Only two games from the midway point of the 2017-18 season, timing is right to start doing assessments for the halfway point of the season.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe lists players who have exceeded my preseason expectations.
Brock McGinn
His scoring pace has slowed a bit, but he has still been impressive in 2017-18 relative to my preseason expectations. I had him pegged as a depth forward likely to slot at #12 or #13 and not do much offensively. Instead he has been what I would call the #9 forward for most of the 2017-18 season and more significantly has provided decent depth scoring. McGinn is on pace for 12 goals and 31 points which is solid considering that he averages only 13:15 of ice time and has received minimal power play time.
Noah Hanifin’s offense
Noah Hanifin’s game is still a work in progress defensively especially in terms of every game consistency. As I said to someone yesterday, Hanifin seems to be making progress in terms of how frequently he has a tough night defensively, but when he does, the volume of badness still seems similar to his rookie year. But in total, I would say that Hanifin is making gradual strides defensively.
But what has been very impressive and has far exceeded optimistic preseason hopes is the growth in his game offensively. The skating, puck carrying, Joni Pitkanen dynamic of Hanifin’s game has appeared more regularly and generally been positive and productive when it appears. Hanifin has always had the wheels to join the rush offensively from behind but only this year has he become more aggressive but still with good judgment such that he has become a great third or fourth attacker and often the shooter off the rush. His shot and ability to find and/or make shooting lanes has improved in 2017-18. And when you put it all together, Hanifin’s broad improvements have yielded results. He has been the team’s best defenseman offensively, and his pace for a big 14 goals and 41 points is a great contribution scoring-wise.
Trevor van Riemsdyk
When Trevor van Riemsdyk was acquired, my hope was that he would just be good enough in the #6 role to upgrade the third defense pairing that was a problem in 2016-17. He has met that target and exceeded it. Van Riemsdyk has had a solid season in his own right, but maybe more significantly he has played a vital role providing a stable situation for two young defensemen in Haydn Fleury and Noah Hanifin. Hanifin struggled through most of the 2016-17 season at least partly due to the instability of the third pairing that saw a revolving door in the spot next to him. Early in this season, van Riemsdyk made sure that rookie Haydn Fleury did not suffer a similar fate, and more recently he has provided a stable situation for Noah Hanifin who found his higher gear offensively mostly after sliding down into the bottom pairing and playing with van Riemsdyk.
Cam Ward
Entering the season, I was cautiously optimistic about Cam Ward’s ability to be productive in the backup role. On the one hand, less work had the potential to keep him rested and fresh. On the other hand, Ward had not been a backup for a long time, so he was clearly entering uncharted waters. Not only has Ward been adequate or better as a backup, but with Scott Darling struggling to get his feet under him with a new team and in a new role, the 2017-18 season might already be over for the Carolina Hurricanes if Ward similarly struggled in his new role. In a poll in the Monday Coffee Shop, he was voted the team’s most valuable player for the first 38 games of the season, and he will enter the second half of the season as the starter. On December 20, I wrote that Cam Ward was the player with the greatest ability to boost the team’s fortunes. I stand by 15 days later and nearing the start of the second half of the season.
Justin Williams’ leadership
His scoring pace is similar to 2016-17 with a decrease in goals. That is roughly what I would have expected from Williams in terms of scoring production. But though I did value the leadership aspect that Williams added, I actually think I underestimated it to some degree. I think his “losing is not okay” tone that he started with in his summer press conference and has pulled out multiple times already in the locker room is having more of an impact on the attitude and culture across the entire lineup than some might appreciate. I also think that his consistency going to the front of the net is gradually finding followers such that the Hurricanes are making modest strides in this regard.
Klas Dahlbeck
Entering the season, I viewed Dahlbeck as a necessary evil to avoid having to expose another roster defenseman to the expansion draft, and I feared that he might be a liability even as a rarely used #7 defenseman. He has proven me wrong thus far in 2017-18. Often with long layoffs between games, Dahlbeck has been steady and serviceable in a good way whenever he has played with very few exceptions. That is a positive.
Honorable mentions that I considered
Haydn Fleury: By no means has Fleury been perfect in his rookie season, but he has been pretty good. And the fact that he has already been elevated into the top 4 is impressive. I left him off the list because at a basic level I do think he is still learning as a rookie somewhat as expected.
Teuvo Teravainen: Teravainen is on pace for low 60s for points which is a little bit higher than I would have projected in early October. Further, he had a stretch where he was utterly dominant offensively. But I left him off the list simply because he is not that far ahead of pace and has been just as streaky as in the past with long stretches of just not being visible enough.
