The honeymoon from January through April of 2018
The change in ownership last January ushered in a new era in Carolina Hurricanes hockey. The change was not just lip service as February kicked off with some generous and somewhat controversial ticket promotions. Then after the season concluded the changeover organizationally was even more striking. Before season ended Ron Francis was sent to some random mail room job initially and then ousted altogether a bit later.
But on the ice and in the standings nothing changed instantly when Dundon took over. The team still entered January with a deficit. The team still pushed a bit to nearly climb back into in February before floundering and withdrawing from the playoff hunt. Then from life support, the team rose up in March for its usual ‘too little too late’ push.
So though there were some fast changes and reasons for hope, the trajectory of last January through April were painfully familiar to Canes fans who had tracked the team in years prior.
Fast out of the gate for the new era with Rod Brind’Amour
Once the season ended, out was Bill Peters and in was rookie head coach Rod Brind’Amour. Long-time star Jeff Skinner was jettisoned for only prospects. Justin Williams was named the new captain. And the roster changeover was pretty significant.
And preseason yielded a first glimpse and a tremendous one at that of what this new era of Hurricanes hockey was supposed to look like under Rod Brind’Amour. The team stormed through preseason taking no prisoners and playing a suffocating brand of hockey with a forecheck on steroids and pace to boot. And for those who shrugged it off as preseason, the Hurricanes were able to carry the momentum into the regular season. The team surged early, won in the same way it did in preseason and launched to the top of the standings.
A relapse to the bad version of normal
But the surge was short-lived. The team played its way back to the middle by the end of November and then plummeted in December. What seemed like something new and different was suddenly all too familiar again with the team entering January trying to climb out of a hole dug during the first half of the season.
With a cast of characters that includes AHL call ups Greg McKegg and Saku Maenalanen, the Hurricanes surged again and climbed nearly back to the playoff cut line in January, and the winning ways have continued into February. When the Hurricanes start a short burst of three home games in four nights, the team will be only three points out of a playoff spot and very much back in the hunt.
Trying to avoid a familiar path
Mostly Canes fans talk about digging holes in the front part of the season and then not being able to overcome them. That part of the story is entirely true. But for me what is even more interesting has been the team’s repeat ability to surge and play its way to within reach of the playoffs and then seem to bounce off some kind of ceiling and crash back down the standings.
In this vein, the Hurricanes in recent years have played some of their worst hockey leading up to the trade deadline often right after the latest mini-surge.
2015-16
The Hurricanes played four out of five games at home leading up to the 2016 NHL trade deadline and lost four out of five of those games.
2016-17
The Hurricanes stumbled to a 1-3-1 record leading up to the 2017 NHL trade deadline. The team also lost the two games prior to that for a nasty 1-5-1 skid leading into the deadline.
2017-18
The Canes posted a miserable 0-4-1 record leading into the trade deadline and putting multiple nails in the coffin of the 2017-18 season.
In all three cases, the team rebounded seemingly once the pressure was off and the team had nothing to lose. But for many fans who have been through the thick and thin, the March ‘too little too late’ rallies are some painfully weird mix of reprieve down the stretch and salt in open wounds.
The road ahead
Here we sit with ten days and five games to go before the 2019 NHL trade deadline. The team is still in the mix at three points back back with little room for error.
The vibe and trajectory for actual results are both incredibly positive right now. But those who have tracked the team and have a good memory know that even amidst the wreckage in the past few years there have always been bursts of production and reason for hope only to have it crushed under the weight of a pre-trade deadline swoon.
In addition, the coach, captain and a significant part of the roster are now.
One can legitimately find reasons why things will be different this time, but the question is, “Will it?”
The slate ahead features three straight home games against the Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars and New York Rangers. Then the run of games ends with road match ups against the Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars.
With only 25 games remaining, the team needs to be rising not falling heading into late February.
Can it? Will it?
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you make of the team’s 2-11-2 mark heading into the trade deadline over the past three years? Is it just random coincidence or is there something with the pressure, the time of year, an inability to keep the pedal down or something else that causes this to recur?
2) What is your prediction for the next five games? More rising? Or another painful fall?
Go Canes!
I think at this point, the past trends are a bit irrelevant to this team. There are so many new players, new coach, new owner, new captain. Aho is playing at an elite level. I do think the pressure of the deadline affected Canes in the past. These teams seemed to be emotionally fragile – and you’d even hear Forslund and others mention that as a concern.
