Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a small batch of quick hitters.
Micheal Ferland
Micheal Ferland has reportedly signed a four-year deal for $3.5 million per year with the Vancouver Canucks. What started as a gap between the team and Ferland during the winter and seemed to grow as time passed likely made it impossible that Ferland was going to return, but on a simple financial level, the deal is in the neighborhood of something I would have considered. Even considering some injury risk $3.5 million per year is a fair price for a player with a unique skill set and capability of being a good complementary top 6 forward. That $3.5 million yearly salary is increasingly a third line rate, and even on a bad day Ferland is at least that. The tougher question is the risk that comes with the four year term. I would jump at that salary for two years. I would probably still take it at three years. At four years, it becomes a bit tougher and probably something I pass on with some hesitation.
I view Ferland as a player who proved capable of being a complementary player with the ability to match pace and finish enough to be a productive scorer. In addition, I think his ability to be a physical disruptor is underrated. Ferland’s combination of skating and brute force makes the ice dangerous for opposing players with the result being players peeking up from the puck and sometimes getting rid of it early.
The Hurricanes have not really replaced Ferland’s physical edge and role as ultimate policeman, and I think that will be missed, but with the four-year term, I am content to be happy for him and wish him well in Vancouver.
Brian Gibbons
A lower key signing last week was 31-year old Brian Gibbons. Gibbons brings another veteran AHL center with NHL experience. The Hurricanes have had a good run identifying good fits first adding Greg McKegg at the trade deadline in 2018 and then adding Tomas Jurco last season. Gibbons slots nicely as a C5 down in Charlotte who would not be overwhelmed or in over his head if pressed into action at the NHL level. I view Gibbons as being veteran reinforcements to replace either Patrick Brown or Tomas Jurco but at half the cost in terms of guaranteed salary at the AHL level.
Ryan Warsofsky
On Wednesday it was announced that Ryan Warsofsky had been named to replace departed Charlotte Checkers Head Coach Mike Vellucci. The move is an interesting one reaching from within the organization and making Warsofsky the youngest AHL head coach at only 31 years of age. He is only four months older than the aforementioned Brian Gibbons.
As would be expected or a 31-year old coach, Warsofsky’s resume is successful but fairly modest. At the ECHL level, he has three years as an assistant coach and another two as a head coach including a run to the ECHL finals. And last season as an assistant under Vellucci was his first at the AHL level.
I do not have enough visibility to Warsofsky to evaluate him as a coach, but a couple things jump out. I like the fact that he could be an up and comer having had success at the ECHL level despite limited experience (sounds like another coach we know). I also like the fact that he had a year under Vellucci and with AHL success. The big question will be whether he can match Vellucci in terms of player development.
What say you Canes fans?
1) If given the chance, would you have re-signed Micheal Ferland for four years at $3.5 million per year? If not, what price and term (if any) would you have offered?
2) What are your thoughts on Ryan Warsofsky’s hiring to be the head coach at the AHL level?
Go Canes!
I agree Gibbons is likely the 5C on paper and begins in CLT, but would not be surprised to see him as 4C on opening night either. If the team does not bolster their top 9, it might be feasible to slide Haula to top 6W, bumping Wallmark to 3C. Gibbons has played almost 200 NHL games, including playoffs.
Promoting Warofsky makes sense on several levels. I do not see his age as a knock either. Most players nowadays arrive more developed than before. I would argue most NHL talent is developed in junior hockey levels, colleges and overseas. The players who are drafted and arrive in the AHL for significant time usually require a transition period, either to learn NHL sized ice or just needing to play against men for the first time (out of the junior leagues). This takes some pressure off AHL coaches in general, but Warofsky and should be able to relate to young guys and maintain a proven system that has been put in place.
Ferland got $3.5mil/year for 4 years with a $2mill signing bonus. AAV is $4mil/year. The first 2 years have a NMC, the second 3 a modified NTC, He will be turning 31 at the end of the 4th year. Ferland is a rare commodity, the risk/reward ratio seems reasonable. It seems a reasonable deal for both parties. I would have been happy with that deal. There must have been some bad water under the bridge here, causing one or both parties to be happy to see the relationship end. Ferland became a one year rental for Elias Lindholm, short term a good deal for both parties. The big regret will be timing did not permit using him to be used as a valuable trade chip at the trade deadline.
