First, let me be upfront in saying that I think the Metropolitan Division projects to again be the best in the NHL in 2019-20. So this first part of casting shade/doubt on the Canes divisional opponents is about seeking potential weaknesses in a generally good set of teams and to some degree just trying to find something fun to debate as we enter the dog days of the hockey summer.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe casts shade on the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins.
New York Rangers
On February 28, 2016, the Rangers went all in on the 2015-16 season when they traded a batch of pretty good futures to the Carolina Hurricanes to obtain Eric Staal. The Rangers were then bounced from the playoffs in five games in a first-round match up against the Penguins. The Rangers tried again in 2016-17 but again were bounced from the playoffs early, this time in the second round courtesy of the Ottawa Senators. Next came a rough 2017-18 season that somewhere along the way saw the Rangers declare that they were rebuilding. The Blue Shirts proceeded to trade away key players at each of the next two trade deadlines. Then suddenly after a brief stint in rebuilding mode, Artemi Panarin seemed to single-handedly vault the team back into contention. The team did also add Jacob Trouba.
Both are good players and the type that make any team better. Yet I am still skeptical that the Rangers are back from the dead. Analysis just inches below the summer 2019 headlines suggest that the current iteration of the Rangers is incredibly shallow and still dragging many of the same players who prompted the need to rebuild to begin with. Gone are quality players like Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Rick Nash and Kevin Hayes. Still there are expensive components of an ‘iffy’ defensive core that includes Marc Staal, Kevin Shattenkirk and Brendan Smith. Past Trouba, are any of those players truly good top 4 defenders despite easily having the salary for it? And at forward, the group has been depleted by the sell off over the past couple years. If Kaapo Kakko hits the ground running as an 18-year old at the NHL level, the top line of Panarin/Zibanejad/Kakko could be a very good one. But past that, who even is the team’s second line center with the departures of Stepan, McDonough and Hayes over the past couple years? The team is also currently over the salary cap ceiling. If Chris Kreider is the casualty to fix that, the forward group is depleted even further.
When I look at the Rangers roster, I really like what I can build for a single set of 6 to take the ice for the opening face-off, but past that, I think the team will be shallow and playing at a deficit throughout the rest of the lineup. My opinion is that the Rangers are prematurely trying to exit their rebuild in hopes of leveraging the end of Henrik Lundqvist’s career when the team really needed another year or two to burn off a few more bad contracts and add more young talent.
Pittsburgh Penguins
By my estimation, it will take at least two full seasons with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin retired before any of the mainstream NHL media will significantly downgrade the Penguins. The Pens claimed their regular spot in the 2019 playoffs but were resoundingly ousted from the postseason when the Islanders trounced them four games to none. Crosby seems to defy age, quality of line mates or anything else that could possibly slow him and is still every bit of a high-end first line center, but perhaps the beginning of the end showed itself with Malkin having an up and down 2018-19 campaign. Past the big two, the bigger question is whether there is enough support there anymore. Jake Guentzel is a great complementary scorer on the wing, but past him, who else on the Penguins is a legitimate top six forward? Hornqvist has a unique skill set, but even at a younger age his offensive production was borderline for the top six. Newly-acquired Alex Galchenyuk brings talent but also baggage and a reputation for being clueless defensively at times. Nick Bjugstad is a useful player but looks more like a depth scorer in my opinion? Past Crosby and Malkin down the middle and Guentzel to fill one wing spot, is the rest of the Penguins top six more than hopes, wishes and probably overslotted depth players? On defense, Kris Letang still gets credit for being a top-end offensive defenseman, but at 32 years old and seemingly held together by duct tape at this point, he feels more like reputation than reality. Then, Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, Erik Gudbranson and Jack Johnson fit the bill more as experienced depth than true difference-makers.
The paths to get there are different, but I actually view the Penguins about like the Rangers in that they do have some top-end talent that can win hockey games but that that the team is weak past the best they can put on the ice as a best set for the opening face-off.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on the New York Rangers? Is there attempt at an abbreviated rebuild via $11.6 million for Artemi Panarin and $8 million more for Jacob Trouba too soon and doomed to fail?