Canes need to win 4 of next 5, especially because the schedule gets tougher in March. This team seems resilient and I think that’s a reflection of Williams as captain and RBA as coach, but also more faith in goaltending and a bottom six filled with guys (Martinook, Foegele, McKegg, etc) that play with intensity that permeates through the lineup.
1) Lack of seasoned talent. The past three seasons the Canes didn’t have anyone to take over a game in critical situations -remember other teams understand the importance of games in February, so they are playing focused hockey. In those situations it is important to have a dominant player. Skinner could be a difference maker but only by scoring. Aho, and Teravainen to some extent, can change a game through scoring, passing, even defensively. As darth pointed out others like Martinook, McKegg, and the top D men can energize the team. That wasn’t true to any significant extent before this season.
2) Glad I don’t live in Raleigh. The storm will be surging through Tuesday night.
Proof will be in the pudding this next stretch of games. To others points, I don’t think we can say those teams of the past were able to roll 4 lines like we can now. Our defense moves the puck well and has grown up a bit. Goaltending has been a notch better this year, too, and the team overall has more reliable spark plugs. All signs point up.
There are only 5 players on this team that played any games for the 2015-16 Canes (Faulk, Staal, Slavin, Pesce, and McGinn, and the last three were rookies) so I don’t think there’s too much “institutional memory” of that swoon, though I do think the ghost of it still remains.
This season is going to be different. We’ll collect at least another 7 points over these 5 games and stay right there in the mix.
Looking at the standings and the schedules of all the teams in the Metro, places #2-#5 could still finish in almost any order. We’re playing the best hockey of our season and better hockey than some of those other teams. It’s actually not irrational to think that our ultimate seeding will be higher when the dust settles in April.
1) this question has troubled me in past seasons. Why did the canes suddenly flop when they bounced up against the last playoff spot? Was it intentional, ie max salary for minimum exposure to injury or replacement? Could the team avoid rebuild / trade / dump / high draft picks and keep the core together for a long run always one spot out of the playoffs?
While considering these options I am reminded of Hanlon’s Razor: “never attribute to conspiracy that which is adequately explained by incompetence.” And Occam’s Razor: “The simplest explanation is usually correct.”
The team was mediocre. We moved up in the standings when playing against a steady diet of back-up goalies and call-ups. How many backups got their first shutout or scored their first NHL goal against the Hurricanes? Probably a league leading stat over the last nine years. As soon as we bumped up against a playoff spot, we’d see the starting goalie and get our opponents best. Directionally / statistically speaking.
This year is different. RBA and company have molded a team in RBAs image, where every player is expected to be at their best all of the time. For the first time in year’s I see the same effort on both nights of a back-to-back. This is a completely different team in its approach to the game.
2) Aa result the February curse is over. Of course there will be some losses along the way but the effort will be there every night and we’ll continue to bring home 6-8 points out of 10 possible in 5 game segments.
Compared to Karmanos/Francis era the patience with losing seems like ancient history. It is hard for me to see this team effected by that mentality any longer. However, the ability to find the higher gear needed to impose one’s will in critical junctures on the opponent is not yet here. To my count this team has failed to win 6 games where 2 points would have put them in a playoff position. In reality the Canes are playing playoff hockey trailing the opponent by a game in the fifth game of a 7 game series. We need to demonstrate for the first time the “killer instinct” playoff teams need.
surgalt got it exactly right.
The team is different but the challenge remains.
The canes have stumbled every time they have been able to play their way into playoff position since November.
You can’t win them all, but the team has not handled playing under the weight of expectations very well so far. I am hoping the team can at least tread water with 6/10 points in the next 5, I think expecting better is optimistic.
It’s been a tough schedule and I am concerned tonight the team may let the collective feet of the gas, hopefully not.
The recent run in January and February to date has been excellent….even reminiscent of better times (2008-2009, cough, cough). I believe that with a tweak or two this team can continue to push for the playoffs. But make no mistake, March doesn’t just get harder. March is brutal opponent-wise. Since the 7th of the month, the only playoff team we will face is Dallas (tonight and then a week from now). When the calendar turns, we’ll be playing at least 12 of our 16 games against teams currently in playoff position. Some of those teams are on the bubble. Each night, we will get our opponent’s best. To quote our unofficial human mascot, “…to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man….”. Rick Flair speaks the truth.
We shouldn’t want it any different. Realistically, we probably need 30-32 points to ensure a playoff spot. That’s the equivalent of 15-16 victories….out of the remaining 24 games.