For anyone who missed it last week or as a reminder to those who did, Canes and Coffee will be turning the website over to readers and guest writers starting sometime next week. Here is your chance to write an article on the Carolina Hurricanes.
When Ron Francis was named the general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes following the 2013-14 season, the situation was a challenging one. The team had just finished 25th out of 30 teams in the NHL and had missed the playoffs for the fifth straight season. Francis’ mantra from the very beginning was to build from within and establish organizational depth that would enable the team to not just return to the playoffs but also do so in a sustainable way that would yield regular playoff visits.
The transformation on defense and in net
The transformation that had to occur took form rapidly on the blue line when during the summer of 2015 Noah Hanifin was added in the 2015 draft and jumped straight to the NHL and was soon accompanied by Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin who more or less parachuted straight from NCAA hockey into the NHL and landed pretty quickly in top 4 roles.
In goal, Francis made an early attempt to shore up the position when he added Eddie Lack, but that move did not yield the hoped for results. Scott Darling represents a ‘go for the best’ second try to solidify the position.
A 2014-15 starting point light on top 9 talent at the forward position
Once the blue leaped forward ahead of schedule, the forward position became the longest path to improvement. The top 9 for the forward group to start the 2014-15 season included Nathan Gerbe, Chris Terry and Jiri Tlusty, none of who have since fallen below the NHL cut line. The top 9 also included Alexander Semin who was subsequently bought out and also a 19-year old Elias Lindholm who was entering his second season and arguably still in a bit over his head in an NHL top 9 role. We could debate a few players, but I think one could make a reasonably defensible case that the Hurricanes really only had four forwards in the top 9 who were not overslotted. Gerbe, Terry and Tlusty maybe were just overslotted. Lindholm was early. And Semin, for whatever reason, just did not work out. That leaves only Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner and a just-emerging Victor Rask.
Minimal immediate forward help in the system
The need for help in the top 9 at forward was not something that could quickly be filled by the prospect pool and system. Chris Terry, who is noted above, was the top prospect to emerge during a dry spell at the forward position. The Hurricanes did net Brandon Sutter, Jeff Skinner and Victor Rask in the five years of drafts from 2007 to 2011, but the next best forward drafted probably was 2014-15 NHLer Chris Terry.
A gradual transformation
The transformation that has taken place at the forward position from 2014-15 has been gradual and with a few instances of taking a step or two forward only to take another backward.
Here is how it has developed (Note: The aim is not so much to put players on actual lines or rank them but rather to fairly clearly show players moving out and new ones moving in over the three years since Francis took over as general manager. Gray indicates a change from the previous season.)
2014-15: Looking back to before Francis’ tenure Francis added only depth forwards Jay McClement and Brad Malone to his first team in 2014-15.
2015-16: The changes to the 2015-16 roster were also modest. On the cheap, Francis added Kris Versteeg and Joakim together in an expensive salary camp dump deal. And Andrej Nestrasil who joined the team during the 2014-15 season was a new entry to the top 9 (my reference point is the beginning of each season).
2016-17: The 2016-17 season offered more significant changes but mostly in an offsetting manner as a few key players left and a few replacements arrived. When one looks only at the off-season, the addition of Teravainen, Stempniak and Aho for the top 9 and also a couple depth forwards in Stalberg and Bickell look like significant additions. But when offset against the loss of two-thirds of the top line from 2015-16 at the trade deadline when Eric Staal and Teuvo Teravainen departed, the net changes look more like two steps forward and two steps back. But when compared to the 2014-15 lineup, there appears to be a net gain in the top 9. Four holdovers of Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm and Victor Rask were joined by Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho and Lee Stempniak. My math counts a total of seven legitimate top 9 forwards in the lineup once Aho worked out immediately which is an increase of two or three from the 2014-15 starting point.
