With another huge game with playoff implications on tap, the game preview is up early for the Canes versus the Pens at PNC Arena on Tuesday night.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe diverts a bit from the here and now and offers an early look at the team’s salary cap situation for 2019-20.
Background
The Hurricanes currently rank 31st in the NHL in salary. And with a few moves that seem budget-focused since Tom Dundon bought the team, some have questioned the team’s appetite for spending to build a winner. No doubt, the team could have spent more this season or possibly added at the trade deadline. But some might argue that the time has not been right yet, but that soon the team should consider bumping up spending to fill out the lineup.
Built in salary increase is on the way
But here is the thing — The Hurricanes salary spending is scheduled to rise significantly for the 2019-20 without the need for Tom Dundon to make a conscious decision to do so.
Forwards
The Hurricanes have five forwards already locked in for 2019-20 at the same price as 2018-19 — Jordan Staal, Nino Niederreiter, Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele and Lucas Wallmark. (5 players — $0 increase)
The Hurricanes also have two forwards locked into new contracts at a higher price — Teuvo Tervainen, Jordan Martinook. (2 players — $2.7 million increase)
The biggest increase will be Sebastian Aho. He is making only $925,000 on his entry-level contract. If he can finish strong, I think he could play his way into a $10 million contract just below the top tier. A discount to $8.5 million would be welcome, but I think more likely $10 million is the right number. (1 player — $9.1 million increase)
The Hurricanes also have three other players likely to return on similar contracts — Justin Williams, Saku Maenalanen and Brock McGinn, Greg McKegg (or similar). (3 players — $0 increase)
Finally, Micheal Ferland represents a wild card. As an unrestricted free agent, he will certainly receive a raise from the $1.75 million he is earning this season be it from the Hurricanes or via free agency. His injury issues and slowed scoring pace in the second half of the season should decrease his price, but he probably still requires something between $4 million and $5 million. (IF re-signed: 1 player — $2.2 million increase)
Total for the forward position — Without Ferland => $11.8 million increase // With Ferland => $14.0 million increase
Defensemen
The blue line is mostly locked in barring any trades with six players under contract for the same price next year — Jaccob Slavin, Dougie Hamilton, Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce, Calvin de Haan, Trevor van Riemsdyk. (6 players — $0 increase)
In addition, the other 2018-19 semi-regular defenseman should return on a similar contract — Haydn Fleury. (1 player — $0 increase)
The possible wild card is that the Hurricanes trade a defenseman which at least potentially decreases salary commitment depending on what is received in return.
Total for the blue line — $0 increase
Goalie
Unless his current leave of absence situation throws a wrench in things, the Hurricanes will most certainly buy out Scott Darling this summer. The result would be a lower 2019-20 cap hit — Scott Darling. (1 player — $2.7 million decrease)
But much of that savings will be spent re-signing or replacing Curtis McElhinney and Petr Mrazek who are both signed to bargain contracts (McElhinney at $850,000 and Mrazek at $1.5 million). The possibilities are numerous. Both could return. Only one could return with Alex Nedeljkovic elevated to the NHL level. The team could keep one and shop externally for a second. For simple illustration, I will assume both current goalies are re-signed. As a younger goalie with a history as a starter, I think Mrazek will require $2.5 to $3 million to re-sign, especially if he finishes strong. McElhinney should come cheaper as a 35-year old but has definitely earned a raise. I estimate his next contract as $1.5 to $1.8 million possibly for two years as a reward — Curtis McElhinney and Petr Mrazek. (2 players — $2.1 million increase)
Netting it out
If one assumes that the team passes on Ferland to save money but sticks with the same blue line, then the team’s salary commitments would increase by $11.2 million. So without doing anything other than maintaining the team, the Hurricanes 2019-20 salary commitments would rise to $74.5 million. With the 2019-20 salary cap currently projected to be around $83 million, the Hurricanes would still have room if the leadership decided to retain Ferland or otherwise add salary. But at the same time, the team would very quickly bridge about half of the gap from being near the cap floor.
The budget version for 2019-20 would include letting Ferland go and then trading a defenseman for futures, prospects or less expensive players. Such moves could push the team back down to about $70 million of salary cap commitments.
My best guess though is that the Hurricanes do trade a defenseman but do so in a lateral move that brings back a forward with a similar salary cap hit. If the Hurricanes couple that with re-signing Ferland, the available cap space suddenly shrinks to $5 to $6 million. That does offer some flexibility and the potential to add another player, but it is also a far cry from the bargain basement rosters iced in recent years.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Is anyone caught by surprise by how much the Hurricanes salary commitments escalate automatically next summer?
