The Daily Cup of Joe features a series of quick hitters.
Dodging a bullet
Ideally, the way a playoff chase works is that you just win consistently for a couple months, ride up the standings and decrease the amount of stretch day by day. The normal reality is significantly different. There are inevitably ups and downs even for the teams that eventually land on the good side of the cut line. Last week scheduled out to be a tough one for the Canes with three match ups against teams in the upper echelon of the NHL, and the on-ice version lived up to those expectations. The Hurricanes 1-1-1 mark was more treading water than climbing, but I think that is more positive than negative given the competition and the hiccup on Friday.
Wishing ill upon the enemy
When I most recently handicapped the competition in the playoff chase, I hoped that the Blue Jackets would hit a rough patch and implode. Somewhat like the Canes, the Blue Jackets hung in by winning the second of two games against the Penguins to get a treading water-ish split. The schedule this week for the Blue Jackets offers another opportunity to fall down. Columbus has a back-to-back against the Islanders and Bruins starting Monday. Then they have a back-to-back against the Hurricanes and Bruins again starting on Friday. If the Hurricanes can do their part in a big four-point game on Friday, could the tough rest of the week sink the Blue Jackets? One can hope.
Watching for walls
Suddenly 68 games into the 2018-19 season and with the volume of games to pick up a bit starting on Friday, I will be watching to see how the team’s youth and other players look and whether any seem to be hitting a wall.
Andrei Svechnikov is in uncharted territory in his first NHL season. Encouraging is his level of engagement physically. Discouraging is how much he has faded offensively. He has only a single empty net goal in the past 13 games. Once Ferland returns, perhaps including Svechnikov in the healthy scratch rotation can keep him fresher and net more of his offensive upside.
I have been watching Justin Faulk of late. After having a much better season defensively overall, he has had a few more issues of late with a couple telegraphed passes that went the other direction, the turnover for the goal against in overtime and other plays where he has looked a half step slow. Brind’Amour has him near the top of the list for minutes in many games. Recently, I am wondering if his ice time should be going slightly in the other direction.
Micheal Ferland who is not on the road trip is dinged up and seemingly in a way where it has become a recurring issue.
In general, late March is a critical time for the coaching staff to watch players closely with an eye for who is fresh and rising and who might be fading a bit. Getting too regimented in terms of doling out minutes and assignments without consideration for near-term results can be a pitfall this time of year.
Room for a complementary defenseman in Jake Bean or Adam Fox
When looking at the prospect pool for the Hurricanes, two players who have risen as much as any this season are Jake Bean and Adam Fox. Bean has made a successful transition to professional hockey at the AHL level and is tracking toward the NHL. Harvard defenseman Adam Fox was highly touted when acquired in the summer trade with Calgary but has actually managed to boost his stock since then with a huge season scoring-wise. The Hurricanes are deep at the NHL level on the blue line, but interestingly the skill set that Bean or Fox might bring is exactly what one would want to add to the Canes blue line. The team’s power play has been up and down and ‘meh’ overall in 2018-19, and the defensemen playing on it have been pretty similar. Faulk theoretically has the big blast that a team wants on the power play, but his is not so much a quarterback type and even as a trigger man, his four goals and four assists are underwhelming. Jaccob Slavin has made strides in his first full season as a power play regular and he is serviceable in that role. But for everything Slavin does excel at, he is not a natural power play quarterback either. Dougie Hamilton arguably has the highest upside of the group both in terms of scoring and also playmaking from the point, but he has mostly been relegated to the second unit and has also been adequate but not significantly better thus far in 2018-19.
Long story short, the Hurricanes could benefit from having more of a power play quarterback defenseman in the mix on the power play. Though both have steps up to take to do it at the NHL level, both Bean and Fox have exactly that skill set at lower levels. Further, both project to be able to one day do the same at the NHL level. I said during preseason that I thought Bean could be a serviceable power play defensemen at the time even though other areas of his game needed work. The same is true of Fox. If the Hurricanes make room, one of Bean or Fox could fit nicely in a somewhat sheltered learning role initially playing lighter minutes on a third pairing with veteran defense partner but stepping directly into a key role on the power play.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are the chances that Columbus flames out with their tough schedule this week?
2) From your observations, have you noticed any Hurricanes players who seem to be sagging a bit physically heading into the last 14 games of the season?
3) What do you think of the prospects of Jake Bean or Adam Fox joining the NHL roster next season and immediately jumping into and making an impact in a power play quarterback type of role?
Go Canes!
1) Columbus could go either way. Due to the trade deadline acquisitions they have as much talent as any team not in Tampa. But their best players are about to become UFAs so they could check out after another loss or two.
2) I haven’t noticed any particular player struggling. The entire team was bad Friday and everyone looked fine Saturday. I am impressed that Williams is playing 5 years younger this late in the season.