My tentative plan is to have a similar theme for the Thursday Coffee Shop later on Thursday, but feel free to also chime in here with comments on the players that I noted. I would also be curious to see if anyone else has different players who have exceeded expectations.
Go Canes!
Otherwise good but my 2 cents:
1. Turbo has exceeded expectations. In Finnish media and hockey forums it is a consensus. The rumor says last summer was the first time he trained really hard. Good move from TT’s trainer to put Turbo lift weights under supervision of an Olympic level weightlifter (even better: a woman –> harder for Turbo to be a crybaby). The aim was to find more balance between his upper body vs. lower body muscles and to add mobility to upper body. This shows in battles now that still aren’t elite but way better than before. The fear is away, mostly. Also, as the results matter, who’d (except ct) have predicted TT be leading the scoreboard (tied). I thought that place was Skinner’s.
2. Dahlbeck: 11 games in, some earlier ones on his off side that didn’t work, lately a few excellent games and a meltdown (STL was it?). Usable back up on his natural side.
So I would flip these two around, put TT on the list and give honorable to Dahlbeck.
Only McGinn has truly exceeded my expectations.
Of course, I was probably overly optimistic entering the season. I think by the end of the season, Aho may have exceeded. I say this because as I mentioned after the Washington game, he seems to be entering the next level. Like katrii, I expect that he has 80 point potential. Based on the last 4-5 games, Aho might be producing at that level for the remainder of the year. Of course, that would mean my pre-season prediction that TT leads the team in scoring would be close but not correct. I hope TT ends up with 63 points and is a good 8-10 behind Aho because that would mean the next 43 games would be successful.
TVR a little more consistently than I expected. Though I do recall watching a replay of one of the outdoor games from a previous season on NHL network and thinking he had the skill (and shot from the point) to be a top 4 D-man.
Aho is a player who always does his best and wants heavily to develop personally and as a team player but somewhere in his occiput he knows now it is the time to do extra (if it is even possible bc he is already rolling 99,9% given the genetics and environmental factors) and show off for his RFA deal that can be signed already in postseason. These things considered it can well be that he is the one who leads the team in points after the season.
And by this I ofc meant that development comes in steps: one can push it only to the limit available at given time.
This is very much off topic but because I am hyper about it I shout it aloud also here: there’s a chance that Carolina Hurricanes play in Finland next season! Elliotte Friedman’s 31 thought list yesterday stated, listed as number two: “As we try to piece together next year’s European schedule, add the possibility of Carolina versus Winnipeg in Finland. Sebastian Aho, Patrik Laine, Teuvo Teravainen. Makes sense. But no guarantees at this time.”
Needless to say I am floating in 7th heaven even at the thought 😀
I like Katrii’s remarks on Turbo – nice to have a Finnish “insider”! Teuvo has been a lot stronger on 50-50 fights for the puck.
I have been pleased with Hanifin’s offensive development – but I was expecting it, particularly after I first saw him in training camp or the preseason. He showed a booming shot and the confidence to take it – plus there was talk he had worked on both his game.
McGinn is playing as expected. His goal-scoring burst early in the season, which I view as an anomaly, still exaggerates his “scoring pace” by a large margin. He plays with grit and energy – my favorite callout line at the arena is “Hit someone, Brock!” – I got laughs at the WSH game with that line from Caps fans sitting around me, but that is really his primary contribution. His shooting percentage remains the same as last year (~9.5%) and he has a decent shot. But I would not say he has exceeded my expectations.
I am actually not sure anyone has exceeded my expectations so far in the season.
Thanks 😀 I might know some things about Turbo since I have been following him since C-junior level and I am a sucker of all (Finnish) news considering him; podcasts, his agent contributions, hockey forums etc. Sebastian Aho is a newer catch: I have been following him closely since only 2016 wjc win.
And I need to throw also this “insider”: The weightlifter lady said that in chin-ups she could easily beat Teuvo at the beginning of the summer but not anymore later. She also said that TT is very gifted physically and would pick up and learn instantly. The outcome of the summer was higher-than-expected strength (measured) levels.
I think I should mention Ryan. His point total is where I expected. However, in watching games more closely this year I have noticed that DR makes so many small plays that are solid. Another commenter mentioned before the season that Ryan is kind of a one level down version of Toews: good D-zone positioning, willing to get in front of the net, makes good passes in tight space, excellent at face-offs. There were many folks who wondered why GMRF re-signed him and then thought the salary was too high. I have said before, he may be one of the most valuable players based on production per minute of any player not on an ELC.