2) For the open items…
a) How much does Aho’s next contract come in at?
b) Will the Hurricanes re-sign Ferland?
c) Will the team deal a defenseman this summer? If so, will be a salary cut, or would the Canes receive a comparable forward back?
Go Canes!
1. Not at all.
2. a)8.9M for 8 years. Just a hunch.
b) No. Partly due to salary, but more due to the fact that Williams is still playing at a first-line level and Svechnikov needs to be on the second-line next season. The evidence is fairly strong that Ferland’s production falls off if he isn’t playing with top playmakers, so close to $5M doesn’t make sense on the Canes.
c) I can see both pros and cons for dealing a defenseman. The conventional wisdom is that Faulk gets moved for a player with a similar salary/term. Given how management was willing to make a big deal for Hamilton/Ferland I can imagine what others can’t. The Canes actually have a glut on the left side with Pesce finding more offense on that side. Florida is strongly rumored to be in the market for Panarin. While the possibility is remote, I could see Slavin for Huberdeau.
I’d be shocked if Ferland re-signed at 4 mil per. I’d more upset that we considered trading him if he was okay with 4 million. I bet he wants close to if not exceeding Wilson money. Big sarcastic thanks to Washington for over paying Wilson.
I’d also be pleasantly surprised if Mrazek would only take 2.5 to 3 to re-sign. If he finishes strong he’ll be asking 4 to 4.5. It will be interesting to see if Mrazek takes a one year deal to try get more money long term. Heck Edmonton gave their mediocre young back up 4 million per.
Definitely trade a defender for offense. If we trade for a defender, we run out of forward spots for Checkers. We have Foegele & Martinook. Do we keep similar players in McGinn & Maenalenan too?
To me the key to next seasons roster is do the Canes sign Fox and how the management team including CRB view Checkers. If they believe any of Gauthier, Saarela, Geekie, and Necas are ready as forwards or Bean as a defenseman, then the need to overpay for Ferland is mitigated, and trading a defenseman is more about futures than getting back a forward. I believe Aho signs for $9.5 M.
Also this team is really light on Right shot forwards. Necas, Gauthier, and Geekie are all right shot. I would hope 2 of them make the team for better balance.
1. Not surprised, Aho’s anticipated salary increase alone gets the team in the middle of the pack.
2a. Speaking of Aho, $9.5-$10mil per (1/3rd paid as bonus). Gut feeling only way this goes lower is if the contract is paid primarily on bonuses.
2b. Ferland – maybe, depends on his asking price. Otherwise Goat Man should be ready for rookie duty. Slightly different players, yes.
2c. I want to say the team will trade a defenseman, but a lot depends on Fox and if he signs. To CT’s point, Pesce on his offside means we have a surplus on both sides if Fox signs. Something has to give on defense, and as great of a run with two good-spirited goalies, I still think Ned makes his way onto the roster as a 1A/1B. Mrazek may ask for more than Canes are willing to offer, but who knows?
Defense – The question ishow bad do we want Fox onthe roster. This will dictate whether we trade a D-man or not. If you look further down the list you will see that 4 out or 5 of the non-roster D-men on Charlotte also need to be resigned. Interesting dilema for management.
Forwards – If we sign 3 out of the 4 (Williams, Saku, McGinn and McKegg) the we are down at least one forward and if we don’t sign Ferland then we are down 2. So does this drive a D-man trade for a forward and at what cost? Or do we elevate two from the Checkers?
Goalies – Asmentioned, Ned is up for contract renewal do we elevate him to a back up and just sign Mrazek or another goalie? If we don’t sign either of our current goalies who do we go after? If you go after someone like Bob that will be a huge increase in Cap Dollars.
I think the Hurricanes Brain Trust has some interesting decisions to make this summer and it will be interesting to watch and see what they come up with.
Good points by 0506, bbq, and lfod.
The only need at this point is a proven goal-scorer as there are actually too many 3rd/4th line types. One of McGinn or Maenalanen won’t have a spot next season. With Necas ready, that is likely the 3rd line RW spot. If Ferland were to re-sign, then Martinook would be bumped down and Foegele or both McGinn/Maenalanen would be out. That is without any other Checker making a case.
Nedeljkovic has done everything that has been asked of him in the AHL–plus both Booth and Helvig could use AHL development. So I think Ned is on the opening night NHL roster. Maybe the Canes don’t re-sign McElhinney. I would like to see both the current goalies retained and then one moved if Ned takes their spot. But starting with 3 goalies is not likely.
