Wednesday’s Daily Cup of Joe had the goalie position as the Canes big off-season decision #1.
Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe had the blue line as the Canes big off-season decision #2.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe continues on the same path in looking at the Canes big off-season decision #3 considering the forward group.
Assessing the group
Across the three positions, I would say that the forward group is where the Hurricanes were still most a work in progress during the 2018-19 season. That is not in a negative way. Strides were made during the 2018-19 season, and the prospect pool at forward is promising. Further, Andrei Svechnikov and Warren Foegele held down NHL roster spots as rookies. Sebastian Aho’s move to center was a success. And Brind’Amour’s forechecking system demonstrated the ability to generate offense with intensity in both the regular season and playoffs. But in total, I think the group is still a player or two short in terms of raw offensive fire power and enters at least the third consecutive off-season ideally needing an offensive catalyst type center for a second scoring line.
My sorting breaks the Hurricanes forward group down into three categories. First are three players (Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov) who slot on first or second scoring lines noting that Svechnikov is still growing into this role especially away from the puck. Then the Hurricanes have three players (Staal, Williams, Niederreiter) who are capable complementary players on a first or second line. Ferland would also slot here if re-signed. And Staal in an ideal world is a 2B center who leads a checking line that sits behind two higher-end scoring lines. Then my math says that the Hurricanes have a good collection of six players (Foegele, McGinn, Wallmark, Martinook, Maenalanen, McKegg) who ideally slot on the fourth line on a good team with a deep offense. These players are capable of playing on the third line especially to fill in for injuries, but if the entire third line is built from this group as it was at times in 2018-19, it starts to look like a fourth line in terms of scoring production. Worth noting is that rookies Foegele and Wallmark do have upside. After an odd regular season with fireworks at the beginning and end but a lot of quiet production-wise in between, Foegele was every bit a capable top 9 forward in late in the season and in the playoffs. And Wallmark scored at the AHL, so there is potential for him to take a step up in a second season.
But in avoiding building the 2019-20 roster based on too many might be/could be’s, I think the potential is there to improve significantly by adding maybe just one proven scoring forward.
The job description
The idea would be to add a player like Aho who can be a driver/catalyst that boosts a whole line and becomes the centerpiece of a second scoring line. If the team added a high-end scoring center, the lineup changes significantly. Aho and the added player drive two scoring lines. Staal slots neatly in a 2B role with checking as a priority and less scoring demands. And Wallmark suddenly becomes a fourth line center. In that slot, his 10 goals and 28 points are very good production. Equally significantly, adding another offensive catalyst should boost scoring for whichever other two players slot on that line. Finally, such a player would bring yet another option to try to right the power play.
The player who jumps out as perfect for this role is Matt Duchene, but as a top target this summer, he will cost a small fortune. Artemi Panarin could bring the same catalyst capability from the wing. As a team that was rebuilding but made significant strides in 2018-19 by making the playoffs, the team is in uncharted territory. In addition, the team collected a chunk of change from seven home playoff games and maybe more significantly from the increased advance sales for 2019-20. So to say for certain that the Hurricanes would not play in this market ignores the fact that we really do not have any history with the current situation with Tom Dundon.
Patience versus action
As noted above, forward is the position where the Hurricanes have the most help on the way from the prospect pool. Martin Necas was originally slotted to provide offensive help at the NHL level for the 2018-19 season but did not prove to be ready. He went on to have a good season offensively at the AHL level. From the last look at him in the NHL last fall, his challenge at least in terms of playing his natural center position will not be raw scoring but rather his ability to round out the rest of his game. In an ideal world, a good organization just lets a player like Necas develop until ready and then makes room when appropriate. Though Brind’Amour seems more comfortable with players that match his forechecking style, the team has a couple other potential offensive contributors at the AHL level who could at least help add more fire power for a third line.
So the question is whether the team can get by for now and wait for help to rise up from the AHL level or if the wiser move is to make an upgrade or two this summer.
