Important disclaimer: Last summer, Ron Francis made his biggest deal in September when he plucked Kris Versteeg and Joakim Nordstrom from the Blackhawks roster for virtually nothing. So any year over year roster analysis is obviously an interim check in.
Important to select correct rosters for comparison
Critical to trying to determine of the Hurricanes are better or worse off roster-wise is selecting the correct point in time for the 2015-16 roster. The comparison point should be the roster that the Hurricanes won with during their surge from early December through the end of February when things changed significantly at the trade deadline. The team from that 3-month stretch is the one that needs to be bettered or even just matched if it can be sustained for a full 82-game season.
Lost from the December-February roster
Lost from the winning roster from 2015-16 are Eric Staal, Kris Versteeg and John-Michael Liles. There are a few other depth players who have also departed, but those players were sharing time in the #11 and #12 slots and not the drivers of the team’s success during the winning run from early December through the end of February.
Most significant is the loss of Eric Staal and Kris Versteeg who accounted for two-thirds of the Hurricanes top line. On the surface, the duo and the line that they led does not seem hard to replace. Eric Staal’s scoring totals were underwhelming at 33 points in 63 games. Kris Versteeg had exactly the same points total in exactly the same number of games. But what is lost is the role that the line had driving possession and controlling play. Both players were among the team leaders in advanced statistical measures of possession and shot percentages. While they were never able to convert offensive zone time, puck possession and good shot differentials into first line scoring, they did do their part to hold other teams down. The result was a team that was 2 lines deep in terms of giving up very little. The result was a team that stayed in games and collected points at a playoff-type pace winning tight games or least pushing to overtime.
That top line that had Versteeg/EStaal as a constant with a mix of primarily Elias Lindholm or Phil Di Giuseppe at right wing is what the Hurricanes must replace this summer. I think the task is more challenging than a quick look at scoring totals might indicate.
Also not to be missed is the departure of John-Michael Liles. Liles, combined with Brett Pesce, was the defensive equivalent of the Versteeg/EStaal combination. The defensive duo did not generate a ton offensively, but they were generally safe and sound, difficult to play against and mostly mistake free. The result was a combination that was not flashy but gave up very little. Pesce looked nowhere near as good when playing with Noah Hanifin who is also young and still learning too. The chemistry that Liles had with Pesce should not be underestimated when trying to build the 2016-17 roster. It is possible that the Hurricanes take a step down replacing Liles if a young player hits a bump in the road and also a step down with Pesce who fit incredibly well with Liles.
Gained this summer
To replace Kris Versteeg and Eric Staal in the top half of the forwards, the Hurricanes added Teuvo Teravainen and Lee Stempniak. These two players seem capable of replacing the raw scoring that departed, but the more significant challenge for Bill Peters might be finding lines that can match the chemistry and style of play and the puck possession that resulted from it. In addition to proven NHLers Teravainen and Stempniak, Sebastian Aho and the huge potential that he brings to the lineup is a wild card. He has yet to play even a minor league professional game in North America, so projecting what he will do is a guess at this point. But the offensive potential is there for him to quickly play his way up the roster.
John-Michael Liles will be replaced from young players moving up the depth chart. Jaccob Slavin was the player who saw the biggest increase in ice time and role when Liles left and Justin Faulk was eventually shelved for the season due to injury. He absolutely excelled in a bigger role. The volume of young defensemen with NHL experience and new reinforcements seeking NHL experience offer plenty of options to back fill Liles’ slot, but there is much to be said for having some predictable and safe veterans in the lineup to provide support and stability.
Key measuring points
When you net it out, there are two important points of comparison. The first is whatever Coach Bill Peters ices as a top scoring line to play alongside Jordan Staal’s line. With Peters’s comments at prospect camp about trying Elias Lindholm and Teuvo Teravainen together, my best guess right now is that the first try for a top line will be Skinner/Rask/Stempniak. That line could make or break the Hurricanes offensively and more generally at forward. Slotted as a first or second line, they will see a heavy helping of other teams’ first and second lines. Against Metropolitan Division foes that includes a regular does of players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessell, Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek, John Tavares, Alexander Ovechkin, Niklas Backstrom, etc. At home, Bill Peters will try to match Jordan Staal’s line against the other teams’ best, but on the road a Skinner/Rask/Stempniak line will surely be tested by opposing coaches to see if they can hold their own against elite lines.
The other key measuring point will be if Peters can find chemistry and quality to build two defense pairings similarly capable of spending most of their ice time against the other teams’ best players. The pieces seem to be there but in the form of young players who are still learning.
Go Canes!
Excellent observations, as usual. I just want to say that I’m new to your website, but in the short time I’ve been here, I’ve found your articles to be some of the most detailed, intelligent, and entertaining that’s out there in regards to the Carolina Hurricanes – and this includes the world’s professional media. I’m doing my best to spread the word to my Cane’s friends about your site. Keep up the good work. In regards to this particular article – I feel we can get by with the lack of a true number one center, which in turn equates to a true quality first line, meaning we may squeak into the playoffs this year. But to make a deep run, you’ve got to have that superstar presence to lean on. It’s the same in all professional sports.
