Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is part 2 of 2 looking at the Hurricanes depth that lies on the dividing line between the NHL and AHL. Part 1 made an attempt to categorize the 23 Carolina Hurricanes players who fit roughly in this group. If you missed that article, you can find it HERE.
In a simple world, the decision on which players win the last few NHL roster spots would be fair tryout. But the reality is that it does not work that way. First, NHL teams has some incentive to allocate NHL ice time with the aim of developing players, especially those with the potential to be difference-makers. In addition, multiple ‘NHL hockey rules’ can have a significant impact on who stays at the NHL level. One of the challenges of having a good system and successfully developing players is that eventually a team cannot use all of them at the NHL level and because of the NHL rules can be subject to losing some of those players for nothing in those situations.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks at some of those complexities that are coming into to play with the Hurricanes increasing depth that does not all fit on the NHL roster.
Quick overview of key NHL rules
One-way versus two-way contracts
Two-way simply means that a player has a different salary at the AHL versus NHL level. All contracts for prospects that have yet to reach the NHL level are two-way. For example, a player might earn $800,000 at the NHL level and $70,000 at the AHL level. Established NHL players have one-way contracts such that they get paid their full NHL salary even if sent to the AHL. Important to note is that whether a player has a one-way or two-way contract has no impact on whether he can be sent to the AHL. It just means that if he is sent to the AHL, he will still be paid his NHL salary.
Impact: The impact is that a team can save some money by sending down to the AHL players on two-way contracts versus one-way contracts, so a team has financial incentive to keep players on one-way contracts at the NHL level over players on two-way contracts.
Example: Let’s say a team has one roster spot left and must decide between a player with a one-way, $700,000 contract or a player with with two-way contract with an NHL salary of $700,000 and an AHL salary of $70,000. If the team, sends down the player on the two-way contract, it will save $630,000 (over the course of a full season) by paying the $70,000 AHL salary instead of the $700,000 salary.
Waivers
Waivers in the NHL is a requirement that certain players must ‘clear waivers’ before being sent to the AHL. What that means is that any of the other 30 teams in the NHL can claim a player who must clear waivers. That team must be willing to keep that player at the NHL level. If the acquiring team tries to send that player to the AHL later, he must again go on waivers. There is no compensation for players claimed off of waivers. The upshot is that a team runs the risk of losing certain players in trying to send them to the AHL. But players are waiver-exempt which means they do not need to clear waivers up until a certain level of experience/games played. So in general, younger prospects can be sent to the AHL without clearing waivers, but older players with more experience must clear waivers to make it to the AHL.
Impact: For players with enough experience, there is a risk of losing them for nothing in the waivers process in trying to send them to the AHL.
Example: Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs had three potential NHL goalies in Fredrick Andersen, Garret Sparks and Curtis McElhinney. Only wanting to keep a normal two goalies on the NHL roster, they decided to try to send McElhinney to the AHL and in the process placed him on waivers. With Scott Darling dinged up, the Hurricanes claimed McElhinney off of waivers and were able to add a player at no cost.
I will not go into all of the details, but this FAQ at CapFriendly has the experience requirements for waivers to be required. And this article from the vault at Canes and Coffee covers a few other contract legalese items.
AHL/NHL fringe considerations for the 2019-20 Hurricanes roster
Goalies
Petr Mrazek: Mrazek will obviously be at the NHL level, so there is nothing to consider there. Past Mrazek, the Hurricanes have a bit of a logjam at the goalie position.
James Reimer: Reimer is on a one-way contract and would need to clear waivers to go to the AHL. The Hurricanes might actually be okay with unloading his contract for nothing to clear salary cap space, but the issue is that he would likely go unclaimed and become a very expensive AHL goalie because of his one-way contract.
Alex Nedeljkovic: He has one more year of being waivers exempt which is significant in two ways. First, it is possible for him to develop for another year or part of it on an AHL salary and without risk of being lost on waivers to get there. The exemption from waivers also makes it possible for Nedeljkovic to play the majority of the 2019-20 season in the AHL but be recalled for short stints or as an injury fill in to get some NHL experience. And he can shuttle back and forth between the AHL and NHL without needing to clear waivers.
Anton Forsberg: Forsberg has yet to sign a 2019-20 contract and would need to clear waivers to go to the AHL. His contract is TBD but should be a two-way deal that pays an appropriate salary if he ends up at the AHL.
