Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a break from the more formal series building the 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes roster but stays mostly on the same topic identifying some difficult choices and offering early reactions.
Justin Faulk
His current contract is up after the 2019-20 season which puts him in a similar position to where Jeff Skinner was last summer. Ideally, the time is now to either re-sign Faulk or instead try to net a return for him probably in the form of a scoring forward. Faulk made a good case for staying longer-term with a much-improved 2018-19 season, but that might only have boosted his trade value and his asking price for his next contract.
Early thoughts: While I do think there is a legitimate case for re-signing Faulk and maintaining the blue line depth, my leaning is to sell high on Faulk. He will be 28 years old when his next contract starts and would push to 32 years old even if he settled for a relatively short four-year deal. That is not ancient by NHL standards, but as a player who in my opinion has straddled the mobility line already, I just think the risk is higher than the reward if his next contract clocks in higher than his current $5.9 million yearly salary.
Micheal Ferland
All seems to be quiet on the western front with regard to Micheal Ferland which suggests he will test free agency. The burning question for me with Ferland is what the salary and term are. I would not be willing to pony up Tom Wilson type money, and I acknowledge that the injury risk is significant given Ferland’s style of play and recent history. But at the same time, his skill set as a capable old school enforcer, dangerous and disruptive presence and capable skater and scorer is a unique and valuable one that could be difficult to replace.
Early thoughts: Despite his second half slow down and injury issues, I still like Ferland if he can be signed for a modest salary and only for three years. So let’s call that three years at $3-3.5 million per year. That is more or less a third line price for a player who showed in 2018-19 that he was capable of producing in the top 6 in addition to being a physical force.
The goalie position
On the one hand, I think it is time to get Alex Nedeljkovic a look at the NHL level. On the other hand, I think people underestimate the risk of a rookie goalie. The paranoid part of me would actually consider bringing back both Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney but making it a goal to get Nedeljkovic 15-20 NHL starts while still playing much of the season in Charlotte. That would be challenging if injuries do not tee up some starts. I guess another option cold be to go with a proven NHL starter with Nedeljkovic and also signing a good veteran AHL goalie with NHL experience to be a #3 down in Charlotte if needed.
Early thoughts: Anything other than _____/Nedeljkovic in net is going to be complicated and slow the process of assessing Nedeljkovic at the NHL level, so I would with some reservations go this route and also add an AHL goalie with some NHL experience.
Farm system versus free agency (or trades)
I am on record as thinking the goal this summer should be to try to improve. That could suggest adding another player from outside of the organization. But with the volume of players at the AHL level who seem close to ready to help at the NHL level, it is in the team’s best interest to have some flexibility to get some of the young guns ice time to see if they can produce at the NHL level. So the burning question is how much room to leave for AHL promotions versus swapping in proven NHLers.
Early thoughts: I think the Hurricanes could greatly benefit from adding just one more higher-end playmaker who can drive a second scoring line. The issue is that players of this ilk are pricey either requiring a sizable trade haul or requiring a huge bid to gain their services via free agency. I would try to add one more playmaker, but I would not get desperate and overpay for a second-tier type player who is not really the difference-maker desired.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Where do you land on these four tough decisions?
2) Do you have any other tough decisions that the team must make this summer?
Go Canes!
Justin Faulk is an interesting case. He is very strong and can use that strength to our advantage by clearing the net front and boxing people out. He will occasionally win battles in the boards. And, when inspired, will send an opposing player flying into the boards. Of course, he can fire a bullet from the point. He can score from anywhere he wants.
And, from out of the blue, he can pull a bonehead play and let them score an easy one while he watches.
This last fact of his life is the reason we will never get what we want for him.
Inconsistent. Not a good thing to have next to his name when you are hoping to get a top rated scoring forward for him in a straight up hockey trade one-for-one.
It’s a cinch that Kyle Dubas isn’t going to send us Nylander or even Kapanen in hopes that Justin will be the answer to his defense problem.
Let’s keep Justin another season and hope for the best. Who knows? Some GM might make Donny an offer he can’t refuse. That’s about as likely as Fleury showing that he is ready for the NHL.
Goalkeepers are mysterious creatures. In the last couple of years, Toronto, Philly, Vegas, Chicago, and Edmonton have found that 2 keepers is not nearly enough to make it through a season. Let’s keep what we have and look for more.
