In an ideal world, the Carolina Hurricanes will just keep winning at a torrid pace and ultimately win a playoff spot going away such that the first week of April is low stress preparation for the playoffs that follow.
But having a decent memory, my expectations are that the road from here to the end of the season and hopefully into the playoffs will be more like a roller coaster ride. Yes, the primary factor in a playoff berth will be to what degree the Hurricanes can sustain their winning pace since the beginning of January. But with the Hurricanes facing a tough stretch of schedule, how the competition fares is likely to also play a role.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a look at what is ahead for the three other teams also battling for the last three playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. (I recognize that catching the Capitals or Islanders is not impossible, but that would just be a bonus.)
Columbus Blue Jackets
On Twitter on Thursday afternoon, I tweeted the following:
Can next stretch of schedule kill #CBJ and boost #Canes into a sure playoff spot?. Blue Jackets have #LetsGoPens X2, then #Isles, then 2X #NHLBruins sandwiched around game versus #TakeWarning. Hate to wish bad on anyone, but we NEED playoffs. Here is hoping they stumble mightily.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) March 7, 2019
I really think Columbus’ season is in jeopardy right now. The Blue Jackets played and lost to Pittsburgh on Thursday and must again on Saturday play a Pens team that has had their number in big games. If the Jackets can rebound over their next couple games, I think they will be stronger for it. If instead, Columbus loses a couple more, I think it could start a death spiral. Will the pressure of having the organization go all in at the trade deadline smother this team at that point? Might impending free agents Bobrovsky, Panarin and Duchene check out early and start looking to the summer? I will again be rooting the Penguins, painful though it may be, on Saturday in hopes that Columbus can implode and greatly increase the chance of the Canes winning at least the #8 slot.
The Blue Jackets schedule short-term is a tough one. As mentioned above, their next game is against the Penguins. After that, Columbus plays the Islanders and then sees two match ups against the Bruins sandwiched around a critical game against the Hurricanes. Up after that is Calgary. The Blue Jackets do have easier match ups down the stretch, but my hope is that they are done before then.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pens have the aforementioned match up against the Blue Jackets on Saturday. After that, the Pittsburgh plays six of their final 14 games against non-playoff teams including the last three games of the season. Until it does not happen, I figure Crosby and Malkin for somehow finding a way to lift the team up into the playoffs. The case for the opposite is probably the team’s blue line that is banged up and was only able to add ‘iffy’ veteran depth at the trade deadline. In addition, the Canes and Pens meet in games #74 and #79 for the Pens, so the ranking of these two teams relative to each other could come down to those huge four-point games.
In the end, I think Crosby and company leverage their experience and push up into the playoffs. That is not to say that they necessary beat out the Canes, just that I do not see all three other teams finishing ahead of the Penguins.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens lost in San Jose on Thursday night. That leaves the Canadiens tied with the Hurricanes having played two more games. The Canadiens finish up a back-to-back set on Friday that should see Carey Price start. After that the Canadiens have a neatly spaced remaining schedule with only one more back-to-back set. The fate of Montreal could well be determined by whether Price can find a hot streak and carry his team to the finish line. The Canadiens are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, so the team could need some kind of spark to maintain playoff position. Also interesting is that the Canadiens close out the regular season with a gauntlet run of Winnipeg, Tampa Bay, Washington and Toronto. If those teams are locked into their current seeding and not still jockeying for position, that could be a positive. If instead, those good teams have incentive to win during the last week of the season, it could make for a tough ending.
My 2 cents
Short-term, I am watching the Columbus Blue Jackets closely because I think the Blue Jackets are the team most in jeopardy of imploding and playing their way out of playoff contention the soonest. In the next 3-4 games, I think they either bounce or shatter on the concrete.
I hope I am wrong, but I put a good amount of stock in Pittsburgh’s experience. That said, I think the Pens ‘meh’ defensive corps that is light on puck-moving ability feeds right into the forechecking strength of the Hurricanes. If the Hurricanes win both of the remaining match ups against the Pens, that could tilt things in favor of the Canes.
I am not sold on Montreal. I think they played their best hockey early in the season and could limp to the finish line. It could all come down to Carey Price.
Worth noting is that the Hurricanes started a tougher stretch of schedule with Tuesday’s game against the Bruins. (The fact that the Hurricanes are likely to hit a few bumps of their own down the stretch is exactly why I am checking out and wishing ill on the competition.)
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think the Hurricanes can continue at something close to their January/February pace despite the difficult stretch of schedule? Or are we destined for a roller coaster ending with scoreboard watching as a necessary part?
2) Which, if any, of the three competitors do you see faltering down the stretch?
Go Canes!
I think the Hurricanes are going to have more of a roller coaster ride. Like in Boston, the key might be getting an overtime point in a loss. But they’ve played really well against tough teams and having more home games is certainly helpful. Gotta win 1 of these 2 with Jets and Preds.
The next Columbus-Pitt game will say a lot about the Blue Jackets. But I have a feeling it will be Montreal who falters down the stretch.