How I think it shakes out: My best guess is that the Hurricanes would prefer to save Reimer’s salary and use Nedeljkovic as the backup at the NHL level. The team would save $2.4 million (actual cost not cap hit) over a full season in 2019-20 and equally significantly would eliminate having to pay Reimer the same in 2020-21 with $2.25 million guaranteed even if there is a lockout. If unable to trade Reimer, plan B would likely be to start Nedeljkovic in the AHL with Reimer as the NHL backup. There is no issue getting Nedeljkovic to the AHL, but Forsberg would need to clear waivers.
Defensemen
The Hurricanes have four sure NHLers to start the season in Jaccob Slavin, Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce and Justin Faulk. Trevor van Riemsdyk is also certain to be at the NHL level, but might or might not be ready after shoulder surgery to start the season. That leaves the Hurricanes needing to fill two or three slots assuming a healthy extra. There are multiple players in the mix each with different considerations.
Haydn Fleury: Fleury is now on a one-way contract and more significantly would need to clear waivers to go to the AHL. As young player with high draft pedigree, another team would certainly take a chance on him and his inexpensive $850,000 contract. As such, I would be very surprised to see the Hurricanes put Fleury on waivers with intent of returning the AHL. If push came to shove in that regard, the Canes would likely be better off trading him to at least net a return.
Gustav Forsling: Forsling is in a somewhat similar position. He is different in that he is on a two-way contract, so he would have an appropriate AHL salary if he made it there. But he must clear waivers and could be a risk to be claimed as a player who is only 23 years old and with 122 games of NHL experience.
Roland McKeown: McKeown is potentially the most interesting situation. He is yet to be signed, but should be on a two-way contract once that happens. But the bigger issue is that he is another who will need to clear waivers to go to the AHL. As such, a rebuilding team with room on the blue line could claim him at no cost to give him an NHL tryout.
Jake Bean: Bean had a promising 2018-19 in his rookie season in the AHL. He also has the potential to be a boost for the power play. But as a player on a two-way contract who is still exempt from waivers, he could well be pushed to the AHL to start the season until the team makes adjustments with regard to the players who must clear waivers.
How I think it shakes out: If van Riemsdyk is not ready to start the season, I would expect the team to keep and audition all of Fleury, Forsling and McKeown. McKeown has the least experience, but has generally stepped up his game when given NHL ice time. He is also the only right shot of the group of four highlighted above. I could see the team trading one of Fleury, Forsling or McKeown if there is even a modest return versus risking losing one for nothing on waivers. Ultimately, Bean needs to see NHL ice time in 2019-20, but might have to wait for the situation to shake out. My best guess is that one of the three defensemen gets traded at some point to clear the backlog.
Forwards
If everyone is healthy, I count 11 forwards certain to be at the NHL level. (Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Erik Haula, Lucas Wallmark, Teuvo Teravainen, Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Dzingel, Brock McGinn, Warren Foegele, Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Martinook) If Justin Williams re-signs, that would make 12 which would leave room for only one more to carry 13 on the roster.
So here too there is a bit of a logjam with a few players trying to seize a roster spot.
Saku Maenalanen: Maenalanen played well down the stretch and in the playoffs. At least in his rookie season he was limited offensively which makes him capable but not a sure thing to be in the lineup. He is waiting on his new contract which I expect will be a two-way deal. He might not be happy with it after performing well at the NHL level, but he is waivers exempt and could head to Charlotte at least short-term if needed.
Martin Necas: After a strong rebound after being sent down the AHL in 2018-19, Necas figures to again get a look in training camp. He is on a two-way contract and waivers exempt which makes it possible for him to move freely between the AHL and NHL. As such, he will need to earn his spot. If he does not, more time developing in the AHL is possible.
The field: If Necas does not seize an opportunity and especially if Williams does not return, the door pops open for a dark horse to rise up from the prospect pool and seize an opportunity in training camp.
How I think it shakes out: I think ideally the team would like Necas to seize and keep a role. If that happens and Williams returns, it then takes an injury to make another spot open for competition. If Necas does not rise up and/or if Williams does not return, Maenalanen would be default #1. Clark Bishop could be default #2 as a player whose skill set is a good match for Brind’Amour’s system. But that could also crack the door open for a younger prospect to rise up in training camp and seize a spot. The younger prospects are all on two-way contracts and are waivers exempt, so the possibility is there for one of them to win an early season NHL audition.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think the team can/will trade James Reimer to make room for Alex Nedeljkovic at the NHL level? Or will Nedeljkovic have to show some patience until room is made at the NHL level or injury makes an opening?