2) What are your thoughts on the Pittsburgh Penguins? Are Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and a taped together Kris Letang still enough of a core to boost the rest? Or is that model starting to crumble?
Go Canes!
Matt, I think you hit the nail on the head in your assessment of the Rangers. They are trying to expedite their rebuild probably 2 years too soon. They will be good enough to be a bubble team, but I don’t think they have the depth or young stock to get over the playoff hump. These moves will hurt them over the next 3-5 years.
Penguins will continue to be favored by the mainstream media so long as Crosby and Malkin make their line mates better. But much like the Rangers, it’s the supporting cast that makes or breaks this team. I see the Penguins at best a 7-or-8 seed in the East if they can stay healthy, but the days of top 3 Metro are likely to fade soon.
I can’t say I follow other teams that closely. But I do think that Panarin and Trouba make the Rangers better and not worse, and represent a significant improvement for the team. But I don’t think that putting $20M into 2 players is a key to team success, and they carry a lot of question marks on their roster.
The Rangers have a number of forwards coming off their contracts but until the end of 2020-21, when 3 D-men with $17M in cap, they are pretty stuck. It is almost as though they are playing for their rebuild to be then, and they have added their suprerstars to build around when that happens. These pickups may look a lot smarter in 2021-22 when a new CBA and a higher cap is in play and the team can restock the cupboards.
Don’t overlook the Blueshirts could build their 4th line around Greg McKegg and Phil DiGiuseppe.
OK
Matt, good observations.
I think the Rangers do have a shot at surprising, although I agree that they might be a couple of years away. In my opinion, a lot of their offensive potential depends on 3 other youngsters: Filip Chytl, Lias Andersson, and Brett Howden. Should they take the next step, that would go a long way to providing a greater level of secondary scoring. Howden showed his speed and skill, especially late last season. Chytl is just getting started as is Andersson, the guy who hated losing so much he launched his silver medal at the world juniors.
On defense, they’ve got Brady Skjei who seems to be both simultaneously over-rated and under-rated. But he’s pretty good. We should all know Adam Fox’s potential (and potential to be a bust), but Libor Hajek is also a rear guard who is going to surprise.
All of this tells me that the Rangers could be a team that gets overlooked and then surprises some folks. They could also live up to their “couple of years away” label. I’m more worried about them than…
The Penguins have the potential to be one of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference with two of the conference’s Top 10 players. Crosby, Malkin, Galchenyuk, Guentzel, and Bjugstad should all provide some semblance of scoring. Hornqvist is beginning to show his age but even he was on his typical 45-50 point pace last season. He is a pretty significant injury concern and basically can only be penciled in for about 75% to 80% of the season.
The Penguins could also have a pretty significant rebound if a couple of guys from the bottom half of their roster show up. Jared McCann was pretty good for the Pens in the second half. He’s a former 1st rounder who was pretty significantly mishandled by both Vancouver and Florida. He is another guy who was on a 20g+/40p+ pace once he got to Pittsburgh. Zach Aston-Reese is a former NCAA goal scorer who has shown flashes of that capability. If he can play up to that potential (he showed some of that in the AHL over the last 2 seasons), then there’s the secondary scoring that Pitt will need to be competitive. The rest of the forward roster is pretty much packed with “meh”.
The back end has 4 “solid” guys in Letang, Dumoulin, Shultz, and Pettersson. The remainder is beyond slow and probably beyond competitive. And there’s no hope down on the farm given that Rutherford has pretty much traded all their talent away.
While I still believe the Metro will be a blood bath, there are some chinks in the traditional powerhouse’s armor.
Collectively all the above is a very good realistic assessment of both teams. All I can add is they are also 2 of the 3 teams currently over the salary cap. Pittsburgh is near the 50 contract limit as well. I’m looking for JR to retire soon. Continuing the wild prediction, he will soon re-emerge as a special consultant to the Seattle expansion team, taking Jason Karmanos with him to be an assistant GM to Ron Francis.
It looks like the biggest cap hits for the Blueshirts 3 agig d men are in the 20/21 season. I wonder how a lockout affects the cap hit.
If it does, they might do a massive buy out of 1 or even 2 or 3 of the D men now to free up cap space and hope that next season will be pretty much bust anyway. One thing that the Rangers have is money.
money, so from a financial perspective I suspect that buy outs are not a big deal for them.
