Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a look at the fairly significant transformation of the Hurricanes’ AHL roster over the past couple years.
Transformation of the Hurricanes AHL roster
For all teams, the primary purpose of the AHL is to develop players to improve the NHL team. As such, the most attention is given to young, up and coming prospects with the potential to be difference makers at the NHL level. But AHL rosters also house two other types of players. First are prospects with lower ceilings who maybe have lower ceilings but still the potential to contribute at the NHL level. Second are AHL veterans who help the AHL team win and set a tone for professionalism but are unlikely to factor in at the AHL level. Historically most teams use a mix of young prospects and veteran leaders at the AHL level. At a contract level, most young prospects are on standard contracts that pay $70,000 to $80,000 at the AHL level and about the same in bonuses on the three years of an entry-level contract. The price for AHL veterans can vary. Especially for good ones who have NHL experience and have established themselves as leaders, they can earn upwards of $200,000 either directly in their AHL contract or with minimum guarantees that assume (and pay for) a certain amount of NHL time.
A couple years ago, the Carolina Hurricanes had a fairly even split of prospects and veterans, as the team was refilling a depleted prospect pool. Fast forward to today and the organization has undergone a significant transformation. Just this summer, the Hurricanes shed AHL veterans and team leaders Patrick Brown, Andrew Poturalski, Dennis Robertson and Dan Renouf. The only returning player from the 2018-19 roster who I would classify as an AHL veteran is Trevor Carrick. The Hurricanes do have a few somewhat older players, but I think all of the others would still be considered NHL prospects. If he falls to the AHL level, Saku Maenalanen would qualify as an AHL veteran as would Brian Gibbons and Clark Bishop who currently show on the NHL roster. The blue line does have newcomer Alex Lintuniemi to go with Trevor Carrick and also Roland McKeown who is still a prospect but also 23 years old. The goalie group does include newly-added Anton Forsberg who is an experienced AHLer with NHL experience. In total, I count 14 out of 20 likely AHLers as true prospects. In addition, at least of the players signed so far (Carrick, Forsberg, Bishop, McKeown and Maenalanen are yet to be signed) only Brian Gibbons has a premium AHL contract that guarantees him $225,000. All of the other players have an AHL salary in the low sub $100,000 range. As noted above, two players who would have required a premium AHL contract (Brown and Poturalski) departed.
What is going on?
Below is my speculation on what is going on with the Hurricanes at the AHL level. To be clear, this is my interpretation and not sourced from team commentary on the subject. (The team likely would not directly answer questions on much of this since it has to do with player development and organizational strategy.)
The prospect pool is becoming deeper
Credit to Ron Francis who initially started stockpiling extra prospects and draft picks and also the current management group that has followed suit, the Hurricanes simply have more true prospects in the system. With many playing in Europe, NCAA and Canadian juniors still, the matriculation to the AHL level will be gradual. But we are seeing the beginning of larger groups of prospects moving to the AHL level. So over time simple math suggests that the Hurricanes will have more prospects at the AHL level. That is pretty straight forward.
Cost-cutting below the 20-man NHL lineup
But I think there is likely also an element of cost cutting for players below the 20-man NHL lineup. Though the ‘Dundon is cheap’ narrative seems to be dying only very slowly despite the fact that the Hurricanes paid $3.8 million for a draft pick this summer and are pushing up against the salary cap, I actually think there could be an element of cost cutting below the 20-player NHL lineup. I see that manifesting itself in two ways. First, the Hurricanes quite regularly (even during the stretch run) went without healthy scratches. (If anyone knows a non-labor intensive way to find/calculate ‘average healthy scratches per game’ for NHL teams, let me know.) The cost to have a 21st player in the press box is roughly $9,000 per game. At a theoretical maximum, a team could save about $1.4 million in salary (two players on minimum or close salaries) by carrying only 20 players with no extras as compared to a more normal 22 that includes an extra forward and defenseman. The actual savings would be less because there would be times when an extra player was required because someone was actually injured, but back of the envelope math would suggest that a team could save $400,000 to $1 million by managing this tightly and taking some minor risks not having extras on the roster.
More significantly, by icing more true prospects at the AHL level instead of AHL veterans on premium contracts, the team could maybe save a similar amount. (Again, if someone has a way to total up the AHL salaries of players on the opening day AHL roster, let me know.) My rough math suggests that pending the remaining contracts that the Hurricanes will have fewer AHL premium contracts for the 2019-20 season.