Warsofsky seems a reasonable hire. Promoting from within always has merits.
While age stands out, he is not under experienced for the responsibility. Some may choose to see this as simply a bargain basement shopping deal by TD, I don’t. Both of Bellucci’s predecessors were much older, much more experienced. Each lasted one unremarkable year. Warsofsky will coach a team very unlike the one that just won the Calder Cup. He (or whomever else might have been chosen) will pretty much be starting over in Charlotte.
1. I think this deal is pretty much what Ferland had been wanting – ~4M with moderate term. I am glad he found it in VAN. And I expect that term, more than dollars, was the reason we didn’t sign him last December and why it took him a while to get signed this summer. This is his payday, but I also understand he and his wife wanted to find a place to raise their 5-yo daughter and give her some stability. I would have been happy with this deal. That said, I am not sure how that number would work in Waddell’s view on cap structure going forward.
Expect 2/2 to be an interesting evening at PNC – bodies will be flying.
2. All in all, I like the hire. He had five years with one of the best organizations in the ECHL including a successful stint as HC. He had a good year under the master of player development. But is he going to match Vellucci in that way? – I do find that hard to believe. Vellucci has so much experience in player development – it seemed he has a true feel for it, knowing how to get players to respond and improve. I wouldn’t expect the same from Warsofsky.
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With Ferland now gone (although he was effectively gone a while ago) – we traded Hanifin and Lindholm for Hamilton. And with Jurco gone, we traded Skinner for a couple of draft picks (plus his undeniable contributions to CLT and, hopefully, Necas’s development). Just a bit of thought there.
And I did see a Vegas writer pencilling in Roy as 4C for the GKs.
Waddell did seem to say they are done – he is just “dabbling” and is only looking at depth players. The cupboard is pretty bare in CLT, and according to CapFriendly we only have 32 contracts (36 when we get our RFAs signed). That is not enough to field teams in Raleigh and CLT.
Well, we let a difference maker top 6 forward walk for 3.5M@ 4 years, really!!! And we could not make that deal!!! Even if he does get hurt that was not an over payment.
This not paying players culture is not good. Aho signed an offer sheet. How many of our coaches and UFAs left. Yes, turnover happens but IMO, too much.
So we are back in the mode of letting other teams to take liberties on us. We are easier to play against. Our defense is worse, our offense is worse. We did a great job at the draft and we have additional draft picks next year. So we are positioning to be a low cap team. I thought we wanted to win. My enthusiasm for next year has taken a setback. I think loosing that physical aspect is going to really hurt our team. The off-season is not over yet but we are moving backwards.
Warsofsky, it’s good to promote from within. We let so many developed player go, he will be starting over again.
Gibbons, depth. You never know, maybe he comes up and helps during the season.
To me, there are 2 ways to win:
1. Buy it, attract top players, top talent, pay for diference makers that can take the team all the way. Identify and sign under valued talent.
2. Grow it- Start with draft picks, invest in top quality coaching and support staff to develop those guys into high quality homegrown talent, find ways to convince them to stick with their home team, by treating them fairly, signing contracts early, bet on them.
It seems like the Canes aren’t doing either of those things.
They let Skinner (a Canes draft pick, developed for years in the Canes organization) walk for nothing )a second round pick, whatever, he scores 40 goals, there are still people who justify it with “culture”excuses, even saying that the return was acceptable), they trade Hannifin an Lindholm for one player and a one-year rental, they refuse to sign that rental to a new contract that, to me, sounds awfully reasonable for what he brings, they force Aho into a game of chicken that ends with a pricy offer sheet and bad blood. They trade away a steady and reliable defenseman for a cheaper one (but cheaper for a reason).
This is clearly a salary dump, whenever there is a risk of having to pay, they let the player choose between being underpaid or walking.
The Darling for Reimer trade is a bit of an enigma, they added salary there, but I still suspect the team will try to trade Reimer away for something, having two NHL salary goalies in net is unlikely to sit well with the management.
When it comes to development:
They let a successful goalie coach walk (for a comparable job elsewhere), they let the most successful AHL coach in the team’s history walk (again for a same job with similar (lack of) promotion aspects), they do not resign or promote the core of their Calder Cup champion team (other players will take notice of this).
