If you have not read it already, check out also Brandon Stanley’s latest Charlotte Checkers’ players assessments for Roland McKeown, Alex Nedeljkovic and Martin Necas.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe catches up on a couple transactions and another potentially newsworthy event.
Anton Forsberg arbitration ruling
On Tuesday, the arbitration ruling came down for goalie Anton Forsberg. The team offered a two-way contract, but Forsberg’s camp won big time with a one-year, one-way contract for $775,000. The amount of money is manageable, but the result is still a negative for the team. As a player who slots fourth on the goalie depth chart and almost certainly destined for the AHL, the team will now be out an additional $700,000-ish compared to an AHL salary if he spends the entire season in the AHL.
The situation is unfortunate, but I doubt there is much that the Hurricanes could have done to avoid it. The Hurricanes were not going to offer a one-way contract or any kind of sizable middle ground with a high AHL guarantee. And on Forsberg’s side, it completely makes sense to roll the dice on the randomness of arbitration rulings hoping to win. And they did. So while the situation is unfortunate, it likely was also unavoidable.
The result is yet another poster child for the sometimes randomness of the arbitration process and how it can be out of touch with what makes sense. I do not doubt that there is some kind of logical case for the ruling. The arbitrators are professionals at considering comparables and other data to arrive at a ‘fair’ salary. But the ruling misses the boat on the reality of Forsberg’s market value and situation. As a player who did not play at the NHL level in 2018-19 and struggled the last time he did in 2017-18, Forsberg would not have received a one-way contract from any other team had he been an unrestricted free agent. So sticking the Hurricanes with a one-way contract makes no sense. Further, the waivers process is appropriately put in place to handle situations like this. If another team was willing to utilize Forsberg at the NHL level, that team could claim Forsberg off of waivers at the start of the season.
In terms of what this means going forward, I do not think it significantly changes the Hurricanes goalie situation. I still like Forsberg as a good option for depth at a critical position, but if given the choice I would pass on paying a $775,000 salary for this depth. Put another way, I think the Hurricanes would now be happy to trade Forsberg if given the opportunity. But as a said above, Forsberg does not enter the 2019-20 season as a goalie likely to win an NHL slot to start the season, so I would be surprised if the Canes can unload him. Instead, I think the Hurricanes just added $700,000-ish to their cost structure for the 2019-20 season.
Trevor Carrick traded for defenseman Kyle Wood
Also this week, the Hurricanes announced that the team had traded veteran AHL defenseman Trevor Carrick for defenseman Kyle Wood.
I said the following about the deal on Twitter shortly after it was announced:
1/3 First and foremost, very happy for Trevor Carrick getting a start with a new organization. He has done the work/checked the boxes at the AHL level and deserves a chance that he was not going to get with #Canes. https://t.co/vbu9TmHldp
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) August 6, 2019
2/3 Kyle Wood replaces Carrick as veteran AHL defenseman. He also slots better as a right shot where #Canes depth chart is not quite as deep.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) August 6, 2019
3/3 Couple other wild cards…Team needs to transition leadership at AHL level. Not sure if Wood factors there. Depending on what Carrick's AHL salary comes in at, this could be another of recent small steps to control costs at AHL level.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) August 6, 2019
My assessment of Trevor Carrick is that he is a good AHL defenseman but just not a regular NHLer. But for players who have done the work to play their way up to the top of the AHL level, I really think they at least deserve a chance at the NHL level. In an organization with a deep depth chart on the blue line and that has seemingly also decided he is not an NHLer at least with the Hurricanes, Carrick was never going to get that chance. The situation is not such that San Jose is a rebuilding organization where Carrick will automatically push up onto the NHL roster, but I still think he is better off with a change of scenery. For a mid-round draft pick who earned his way to the top of the AHL level, good for him, and I hope he gets his chance.
The return is a good one at least in terms of needs/fit. Kyle Wood is similarly an experienced AHL defenseman, so he roughly fills the slot departed by Carrick. As a right shot, Wood also balances the blue line better with the team having an overstock of left shot defensemen.
It will partly depend on what Carrick’s salary is (he is unsigned), but this move will likely prove to be another round of modest cost-cutting at the AHL level. Wood will earn a modest $70,000. My wild guess is that Carrick will net a bit of a veteran premium over that.
The big question for me is if Wood fits into the leadership structure for the Checkers. The team has lost a number of veteran players over the past couple years. Wood wore an ‘A’ in the San Jose organization, so it is possible that he takes a leadership role with the Checkers. Regardless, the team will need to start anew in terms of leadership with the departure of captain Patrick Brown, alternate captain Trevor Carrick and also other veteran players.
Slighted again by the national television schedule
As has been the case for a decade now (actually longer), the Hurricanes were mostly overlooked when NBC put together its national broadcast schedule. The Hurricanes have only one game on the schedule in March.