I can’t believe you, Matt. You accurately describe the attributes Michael Ferland brings to the table. Then you say that you don’t think he is worth what the Caps gave Wilson. Boy! Am I glad that you are not our GM!
Ferland’s health is a big concern. Players who play like he does constantly risk grave injury much more than their teammates do. But look at what Buffalo just gave Skinny! He has at least 4 concussions on his odometer. Yet, they knew they couldn’t afford to lose him. We cannot afford to lose Ferland. We certainly cannot replace him. C’mon!
Several reactions:
“Let’s keep Justin another season and hope for the best.” Hope is not a plan. 🙂
“And, from out of the blue, he can pull a bonehead play and let them score an easy one while he watches.” You simultaneously make him sound Fleury-like, yet untradeable. 🙂
“But look at what Buffalo just gave Skinny!” 8 years, $72mil., NMC, front loaded, with big bonuses that must paid if there is a lockout. That deal should not be used to rationalize any discussion, if only because it was made in Buffalo. 🙂
Oops! I missed a part.
I am dead set against trading any players or picks for anybody. If we can find a giant, strong and mean UFA defenseman, let’s pick him up. Any other position we think might need improvement we can draw upon our stockpile in Charlotte.
I think it is most likely time to trade Faulk – for more than a number of different reasons, including salary concerns. But as a one-year rentalwe have to recognize the return is not going to be particularly high unless he is packaged with some prospects and picks (which is not a bad idea at all).
The Ferland ship has sailed – we made our decision when we didn’t sign him early in the season or mid-season. As Waddell said yesterday they are not event talking to him or his agent.
I think the team is reluctant to rely on Ned as a backup next season – so I expect two NHL goalies to be on the roster. Ned has nothing left to prove in the AHL but he is still waiver exempt and I expect the team to rely on that. I think the decision on how much to pay Mrzaek will be a harder decision.
Every year I go into the preseason excited about the CLT prospects making the roster and every year I see the prospects sent back to the AHL for NHL veterans. I expect this year will be no different – Bean and maybe one forward making the roster being the exception – there is a strong bias to”can play in the NHL and not might be able to play”.
More reactions:
1. Today the increasing number of injuries at the position requires an NHL team be 3 deep with NHL ready goal tenders. Ned serves the team perfectly as the starter in Charlotte next season. He should stay there for that reason alone.
2. Ferland’s ship likely sailed when the doctors cleared him to return to the ice and he held himself out. In the playoffs, with RBA as coach, while Martinook played on one leg. Good way to get ticketed out of town.
Ferland returned to the ice but he wasn’t cleared to play. He had suffered a lung contusion – both painful and it affected his breathing. He definitely did not hold himself out though.
Lung contusions can be fatal. (Note: if you are in a car wreck, your air bag deploys and your chest hurts like hell have yourself evaluated in the ER for a lung contusion.) That injury explains the downturn in the 2nd half of his season, and am surprised he was cleared by doctors to go back on the ice at all. The treatment of that injury is not clear at all, and hockey players live in a world of very high risk for blunt chest trauma. I stand corrected on my criticism of Ferland. He deserves a lot of credit for coming back at all this post season. In my defense I do remember RBA telling the press that Ferland was day to day and he was waiting for Ferland to clear himself to go on the ice. Given the nature of the injury, the relative lack of substantive treatment protocols it is easy to see why Ferland was not reckless about leaving himself open to being smacked in the chest.
1) I can’t see a Faulk trade because on opening night the Canes don’t have a third pairing as both de Haan and TVR will be out. Once they are playing regular minutes I could see an in-season move. One other point–the surplus is on the left side with both Bean and Fleury deserving opportunities. Given his success, I wouldn’t move Pesce back unless absolutely necessary.
There is only a small chance that Ferland stays with the Canes. He wants the best contract possible, which I hope he gets as few people deserve it more. However, for the Canes the financial logic is completely against tying up money for multiple years on player who has injury issues. Tangential to the Ferland discussion, most of us are presuming that Maenalanen is the Cane that doesn’t have a spot. Yet in the playoffs he looked to be taking on the protector role.
Goalies are always a gamble. You mention that rookie goalies are doubly so. But you didn’t mention that when the gamble pays it is sometime at the highest level (Murray in 15-16, Binnington this season).