The Canes making the playoffs this season might allow them to feel less pressure next season and do something like have both Bean and Fox in the lineup. Balancing immediate success with building the best team for a 5-year period of Cup contention will challenge management.
Mrazek is at the prove stage, can he lead the Canes to the playoffs and play well when they get there. Then he can get a contract bigger than Koskinen(4.5M) got from EDM. So, I hope he gets 5M.
I think Ned starts the year in raleigh. If not Petr then I would trade for a vet like J. Quick.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we start the year with Bean and Fox with the big club.
I would be surprised if the panthers trade Huberdeau but I would love to see that.
Interesting moves will be made for next year. I thought they would have traded Faulk already and didn’t think they would bring in 2 D in Ham and deHaan.
The brain trust has done an excellent job (and got lucky with McElhinney). With some more good moves/player development then the Canes will be competitive for a long while.
Lucky Eights for Aho? $8.8M for 8 years.
I’d like to see Ferland return but $5M is probably too pricey. $4M seems about right. However, if Necas makes the team then we better have Ferland for protection.
If Jake Bean is ready then Faulk becomes even more expendable. At some point soon Justin Williams will not be able to match his current production and may be better suited to play on the third line. Faulk for right-handed RW Toffoli (similar contracts) would give us an heir apparent to slot on the top line with Aho and Nino.
I really like jaffmaster’s comment about signing Quick. LA might even retain salary if we traded Fleury to them.
Well, I’ve discussed this at length on another site. First of all we all have to remember that the Hurricanes are now and always will be a smaller market team. We will almost never spend to the salary cap, nor should we. I believe there will be a time when we get closer, however.
First of all understand that we likely have a Top 6 next season of Niederreiter, Aho, Williams, Svechnikov, Staal, and Teravainen.
First of all, if Aho signs for 8 years, be prepared for a $10 million or more per year figure. My guess is that we only buy out a couple of his UFA years, signing him for around $9.5 million per year over 6 years. I also think that we may “Glen Wesley” Justin Williams. For those who weren’t around then, Glen signed a series of 1 year contracts, giving him the flexibility of deciding at the end of each season if he wanted to play the next. I think you’ll see similar treatment of J-Willy. Right now I’ve got him penciled in for a 1 year, $4 million deal.
As of today, I think re-signing Ferland is a 50/50 proposition. If the team makes a run of any kind, it may impact his ask. But this is his last chance at a big payday. All along, it has never been about salary as much as term. He’s likely looking for 6 or 7 years and the front office wants something closer to 4 years. I’d pay him $6 million a year for 3 years, $5.75 million for 4 years, but beyond that I’d be between $4.5 million and $5 million and wouldn’t go beyond a 5 year term. In the end, you’re basically paying for a guy that you’re hoping gets you 20 goals and 40-45 points, but brings that unique physical presence…which you’ll be able to count on for about 65 games at best. Given what we’ve got for a Top 6, Micheal Ferland is a 3rd liner on this team. Do you pay that position over $4 million?
We still have too many other bottom 6 guys – McGinn, Maenalanen, McKegg, Foegele, Martinook, and Wallmark – 3 of those guys are signed for next season and 3 are not. You’ve also got the happy Martin Necas problem. Add to this that Julian Gauthier and Aleksi Saarela (even Andrew Poturalski, for that matter) are banging on the NHL gates. My guess is two of McGinn, Maenalanen, McKegg, or Foegele will either get moved or not re-signed.
The defense is essentially set. Yes, Fox and Bean are “X” factors, but I think the real action will come from moving one of our RHDs. Faulk probably makes the most sense, it probably happens at or around the draft, and he likely returns an under-appreciated forward with scoring potential. That also frees up almost $5 million in salary cap space. My guess is Fleury, Bean, Fox, and McKeown are battling it out for bottom pairing duties. As much as I like what I’ve seen from TVR, I think he’s a candidate to get moved as well (although when playing his right side, he’s been pretty good).
I’m also one that believes Ned is in the NHL next season. I’d be fine with keeping the same duo in net, but I think we likely keep Mrazek and sign him either to a 2 year or a 4 year deal. Between our two goalies, I’m guessing we spend around $4 million.
If Faulk and/or TVR gets traded and/or Ferland doesn’t get resigned, I think the front office would spend up to $6 million (but probably won’t have to) to add one more scoring threat. Maybe you pick up a 2C/3C and move Wallmark down to the 4th line. I’ve also liked Saad as a target, but who knows. In the end, I think the team spends about $73 million and ices some new faces.