These are, for the most part, players that the Canes organization has developed for years, some of them have NHL potential.
If you don’t pay for talent, opting instead for picks, and if you do not support the development of young playersand trade them away when there is a risk of a pricy contract, how are you ever going to win?
As for the questions:
1. Ferland’s deal was absolutely reasonable, not resigning him for this money will come back to haunt us.
2. Good hire, that guy was super successful running the Checkers’ powerplay. I hope he’ll succeed but wonder if he wasn’t just the least expensive option available (still, I think he did a great job as part of last year’s coaching staff, so I think he may do good things, though he has a lot less to work with).
3. Meh, (but I said that about Martinook too and boy was I wrong, but Martinook brought a skill that the Canes need, Gibbons does not bring size or physical toughness, whatever else he may bring, at least he comes cheap).
You said it better then I did.
I get that Ferland leaving after 1 year changes the Calgary trade, but in focusing only on remaining players people are missing key pieces of value in that trade.
First, Ferland contributed (significantly in the 1st half of the season) to the Hurricanes making the playoffs. That has significant value that should not just be written off because he is no longer with the team.
In addition, though the Hurricanes were unable to sign Adam Fox, they did pretty well converting his rights into a 2nd round pick in 2019 and a 3rd round pick in 2020 that could become a 2nd-rounder. In trading down, the 2019 pick became Jamieson Rees and Anttoni Honka. That fits well inside a ‘develop from within’ focus.
Except we develop them and let them go. Sorry Matt but I am not happy with what I have been seeing. It’s good to have good business sense and control your cost but it appears we are doing it to such extremes that we are chasing talent away. Something is clearly wrong with what has been happening. The game of chicken with Aho really turned me off. I was not happy with Aho either, as he signed the offer sheet. Bad blood for everyone. We are a weaker team. Off-season is not over yet but we are moving backwards. Just an opinion, not a criticism of your comments. All opinions welcomed.
Touche! 😀
I agree on Ferland in the same as I did with Jurco – the contributions he made last season were important.
And I did forget what we got for Fox.
It was not meant to be touché. Not taking shots. I am not happy with the culture, in this case business culture, we are seeing. It’s nice that we are tough negotiators (I say that sarcastically) but we are failing.
Sorry, icecobra. I was referencing Matt’s remark as a response to my own musings.
No problem at all tj. Just misinterpreted it.
Matt, I think you’re sugar-coating it, quite a bit!
Development of players…Then giving them away, just to do it again, is NOT a working strategy, IMO!
Hoarding extra picks is pointless, IF YOU DON’T USE THEM.
UNLESS, we have a good plan in place to make a significant move…
the train is off the tracks!
Our prospects in Charlotte are still ONLY PROSPECTS, I HOPE THAT ISN’T THE ONLY THING WE HAVE TO HOPE FOR??!!
So last year, the team put 3 drafted and system-developed players into the lineup in Foegele, Wallmark and Fleury with a reasonable degree of success.
The core of the team on defense is Slavin, Pesce and maybe Faulk who were all drafted and developed and Aho is the centerpiece at forward.
That is a lot.
I think one thing that comes with having a large prospect pool is some pruning of players who either do not develop or are replaceable as depth players with modest ceilings.
It is an interesting debate. Will have to see if I can find enough time to pull together an article on it.
Hoarding picks is good for this organization. I’d say we drafted well and got fortunate with some core players who were NHL or near-NHL ready (Svech included). A majority of our core was not groomed in the AHL. Slavin played 14 games in CLT… Pesce 7, Aho zero. Faulk joined CLT right out of college for a playoff run, then played a near full NHL season before returning to CLT for additional seasoning. So in fairness, I don’t think any of these players really developed in the AHL and instead were just darn good picks.
We have groomed 3rd and 4th liners well, but impact players usually reach the NHL quickly (so more picks the better odds).
who are they going to replace? I understand your frustration, however, I don’t see it the same way…. really, who will they replace?
Ferland: His history for past two or three years has been great 1st half of a year performer and disappears in second half. We will miss his physicality (when he played). It remains to be seen what he does in Vancouver and what we do with the 3.5 million we saved. I’m not ready to go off the deep end over a player who was not available to play for over a half year’s time during which the team had a remarkable record without him.