I understand the desire to bring in proven scoring talent. Yet, what is the point of having a farm system if players aren’t given every chance at the NHL level. Necas and Ned are ready. Bean appears to be ready. All of Saarela, Kuokkanen, and Luostarinen deserve long looks. Will any of them produce like a top UFA, of course not in 19-20. But any of them could become major contributors in the next 2-3 years. If they don’t get the chance, we will never know.
2) How to retain Vellucci. Now a few days past the Checkers’ coronation it is obvious that the head coach in Charlotte was an almost perfect combination of tactician (including for both special teams), motivator, disciplinarian, and optimist. The farm system still has tons of talent to develop, I don’t see a better fit if Vellucci leaves.
Your observation about Saku might be spot on. What is funny in that, though, is that after a kerfuffle about 2/3 the way into the season he indicated he had never been in a fight before. Look for him to play strong though as his game got stronger and more physical as the season progressed.
I wonder about Vellucci too – he is a Karmanos man from way back and I could sense some frustration in his voice during some of his interviews last season – from Zykov being waived to Necas not being called back up to the reluctance to play Ned. He is an assistant GM but it seems his voice wasn’t being heard from the Raleigh managers. But he is the absolute best at coaching young players – developing players in a winning environment. I am really curious about his level of satisfaction with the Canes and how he views his own career trajectory.
In total agreement CT. I do not need to add much. You already said my thoughts. Vellucci is an assistant GM, so that might keep him from moving. I want to keep Ferland but it all depends on the offers he gets, and agree he deserves it.
Justin Faulk’s age and the length of his next contract should absolutely be a concern. Given the depth we have in Charlotte and in Raleigh, it makes sense to move him.
I think Ferland will get something like $4mil x 4 years. That’s a little overpayment, but I think could be worth it because his game is just built for the playoffs. His health though is a concern, and you can imagine where the injuries take a toll and his play rapidly declines in 2 years.
1. faulk – = keep (unless the return is irresistible). The team will start the season thin on D and I prefer a known quantity to a 6th round pick in 2028, which is probably what the Canes wil settle for.
2. Ferland = sign for a max of 4 mill for 3 years. He’s a battler with skill and those are hard to come by. I’m feeling generous with TD’s cash this morning. If Ferland won’t settle on that it’s time to get him test the muky UFA waters.
3. Goalie – let Ned do his thing. It may sink the season but I’d rather have a team that is willing to draft, develop and pounce when there’s a chance of the ultimate prize. Mac can be the backup, If the team can sign Takarski on a reasonable 1.5 mill deal he could be the rhird spoke in the goalie wheel. Mrazek is probably going to ask for 5 mill on a long-term deal.
4. This is the time to give the kids a chance. Charlotte won it all, give the players responsible for the win a chance to take their drive and skill to the next level.
Try to get Panaren, show the hockey world that the Canes are ready to roll. There are a few other interesting UFA forwards that could be an upgrade on some of our bottom 6 guys, but primarily it’s time to take stock and give our own boys a chance.
Other concerns:
When is the Aho deal going to materialize, or are the Canes going to let it go to arbitration?
I came across a new story this morning that JW is not sure he is coming back, and I suspect if he feels that way now he is not very likely to return.
Aho is not eligible for arbitration – that takes 4 years of NHL experience.
The changes this offseason will probably surprise. Yes, the Canes just made huge strides reaching the ECF and our minor league affiliate won the Calder Cup. But how many teams have reached their respective conference finals only to fade the next year? And how many team’s AHL success translates to Stanley Cups? The answers would be equally surprising.
The club is still transitioning from outsider to insider (we barely made the playoffs and everything was squeezed from this group). They have room to promote a few from CLT who have earned their right to play solid minutes in the NHL, but I think the larger moves will be to make the NHL club better (as both RBA and DW stated). This is why I see no return for Ferland, Mac and Williams probably retires.
My roster additions from CLT include Ned, Necas and Bean. My roster additions from outside the org include a 2C capable of backfilling as 1C in desperate times; a veteran top 4D left shot; and an older “big game” goaltender (possibly Quick via trade) to mentor w/Ned until he proves capable. But the team has to be somewhat aggressive if they want to build upon what we have and be a top 3 team in the East. This means a few trades from surplus involving some we think are safe. So if we re-sign Faulk, someone else may be the trade chip.
I totally agree with you on the first point, that same team does not = same result.