2017-18: The only player that I would consider to be a pure top 9 addition for the 2017-18 season is Justin Williams, but three other things are worth noting. First is that the team did not lose any top forwards. Francis brokered a deal not to lose Lee Stempniak to the expansion draft, re-signed Derek Ryan and did not lose anyone else (pending re-signing of Phil Di Giuseppe who is qualified). Second is that Francis significantly upgraded what I am slating as a fourth line when it added Marcus Kruger to replace Jay McClement. Finally, by making additions without much for subtractions, the team became deeper with experienced NHL players like Brock McGinn, Phil Di Giuseppe, Derek Ryan, Josh Jooris and Joakim Nordstrom battling for only 2-3 open slots in the lineup.
Still maybe one short but with help on the way
I am on record as wanting one more offensive difference-maker to help boost the offense but by no means would I consider the situation dire. The Hurricanes did upgrade their top 9 with Justin Williams and also their fourth line and depth with Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris. And needing to fill one top 9 slot internally is not impossible given a decent number of depth options and also a few higher-end wild cards in the prospect pool.
And the prospect pool is worth noting. The group of players with top 6 scoring potential is growing. All of Julien Gauthier, Aleksi Saarela, Janne Kuokkanen, and Martin Necas who were drafted either in the first or second round have NHL scoring potential. In addition, mid-round picks Nicolas Roy, Lucas Wallmark and Warren Foegele also have developed nicely.
Netting it out
As much as I would have liked to add one more top 6 scoring catalyst (which could still happen) specifically for 2017-18, broader analysis suggests that after starting from what I would call a deficit Francis has the forward part of the roster on track to realize his original goal of building from within soon.
What say you Canes fans?
Because it was completed gradually and without spending a ton of trade assets to a big trade, is Francis’ steady transformation of the forward ranks maybe underrated?
Is it fair to say that the team’s depth down to #12 or #13 on the forward depth chart the best it has been since the 2009 playoffs?
Go Canes!
RF’s work is only underrated by the “win now already” group of Canes fans who have had trouble staying patient – admittedly, it’s been a tough ask – but not among the larger NHL community who has watched this team develop on the ice, especially on the blue line, and talk about our growing organizational depth, which you correctly identify by listing the upcoming group of scoring forwards (and you even left out Zykov, who may be the first to get promoted).
We are going to be moving on to a different phase of team-building soon – I would almost say that “full-bore rebuild” mode is over – that is going to present a different set of issues (Cap issues, roster space, playing time, slotting, etc.). In my view, RF did a fantastic job at the first stage; I’m optimistic he’s going to be just as good at the next stage.
And yes, we have more forward depth than in years. In fact, our Forward depth in the bottom 6 is probably less appreciated but will become more apparent this season as our prospects fight hard in camp for very limited roster spots and for call-ups in the first months of the season should there be injury or underperformance. It will become obvious in 2018-19.
Sorry, but there’s one problem with your statement about “depth down to #12 or #13″… What you’re forgetting is #1 (depth)… no Eric Staal!! It’s a lot easier to aquire 11-13, than to replace the guy at the top…eh?
He is/ was the “elephant in the room” !!
Replacement of a C1 on any team is not easy, BUT THIS TEAM REALLY NEEDS SOMEONE WHO IS VERY CLOSE…C1-lite?
Yes, our 2-13 is somewhat better than several teams, and an improvement over the Canes of 2014… but the job ISN’T DONE YET……..
I think too many “Canes Fans” forgot just how depleted JR left things, years of trading away prospects and pics to “keep the band together” caught up with us. I see progress in GMRF’s methods and as long as I see progress I am patient.
Yup, and if you want to see a replay look at the Penguins farm system now…still, I’d trade in some prospects for back to back Cup wins.
I think there has been very solid (and under-stated) progress in developing the forward ranks – doing so with little cost through opportunistics trades and FA signings.
What I like the most are the grade-A prospects we will have in Charlotte this season. I firmly believe our “top-6 difference-maker” will come from those ranks – and that there are numerous candidates, which implies to me that we may have multiple young guns at forward for the 2018-19 season.
