Today’s Daily Cup of Joe collects a few items not yet covered in other posts.
What to do with Jordan Staal when he returns?
With the Hurricanes playing well and winning seven out of their last eight games, Jordan Staal suddenly is not being missed. If Staal returns while the Hurricanes are still red hot, is it possible that he actually slides into the healthy scratch slot, so the team does not lose its rhythm? While I do think that is possible and generally like ‘if it ain’t broke (sic), don’t fix it’, I still think Staal is an upgrade and would go back into the lineup immediately. Especially with ice time pretty balanced right now except for the top line, I think simplest would be to swap Staal for Rask, and at least initially the modest ice time would be fine too.
Understanding Micheal Ferland as a complementary third for Aho’s line
Early in the season, Aho’s line was clicking with Ferland on the left side and leading the team in goal scoring. A layoff due to injury and an odd delay by Brind’Amour in returning Ferland to Aho’s line broke the run, but a recent return of Ferland to that line has seen a massive scoring surge. At a basic level, Ferland is a power forward who can put the puck in the net. That fits reasonably well on any line. But I think a deeper dive on Ferland’s skill set yields a couple other subtle but significant parts of his skill set.
First and foremost, I think key to Ferland meshing well with Aho and Teravainen is the fact that Ferland is the type of player whose game does not require him to have the puck. In fact, he is most product playing without the puck and just receiving to finish. This skill set is somewhat unique among scoring forwards. Many are most productive making plays with the puck on their stick. This is certainly true for Aho and is also largely true for Teravainen. So adding a third forward who is at his best playing with the puck on his stick could be a bit of a mismatch.
Second is that Ferland rates highly for receive/finish ability. Yes, Ferland is a power forward who can go to the net and create havoc and/or score goals from the crease area. But equally significantly and what separates him from McGinn and other players who can bring a physical forechecking element, Ferland has proven to have the sniper type skills to convert shooting opportunities to goals.
Has Andrei Svechnikov hit the rookie wall?
Ironically, Svechnikov’s fortunes have been a bit of a reverse of the team in total lately. In December, he had a short burst of scoring and a period where he seemed on the brink of breaking out in the second half of the season. But the scoring surge never really materialized, and Svechnikov is off to a slow start in January. In seven games, he has yet to pick up a goal or an assist, and maybe more significantly, what has been most noticeable about his game has been his propensity to pick up poor decision stick infraction type penalties. Right now, Svechnikov has more penalty minutes (12), than shots on goal (11) for January. One has to wonder if perhaps he has hit the proverbial wall in his first season in the NHL as an 18-year old.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What would you do with Jordan Staal when he returns if the Hurricanes are still red hot?
2) What do you see as Micheal Ferland’s strengths that make him such a good fit for Aho/Teravainen?
3) Have you noticed Andrei Svechnikov being quiet in a bad way of late except when he shows he is in the game by picking up a penalty?
4) Who has other topics that have been on their mind that are worth debate?
Go Canes!
What to do with Jordan Staal? That is a decision for wiser minds than mine to ponder. However, I like the suggestion to having him replace Rask. We do miss Jordan’s prowess in the faceoff circle.
I am pleasantly surprised to read all of the praise for Ferland’s importance to the team. We haven’t seen a forward like him since Eric Cole. While I was dismayed by comments saying that we should try to keep him but if we have to trade him, no big deal. He won’t be difficult to replace.
He will be difficult to replace. Did you see him fight Watson? He sought out Nashville’s toughest guy, took off his helmet (honorable thing to do), and then cleaned his clock. This let Watson as well as all the other Preds know to lay off the tiny Finns. Aho got a hat trick? Coincidence? I think not.
He is fast enough to keep up with the Finns and can score.
He can score from in close. He can also beat a keeper with a wrist shot from a distance.
He can charge the net or set up camp in front of the net.
He is a heavy hitter.
He is a feared fighter.