Regarding the relatively weak correlation between AHL and NHL team success one factor that favors the canes (not favors, but gives some cause for optimism) is that this year’s checkers team is primarily manned by actual developing prospects, not a collection of former or subpar NHL players signed to AHL deals as often is the case.
There are some veterans in charlotte that are unlikely to ever see NHL ice (or see NHL ice again) but there are 10 to 12 players that are likely to see some NHL ice time somewhere.
The best AHL team I remember from recent past was the Norfolk Admirals, manned by the young core of the Lightning. If the Checkers can provide anything close to that it would be a reason to be optimistic.
Observation: Julien Gauthier, 6’4″ 225 lbs, age 21; Michaeal Ferland 6’1′ 215 lbs, age 27. Gauthier’s stats in his 2 years in the minors are much better than Ferland who played 2 years in the minors and entered the NHL at age 22. Gauthier has played 2 years in the minors and will turn 22 on Oct 17, 2019.
Observation: Julien Gauthier, 6’4″ 225 lbs, age 21; Michaeal Ferland 6’1′ 215 lbs, age 27. Gauthier’s stats in his 2 years in the minors are much better than Ferland’s who played 2 years in the minors and entered the NHL at age 22. Gauthier has played 2 years in the minors and will turn 22 on Oct 17, 2019.
But Gauthier is a not a hitter or a fighter. He is turning into a big, strong skater in the mode of Svech. Don’t expct Gauthier to take on the role of team enforcer.
Hopefully Saku will not get boxing lessons from the same coach as Svetch did. To be a 3rd line player he and Foegle will need to be more consistent offensively and more physically
Ferland will probably get more than predicted here, I think he is good fit for the Coyotes or Canucks.
I think Ned should get a chance in Ral. Someone like TOKARSKI could be signed as insurance. I like Petr but a more established goalie like Quick might make sense
You are correct. Hockeyfights.com has 20 videos of Ferland fighting as a junior and in the AHL. There are 2 of Gauthier during the same timeframe of his career to date. If Gauthier can challenge the other teams tough guys to a bench press competition he would kick ass however. Based on the comparison of AHL stats, Gauthier does appear to be the more skilled offensively.
I hope we resign Ferland. Gauthier stepping in is an interesting thought. I did not think about that possibility. It’s hard to say if he would want to become more physical.
This news fits your downside risks post yesterday. Bales has resigned as goaltender coach. As RBA repeatedly said all season, Bales was the one making the goaltending calls for each and every game.
https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/news/mike-bales-resigns-as-goaltending-coach/c-307811964
Faulk had a solid year and wore a letter for a season built on the idea that working hard nets results. It seems like very mixed message to the locker room to ship the guy now and that applies doubly if Williams retires.
Ferland is gone. Someone will give him more than he’s worth to this team.
My gut says sign both Mac and Petr. Undoubtedly there’ll be a chance for Ned to get his share of NHL starts with injuries or possibly regression.
The good news is we have a playmaker coming up from Charlotte in Necas and all indications from Svech indicate him being a more consistent point producer next year. Wallmark also produced well in the AHL and could take a step forward this year. Foegle showed some possible offensive chops. I doubt everyone in our depth will turn out to be breakout offensive stars I do think it’s very likely that we see a few more pucks go in for these guys than in their rookie seasons
While I’m not against making a move outside the organization this offseason, I’m also not looking too hard for one. Especially considered there are guys with some promise trying to make an impact with the big club. Being stuck with bad FA contracts or trading D only to lose another in expansion next year doesn’t make a lot of sense to me at this point.
A trio of player comments from the voice of the Checkers:
Andrew Poturalski:
played with a broken foot that barely healed and a hand that he accidentally cut open resulting in nerve damage right before the playoffs. Yet I never heard him complain. Over two months later, he emerged as the leading goal scorer and point producer in the playoffs along with the award for the playoff MVP. He had every excuse to shut it down and say he couldn’t play. Andrew has no contract for next season. A serious injury could jeopardize his career. Instead he helped lead his team to their first Calder Cup. He’s one of the best to put on a Checkers sweater and he’s also a terrific person. It also makes you wonder what he could’ve done if he was perfectly healthy the entire playoffs. I’m not sure Charlotte would’ve lost a single game.
