periods and Dzingel nursing a bump, I would have jumped on it.
2) This road trip is hard to predict. Adjusted for games played, the canes are playing 5 playoff teams in a row. This is a team that brings their best against the best, so I expect fast paced fun games that could go either way. I would be delighted with 5 or 6 points of 10 and would set the over-under at 4.5. Goalie play will be big. A goalie stealing a game may ultimately be the difference on the over-under.
3) It’s a long season. I’ve gone rogue in making a prediction on a 5 game road trip for the fun of it, but really only care about tonight’s game. Ask again in 52 games and we will all have great clarity! That said, this road trip is an excellent time for the team together and become a team of destiny.
1. I am more surprised that a 101-point only puts the team in the second WC spot. It is congested there with a lot of hockey to go. But a solid position provided we avoid losing streaks.
2. I like Forslund’s concept of 5 point on the road trip as being acceptable but I want to see effort and commitment more than a certain number of points.
The last five games are intriguing. Going back to MSG has got to be circled on the calendar as well as facing WSH at PNC.
3. ??? LOL!
My only concern is our losing record in the Metro. Just take that up to .500 and we are really in the catbird seat going forward. Given it is only December we have an enviable position going forward..
There are 2 other teams in the East I watch every day in the standings. The first is Buffalo and the reason is petty. I want another team to have a 9 year playoff-less drought. The Slugs are 3rd in the Atlantic with Montreal, Toronto and Tampa hot on their heels. If they move down a slot in their division they are out of the playoffs. The second is Toronto (which is not petty). They currently sit in the 11th to last place in the league. This is the best possible place for them to stay for the rest of the season. Any lower, their first draft pick (which we got with Marleau) gets carried over to next season. Stay put and we would actually have lottery chances (admittedly slim) in the upcoming draft. Wouldn’t that be fun.
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/12/sizing-up-the-backup-goalie-trade-market.html Anton Forsberg is listed as a trade candidate in this article.
As long as they don’t trade Forsberg to another Eastern team that is fine. They didn’t mention Reimer. Don’t think Wash will trade Copley, he is injury insurance for what the Caps must think will be a cap run and I don’t think they resign Holtby.
As far as the race, there are 2 talented teams(TOR, TAMPA) behind the Canes so making the Playoffs will be tough. Probably the Sabres fall back a little but I’m not expecting any of the other current playoff teams let up very much.
The Canadiens if they get Taylor Hall could make a run. Hope Hall heads west.
My main concern is that Canes have played to date one of the easier schedules in the NHL and the remaining schedule is one of the hardest.
I’d feel a lot better if one team in metro, i.e. Flyers or Penguins, would crumble in the next 2 months.
I like surgalt’s point about our losing record against the Metro – that’s troubling, and those lost points to the NJD and NYR may come back to bite us.
The big difference between this year’s team and last year’s team, other than our record at this stage of the season, has been team identity: last year’s team had one (forechecking, tough to play against) and this year’s team doesn’t seem to have one yet (at least I can’t describe it).
I think that’s the one big thing that still needs to be resolved for this year’s team: what style of play can we consistently deliver that leads to wins? I’m not sure I know the answer to that question; it seems like it’s been a work in progress from the first game and still is. The good news is that we will uncover the answer and then start to play our best hockey, which I believe is still in our future.
So barring a major injury, we will finish at least 3rd in the Metro.
It’s easy to forget how dismal the Canes playoff hopes were as December unfolded. The Canes identity really didn’t unfold until after New Year’s Eve. The run from then until season’s end would have been the NHL Cinderella story of last season if not for St. Louis. For me, Jake Gardiner will have a lot to do with the teams success. He needs to be better for the Canes to be better. Right now he is Justin Faulk at a scoring valley and a turnover peak, minus any toughness at all.
1 – Okay with 37pts in 30 games, even okay with the string of loses, it happens. The only obnoxious loss is to the Flyers which puts the Canes in fifth place. Claude Giroux is so good.
2 – Over the next five games, with Eric Haula out, would be great to see a line combination that maximizes Nino and Dzingel’s abilities. The Canes need a center who can generate scoring if Haula is on limited duty in March.
3 – The Canes are a playoff team. Dougie, Aho and Svech are trending better this year; but I don’t know if the team is better than last year’s conference final team.