As the fortunes of the 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes rise, so to do the fortunes of a number of players who will be up for new contracts next summer.
The organization moved early to sign Teuvo Teravainen to a five-year contract at $5.4 million per year and Jordan Martinook to a two-year contract at $2 million per year.
But that still leaves nine players on the current roster who will need to be re-signed or set free this summer.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes an early look at the group.
Sebastian Aho
He will obviously be re-signed but increasingly the question is at what cost. Last summer, I suggested that the would (and should) act early to make a long-term commitment to Sebastian Aho. My best guess is that a fair contract would have been something in the $7-8 million range. Fast forward to today and Aho’s 90-point pace, and that number has most certainly risen. At this point I think a team-friendly deal would be $8-8.5 million per year. I think fair market value could now be $10 million. My wild guess is that Aho’s RFA status tamps down price a little, but that Aho’s next contract clocks in at $9-9.5 million.
Micheal Ferland
The team seemed close to trading Ferland at one point, but then the term self-rental popped up referring to Ferland suggesting that he would stay. I am on record as not liking a long-term deal for Ferland because the shortness of his track record and to some degree his injury risk. Since being bumped off of Aho’s line, Ferland’s production as slowed a bit and he has also been laboring with an upper body injury. Might that pull down his market value? I think it could but only modestly. Term is uncertain, but I still think a team that desperately wants to add a capable top 6 forward forward will pay $5 million or more for Ferland for a couple too many years. I think it takes a discount off of that for Ferland to remain in a Hurricanes uniform for the 2019-20 season.
Justin Williams
His deal will be an interesting one. Early in the season, I would have had Williams’ next contract as being more that of a depth player but with a captain premium added on. I would have figured that to be less than the $4.5 million that Williams is earning this year. Fast forward to today and his productive role on the team’s top scoring line and any age-related fall off in production looks to be in the future. I figure Williams signs for one or two years at a salary similar to or possibly slightly down from his current one. So something like $4 million seems about right.
Saku Maenalanen
Right now, I think Maenalanen is trying to play his way up into a one-way contract for the 2019-20, and I think there is a good chance that he has done so. He will not get term of a high salary, but I could see him getting a one or two year deal for something in the neighborhood of $1 million per year.
Brock McGinn
Though his goal scoring is down a bit, McGinn has generally had a solid season as a depth forward and has solidified his role at the NHL level. That should net him a modest raise likely on a two or three year deal. My best bet is that McGinn gets two years at $1.1 to $1.5 million per year.
Greg McKegg
As a player who has logged more AHL than NHL games in recent years, McKegg is trying to play his way into a one-way deal. Though I do not think it would be outlandish for McKegg to get a one-way deal, I doubt it happens. What I do think he gets is a very good two-way contract with a guaranteed minimum that factors in some NHL ice time.
Haydn Fleury
Coming off his entry-level deal, Fleury this year would have been hoping to earn a modest raise and a one-way deal. With the low volume of NHL ice time that Fleury has logged this season, I think he likely gets another two-way contract.
Curtis McElhinney
McElhinney has earned every bit of his modest $850,000 in helping the team improve in net. The tough question is figuring out what makes sense for both him and the team. At 35 years old, McElhinney is not an option for a long time #1 goalie. But based on what he did in 2018-19, might he be a capable part of the netminding solution short-term? I could see re-signing McElhinney to a two-year deal at a modest raise to something like $1.3 to $2.0 million. That gives McElinney a chance to continue on his current path but does so in a way that leaves room for Alex Nedeljkovic or even possibly adding goalie help later if necessary.
Petr Mrazek
He was ‘meh’ early in the year but has been surging of late. At only 27 years old and with prior starting experience, Mrazek is the more likely to take on a longer-term role with the Hurricanes. His current salary is only $1.5 million on a ‘prove it’ deal. Especially if he continues his latest trend, Mrazek would garner a raise for 2019-20. The burning question is just how much. Veteran 1A/1B types regularly earn $3 million-ish per year. I think something like that could be reasonable on a short two-year term though I could also see the amount landing a bit lower and/or the term pushing to three years. I would be thrilled to have Mrazek back for two years at $2.5 million per year. That at least fills one goalie slot and does so in a way that offers some future flexibility.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Of this list of nine impending free agents, which do you see not returning next season?
2) What do you expect for annual salary for Sebastian Aho’s next contract?
3) From the goalie group, which if either of Mrazek or McElhinney would you keep? What term would you be willing to offer one or both of them?
4) Do you agree with my estimated salaries for these players? Or are there players that you believe will price out differently?
Go Canes!
I think you’re spot on with all of these predictions.
I’ve started to think that McGinn might be expendable given the emergence of guys like Martinook, Maenalanen, Foegele, and McKegg in the bottom six. Not to say McGinn plays poorly, but that we have a lot of McGinns now and he might be expendable. For instance, I could see him in a deal with Faulk in the offseason (i.e. to Toronto).