Julien Gauthier:
used the playoffs to display the best hockey he’s ever played. In the finals, he was too big and strong for the Chicago defense to handle. He and Nick Roy, the French Connection/Towers of Power, dominated parts of that series. Gauthier has a gift for scoring goals but during the playoffs he played a gritty game and finished every hit all while basically playing on one good knee. Now he knows how to take his game to a level necessary to play in the NHL. The meaner Julien plays, the more impossible the task of other players to stop him.
Jurco:
Now a winner of two Calder Cups in his career, Tomas Jurco – who was picked up by Mike Vellucci from Springfield – solidified the Checkers lineup. With him, Charlotte went from good to great. He was the glue of that incredible line which included Martin Necas and Patrick Brown. Jurco is an NHL player and he will be on an NHL roster next season. This kid knows how to win. He has all the skill you’d want in a top-six player and he’s got the heart to go along with it. Once free agency opens up, there should be a line of teams calling to sign him. He was Charlotte’s version of Marian Hossa. That should give you an idea of how enormous his contributions were in the postseason. He’s a terrific kid as well.
Pots and Jurko are UFAs. We could still make offers. It is why we don’t need to go outside. I can see a very top end forward but we have so much waiting that we need to give chances to.
And isn’t that impressive about Poturalski? My mouth dropped when I read that in Shaya’s article (). Potsy is a warrior, and looked none the worse from his injuries throughout the playoffs.
He, of course, is a UFA this summer and I do wonder what the Canes and he decide to do. He only has 2 NHL games under his belt (2016-17 season) and has been one of the best players in the NHL the past two seasons.
Please try to directly credit other sources if you quote them in detail. And it is completely okay to include a link to an outside article if it is on topic.
Here is Jason Shaya’s article in full: http://gocheckers.com/articles/features/shaya-s-10-thoughts-june-12-2019
Matt
Certainly. I had copied the link to paste into my post but then got distracted and posted my comment without actually pasting it.
Another thought provoking article and comments. Hopefully these comments will also land.
On Bales, this smells like a slow motion play for Mrazek. Look for whoever Bales signs with tomorrow (or the next day) to have the inside track on Raz.
On filling out the roster, CT was spot on a couple days ago. It depends upon the strategy and plan. Is the organizational objective to win the cup next year, or in three years, or to build a dynasty, or something else?
If the Canes objective is to build a dynasty, build from within. They have one of the best pipelines ever. Charlotte is significantly better than all of the other AHL teams. With a large quantity of real prospects.
True, at the individual player level, AHL success doesn’t necessarily map into NHL success. However, the hurricanes have around 9 forwards that *might* be ready next year. More if you count McKegg and Saku and Foegele and Wallmark who proved they were ready this year. How many of them need to be ready to fill the available slots? It depends on the number of slots, but at most about 1 in 3. This is doable. We don’t know who they are yet, but 1 in 3 will come back ready to go.
If the objective is to go “all in” next year, CBJ style, and be careless about future years, then the opposite strategy is in order. Trade every one of the prospects for a few proven excellent forwards. I hate this option but it is a real option.
And then there are blended options in the middle. Have a long term plan, but if a Nino comes along as an option go ahead and take it. Get everything you can out of this year’s team while building a dynasty.
The one thing missing from some of the comments “we should do this or that” is the team objective presumed by each move. For example, “since we are building a dynasty from within with young players, they need to be protected with tough guys, or careers can be cut short”.
Or, “in order to build a dynasty from within we need the money from making the playoffs every year. With two players like X,Y added to the team, we can make another deep playoff run and fund the dynasty.”
The team hasn’t announced a strategy since GMRF’s “build from within”, so we are left to guess, but so far that appears to be the base strategy. Find or create RBA style players, keep the pipeline stocked, and build a team that can be very good for a very long time. That’s what I hope for and I think moves so far have been consistent with that long term strategy.
Nice comments on strategy. I think we learn a lot this offseason. I trust Waddell to make only smart hockey moves – I am not sure I trust RBA to put trust in AHL players and give them time in the NHL. We have both a playmaker/scorer (Necas) and a sniper (Saarela) who were outstanding in CLT – both should get serious looks. And Kuokkanen deserves a solid look as well. A team can only have so many Foegele’s aboard. It will be interesting to see what they do.
I do think Bales’ move has more to do with his connection to Botterill and the offer of seriously more pay. He is going to get to coach Hutton who has been seriously good in the past, plus he was in the Sabres organization as a player.
Wow, bales resignation. Did not see that coming. RBA allowed him to make the goalie decisions. That is what you would want. Don’t get it.