Our next games have us play WIN, @NAS, @COL, @CBJ, BUF, PIT. If you had asked me ten day ago, I would have said that’s a real gauntlet, but WIN hasn’t exactly set the world on fire lately and NAS isn’t playing their best either, COL has dramatically faded, CBJ is desperate (like us) but vulnerable, BUF left their game in November, and we shut out PIT last time. There is reason to think that we will earn our fair share of points on this stretch by playing the same brand of hockey we saw in BOS and continue to play well on the road, where we’ve been excellent lately.
MTL has by far the easiest schedule so you’d have to believe that gives them a huge edge. PIT has the experience. I’m not sold the NYI are 100% in yet – they are 6-pts up with 15 to go, but this is uncharted territory for them, they haven’t played all that well lately, and they seem to have lost their goalie.
In the end, CBJ and CAR seem to be at the most risk. Still, I like our chances.
State of the Union: Sometimes the best way to judge your team isn’t by what you think of them, but by the way others see you. Right now it’s hard to find bad news amongst the world of outsiders who study hockey. First, the statisticians. SportsClubStats does a complicated statistical analysis of the remaining games for all teams. Stated simply, their model predicts Pittsburgh 3rd in the Metro, Canes first wild card, Montreal second wild card and Columbus the first team out of the playoffs. Next, power rankings. The Canes Official Website has a compilation article on the power rankings from the NHL, SI, ESPN, Sportsnet, and CBSsports. All 5 rank the Canes above Montreal and Columbus, some above Pittsburgh too. Finally, last and least. Recently on Hockey Buzz the question, “Who has the best team in the Metro?”, had the Canes in the discussion for all 3 commenters. So am I confident in the final standings this season? Absolutely not. No friggin way. Too many laps around this track. Do you think I was born yesterday? But am I hopeful? You betcha.
1. There has to be some regression to the mean, and we are starting to see that, I think, in some of the quality of play issues in the past few games. But we don’t need to play at that rate to make the playoffs. “Hockey .600” is viable and will get use there, particularly as CBJ and MTL.
2. I do not like imbueing PIT with some magical power of finding a way to make it to the playoffs. They have been a struggling team trying to deal with injuries and find themselves all season. They have been gifted with a very easy stretch of 5 or 6 games (seriously, they get to play the imploding Blue Jackets 3 times in six games??? Life ain’t fair! LOL!).
I actually don’t want to see PIT win the next CBJ game – that is a 4-point swing in their favor. I want to see the Canes in the third spot, not as a wildcard team, which means I can’t cheer for PIT to win both games. Better for CBJ and PIT to split so neither team gains, and we keep the ability to control our own fate.
CBJ is imploding – did I mention that already? They have all this talent (and new talent) but who holds the reins of leadership on the team? Integrating Duchene and Dzingel is a team thing, and if Panarin and Bobrovsy are already planning not to be there – well, that locker room must be a mess. And Torts is not the type of coach to handle it well. Someone on the team has to elevate himself and take the lead on leadership.
It could well turn into MTL and CBJ each trying hand the finial WC place to each other – only to see PHI claim it by winning the final game of the season (against us – because we will be resting players for the playoffs!).
There is an aspect of NHL hockey that is coming to the fore as the teams begin to jockey for playoff positions. As we all know, that aspect is the physical game.
Fancy stats fanalysts would have us believe that this is the new NHL. Heavy hockey is dead. Haven’t you heard?
Really?
The Caps are the defending champs. They are chock full of players who play a heavy game. They needed the heavy game last year. They will need it again this year.
So if we are to make the playoffs, and if we hope to win some playoff games, we will have to play heavy hockey.
I think it was not an accident that Ferland nailed Johansson early in the Boston game. The rest of the team started playing with an edge for the balance of the first period. Then everybody settled down and played hockey. I think Roddy was behind that. I am concerned about our lack of size across the board. 5’10” Aho had 6′ 9″ Chara in his face all night. Svech was checking people with no regard for their size (I love that kid) and bounced off them.
We need at least one more power forward; Gauthier comes to mind. We have some others. We need one large, strong d-man who is always in a bad mood. Can we bring back Caj? Is Carrick or Renouf up to it?
Between now and the end of the season, we are going to have to beat Winnepeg, Nashville, Edmonton, Wasington, and Philadelphia. We will see how well we can contend with the intensity of heavy hitting as our opponents become more desperate to beat us.
It is going to be exciting. Our toughness will be tested in another significant way. About this time of year and throughout the playoffs, the refs start to pocket their whistles. The rule becomes, “No blood, no foul.” And even if there is blood, not even then sometimes. Injuries will become a factor.
We will likely be calling upon our reserves in Charlotte for help. My beloved Canes will see their courage and character tested severely.
Roddy will earn his bones as a coach.
Well said. All of March will be at “playoff intensity”. Fights will be routine. Hits will be more vicious. Soon nearly everyone will be playing “hurt”. Buckle up.