I hope King Henry can win a cup before he retires but it does not look likely with this incarnation of the Rangers. I’m still in the “Rangers could surprise” camp.
JR has done more damage to the Pens than any opposing player or team has managed. He got a lot of credit for inheriting a team with superstars and got unreal goaltending that resulted in a back to back championships (and he will always get a lot of credit for that, good for him), but he has done an absolutely terrible job with the depth players, who in their right mind would sign Jack Johnson, let alone to a lucrative long-term contract.
He’s traded away some of the more potent forwards (Buf must be laughing at them) and practically their entire cupboard of picks and prospects. There were even rumors of Malkin wanting to leave, though rumors are just rumors.
I predict the Pens, even with their superstars will miss the playoffs this year.
Jimmy Rutherford to retire? Retirement for him will come when he dies at his desk on the phone in the middle of fleecing some other GM of a valuable asset.
I asked his daughter once how her dad manages to stay out of jail. She laughed and admitted that he was known as “the thief” among GMs.
Would Ronny Francis bring him as well as young Mr. K aboard in Seattle? I have my doubts, for any of a number of reasons.
But if Jimmy Rutherford lives long enough, the Penguins will be Cup winners again. It’s what he does. But he is a realist. He has to do it within the confines of economic reality.
He built my beloved Canes on a very small budget. The stories behind the player acquisitions are fascinating.
Jimmy does have a couple of Achilles heels:
1) He is enamored of Russian players who, very often turn out to be duds (see Teverdovsky, Ozilynch, Samsonov, Semin).
2) He will not tolerate a player who plays hardball with him publicly (see Keith Primeau).
3) He sometimes misplaces his loyalty to a player (see Jack Johnson).
An interesting, slightly dated retrospective review of JR as the Canes GM. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2042739-jim-rutherford-leaves-behind-complicated-legacy-with-carolina-hurricanes
Why would JR retire? He is in his 70’s, that’s when most people retire. Why would he take an advisory role in Seattle? He’ll be well paid without doing the heavy lifting. He is more likely to have another cup run in Seattle than Pittsburgh. He has 2 years left on his contract in Pittsburgh, He will gone after that anyway. Why take Jason Karmanos with him? Because he has done it before. And, he loves poking Jason’s Dad every chance he gets.
Actually, the Metro is NOT going to be as competitive as at least two of the other divisions this year for a change. I’d really hate to be in the Central where any of STL, WIN, NAS, COL, DAL could be the top 3; or in the East where you’d have to outplay one of TBY, BOS, TOR, and an improving FLA. This is the first year in a while where the Top 3 in the Metro isn’t a murderer’s row of excellent teams: can anyone actually pencil in the Top 3 in the Metro with any degree of confidence? I can’t.
The NYR still have all the issues noted above, but the other huge wild-card is actually The King: he’s getting on in years, played 52 games last year (fewest in a while), and needs to (a) stay healthy and (b) perform at his historical level for them to have any chance at all. They will be better but they are still a work in progress.
As for PIT, the death of the Penguins has been rumored for quite some time on this blog and elsewhere. Will this be the year they actually stumble? Given the rest of the competition in the Metro, I’m still counting on them to be quite competitive if Murray plays well. But I don’t think they are elite or structured to make a real run in the playoffs even if they do qualify.
The one thing we have over most teams this year is depth and balance. That’s a good formula for success.
I believe this is JR’s last hurrah. He’s not moving to Seattle to be 2nd fiddle to Ronnie Francis. Jason Karmanos probably thinks he’s the GM in waiting in Pittsburgh…I can’t imagine filling that job without getting the public admission that the new GM is embarking on a 5 year rebuild (once Crosby and Malkin retire/move on, etc.).
In the end, JR brought 2 Stanley Cups to Pittsburgh, taking an underachieving team with superstars on the roster, adding the depth they needed to get over the top. Somehow, some way he’ll make roster adjustments….whether or not they work is another story, but he won’t stand still.
The Rangers also have some significant work to do this Summer just to get under the salary cap. What you see on Cap Friendly isn’t the team that will take the ice in October.