He is a glue guy on and off the ice.
All of this in one player? What a bargain at any price!
Svech is still learning. Early in the season, he was taking too many stick penalties. Then, he stopped. When he stopped taking so many cheap penalties, he started scoring. Now he’s back with the cheap penalties again.
Roddy summed it up very well. He said that when Svech’s feet are moving, he is fine. When he stands around, he needs to use his stick. But when he has the puck, all he wants to do is score. Roddy likes that about him, he says. Part of the resurgence of cheap penalties is the fact that the refs know him as a guy who is prone to cheap stick penalties. They are watching him and do not give him the benefit of the doubt.
Roddy’s solution? Give the kid the puck as often as we can. On ice mentoring to remind him to keep moving. I remember my coach and the team captain yelling at me to “stop watching the game”! “Get IN it!” Eventually, he will get it. He is young. But he will get it.
1). If Staal came back today, conditioning stint then swap out Rask to start. Bishop may return soon too.
In fact, the evolution of the active roster since pre-season is remarkable. Darling and Necas in CLT, Zykov and PDG gone off waivers, Staal and Fleury injured. That’s 6 opening day active roster players, plus Bishop injured. That is 1/3 of a team not on the current active roster, with no trades. I don’t recall seeing anything quit like that.
Kudos to the canes O/M and players. Add in the 3 big questions in the pre-season: 1C, goalie, and too many rookies… the mid-season grade is A. Note the mid-season grade is like winning the Corsi battle, not so meaningful. Still an impressive evolution though. Wow! The theee biggest concerns have been managed.
2) Spot on analysis with Ferland. He is a perfect complement to two undersized puck handlers.
3) Svechnikov has struggled a bit since being separated from his high chemistry linemates, Wallmark and Martinook. He’s played with Bishop, Rask, and McKegg and needs to settle back in.
4) I haven’t been to the arena in awhile. Do the fans & house DJ do the Aho song / chant that the players were doing in the locker room after the hat trick? Note to self: get to a game soon!
Swapping out Rask for Staal would be a huge upgrade and allow RBA to get even better matchups during games. I think the bigger question is whether RBA puts Staal on PP and PK, which have both been on fire this month. I think Staal will get time on the PK, but perhaps less the workhorse that he was before. I really, really hope that RBA uses Staal sparingly or virtually never on the PP. It’s best for the team and I think it means a more rested Staal for 5v5 play.
Svech will be ok – I still think he’s generating some high danger chances. I wouldn’t mind seeing him with Martinook for a while, since they had real chemistry.
When Jordan comes back, and Bishop, I’d like to see Rask as the healthy scratch, Staal in his spot, and the paper exchange of sending McKegg down and calling him up, possibly at the expense of sending Bishop down.
Svechnikov is struggling and like Darth and Asheville have said, the separation from Wallmark and Martinook took effect. This was the one down side of Staal being out. Worst case is after the all star break things can get back to normal with him.
Staal: conditioning stint (if needed) then replace Rask. McKegg and Wallmark have been too good to sit down. (BTW, I think I keep McKegg and not Bishop.) The real issue is usage. The PP is finally clicking so I wouldn’t touch that; but I would insert Staal into the PK to spread the time over more players (but I would definitely keep Aho/TT on the PK). As for the lines, If Staal replaces Rask and centers Foegele and Maenalanen, it kind of reminds me of the Nesty-Staal-Nordy line that was very successful: a hard-working line that will score ugly goals. I think I would start there and see what happens.
Ferland: I’ve come full circle here but have obviously been influenced by his recent fine play – a big no-no. I’m starting to think the move is to get a deal done with Ferland even if I hold my nose on term. Period, full stop. Players like him don’t grow on trees and there are few of them in the league.