Netting it out
At a basic level, the Hurricanes are placing an emphasis on adding both quantity and quality to the prospect pool. The team did do some pruning/cashing in when it traded away Aleksi Saarela and Nicolas Roy this summer, but the hefty volume of 12 draft picks this summer more than back filled the losses. The trade to acquire Patrick Marleau and then immediately spend $3.8 million buying him out was the most striking piece of evidence for the emphasis on building the prospect pool. The Hurricanes basically paid a sizable chunk of cash to buy what would project to be a mid to late first round pick. Couple that with trading down twice to add picks and boost quantity, and it is not hard to see the team’s investment in building from within.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What, if anything, do you make of my theory that the team is making a concerted effort to cut some costs below the 20-player NHL lineup in terms of AHL premium players but at the same time going all in on a commitment to building from within through the prospect pool?
2) What are your broader thoughts on the Hurricanes current prospect pool and approach to developing these players?
Go Canes!
Here is an article on a related topic, number of contracts permitted NHL teams (50). While not directly on topic, it does relate. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/07/tampa-bay-dallas-among-teams-facing-contract-limit-crunch.html
Ran acrossed this analysis of Canes attendance. https://hfboards.mandatory.com/articles/hurricanes-attendance-rebound-the-fundamentals-are-looking-better.479/
The big drop in attendance in 2014/15 coincided with the arrival of Don Waddell as team president and it was not a surprise. In order to enhance the value of season tickets he eliminated the complementary tickets that staff were given to distribute as well as steeply discounted seats (I used to get lower bowl seats for 2/3 off for a group I run). There were literally thousands of free seats given away every game. My sources of free seats dried up, the discounts were never as steep, and there were a number of articles published about it back then.
Don Waddell’s hiring was concurrent with Ron Francis’ promotion to GM. Both put in place to fill Jim Rutherford’s shoes. While your point is valid, the sharp drop in attendance began the previous season 2013-14 and continued the 2 following seasons. The “free ticket” promotions were putting make up on a pig, fooling no one. The number that actually matters is the total amount raised by ticket sales, not total ticket sales. Unfortunately, that number is never published (to my knowledge). The other number we never see, that could be useful to understand ticket sale policy is NHL profit sharing, numbers which are not public either.
I have to think there is an element of cost-cutting in carrying 20 players on the NHL roster and that makes good business sense. I do think we have let our AHL prospects “graduate” (Brown, Potsy) but it will be a long time before we see those most of those 12 picks actually show up in CLT. So we back-filled way back in depth. The good thing is we have some excellent players in CLT who will take on more important roles with Brown, Potsy, Saarela, and Roy gone.
I don’t view either Roy or Saarela as cost-pruning. Saarela was the sweetener we had to pay to get CHI to take the CdH contract. And picking up Roy for Haula was Vegas’ cost cutting. But both still had one more year on their contracts which I don’t think had guarantees in either case.
Part of the pipeline that fills an AHL roster are the draft picks from previous years that logically continued their development in juniors, college or on the international stage, too young to continue development in the AHL. Here is a list of Canes picks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Carolina_Hurricanes_draft_picks. Some of these unsigned players should logically be ready to move into the NHL. Some names stand out. Luke Martin is a rising senior at Michigan, drafted in the 2nd round in 2017. the other 2017 2nd rounder Eetu Luostarinen while signed, remains in Finland. Jack Drury was signed in the 2nd round (following Martin Necas). He is beginning his sophomore year at Harvard. It should be time for the draft class of 2017 to begin appearing in Charlotte.
I must say here that I began participating on this site thinking I knew a lot about hockey; NHL hockey in particular. But reading posts by others on this site as well as Matt’s articles, has educated me in ways I couldn’t have imagined.
Thanks to all of you. Thanks especially to Surgalt for all of his links to very pithy articles.
I will continue learning from all of you.
You are welcome. But likely a good sign I spend too much time thinking about Canes hockey. Those articles are found mostly when I try to find facts to support my opinions. (Which are often proven mistaken and abandoned before anyone else has to correct my foolishness.) Matt is the most insightful Canes reporter not on the teams payroll. He draws out quality comments from all of us. That makes him and this site so worth a daily visit.
If the Canes truly paid 6 million to acquire Tor’s late first round pick and then let 4 or 5 of the prospects they have developed to near NHL quality walk, that is just a dumb move.
A late first round pick is far from surefire NHL player, and if the Marleau buyout is the reasons some of these players walked, that’s just not smart.