Where I land
I would add at least one higher-end offensive player this off-season if at all possible, though my preference would be to do so via a trade for a player who has term on his contract at a reasonable price. The Hurricanes are in a good position to put together an aggressive package for the right player. Per yesterday’s article, perhaps they part with a defenseman. In addition, they have extra draft picks, a couple good forward prospects and the set of reasonably desirable depth forwards. I will save the ‘naming names’ part for closer to the frenzy leading up the 2019 NHL Draft, but if the Hurricanes are willing to spend fairly aggressively to do it, there could be a couple decent trade options.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you lean toward continuing with the current group possibly with help from the AHL-level prospects? Or do you instead think the team could benefit from adding a higher-end forward or two?
2) If you vote for adding a player or two, would you be looking more for a finisher or a puck distributor? Or possibly just opportunistically adding the best player available for a modest cost?
Go Canes!
The first decision is the resigning and term for Aho.
Is he the future top line center? If so, his salary is probably the bar for any other UFA or trade signing.
I’d like to see an upgrade for a second line center and one upgrade for scoring from the W.
There is the trade market, a Nylander or Kadri from Tor, (they are too top heavy and must find an upgrade at D), Johnson from Tampa, maybe RNH is still a possibility from the Oilers (though I’d prefer Draizittel), I still like Tyler Toffoli from LA.
Duchene and Povelski are desireable, but too costly I guess.
Kevin Hayes could be within reach but questionable as an upgrade.
Carolina made it to the final 4, that might make them a more desirable destination.
I’d explore wingers like Zuccarello or trade for someone like Puljarvi (for a pick and Fleury, not much more)or similar.
From Clt, Poturolski is breaking all sorts of scoring record as a center, could his talent translate to a top 6 NHL role?
Will Necas be ready? Can Gauthier be a replacement for Ferland (grit and scoring)?
What is Thomas Jurko’s situation? Is Saarella a career AHL er?
Roy is probably the Rod VIP, works hard, good defensively, but not a scorer, his ceiling is a Jordan Staal lite.
Necas – Vellucci thinks he is ready and in CLT Necas has turned into a playmaking wing.
Gauthier – he is not a Ferland-like player, but a big body who can move the puck strong to the net; he is more like Svech.
Jurco – he is on an AHL contract, but I expect Vellucci will make a strong case for him to be re-signed to a 2-way NHL deal in June.
Saarela – his shot is NHL-ready (truly a sight to behold) and he does a great job either creating his own shot on the rush or “catch and shoot”. His 2-way game has really improved this season but if his shot is NHL ready is his overall game RBA-ready?? I don’t know about that, but as a LW sniper when I watch him play he is no Jeff Skinner, which I mean as a good thing BTW.
1) The organization is developing some talented players in Charlotte. If I think about all the additions that are made every year (as opposed to thinking just about a Kessel or Duchene type), there are almost as many that don’t help (James Neal, Tatar to Vegas) as there are that raise the team to a different level. Players stepping in after some success in the AHL (Kapanen, Johnsson, and Cirelli last year; DeBrusk and Bertuzzi the year before) seems close as a successful strategy. There are two big advantages to bringing up players: most are significantly better the second year so the team will improve again; the return for a player who is modestly successful in the NHL is much higher than for even the best AHL prospect–maybe the Canes could have got Neiderreiter for Necas.
2) The only trade I see as being successful is not going to sit well with others. Due to contracts it would need to be Slavin or Pesce. Given that Pesce flourished on the left, Slavin likely has the best combination of value and redundancy (with Fleury, Bean, and Sellgren in the pipeline the Canes are actually much deeper on the left; if Martin doesn’t pan out the right D consists entirely of McKeown).
If Florida signs Panarin, then Trocheck or Huberdeau might be available. Both would be huge adds on the power play. Kyle Connor might be available. Those type of players would require Slavin/Pesce. I don’t support that and I don’t think many do.
Last off-season, we traded away Skinner, Lindholm, and Kruger and then elected not to re-sign Stempniak, Ryan, Nordstrom, and Jooris (7 players). We obtained via trade Martinook, Ferland, and McKegg, and signed Saku as a UFA (4 players).
I have two points here: first, when you look at who left vs. who came in, the general consensus was that we actually had less offense than when we started; and second, no one talked about any of Martinook, Ferland, or McKegg as targets and yet they all ended up being very useful players without being “brand names” or “targeted” players. That leads me to believe that team construction and “fit” and playing to your identity are far more important than we realize. So as to distributor or finisher, I’ll take another hard-to-play-against player who’s an aggressive, physical forechecker and take my chances on what comes from that.