It will be interesting to see what the organization decides to do with the goalies (and what each of them wants as free agents). Mrazek might be playing his way to a much bigger contract – one the Canes might not be willing to pay. Curtis has been so good all year, but there’s no way he could get more than 2 years at his age. I’d love to have them both back next year, but I have a feeling that Ned is playing next year in Raleigh. My bet is Mrazek finishes year strong and gets a 3 year $3.5 mil deal from Canes and Ned is the backup.
My only issue with Ned as a back up is it stunts his develepment, need to give him a legit shot at continuing his strong performance as a starter before relegating him to the back up role in Raleigh out of camp.
Yeah, it’s a competition. But I’d predict that he’ll be the backup. Perhaps even a continued 1A-1B set up.
Nedeljkovic is an RFA this summer. He will need a new contract, and won’t be waiver exempt next year. Running back and forth from Charlotte to Raleigh will be a risky option next season given the quality of his play in the AHL this season. It is likely time to cook or get off the stove for Ned. As for Mrazek and McElhinney my quess is their contracts will depend on “the committees” ability to maneuver through the crop of all goalie UFAs available at season’s end. Both have improved their value in the league and will be sought after by many teams.
I believe Nedeljkovic is waiver exempt for another year after this one, unless he plays 78 more games at the NHL level. It looks like he becomes waiver eligible in 2020-2021.
In order to discuss Fleury I started by looking at Charlotte. Looking at the Canes defense pipeline the cupboard looks surprisingly bare. Bean is the only dman contracted beyond this season. Didier, Sanquinetti, and Robertson are on expiring AHL only contracts and will be UFAs. McKeown, Carrick and Wesley (currently on loan to another AHL team) are RFAs. Carrick will have arbitration rights. Signing Fleury to a 2way contract makes really good sense. However, if he is not waiver exempt the 2way status will not have value unless you believe the entire league would pass on picking him up on waivers. Signing Fox is also more critical than I would have guessed before looking at the status of our depth chart for defense.
Your points on CLT defense are well-taken – the CLT blueline is primarily built on AHLers (from Carrick to Wesley), AHLers who aren’t quite and may never be NHLers (McKeown), and only two legitimate NHLers or HHL prospects (Bean and Fleury). That combo works well for team success there, but is a prep school for players to slot into the NHL. We may, indeed, have to draft some blueline talent to develop contrary to TD’s remarks earlier this season.
There is a fairly adequate pipeline on defense for the Canes. As the “next men up”, you’ve got Bean, Fleury, and McKeown. I disagree w/Raleightj that he’s an AHL/NHL tweener. I think he’s shown he’s ready. This season he’s been a bit hampered by injuries, but my feeling is that he’s in the Canes short-term future on a couple of fronts:
1. If Fox doesn’t sign, then he’s the only viable RHD in Charlotte. He’s probably as good as Van Riemsdyk and just needs NHL seasoning
2. He’s a high 2nd round draft pick who continues to show well. He easily would be an asset as part of a larger trade that would add value to such a trade.
All that said, next season almost certainly sees Bendan De Jong and Jesper Sellgren in Charlotte. Dan Renouf has comported himself well and could take over Carrick’s veteran LHD role for the Checkers. I see him getting another 1 year, 2-way deal with a larger AHL pay day. At first I was unimpressed with Sellgren, but reports from Sweden are very positive and he’s got poise and lots of offensive upside. He essentially would take over the Bean role should Jake matriculate to the NHL.
I’ve really liked McKeown when he had some games in Raleigh and thought that he was a steady player who made smart passes to move the puck out of our end.
1. Not returning: Ferland (probably the only one). Saku, Kegger, and even McGinn could be “expendable” but I am betting we re-sign each of them.
2. Aho will make 9+, either with the Canes or with another team. With the large number of high-end RFAs there is buzz about this year being the year of the offer sheet. And with the threat of a lockout there isn’t just salary but how that salary is structured. If O/M is reticent about paying up for Aho, you can almost guarantee an offer sheet will be out there to pay him and in a way that is sturctured to his advantage.
4. I think your numbers are all within reason. But I think McKegg gets a one-way. He is subject to waivers and I don’t he will necessarily clear them, so the idea of spending time in CLT seems a little bit iffy to me.
Oops! I forgot 3!
I think Mrazek gets a contract – all indicators are that he wants to be here and he is doing what we want our 1A/B goalie to do. He has earned his to a proper NHL contract. I am not sure about Mac – as nice as it might be to maintain the duo for another season I think he leaves (so my addendum to 1 is Mac). A lot of it has to do with what we decide to do with Ned. He has played his way to NHL ice, I think, and as noted above he will need to pass through waivers (something that will not happen).