2) On defense, what do you think the team will do with having three players in Haydn Fleury, Gustav Forsling and Roland McKeown who have the risk of being claimed off of waivers? Might a trade be in order either before the season starts or shortly thereafter?
3) How do you think things shake out at forward between Justin Williams re-signing, Martin Necas being ready and otherwise?
Go Canes!
I think, ultimately, Reimer will be moved out and Ned will slot in as the backup. I don’t get sense that people have a lot of faith in Reimer, but if there’s room (Williams doesn’t return) then keeping both Reimer/Ned through training camp and first 15 games might allow extended try out.
Some tough decisions on D. Don’t know much about Forsling. Have always thought McKeown should get a long look. He reminds me of TVR in some ways. Nothing too flashy, calm, makes good decisions with the puck. As much as TVR has been excellent as steady 3rd pair D, it might benefit the team if he’s not ready to start season and they can try out these young guys for first part of season.
I think Necas may spend another year in Charlotte, whether Williams signs or not. The top 9 is really full and I think Necas needs to play in top 6 or in Charlotte.
The problem with moving Reimer now is that there are almost no NHL teams that need a back up. Columbus, the most likely alternative, has already spoken via their GM that they are going with the two they’ve got on the team now….and Kekalainen has also said that he’d expect a Marleau-esque return to take a contract like Reimer’s….so again, a non-starter.
I think we’ll see McKeown get a good look in pre-season, if for no other reason, as an audition for a potential trade. We’d easily lose him to waivers.
I’ll take any bet that says Necas will be in Charlotte for any length of time this season. He’s almost certainly penciled in as the 3RW.
1. I don’t know of how star AHL goalies typically get their NHL time. Do they get it by being moved up as backups at the start of the season? I think more of goalies like Murray and Binnington who get their chances when injuries open the door for them. But I doubt Ned will be handed the role as backup – he will have to earn it, I expect, with circumstances working in his favor to give him the opportunity.
I think trading Reimer is in the cards – there are teams that need goalies and teams that still need to hit the cap floor (OTT). I imagine we would have to thrown in a sweetener of some sort in either way. But I don’t see us starting the season with all 4 goalies.
2. I had forgotten that McKeown is no longer waiver exempt. This is his big chance, if not with the Canes then with another organization. He isn’t viewed as highly around the AHL (and hence other organizations) as Fleury is, but I think it is unlikely he will clear waivers. A lot of teams will want to take a chance on a skilled, inexpensive RHD. If TvR is still out, I would imagine that McKeown starts as 3RHD. I know nothing about Forsling. But I think Fleury is more likely to be traded sometime in the season, particularly if Bean shows himself to be ready.
3. Given that we are down to $.45M in cap, we are almost at the point that we would have to clear cap to sign Williams. And I am starting to wonder if the knowledge is already there that he is not re-signing,but that is just speculation on my part.
With Necas slotting at RW, he should start the season on NHL ice. I don’t know how that balances out the other slots but unless RBA doesn’t take a liking to Necas’ current game he should be on opening night roster.
Saku will be the odd man out – will he accept a limited role?, or go to the KHL (as he almost did last December) if he gets returned to the AHL? He may be trade bait as well for us.
Off topic: Ron Francis sighting. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/07/seattle-eyeing-ron-francis-as-gm.html
Having just been reminded in the above article about how slowly personnel changes occurred during the last regime of Karmanos and Francis, the aggressiveness of “the committee” is reinforced all the more. I am of the opinion there will be more trades before the season starts, making conjecture about how the current roster will perform next season almost unnecessary.
Comment to pwriss: How ironic would it be, were Fleury to be picked up by a Francis led Seattle franchise in the expansion draft?
Surgalt. I was sipping coffee when I read your comment to me regarding Ronnie and our Haydn. You got me with a noser. I am glad the coffee wasn’t hot.
Interesting to see Ronnie as the GM for the new franchise. Can he improve on MacPhee’s performance? Can he be as good?
With the notable exception of our Haydn, I think Ronnie is a pretty good judge of hockey flesh.
Yesterday, I asked why people on this site are so negative about Trevor Carrick and so positive about our Haydn. Yesterday, I got an answer about Carrick. I am not sure that I agree with the criticism, but now I have an idea. Thanks for the answer.