There are players out there this year we’re just not paying attention to them or looking at them the right way. I have no idea who those players are but I know they exist, and I doubt any of them are actually RNH or Duchene or Kevin Hayes, etc. Shiny objects like Skinner are always seductive targets but moves like that rarely pay off. I would avoid all shiny objects at all costs.
I have no doubt that our core young players – Aho, TT, Svetch, Foegele, Wallmark even McGinn – will collectively score more next season. I also know that we won’t re-sign every UFA/RFA and there will be room for at least 1-2 more players to join the roster from CLT. Is that enough to take the next leg up? I don’t know. Maybe, if we get the right new players.
What would I do? Something like Fleury for Puljujärvi (as the main pieces) is the kind of move that makes way more sense to me. CGY would probably pay us to take James Neal; is he really finished? Alex Wennberg – what really happened there?
And then there are all the teams like WIN, NSH, VGS, SJO, TBY, WAS, PIT, DAL, etc., many of them who’ll need to make more than minor tweaks to take the next step. Could we shake Kevin Lebanc out of SJO? Or William Karlsson out of VGS? Or Alex Killorn out of TBY? Or Mathieu Perreault out of WIN?
We’re going to have a lot of options – we have a deep pool of prospects and plenty of picks and good roster players – and now there’s no doubt we are a more reasonable playing destination. I can’t wait to see what happens.
One minor correction – we traded Jooris to the PIT organization for McKegg at the deadline; probably RF’s best trade in his career as GM. 🙂
CT’s proposed trades are interesting and he is correct – the proposed trades don’t sit well with me. Interesting to consider though.
My preference is to grow from within if possible, and only sign and/or trade if they are a sure thing, on ice and off. Promotions are a bargain from a contract perspective, and they motivate every single player at the AHL level. Geekie has blossomed over the course of the season. Geekie, Necas, Potsy, and a couple others may be ready to step up into a playmaking role next year. An open competition where the best player(s) get promoted motivates every player.
A deep and successful playoff run by the Checkers (despite the heart breaking OT loss last night) would help even more.
At the end of the day… like last year… a signing, a promotion (or two or three), a good draft, and the right trade are the best mix for now and the future. Last year we signed a D man (deHaan) and a goalie (Mrzak), perhaps this is the year of the forward signing.
As context I go back to what RBA said on Monday – he didn’t think he could get more out of the team as constituted and the team needs to get better (of course he then said he wants the team to stay together).
And I think LTS was right yesterday – it all starts with Faulk, and the impact of re-signing him will have on cap space in 2020 and beyond. Look at the state of the Oilers carrying the contracts of McDavid and Draisaitl.
Raleigh may be becoming a team that UFAs want to come to because of this past season, but that doesn’t mean that big names will take discounts to be here. I actually think the big names could be disruptive to the chemistry of the team, nevermind that I think Waddell is too smart to throw “silly money” at big name UFAs.
I identify a lot with the players in CLT and I would love to see a number of them – Necas, Potsy, Saarela, Geekie, Gauthier, Kuokkanen – get their chance, but that is not realistic. So that I think that other than Necas, it is more likely that a player like Brown or Bishop, who play RBA’s style of game, will get a legitimate shot. The only young CLT player who fits RBA’s mold is Roy.
I think Waddell has shown himself to be the type that does not go trade-crazy. He is no longer motivated to make chemistry-based trades (Skinner and the Calgary trades) but will make specific trades that will look to make the team better in specific ways. I expect we will see a couple of new mid-6veteran forwards, plus spots open for at most two from CLT.
Typical of the fancy stats fanalysts, I see that most on this site are bemoaning the “need” for a “scoring catalyst”. And who is at the top of the list of preferred acquisitions? The well-traveled Matt Duchene. This guy puts a few pucks past some goalkeepers and he is a savior.
Let’s look at a few things. The Avs were not doing well when Joe Sakic found a chump in Pierre Dorien who was willing to give away a king’s ransom to get Duchene. From the very first game after he left, the Avs got better (they started winning and scoring goals). One might expect that this savior scoring catalyst would have improved things for his new team. Not so. The Sens seemed to get worse.