On the contract front….there is no way Aho doesn’t get signed….likely to a long-term deal between $9 – $10 million. And he’d easily be worth it. If Ferland will take a 4 year term, I’d easily see the team overpaying a little ($5.25 million per year, for example). Otherwise, it is probably time to let him walk (I’d love to have him, but not for more than a 4 year term; might hold my nose on a 5 year deal).
If Ferland walks, then the value of McGinn grows. He’s got a little offense, but more importantly, he’s got some thump that the team will continue to need. I see him getting 2 years at around $1 million per year or perhaps, 3 years at something around $1.2 per year. I think Matt has the right of it on Maenalanen…a 1-way, 2 year deal at around $1 million per should get it done. I think, as much as I like the story, we let Kegger walk.
To me the goalie situation is almost a no-brainer. You either sign both Mrazek and McElhinney for a combined $5 million per year (Petr gets a 3 year deal and Mac gets a 1 year deal). Mrazek gets in the neighborhood of $2.75 million and Mac get’s $2.25 million. Ned’s got another year of waiver eligibility, so he can come up and down as needed given that Mac is almost assuredly going to miss a few games due to injury. Also, you pay Ned bigger AHL money to keep him happy. Then you’ve got 2 years to transition from Mrazek to Ned (if it all works out).
Forgot, re: goaltenders – if Mac doesn’t want a 1 year deal, then you roll with Peter and Neds next season.
I think Ned will be the back up next year. that is the next step for him and he has earned that role.
Mrazek is still in the prove it stage as far as being a No 1 goalie. OTOH, there aren’t many options out there – Varlamov, Elliott, Lehner?
Offer sheets have not been used by teams, would you trade 4 No 1 picks for Aho? Thats for an offer over 10 mil. I wouldn’t so I think the canes will match any offer other than one that is greater than McDavid.
No, but I think would consider 2 firsts, and a second and a third for an offer sheet up to $10.14M
1. Ferland may have to drop his asking price if he wants to extend his stay with Carolina. I’m sure Dundon understands the cost-to-performance factor. Bottom line, he misses too many games to be worth $4 mil.
2. Just returned from a very long road trip (vaca and visiting family). First day only made it 90 mins south to Boston so my wife and I could see the throwback jerseys, before heading to Nashville and the Preds game. Common theme from both games, even from 3rd level Aho was the fastest and most dynamic player on both teams. He is THAT good.
3. I’ve gone back and forth on the goalies and each time I commit to a thought the other goalie gets hot. But IMO, bringing back the same tandem next year would be a short-term decision as neither goalie strikes me as a long-term solution. This is why I think Ned makes the team because he is being groomed as the heir. So it really depends on what management thinks about goalies in general, are they short or long term investments? I also get the sense Mrazek may seek more $ and term than what Canes have planned, therefore my gut says we keep Mac as a mentor for Ned.
4. I can see Aho getting north of $10 mil.
I think unless Ferland asks for 4m or less on a max 3 year deal that the canes should not bite. Gauthier is a guy that has a lot of the attributes and deserves his hot. FErland’s production has significantly declined when he is moved to another line and his propensity to get into physical altercations has kept him out of about a quarter of the games (assuming he’ll be out for a while yet). Yes, we need tough guys, but we need tough guys that are durable and are paid for the role they play.
I think it’s time to bet on Ned and keep one of the other two goalies, also it depends in part on what the team is going to do with Darling. I think a buy out is the only solution, I don’t see a darling recovery in Carolina, though I’d love to see that story.
I would expect a Faulk + Mcginn package for someone like Nylander or the like in the offseason.
1) I think Ferland is the only one who doesn’t return. Svechnikov will be on the second line next year. Necas will be RW on the third, which means Martinook is LW on third. There really is no room for another $5M winger.
2) 8.75M. I hope it is for 8 years. My concern is Matthews’ contract sets a precedent. Also, TT only signed for 5.
3) I would keep both. Mrazek 3yrs/3M per. McElhinney 2yrs/1.5M per. If Ned is ready for 30+ games, I would think McElhinney could be traded. Though I am not opposed to keeping all three for the entire season.
4) I think most are close. Williams is the interesting case. He likely wants to play 2 more years to try and be part of one more deep playoff run. I think he might take something like 2 years/$6 million total with $4M in salary the first year and $2M the second.
One final point. I would be ok keeping the entire D-core. The need for a top 6 forward is not what it was earlier this season. Nino/Aho/Williams and Svechnikov/Staal/TT are solid top lines. The D has one too many high-salaried/high-results defenders, but it has worked well this year. Faulk/Pesce have taken many of the top defensive assignments which has allowed Hamilton to become more of a 4th forward against slightly lesser opponents. Moving Faulk likely changes that–I’m not sure the return would justify the gamble. Re-signing Faulk in 2020 would be a risky proposition, but I think another year of having a solid d-corp is worth it.
Good point.
I think Faulk would fetch almost as good a trade value at the deadline next year as he would over the summer, (if he doesn’t agree to resign in Carolina).