Entering the offseason, the Carolina Hurricanes seemingly needed to improve. The yearly refrain of needing better netminding definitely applied. At least part of the goals against equation was a blue line that was still hanging on potential but had yet to really materialize into a solid defense. And having finished 23rd in goals scored, the team also needed to find more offensive production.
With trade rumors still occasionally swirling around Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk, the offseason is far but complete, but I still figured it would be interesting to check in on the three offseason objectives and do a bit of a deeper dive on goal scoring at a simple math level.
In net, the team has opted to roll the dice and hope for a rebound. Scott Darling returns after a rough 2017-18 season, and Cam Ward was replaced by another rebound hopeful in Petr Mrazek.
Potentially helping the goaltending, the team has made significant upgrades to a defense that never materialized. The addition of Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan basically adds a top 4 defense pairing. Right now, I identify two sources for optimism. First is the hope that the improved blue line can lift the team across the board. Second is the potential for high-end youth to rise up rapidly.
The rest of today’s Daily Cup of Joe will do simple 2017-18 to 2018-19 math to consider the potential for more goal scoring. At a basic level, the greatest source of more scoring thus far probably comes from rookies including Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas, Warren Foegele and possibly others.
Players who carry forward
In total, 12 of 18 skaters carry forward from year to year. Right now, the blue line returns five in Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Haydn Fleury. The forwards return eight in Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal, Brock McGinn, Jeff Skinner, Justin Williams, Victor Rask and Phil Di Giuseppe.
If you simply assume the same production from the returning group on average, you are two-thirds through the lineup at even with 2017-18 scoring.
NHL for NHL player swaps
The team has also added two blue liners in Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan. As of right now with Justin Faulk still in tow, they would replace Noah Hanifin and Klas Dahlbeck. Those changes net an additional seven goals.
At forward, the team has added Micheal Ferland and Jordan Martinook who replaced Elias Lindholm and Marcus Kruger (the players that they were traded for). Here the Hurricanes added another 10 goals.
So comparing player for player through 16 out of 18 skater slots, the Hurricanes are up an impressive 17 goals.
Youthful upside
If one simply picks the two highest scorers from the departed players, the next two players to go are Derek Ryan who scored 15 goals and Lee Stempniak who scored three.
Given the current roster, one would figure the two openings left by Ryan and Stempniak would be filled by rookies with the front runners being Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele and Lucas Wallmark. As first year NHLers, one would reasonably expect some inconsistency and ups and downs, but by sheer talent alone, 18 goals does not seem like too much of an ask for two talented rookies combined.
If you count two rookies for 15 goals each, the team nets another 12 goals.
Netting it out
So when you tally up the gains, the team gets 7 goals from the blue line, 10 goals from the direct forward swaps and 12 more goals from rookies stepping in for depth forwards. The total is an impressive increase of 29 goals.
Adding 29 goals to the Hurricanes’ 20171-18 total vaults the team from 23rd to 11th in total scoring which would be significant progress.
But what about the trade wild card?
But the current math still includes Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk who are both rumored to be on the trading block. If both players departed, the team would lose 32 goals. The team would automatically get some of those goals back just by swapping anyone into the two open roster spots. But rookies or replacement level players would not recoup all of the 32 goals lost.
My math says that the team must return one proven NHL scorer in the 20 goal range if Skinner departs. In doing that, the team would still be minus some goal scoring but would still improve to about the league average. That would put the ball on the tee for an upward surprise if the improved blue line just boosted everyone or if even just one of the young guns emerged ahead of schedule as an NHL scorer.
What say you Canes fans?
1) With the current roster, do you think a 25-30 goal increase is within reach as the simple math suggests? Or is that overstating the gains?
2) What do you think is a reasonable and an upside target for goals for the rookies who could push into the lineup?
3) Do you think it is possible to still make the math work if Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk both depart without returning a higher-end scorer?
Go Canes!
1) As the resident optimist, I think an increase of 20 goals is likely. More than that counts on two things I am not feeling so good about: A–netting a 20-goal scorer for one of Faulk or Skinner; B–Ferland scoring like he did last season. I think counting on 12 goals is much more realistic for Ferland (he scored 6 power play goals last season and he really shouldn’t be on either unit with the Canes)*.
2) Matt, my question is do you know something? Where is Zykov in your analysis? I wouldn’t be surprised to see both Zykov and Svechnikov around 20 goals. I think Svechnikov has the upside of 30 (Skinner did it as a rookie and all indications are that Svech is as talented at finding the back of the net). I expect Zykov will net at least 15 with upside of 22-24. Foegele could get 12 depending on line mates. I can’t see Wallmark in the lineup to start the season.
3) Even if the team doesn’t add a scoring winger, I think 10-12 more goals is likely because Zykov/Svechnikov/Ferland/Martinook/Foegele should score more than Lindholm/Ryan/Kruger/Nordsrom/Skinner. In fact, the power play is likely to produce 10-12 more goals.
As far as the D–Hamilton will likely get 12-15, so more than Faulk’s 8 last season. I think the improvement comes from Pesce and TVR both getting 2-4 more goals than last season plus the 3-5 de Haan will score. Losing Hanifin, the D is likely plus 3-5.
While it is likely some returning forwards drop off by a few goals, Aho should actually break 30 this season. He has to score in October at some point! I also think McGinn has a decent shot at 20 goals this season.
Without doing addition/subtraction for all 12 forwards, I think the Canes score 14-20 more this season. That could get to 29 if the Canes are able to return a scoring LW for either Faulk or Skinner.