People are notably silent on our Haydn. Today, I read a comment that said there are those in the AHL who are high on Haydn. My questions are who and why? Is it a secret? Please tell me. I would really like to know.
I view Fleury as a work in progress, not finished in his development as a NHL defenseman. Age, number of games played, and the inconsistent way he was utilized by RBA should carry some weight in his evaluation. For me, it’s just to early to make final judgement on the player. For you, you have seen enough to be sure. The fact that he was just resigned at close to minimum contract for only a year suggests the team wants to give him a little more time. I’m ok with that if it is the plan.
This is a make or break year for Fleury, at least in terms of his future earning power in the NHL. If he breaks through and erases question marks about his future his earning power will be geometrically higher than if he stays a marginal option. Between having to earn playing time from RBA and his contract status he should play this season like his hair is on fire. Anything less and you will have predicted his fate better than others like me.
1. Regarding goaltending: Reimer has had some outstanding seasons and some not so outstanding. Considering on ice performance potential only, he could be the best goalie on the roster. If this were the only factor to consider and given the Canes are now a cup contending type team, Reimer stays at least long enough to see what version we going to get.
When you throw in salary considerations and if this becomes the overriding decision factor, then Reimer goes and we hope for the best from Ned.
My choice is keep Reimer to see which Reimer he is because he has played behind lousy defensive teams in the past and we have a very good defense comparably.
2. Defense: I’ve watched Fleury at both the NHL and AHL level and have always been a Fleury cheerleader. After watching him closely, I have come to the conclusion that he is an inconsistent performer at both levels. He seems to play very well in spurts and then it’s like his mind wanders and he doesn’t play well in spurts. I watched Bean play in the AHL playoffs and on offense and defense I hardly noticed him. This can be good or bad. The Carrick that I saw was a little slow, very aggressive, provided some grit but was reckless resulting in lots of penalty box time. The McKeon that I saw was “steady” on defense and non-existent on offense.
My choice is Fleury or McKeon as either one stand more chance of not diminishing our defense and will aid our goalies more.
3. The others: I don’t have a real hard position on the forwards. I do like Saku making the team for his size and grit.
Everyone above has covered the topic pretty well and I really don’t have any glaring problems with any of their opinions.
Forsling has the most NHL experience of this group of defenseman, I would expect him to occupy at least one of the two remaining spots (until TVR returns), assuming that he signs of course.
I wonder if 2 or 3 of Reimer + one of the d men + Macginn could be traded for something like the rights to Puljajarvi or Gusev.
Maybe trade all 3 to Edm, allow them to buy out Lucic.
Trade 2 to Vegas for the rights to sign Gusev (reported price tag of 4 mill) if Williams is not going to resign, then try to trade Reimer for a pick.
I’d rather have Saku than Mcginn in the lineup.
he has higher potential to be an impact player than Macginn, as much as I like Macginn.
1. I don’t see us trading Reimer in 2019. He and Mrazek will be sharing the load since neither has ever been a workhorse. They are used to about 40 starts a year on average. Ned will be ready in case of injury.
2. I expect Fleury and Forsling will split time on the 3rd pairing. McKeown needs to stay at the AHL level this year to protect him from being exposed to waivers, unless a major injury to a top d-man occurs that necessitates him staying with the Canes all season. Bean will be the likely call-up when needed since he is waiver exempt. We need to keep all of these young d-men until we sign or do not sign Justin Faulk.
3. Like Bean, Necas could benefit by another year in Charlotte. If JW returns then Necas will likely be in the AHL; if JW does not return then Necas could be slotted as RW on the 3rd line next to Haula.
On a side note about JW, I’ve seen a few comments about him re-signing for a greatly reduced market value. Evolving Wild estimates his one-year contract at $5.3M. Money (and his perceived value to the team) could be a very big issue. It will be interesting to see how things play out. Hopefully fair terms can be agreed upon. It would be horrible to see him playing for a competitor.
By my understanding, McKeown will be exposed to waivers even if we send him down during the preseason.
Waivers are confusing. According to Capfriendly McKeown and Carrick are on the AHL roster. If they are they could just be left there without being involved in waivers. Fleury and Forsling are listed on the NHL roster. If that is the case they would require waivers to move to the AHL. Hopefully that helps keep the situation clear as mud. What is clearer is there must be pressure on “the committee” to trade one or more of these 4 before one is lost for nothing when the season begins.