Warsofsky: He’s young. So what? We have hockey people in charge who think he can do the job. Why can’t he? If the answer is he is too young, I don’t buy it. I don’t know enough about this guy to comment either way, but I do know that his age does not bother me.
I’ve been confused about the Ferland situation from the day he was traded to the Canes. It seems as if almost instantly, there were rumors that he wouldn’t sign with Carolina. That was even before there were any serious (at least in public) discussions regarding a salary or contract term. What was the real issue? A Canadian boy wanting to play in the North? Worries from Canes management about longevity and injury concerns? I just don’t see how a contract near what he eventually signed for in Vancouver doesn’t make just as much sense for the Canes. As is often discussed, playoff hockey is a completely different type of game and you need players like Ferland to be successful. I don’t get it. The situation just smells of something else affecting his desire to come back to Carolina. Maybe he hates Finns. Let’s start something anyway if nothing is there already. It’s summer and no hockey.
I think the issue was term – I had heard from someone in the organization that even before he laced up the skates here he and his wife fell in love with the area and Ferland went upstairs to the 4th floor on his own to tell management he wanted to stay and sign.
I would have liked to keep Ferland. Even though the fourth year is big risk especially if the salary cap( or canes budget)doesn’t go up as expected .
The Canes are developing young players. Players like Necas/Gauthier can move into top six roles. Bean/Fleury into regular D spots. Ned/Forsberg into a NHL goalie spot. 2-4 rookies are a lot, especially for a playoff team from the previous year( and hopefully one that contends again in 19-20).
Adding rookies every year works well for Tampa.
16-17: Point (also the season 22-year-old became starting goalie); 17-18: Gourde and Sergachev; 18-19: Cirelli, Joseph, and Cernak.
I think adding Ned, Necas, and Bean at a minimum will make the team better.
Yes, Tampa is a good model and a fellow non-trad. market.
Good points on the optimistic side.
One in hand IS BETTER…than two in the bush!
…prospects always are intriguing, but reality is…UNTIL THE TIME THEY SUCCEED, they’re just another “shiny object”!
Hopefully the masterplan is to add Ned, Bean, Gauthier and Necas here and hopefully at least 3 of the 4 succeed.
Like I said, if you want to be cost effective, draft well, develop your draft picks and give them a chance.
Drafting has been pretty decent, development has been grt but there ar some questions around it, I think the team was too quick in trading away talent this summer (not trading aathem as much as just letting them walk for the most part).
Sure, some of those players are replaceable, but replacements of a rookie with an NHL player, even one with modest success is always going to imply additional cost.
I agree with Matt that the team has successfully added prospects, though I do not see the Fleury audition as successful )partly on the player, partly because while he was technically with the NHL team he spent most of the time in the press box or on the bench, he didn’t really get a shot to contend or fail).
Well, we all want to see perannual playoff hockey in Raleigh, so we all agree on the goal.
I wonder if the philosophy this year is to basically say that the team needs to take a step back and develop the next wave of prospects and then try to go all in for the 2020/20201 season (hopefully with Necas playing well, Gauthier providing extra grit, Svech becoming an elite scorer etc.).
I’d be willing to take a stepbackthis upcoming season if there is logic in it, but the actions this summer lack the logic I am looking for.
Breezy. I agree with the timeline point. This season should be about getting Necas and Bean NHL experience and starting Ned on the path to being the starter when Mrazek needs a new contract.
If one of Gauthier, Kuokkanen, or Luostarinen forces his way into the lineup all the better.
The window will begin in 2020 and should be open for four seasons (until Aho/TT/Pesce are UFAs).
Lots of hand wringing going on around here. A lot of it about things that have minimal impact on the team. Switching out guys who are marginal NHL/veteran AHL players amounts to very little. Those guys move around all the time. It’s part of the game. Old trades don’t effect the team next year either. What’s done is done. They made the playoffs without those players and the young talent they have is a year older and more experienced. They may even have a legit #2/#3 centerman next year in Haula. Paying $4-$5M for third paring defensemen isn’t going to happen in Carolina due to budget issues. Last year was an outlier as they were close to the floor. The truth is the sky is not falling.