*Power play unit 1=Aho/TT/Svechnikov/Staal/Hamilton; unit 2=Williams/Necas/Zykov/new player or McGinn/d-man
1. Between Necas, Svech, Martinook, Hamilton, Zykov, and Ferland with a healthy Rask we should easily see a 25-30 goal increase. That group would need to score 71 goals to be 25 more than Lindy, Hanifin, Ryan, and Stemp’s contributions.
Svech- 25 goals
Necas- 16
Martinook-10
Hamilton- 20 (getting that 1st PP time)
Zykov- 20
Ferland- 15
heck that is 96. I dont think those are stretches for Svech, Hamilton, or Zykov. Zykov’s number might change if he doesnt play with Aho and Turbo. We may not see an increase in Rask’s goals this year but a healthy Rask could be setting up more linemates for goals, increasing their totals.
When Faulk is moved we lose 8 goals from last year. Again I think we are looking at a +50 goals here. The numbers get a little dicey if we send Skinner off for futures as well.
Of course this isnt counting any growth from McGinn, Aho or Turbo. Does Skinner get closer to 40 goals again this season?
Even better we should be allowing less goals next season with our stout D. de Haan’s addition will really help solidify the defensive portion of defense. Also take some of the left side work load on Slavin, making his numbers better.
“Of course this isn’t counting on any growth” but we also should ask ourselves about the scenario that you haven’t touched on – the inevitability that some of the players score LESS goals than they did last year. But it’s no fun to predict that right? 😛
McGinn had a high shooting percentage even with all his posts hit – I could see him, possibly Terevainen, possibly Jordan Staal and especially Justin Williams all being candidates for offensive setbacks next season. Ferland could be another candidate. There is quite literally zero baseline to even start making predictions from regarding most of the rookies so I’m not sure what to count for them.
1. I think if Skinner stays, there could be an increase of 20-30 goal increase, although there’s a LOT riding on rookies Zykov, Svech, Necas. That’s exciting, but also worrisome, as they will have some growing pains.
2. I think Necas will be like Lindholm to start, in that he’s more of an assist machine. Zykov could be the opposite, especially if paired with Aho-TT for the season and getting PP time. Svechnikov is fun to imagine the possibilities, but I think depends which line he plays on. Here’s my guess:
Zykov: 25-15-40pts
Necas: 13-28-41pts
Svech: 22-22-44pts
3. I can’t imagine that we trade Skinner and only get back prospects and picks at this point. Faulk is expendable because of Hamilton/deHaan signings, so a pick and prospect is reasonable return. Skinner’s goals are much harder to replace, but also we might improve in goal differential because of Skinner’s atrocious defensive play. I’d be really nervous if neither Skinner or Faulk returned a top-6 forward and again – goes to #2 – there’s a lot then riding on rookies.
Agree with the early sentiment that a lot is riding on rookies stepping in and immediately producing offensively.
The group has enough talent that it is possible, but I also think Aho’s rookie season where he was “really good”, but that really meant “for a rookie”. He posted a good but not earth-shattering 49 points. It’s not inconceivable that the rookies also do “really good for a rookie” and that translates to low to mid 40s in points.
Clearly, it’s nearly impossible to predict the starting lineup for this coming year! With any trades of Faulk and/or Skins the return (s) could be zero goals to many goals! AND…the rookies we have in the mix provide several possible goal-scorers.
As I mentioned in an earlier blog post, Wallmark led the Checkers in points scored last year! Also, as a center (a position which is not DEFINITELY FILLED 1-4) Wallmark should be as good a candidate for a slot there, IMO! After Staal, none of the center slots are set in stone. Aho – maybe wing/ center, Rask – maybe in Raleigh, Charlotte, or ELSEWHERE? Necas – same thing, and even could be a wing.
If Faulk is moved…one possible return could be a Center.
Soooo I really think that the scoring predictions NOW…are premature!
It’s fun to discuss, but there’s little hope for accuracy.
1) yes, 25-30 goal improvement is within reach. When combined with improved defense, the improvement to +/- is even more exciting (will someone please invent a better version of +/- ?).
2) This article on projected rookie scoring is fun. https://nsjonline.com/article/2018/07/predicting-how-the-hurricanes-rookie-forwards-will-do-in-2018-19/
The article projects 32 points for Zykov, 44 points for Svechnikov, and 27 points for Necas. Nearly identical to the output from Lindholm, Ryan, stempniak from last year.
Another factor that is impossible to predict that I feel is even more relevant with two rookies is health. Two young rookies who played 40 ish league games last season needed to step in and fill important roles in an 82 game NHL season? Tall order in my opinion… I am going to be dreading the first moment we see one of them slow to get up after a big hit…
An X factor in scoring is how Rod changes the system. BP worshipped possession. So much so that there was rarely a net front presence. The result was abysmal scoring from the back end. A more frequent player blocking the opposition goalie could dramatically increase those results. Not to mention a possible increase in tips and rebounds.
This is a common misconception. Check out the shot heat charts at hockeyviz. The 17-18 Hurricanes actually had more shots within 5 or so feet of the net than the typical NHL team. They did get shots from 10-40 feet in the middle of the ice. Too many shots from along the boards.
The new look Canes need to drive to the net and find open shooters near the low face off circles. At hockey-graphs there was an analysis of optimal scoring opportunities. In a nutshell the best play is blue line then behind the goal and quickly to a shooter near the circle.
Typing on phone. Should say did NOT get shots in center of ice.
If you caught TD’s interview the other day, he seemed to be saying there will be a lot of good players in camp and that he is willing to risk waivers on some of them if others take their place. I thought that was an interesting sentiment to express. Someone correct me if I heard it wrong, though.