My evolving thinking goes something like this: he likes it here and he’s been successful here. If he can stay productive for 1-2 years, we have that time to find/groom his replacement. During that time, he’s a very productive asset that has big and growing trade value that we can capture if/when a cheaper/more productive player can replace him. So, is the risk of a major falloff in play or injury over the first 1-2 years greater than the benefit of his contributions in the lineup (scoring, toughness, etc.) at a market price? I’m not scared of taking that risk anymore, especially given how hard it is to recruit UFA’s to this market should he leave a hole in the lineup. This is a much larger discussion point for another post.
Svetch: he’s a rookie. Yes, he’s been sloppy with his stick but he’s still been very dangerous without the results. I’m not worried about him at all.
1) I think Staal will improve the team, maybe even having him center Svechnikov and Williams. The key will be for RBA to not play him 21 minutes per night. One of the things that has occurred during the successful turnaround is that all the lines are being used in all situations. The team no longer needs to over-rely on Staal. Also, if I recall correctly, McKegg was an emergency call-up. He will need to return to Charlotte once one of Staal or Bishop is in the lineup. Then he will need to clear waivers, which might be difficult.
2) I hate to be the outlier, but Zykov was also a good complement for Aho and Teravainen. Seriously, those two are becoming true first line players. Ferland is good with them, but it is overstating the case to say he makes them better. Remember Ferland played with Gaudreau and Monahan last season and look how much they miss him playing with another forward with a “muffin shot.” Ryan Stimson has done some great work indicating that having a “shooter” with two playmakers increases production. However, having three playmakers (his definition is specific to types of plays, not the generic way most of us use the term) is significantly more productive. This seems to be well supported by how much better Lindholm has made Gaudreau and Monahan. The analysis is pretty clear that playmakers (again in the specific sense) make shooters better. I think this is definitely the case with Ferland/Aho/Teravainen. The two Finns are benefitting the power player. As much as the big hits and close-in goals excite fans, it is really Aho’s stick handling and Teravainen’s passing that propel that line. I like Ferland–he is one of the most deserving players of a big contract. He is the best player on the current roster to allow Aho and, to a lesser extent, Teravainen thrive. Objectively, however I realize that his play is mostly due to the Canes having an excellent 1C for the first time in years.
3)Actually Svechnikov has been making some of the best passes on the team the past few games. He isn’t on the stat sheet, but that is not the only measure for success. Apropos the points above, Svechnikov just might be another all-around offensive threat. The goals will come again this season.
4) The “streak” has had one really important ingredient. The D has been on the score sheet much more than the first 38 games. Whether goals or assists, all six defensemen have been making offensive contributions. I think the three main ingredients have been Aho’s reaching a new level, Williams retiring to a level from 5 year ago, and the D scoring.
I hope TD will get down and dirty resigning his top line. It scares me a bit that our top line comprises 3 free agents.
I´d try to sign all 3.
We can go back and forth on FErland, but the team is clearly a lot better of with him than without him.
Then sign Martinook.
I think if the team must shed Staal’s contract to make it possible they should look at that.
Then resigning the goalie duo. Buying Darling out must hurt TD’s wallet, but I think it must be done.
I think Staal could see a resurgence if given no PP and fewer minutes, maybe on the big and nasty line, replacing Rask.
Rask needs to improve or sit, the team deemed him recovered enough to return from injury but he needs to show he should be on the roster, he’s not done very well so far.
I’d find a way to keep the Keg and send Bishop down again, it’s good to know we have a reliable bottom 6 center right down I-85.
WE might want to sit Svech for a game, just to light a bit of fire under him, but only if it does not mess with his confidence. The rookies go through this, there was a similar discussion around Brady recently, his production has fallen off badly. All rookies go through this, the physical toll of an NHL season is considerable.
1. The first thing that happens when Staal returns is that a decision has to be made on McKegg. Does he stay and become subject to waivers in the future?, or does he go back to CLT without having to pass through waivers. And that decision is really based on McKegg vs. Rask (and/or Bishop??).