Arguably, he didn’t save the fortunes of the Blue Jackets either. And if he is such a savior, why do teams keep getting rid of him?
Let’s look at the big picture. Yes, we might need a center. We have several centers on our team as well as in our system. Why spend assets to get a new one? Why overpay for a UFA?
If we must do either, let’s get what we need. A large, hitting, mean center. Brian Boyle. Jason Spezza, Ryan Getzlaf, Jeff Carter, Nazem Kadri, and Artem Anisimov come to mind. But then more importantly, we need to replace Michael Ferland. We need his ability to hit like a train. But we also need his ability as well as willingness to fight. We have a few who can fight (certainly not Svech), but none as effective or feared as Michael. Milan Lucic, Patrick Maroon, Dion Phaneuf and Darren Archibald come to my mind.
Our system is replete with undersized scorers. We need them. But we need people who will and can protect them. Might this be the issue that is behind Willy’s refusal to commit to another year here?
I think so.
We should make every attempt to resign Ferland. He said he wanted to be here.
If Williams retires and then I think the team HAS to be more aggressive in the offseason (especially with loss of Ferland as well).
The injuries to deHaan and TVR certainly give some pause about trading a D this offseason, and perhaps that means Canes will be more active in free agency. If the Canes do look to make a trade, I think they should consider parting with this year’s 1st rd pick because they have 3 second rd picks, including 2 high ones from BUF and NYR. There’s statistically no difference between the 29th pick and 36th pick, but dangling that 1st rd pick + a prospect (not Necas/Bean) could yield a top 6 forward with term.
I’m for promoting AHL talent that fits the NHL system. That said, some of the more deserving CLT talent may be better suited for boosting 3rd/4th line offense in 2019-20, and we already have an abundance of depth NHLers.
The biggest questions for me are Necas and Williams.
–Can Necas be a playmaking wing on the 2nd line? He does not fit a shutdown line w/Staal, and is definitely not a 4th line guy.
–And if Williams does not re-sign, do we use his slot on a veteran 2C to center two young wings in Necas/Svech?
Necas is currently playing on a line with Jurco (another skill player) on the other wing and Brown (a 2-way player who does the heavy lifting) in the middle. It is a very effective line – you have to see Necas’ pass to Brown for a goal while he was down the boards two nights ago to have a sense of what he can do there.
That was a Gretzeyesque pass. Gretzey ‘s saucer pass was pretty much unstoppable, especially with Kurri finishing.
1) I think both. We have some pretty good scoring potential from the AHL level. I could also see adding a proven high end forward. The forwards is the one place where I would consider a change. I do not agree with tradings D. There is zero reason to do that. If we go for a forward, go UFA.
2) high end forward. No need for modest cost stuff, we have plenty of guys coming who will only get better. These guys are young and will get better.
This is a debatable topic because we may already have what we need in the system. Just my opinion, high end forward via UFA or nothing.
Phenomenal to see so many still so engaged in Canes hockey at the front part of the off-season.
It is also phenomenal to be debating how to “improve” a pretty good team instead of debating how to “fix” a broken one.
Yes sir Matt it is a fun time to be a canes fan. I was happily surprised to see contributions to yesterday’s thread well into the night.
Here’s a recent arrival on player peak ages.
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.2646054
Let’s hope our GM can pull another rabbit or two out of his hat. There are definitely some good players out there that had down years because of injuries or other reasons that could rebound (Spezza, Jeff Carter, Toffoli, Robby Fabbri, etc.). We certainly could use some more right-handed players especially if Williams doesn’t return. An experienced right-handed center that could also help on the power-play would be welcomed.
I think team chemistry is the most important factor. I agree with the poster above that was worried about a big name coming in. Unless that person has the right character, all our success could be lost. The shiny things aren’t worth it. That’s why I would rather build from within… Or at least make character be the shiny thing we are looking for.
Well, you know what they say…GO BIG, OR GO HOME…
I think we should sign the BREAD-MAN get Panarin!
Why fool around with some minor changes? Get a game changer!