3) I watched the Checkers yesterday. Bean is solid in all three zones. He has earned an opportunity. Fox looked great in camp and has produced at an extremely high level in the NCAA–his offensive game is ready. Fox would fit into the lineup easier as he could pair with de Haan. Bean would likely have to play with TVR–who is solid but not quite the defensive stalwart that de Haan is. Bean/Pesce would be interesting if the coaches can figure out a way to keep Pesce’s minutes up without exposing Bean in too many critical situations.
That’s a rough 4 game stretch for Cbus. Sobering thing for Canes though is that the next 3 games against Colorado, Columbus, and Buffalo is arguably the easiest part of the schedule until the final two games.
I really think RBA should rest Aho. LOLOL. I’d agree with you, give Svech a rest and let him catch his breath.
I keep forgetting what the rules are for Fox and his ability to become a UFA – what’s the deadline to sign him? Adam Gold’s podcast, Canes Corner, had a really good segment recently going over the Checkers and they had great things to say about Bean’s play and his growth.
Regarding Fox – we currently own the rights to sign him to an ELC and can do so at any time. If Fox opts to play 4 years of college hockey, he becomes a UFA on August 15, 2020.
Great, thanks. So it could be that a summer trade of one (or more) of Canes Dmen might entice him to sign.
1. I would argue that CBJ effectively imploded as soon as they got Duchene ad Dzingel. Now they are in the position of trying to right the ship. The question is, as yyou suggested last week, whether the Big 4 are already looking forward to free agency. And I stated that what will make or break their season is one or more players taking on the role of team leaders to maintain a winning perspective. There is a tension between the two, and the next six games are critical for that team.
2. Svech hasn’t been scoring very much but he is still playing his aggressive, hard-hitting, charging the net style of play. I don’t think his energy has really fallen off at all, even if his scoring has. And, in general, I don’t think there is anyone who has really fallen off the pace.
3. As I have said before, I think both Bean and Fox are both playing significant roles for the Canes next season.
1. The Canes no longer need a team to lose to move into the playoffs. They control their own destiny only needing to win their own games. Color me greedy, but by my reckoning the Canes should be focused on getting ahead of the Islanders in the standings more than just staying ahead of Columbus. The Islanders are 4-5-1 in their last ten and are ripe for the taking.
2. Svech is looking out of phase with his line mates. Is it him, or is it his line mates? I’d like to see him on a more talented line before I chalk his lack of production up to fatigue.
3. If the rhetoric regarding improving the team this summer is to be believed, a lot will happen to this roster this off-season. The presence of Bean creates some flexibility in the re-construction of our front line at the expense of an existing top 6 dman. Fox shouldn’t be even in the conversation until he is signed. Until then he is just the proverbial bird in the bush. His regular season at Harvard ends on March 17th, but the Frozen Four tourney will keep him unsignable until they fall out of the tournament. The finals are on April 13th. The window between the end of the Canes season and the end of Harvard’s season may represent the last real chance to sign Fox. Otherwise his incentives to wait for a year to reach free agency may be too much to resist.
“Otherwise his incentives to wait for a year to reach free agency may be too much to resist.” – I used to promote this same way of thinking and, ordinarily, this would be likely. But the 2020-21 season will probably be affected by a lockout of unknown duration. Fox won’t be able to sign as a UFA until August 15. But the current CBA will expire on 9/15/202 if, as expected, the league or the players union opts out this September. If he chooses to graduate he may not see professional ice or money untii January 2021 (or even later??).
Fox is facing significant risk because of this timing.
I now think there is a stronger argument that he comes out in March/April of this year – he would probably get a maximum ELC signing bonus and end up playing on the Checkers’ playoff team under this scenario, while competing for a spot with the NHL squad in September.
Fox would become a free agent in August, 2020 were he to remain unsigned. The primary incentive to not sign is he then gets to pick where he wants to play; a lock out or strike, doesn’t change that incentive. If there is a strike or lock out, Fox will receive no compensation from the NHL regardless of being signed or not. If unsigned when the work interruption occurs, his ability to contract to play in Europe for the year would be simpler. I disagree that the possibility of a lock out or strike will effect Fox’s decision to go pro in NC now or go pro wherever he choses next summer.
If he signs in March, he gets signing bonus, salary for this season – and salary for next season; and guarantee of professional ice time. I will be surprised if he doesn’t sign – of course, I have been surprised by a lot oof things in life! LOL!
If he signs next year in August, he gets to play on the team of his choice, he gets signing bonus, salary for next season, he can get a guarantee of NHL professional time, a guaranteed bonus if there is a lock out the following year and a faster ramp up in his NHL salary. If he signs soon he gets is a guarantee of an AHL salary next season, earlier use of signing bonus money and can hit UFA status one year sooner.
My bigger point is we should not be pencilling Fox into our depth chart until he is signed. Plans that include him now are not realistic.
Fox’s incentive are starting his NHL clock, getting paid now and playing professionally.
Last lockout many players went to europe. If he signs now then he can play in the AHL if the NHL is locked out. That is what E. Staal did.
Fox went to Harvard, so he has to realize that his most lucrative and rewarding option is to sign wth the canes.