Interesting that Matt chose this topic. A new article in the Athletic by Dom Luszczyszcyn (pardon the spelling) rates our beloved Canes as the number one cap efficient team in the NHL.
As someone who normally hates fancy player stats, I found the rather involved math to be fascinating. I guess I really like the fact that the writer wasn’t calling Tommy a cheapskate.
I concur on a basic dislike/distrust of advanced analytic stats for individual players. What does interest me though is the use of those stats to construct a team in the age of the salary cap. The trade of DeHaan may have been an example of that usage. He was very good, but expendable, because of lower cost options that kept the sum of the analytics for all defensemen above the level determined to keep the performance/budget ratio effective and below the overall budget for the team.
All good angles above. My take, I think Reimer starts the season as the 1B because he’s been a proven NHL starter and can be reliable if given the chance. I also think Ned starts in CLT and as soon as one goalie struggles or is injured, the kid gets his chance. By year’s end would not be surprised if Ned is the 1A because I think he’s that good and will make the goalie decision difficult on Roddie.
The team has enough cheap depth options to create a nice 3rd pairing. You never know, come November TVR may be the one who is dealt if Fleury/McKweon or any other combo (Forsling/Bean/Sellgren, etc.) make a go of it.
Necas is ready. Williams is the one I teeter on, because he is very slow and I cannot see him repeating last year’s production, and last year took his every ounce mentally and physically. Tough call, really.
Special mention to former GMRF — in that glad he is landing another kick at the GM can. And extra kudos for this site in that rarely do articles dwell on or fawn over former player and management updates like other notable Canes sites do ad nauseam. It’s refreshing to see this team making strides the way DW and TD have been doing and keeping our focus on the future. So give RF credit for building a good base here and wish him well…same as Darling and every other former. But real excited about this team for 2019-20.
The comments on the goalies are probably correct on us starting with Mzarek/Reimer. Unless the Canes get an offer they can’t refuse or poor play/injury. Its good to have depth even if it forces guys to play in lower leagues.
There is a good article on NHL.com about the canes 2nd round pick. He was under the radar until last year’s World Jrs. But he sound like he has a lot of self confidence. Sort of like Slavin’s story.
There are a number of ways Jwilly’s cap hit can be spread over 2 years. I think it is up to him on coming back. Losing him hurts but I think you wait to gm 15-20 to see if a trade should be made. There is also an idea that he comes back in 2020 for the 2nd half.
I have great hope that we are indeed a cup contender but am I thinking as a fan? Starting to see a lot of analysis of the upcoming season that have the canes out of the playoffs. it seems that people are too high on the Isles/Devils/Flyers/Rangers and even Pittsburgh. Maybe too low on the Blue Jackets. Right on the canes? Can’t wait to see it play out for real.
Mainstream media will always be high on Isles, Devils, Flyers and Rangers for a reason. Large market teams = large market hype. And hype is just that.
I would be shocked if the Canes ended up worse than three of those four. As we stand I think we can be 2nd to 4th seed in Metro.
Based on what I’ve seen in the Metro, which admittedly is only occasional glances at hockey sites, it plays out like this:
Most improved –
the Rangers – there is a lot of roster turnover but this team could be legit, depends how their wonder rookie performs. I got the feeling the Rangers are going to be dangerous, or danger is going to be Rangerous.
The devils – – with Jack Hughes drafted, Taylor Hall back in action, and Subban in the mix, this team could be one to watch.
Roughly the same:
The Caps – they haven’t done much to change their roster, and the Canes beat them in the playoffs, they remain beatable.
The Flyers – vastly under-performed last season, could do better, it doesn’t feel like they’ve super retooled their roster so they could go either way.
The Islandders – they’ve done some tinkering with the roster but there’s still no sign that they’re changing from an over achieving team into a legit contender.
Going down
Pit – The penguins are on a constant and slow decline. They got Crosby and Malkin (and you don’t get much better 1 and 2C than that) but they’ve traded away Kessel,and are dealing with an over abundance of overpaid players who under perform.
Blue Jackets – the team went all in only to lost to Boston. Since then they’ve lost most of their superstars with no replacements. The direction of the team is unclear and their prospect pipeline is not terrible, but their lack of action over the summer is troubling to their fans.
Where do the Canes slot in there. I think a chance for third to forth is not an unreasonable guess, assuming none of the other teams pull a major upside surprise.