The issue with Ferland’s contract in the first half of the season may have been term. By the end of the year the Canes just plain didn’t want him anymore. I can’t say that I blame them. If you look at his production over the past few years he does well when paired with Gaudreau or Aho, but poorly everywhere else. His health is a serious concern. It seems that he has concussion issues. Not good for a guy asked to be an enforcer. If he doesn’t have concussion issues he has other issues. He had his chance to support his teammates in the Washington series when Svech got beat up. What did he do? Play a shift, bump someone on the wall, and then take himself out of the game. Concussions? Understandable. If not, inexcusable. Ferland is either damaged goods or only an enforcer when it suits him.
Gibbons? Marginal NHL player. Plenty around. More can be found throughout the year on the waiver wire. Good price for veteran presence in Charlotte.
Warsofsky? Who knows. Won in ECHL? That’s good. He was likely cheap, which is the Canes MO for coaches.
Good analysis as far as I’m concerned. Covered everything well.
News from the scouting department. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/07/early-notes-hurricanes-eriksson-contracts.html
Oh my I am working entirely too many hours for an old tired guy. So happy to read so many different perspectives from die hard canes fans like me, both young and old.
I find myself agreeing with most everyone on the points they are making.
Matt’s themes and conclusions are spot on. Within that framework, the only trade that bothers me was Nic Roy. As an Asheville resident it was much easier for me to attend Checkers games than Hurricanes games. Roy centered the shutdown line, usually playing against opponents top players, and hanging strong. Of all the traded / unsigned UFAs, he is the one that I think we will regret letting him get away.
The others we may also regret, they are good men, but the probability is lower even in aggregate. Roy has the chance to be special at the NHL level, IMHO.
I love the team that have, with the coaches we have, and their ability to improve. It is extremely unusual for the best opening day team to win a Stanley Cup. The season is an improvement race, with two phases:
1) Build a team for opening day that can put you in position for the playoffs
2) improve the team to one that can win the cup. Improvement has two dimensions: a) develop your players b) make deals for other good players.
It is “fools gold” to think a team can build the right mix to win the cup on opening day. That has not happened in the modern era.
So the question we should ask is: are we in good position to qualify for the playoffs, and then to advance in the playoffs?
In retrospect winning the Calder Cup was a lot of fun (I enjoyed attending the playoff games), but after we lost so many players, did it put the team in the best position to win the cup next year?
Are we in the best position to win the cup in the next 2 or 3 years?
If we have Justin Williams anything is possible, he is better at building players than anyone else in the business. Respectfully TJ – I love your insights – there is no one else who could of brought the players back to what RBA wanted to do. He repeatedly said “we didn’t change anything”, and I believe him, but what the players did on the ice was very different. They actually did what RBA wanted due to JW.
JW was the MVP without question, there was no second place.
Anyone who made it this far into my rant? I owe a beverage of choice!
One more thing. I love that Carolina / Charlotte is a great place for players and coaches to springboard into better positions.
Every player and coach on the cusp of a promotion would be smart to sign here.
The AHL is a developmental league….and as such it prepares players for the NHL, typically for the team of which it is an affiliate. Foegele, Wallmark, Maenalanen, McGinn, and Faulk were all products of our farm system. Slavin, Pesce, Aho, and Svechnikov were talented draft picks that needed little to know AHL development. We lost 25 year old Poturalski, 26 year old Patrick Brown, other older guys included Renouf, Sanguinetti, and McKegg. Gibbons is strictly a veteran presence who can play up to the NHL level in a pinch, but isn’t as talented as guys like Gauthier, Geekie, Luostarinen, Kuokkanen, or Mattheos. Bishop, Lorentz, and Carrick will be the veteran leadership. The addition of NCAA scorer, Jake Pritchard is a subtle, overlooked “get” for Charlotte. They are going to be good again this season.
For those of you concerned about missing out on Ferland, remember he was asking for significantly more dollars and more term. Then he literally disappeared after the All-Star break….and was a total no show in the playoffs, the time when most thought he would be one of our most valuable assets. His physicality will be missed, but others can and will step up.
In the end players are assets and we have used ours quite wisely. This teams “bench” is one of the deepest in the NHL. We have a very skilled team that keeps getting better. Right now I applaud the front office and GMBC for the great job they have done.