Welcome aboard and thank you for your kind words!
Any and all help reaching out to other Canes fans is tremendously appreciated. Without a marketing budget and especially for those not Twitter-inclined, it is the only way to reach more people.
In today’s NHL, the best way to boost scoring is not adding 1-2 expensive players but rather to increase pace, ability to move the puck and attack with speed/off the rush. Here is hoping that the Canes young, skating blue line makes the lack of a true first line immaterial.
Agree with goaliedad Matt – nice article. Skinner playing against the top lines you listed is a terrifying prospect. I’m not a big Skinner fan but I do admit (happily) that he improved significantly on the defensive side in 2015-16. However, putting him up against the long list of superior offensive players you list mitigates what he brings to the lineup which is scoring goals. You’ve pointed out in numerous articles the lack of a true #1 line and specifically the absence of a #1 play making center. This hole in the lineup has repercussions for all 4 lines and likely affects Jeff Skinner and his future role more than anyone.
Good article as usual and goaliedad’s and tenininumee’s comments also have merit. My only addition involves the difficulty of determining expected outcomes or performance. For example, if the proposed Skinner-Rask line has to play against the other team’s “top scoring line” it seems the concern is how well will they perform defensively. That is one way to look at things. Another is how much will the Skinner-Rask line benefit or improve scoring wise by playing against the other team’s “top scoring line” instead of the other team’s “shutdown” line. Also, Skinner-Rask will not have to play against the other team’s top scoring line in 41 games as Peters will put out the Staal-Nesty-Nordstrom line at home against them.
In light of the above, it would appear Peters would just have to mold the best scoring combinations (players who jell together the best) for two scoring lines and let the Staal-Nesty-Nordy and the 4th line act as the shutdown lines.
Be careful what you wish for…
That s/b OR Should Have Been, what most of us (me included) thought , when we wanted to see Eric moved… NOW WHAT? Yep, he is not that easy to replace, is he? Of course, many of us thought Ronnie would just pick up a FA replacement for him, or Make-A-Trade, eh?! Now it would seem that isn’t in the cards… SOOOO…. We’ve got no 1C (who scores like a 1C should)! But at least we can count on our great goalies to… oh, wait, …we still have RF, Roddy, and coach P….to do a magic act?
I am brand new here as a participator. I have been reading your blog for years on Hockeybuzz. We usually agree, but on two items, I must offer my 2 cents. The first is on Ryan Murphy. I believe he will be outstanding, given the right environment (forwards that present a credible scoring threat and a partner who can back him up). Second, I hope that I correctly read the strategy of both Peters as well as Francis on scoring pairs. I am an old hockey fan. Let me cite to you four of the greatest scoring lines in NHL history. Jean Beliveau and Yvan Cournoyer, Phil Esposito and Ken Hodge, Jean Ratelle and Rod Gilbert, Alex Delvecchio and Frank Mahovlich. In each case, we saw spectacular scoring chemistry. In each case we saw no ability to protect themselves from opposing goons trying to put them off their games. So, in each case we saw the third member of the line added who was big, strong, and with an “edge”. John Ferguson, Wayne Cashman, Vic Hadfield, and Gordie Howe, respectively. Each of these men made their presence felt by opposing defensemen, as well as back-checking forwards such that the defensemen and back-checking forwards were always looking over their shoulders or trying to push these equally strong and aggressive men from screening their goalies. Freed up from harassment, the scoring pairs did their thing with impunity. Add defensemen who posed an additional scoring threat like Bobby Orr and Brad Park, the effect was amazing. Even the third members to these lines often scored over 20 goals per season, just because they were on the ice with their line mates. Call me silly, but I would love to see Bickell out there with Rask and Skinner, Gauthier or Sutter out there with Teravainen and Stepniak. Add a scoring defenseman like Murphy, and we can threaten the best of them. 4 years ago, I decided to not renew my season ticket. I bought one for this season. I like what Francis and Peters are doing. I am excited. I wouldn’t miss this season for the world.
Hey Scribbler…Welcome aboard! I am thrilled to see conversation starting to pick up. That is WAY better than some random guy yammering into the darkness (which is usually when I write). 🙂
I do not project Ryan Murphy as a top 4 NHL defensemen, but I think he could be on his way to being a very good ‘new NHL’ #5 who can skate, tilt the ice into the offensive zone and attack offensively.
Not sure how soon (training camp will be interesting), but I like Gauthier’s potential to add a power forward to a scoring line.
I missed the “greatest”. The scoring pair of Wayne Gretzky and Jari Kurry. Add third line mate Mark Messier, and you had a great line. Defenseman Paul Coffey made it even better.