With Tom Dundon’s purchase of the team a year and a half ago, Canes fans no longer have to go through the ‘is the team moving?’ rite of passage that was an August staple for many years. But the ‘why didn’t we get more national games?’ rite of passage pushes forward stronger than ever. With a decade of playoff misses, fans could hardly fault NBC for mostly passing on Canes games. But with the run to the Eastern Conference Finals, many fans seemed to expect more inclusion on national television. But I think that expectation misses how national NHL coverage works. Games are not rewarded at all based on merit. Games are awarded based on audience size and the TV business. The Canes playoff run changed very little in terms of NHL television demographics. The big markets still represent larger audiences in the match up cities but maybe equally importantly claim a higher viewer share across the United States. So the national television appearances are not a function of merit but rather NBC’s business model for its NHL coverage.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on Anton Forsberg’s arbitration hearing? Do you think his one-way contract in any way affects the depth chart or usage for the Carolina Hurricanes goalies?
2) What are your thoughts on the Trevor Carrick trade? Does anyone have enough insight into the Checkers to have a hunch for what they do leadership-wise for the 2019-20 season?
3) Does the lone national television appearance bother you?
Go Canes!
The issue with games on national TV is irritating; a bigger factor than market size is that NBC owns affiliates in ~7-8 of the major US cities. Some of them, like Philadelphia, don’t deserve the coverage based on the team but do based on the business of NBC. We could win the Cup and that still would only change around the margins.
1. In the end I am not surprised that Forsberg got a one-way. He had one full season in the NHL but a number of years bouncing back and forth between the leagues. In a different organization he might even be the putative backup. But the arbiter is not arbitrary – they use comparables in their decision making process and the respective parties have to find their comparables and make the argument that they apply. Who knows who the respective comps were – it’s clear the Forsberg team made the better argument.
Going to arbitration (and winning) may create some ill will for Anton around the club (but not the players), fans and media. But so be it.
I don’t think it changes the goalie situation at all – he will just get paid more for being in CLT.
2. This trade works for both sides. Trevor reached his max with the Hurricanes organization and was starting to slip back. Waddell made the point that Wood is younger – we are replacing a veteran AHLer with a younger D-man still developing.
I hope Trevor gets a legit chance with the Sharks – but can he legitimately compete with the left side of the Sharks blueline and what are their AHL prospects like?
I have to think the Sharks like something they see in Carrick to part with a RHD (even though they appear to be stacked on the right).
3. I hear the Canes fans and media both boo-hoo’ing a single nationally televised game. But this is all about the Benjamins. The Hurricanes do not have a national audience. They are not “America’s Team” – which is how Atlanta was able to fashion itself to get national following in baseball (which was more than helped by Turner owning the network and broadcasting Braves games nationally).
The Hurricanes had to prove they belonged in the playoffs by winning. The Hurricanes have to prove they deserve to be on national television by bringing marketshare.
I do think the Forsberg ruling will encourage a goalie trade some time before January. Once the Canes figure out who they are going with someone not named Ned will go.
AHL defenseman trade. Meh.
When the Canes start driving TV ratings they will get more national games. Until then….nada. I like John and Tripp just fine anyway.
1) Mine are a little different. As tj mentions both sides present their case. The Forsberg hearing was in the middle of the Waddell news. My guess is the organization didn’t present a strong case.
2) The Checkers need a right-shot, right-side D. This trade addresses that with a big body who has good AHL numbers.
3) Agree with tj and lts. The NHL isn’t a big draw to begin, so until the Canes are able to bring in viewers in some other markets they won’t get games.
I think Matt hits on a salient point – Forsberg wouldn’t have gotten that contract from any of the 30 other NHL clubs. During his only real audition at the NHL level he was pretty pedestrian, or even a little less. One of Forsberg or Reimer will be gone by Xmas.
I was a big Trevor Carrick fan even with his flaws. He was gritty, would drop the gloves, and had a big, booming point shot. However, his skating could be generously termed as average and his hockey sense was often called into question. He’s the definition of a AAAA player, at least here. There may be some clubs where he could slot in as a 6/7 guy, but who knows. San Jose did give him a 2 year, 2 way contract with a $300K/$350K guarantee. That smells of veteran leader guy at the AHL level.
I agree with what has been said. We just don’t bring the national TV audience. But some of that is self-fulfilling prophecy. NBC played up the Bunch of Jerks/Storm Surge thing during the Cup run and that’s some marketing savvy that could have been built upon. HOwever it is up to the team to win more games and continue being relevant year in and year out. Until then, we’ll be an afterthought.
Your assessment about the Forsberg thing is spot-on. On the FA market, it is unlikely he would have gotten a one-way contract. In effect, the arbitrator awarded him an NHL contract.
From my understanding, someone in Charlotte was the one who recommending targeting Forsberg in a trade. Not sure where I heard that, but that “seems” like something I heard. It has been a few years since he played significant NHL-level games, and that was more due to the position being somewhat depleted due to injuries at the time. Unless there is an injury to Crawford or Lehner, he wouldn’t have seen much (if any) NHL time had he stayed in Chicago.
Anyway, he might be NHL material some day, but not enough to warrant a one-way contract at this time. Would have rather seen him get the money he was looking for (on the NHL level) on a two-way contract than get a one-way.
2) Not much thoughts on Kyle Wood, except he is big. Will be interesting to see how he develops.
3) The lone television appearance bothers me ONLY because the Canes do play the big market teams too. The Canes could appear more as the opponent of the “larger market” teams. Would have thought the success of the Canes last year would have warranted at least two, if not three appearances. Completely understand the reasons for programming decisions, but many of the teams that appeared more often were pretty crappy (and this was not the first year). For example, what were the total number of appearances of the non-playoff teams last year?