Caniac97…I agree. It’s also easy to forget our defense has played ahead of schedule which causes some unfair expectations on our developing forwards. I bet GMRF originally thought guys like Slavin and Pesce would take a few years to crack the lineup. This pleasant surprise probably had us all placing more eyes on our forward development hoping someone arises to the forefront. Our place in the standings (notably 2016) didn’t allow for a higher draft pick to potentially grab an elite center in 2016 (Laine, Dubois, etc). This placed even more intrigue on our forwards from within wondering if someone would develop into that immediate 1C. I believe we have a 1C in the system already, but time and patience will tell. If not, we’ll be in a prime position to play ‘lets make a deal’.
I’m curious about who you think we have that could be a C1?
I don’t see it, but maybe you are right…?
Aho and Lindholm (though the latter is more controversial). Remember how young both are.
Totally agree. Aho has the makings of an elite center. Necas is potentially another Bo Horvat or Alexander Wennberg–a pick outside the top 5 who ends up being among the best centers from the draft class.
And with Saarela, Kuokkanen, and Roy the Canes have C2 and C3 candidates. I have said for a while now that center will soon become a strength not a weakness.
How many goals have we’ve scored per season since RF took over?
JR’s most fatefully bad decision was to hand Semin a 7-year 7 mill contract. I am still mystified what happened to semin. He had the talent, he used to have the drive. Did he just decide he didn’t want to play hockey anymore or what?
This guy was capable of scoring 40+ goals and probably scored the most impressive goal in Canes history (at least recent history), but he just decided to retire in his first year, on full salary, and sent the team into 7 years of bad luck (hopefully only 5).
I wonder if the signs were there, and JR didn’t read them, or if something happened.
Maybe we should have the best and worst trades of the last 5 years (or best/worst signings of the last 5 years) blog (I need to figure out if I have time to write one, it might be fun).
I’m still not sure whether trading Eric Staal was the right thing to do. His play definitely picked up a lot last year, though maybe he needed the change of scenery. But it would’ve been good to see him have that revival in a Canes uniform.
WE have yet to see whether the assets we got in return will be good for us. There is lot of promise, but nothing on the NHL level yet.
I am still feeling increasingly excited about the season, even if we mostly have a lot of potential, and potential does not always translate to success.
Semin is playing in the KHL and doing reasonable well (+/- 0.5 ppg).
What I find interesting about Eric is that his overall stats are comparable to what he had in this last few seasons with the Canes in the way of points. He is scoring more goals, reflecting a change in his usage and his shot percentage was much higher with the Wild than with the Canes which probably reflects better shot opportunities with a better team.
Hey Breezy…Would love to see your tally of best and worst trades in an article. That one would be a bit of a research project depending on how far back you went but would be a great read.
One of the things that I think doesn’t get mentioned enough has been our change in overall draft strategy. 1st round “best player available” – always. Pick up a defenseman in rounds 2-4 – at least one. Pick up a goaltender in rounds 3-5 – at least one. Try to come out of every draft with a “faller” who is better than his “fall” (see Roy, Nicolas) and try to come out with a speed, skill guy seemingly overlooked (see Foegele, Warren or Filipe, Matt).
Since Ron Francis took over, every single player taken except Sebastian Aho, has been 6′ tall or taller. We’ve taken more Europeans than ever and taken more players from the Q than ever.
While some of this might seem like plain common sense, this team seemingly drafted on gut instinct and voodoo for years. Now this team drafts based on a formula that seems to yield a much higher chance of overall success.
Oh, and always take a Finn….
notopie. The quality of picks the last four years has been strong. As you stated, every position seems to be covered. While we talk above about how centers are a future strength, the same may be said for goalies in the next year or two. Whatever combination of scouting and analytics the organization is using they have found some great value in every round of the draft.
I am not naive enough to think all the prospects will make it to the NHL, much less have success. But since RF took over as GM, middle round picks like Roy who you mentioned, Wallmark in 2014, and Booth in 2015 have shown promise. Both the 3rd rounders this year could be steals. Even some late round picks have promise, as I am pretty high on Lorentz.
We are obviously biased, but several outside analysts, bloggers, etc. have given the prospect high grades. Something is being done really well.