I think Staal’s return has to be handled carefully. Williams is scoring goals now that he is not on Staal’s line – is that offensive production at risk by reuniting the two?, or can Staal leverage that for his own scoring?
There really needs to be a re-think of Staal’s role.
2. I have been onboard with Ferland since the trade – he has provided just the type of phyiscality, net front play, and scoring that complements Aho/Turbo. Your points, Matt, are valid. But his performance does fall off when he is not paired with high-end players.
Neither McGinn or Martinook, both of who have somewhat similar games to Ferland, have been able to either individually perform well on that line or, more so, elevate Aho/Turbo’s game.
But Ferland wants to be a free agent – and why wouldn’t he? He will a highly sought after player and he should enjoy being courted by other teams and ultimately signing his one big payday contract.
So enjoy him while we have him. If we are sellers at the deadline he will be gone in late February. If we are buyers I will only hope that we keep him – he could easily be the difference maker in being a playoff team. It would be a head-scratcher, but very revealing, if we trade Ferland when we are buyers.
3. After watching Dahlin in the Buffalo – who is the real deal – and Kotkaniemi last night Svech comes across looking very unpolished and very much like a rookie trying to figure things out. His stick penalties are well-known – but he doesn’t shoot enough (he turned out a snipe on a rush in the Buffalo game to make an ineffective pass). I do like that he plays a physical game but his offensive game is really lacking. It may be because he keeps getting moved around, but I think it is because we don’t really have a center to complements him and his skill set.
Staal – The emergence of Wallmark, and to some degree Bishop/McKegg has made the absence of Staal a non-factor. Likely heading to the 4th line for starters.
Ferland – As much as he’s impressed, I’m trying to keep objective. If lines are built with solid tandems, Ferland is the 3rd wheel to the 1st line and is more replaceable than Aho/Turbo. He does not generate much on the other lines to-date, so I wouldn’t suggest he makes his line mates better (though standing up for them counts). He has proven to be an awesome team player and 3rd piece to a very good line. Is that piece important? Yes. Is it worth $6-7 mil long term? No. So if Ferland over values himself north of $5 mil, for the role he has proven, the Canes will likely parlay him into another asset. Over the next few weeks we may see a few of these deals. We’ve seen it in team history where player A is dealt for player B, then B dealt for player C. My point is if we can add value (additional scoring threat) to the top two lines via Ferland, then management may jump.
Svech – I would not be too harsh on his play or consistency just yet. We’ve seen flashes of brilliance and domination, and other flashes of an 18 year old rookie. This is not Semin 2.0, and we should expect inconsistencies (all rookies have them, and if they haven’t, they probably will).
The reason I keep mentioning Staal as replaceable is his salary.
If we could translate the remainder of Staal’s contract into salary for Ferland, basically break even, plus get either a prospect or a pick, wouldn’t that be something the team should consider?
I agree Ferland has not done so fantastic on other lines, but neither McGinn nor Martinook looked like good complementary players on the top line, plus Ferland was recovering from injury, so I think there is a lot of value in keeping him on that line.
I see the best version of Gauthier as a Ferland replacement on the top line, maybe as early as next season. In fact, I think he should get a call up soon and a place on that line to see if he might fit there (it would also encourage him to keep working on his game like he has been).
The Oilers are reportedly desperately looking for forward help and love Ferland, so if the team intends to trade him I suspect we may see a deal happen sooner rather than later.
I’d personally vote to keep Ferland for up to 6 mill for 3 or 4 years. You don’t win the cup with minimum salary roster, and as much as I think over payment is an issue in the NHL as a whole, the Canes are going to have to splurge some money on players that are needed to take the team to the next level. Ferland isn’t aho or TT, but I think he is in a close second category of such players.
The top line, Ferland, Martinook, Svech, Walmark, the Keg, Saku (maybe) are the keepers in my opinion.
It would be good to have JW resign, but I don’t know if he is interested.