I’m convinced the Canes paid a lot less for that pick, and I definitely hope it did not factor into any subsequent decisions regarding AHL players, in which case it could be a smart move, depending on how much was actually paid.
It could still come back to bite us if the capspace that was allocated to Marleau’s contract is affecting our ability to re-sign JW or any other player.
Either way, TD is investing in the team and that’s totally awesome.
It’s possible that both Forsling and Forsberg will walk then, which means the Canes traded CDH for nothing (except cutting salary), I hope that’s not the case, but if it is, well, it is.
Maybe these two players could be packaged to get another prospect or player the team wants (provided they can fit the player under the cap).
I think signing JW as 5 mill is a bit steep, he signed for 4 mill over the last 2 years. If he is willing to sign for 3.5 or 4 I think it is a good resolution for him and the team. Maybe he can be guaranteed a coaching role after this season ends to ensure his influence continues to benefit this team, his experience and leadership abilities are extraordinary and will far outlast his physical ability to play the NHL game.
The acquisition of Marleau and a 7th round pick “only” cost the Canes a 6th round pick. There were other costs to the Canes incurred by the transaction. When the Canes bought out Marleau they agreed to pay him $833,000 each of the next 2 years. They also had to pay a $3million signing bonus due the player. Actual dollars spent were $4.6million. None of this actually effected anything other than the owners income. Due to Marleau’s age there was no cap relief from the buyout. The Canes incurred a one year cap hit of $6.25million. This is a paper transaction, requiring no cash. The Canes have cap hits from Semin and Marleau this coming season that total almost $8.3million. These are dollars not available to spent on actual salaries.
The “4 or 5 near NHL quality players” that were not resigned were UFAs able to sign wherever they choose. Their not being here was not just the decision to let them go. Each went where they felt they had the best chance to improve their lot in the NHL. In a situation we Canes fans have little experience with, our depth made this a less likely successful path, no more no less. Effectively “the committee” decision to sign Haula and Dzingel made many of those UFAs unneeded.
My point was that 6 mil of cap space was tied up in the Marleau deal and therefore not available to sign other players, including the Checker UFAs
If it played a part in that decision that was a bad move, but if it was entirely relevant (which I suspect it was) that’s ok, I still disagree with some of those decisions as a fan, but that’s just the fun of being a fan, to gratuotously disagree with decisions you don’t have to make.
Good that we may retain the CDH hall after all, I still want to see an NHL roster player return for having traded Eric Staal, y’all.
Forsling is signed to a 2 way contract and will be a RFA in 2020-21 https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/1150951004080345088
Forsberg has received a qualifying offer and has filed for arbitration. His hearing is August 4th. Pundits predict this outcome as a 2way deal due to his achievements in the NHL thus far in his career. It will be about 2 weeks before the arbiter decides should the case go all the way through the process.
I thought about promising JW to have his number retired if he comes back. I would retire his number anyways.
Maybe Erick Cole also, any others?
Josef Vasicek, the Czech Condor, would be my sentimental choice. Drafted by the Canes in 1998 and played here for 8 seasons. (In 2 different stints, classic Jim Rutherford move.) He died in a plane crash in Russia playing for Lokomotiv of the KHL.
The loss of Poturalski, Brown, et al wasn’t about money. It was about “no room at the Inn”. Poturalski wasn’t going to crack the Canes roster. McGinn, Foegele, Martinook, and Wallmark all are ahead of Brown on the depth chart….likely Maenalanen too. Saarela apparently wasn’t in Roddy’s plans either. Roy had a lot of talent but was slower than Wallmark on his skates. For the record, I hated losing both of those guys, but I was also high on Valentin Zykov and we see how that’s played out.
The Canes have 32 skaters (not counting Bean) and 6 goaltenders (not counting Ned) in their system (AHL, Canadian Juniors, Europe, and NCAA). There remains a ton of very good talent…they are, however, a little thin at the highest levels of talent (Suzuki and perhaps Puistola could be described as such). That’s why the 2 first round picks next season are so valuable as that draft class is supposedly quite good and deep.
Finally, the Canes have the fewest amount of contracts signed, only using 37 of the 50 allowed. I expect we’ll see a couple more additions plus the 4 other remaining RFAs yet to be signed. The team historically plays with something between 45 and 50 contracts, rarely maxing out. But with such a rich pipeline, this could be “playing the long game” reserving contracts for next year’s graduating crop of players.