In the span of a week, the Carolina Hurricanes drafted 12 players, completed two trades bought out a player, made three trades and parted ways with Charlotte Checkers Head Coach and Assistant General Manager Mike Vellucci.
That is quite a week.
If you were away, here is a clickable menu to catch up:
High level thoughts on the Carolina Hurricanes 2019 NHL draft
Today’s extra Saturday Daily Cup of Joe offers a primer on what could potentially be the next burst of activity when free agency opens for the NHL on July.
The ‘insiders’ lack of legitimate information
The Hurricanes have received more than their fair share of attention from the broader hockey media. For a short stretch, the rumors and rumblings seemed to focus on the Hurricanes potentially trading Brett Pesce. That seems to have faded away. More recently, the rumblings have offered a bizarre range of facts (suggesting most of it cannot be true because of the level of conflict) considering the Hurricanes negotiations with Sebastian Aho. Though I am on record as thinking it makes no sense, the flavor of the week lately has been the potential of an offer sheet for Sebastian Aho.
But amidst the significant volume of rumors related to the Hurricanes, I do not recall seeing a single thing on a trade for Patrick Marleau, the Calvin de Haan deal or the trade for Erik Haula. There have been a few comments suggesting that the insiders knew about these things, but that seems odd given that they spend chunk of days spewing out potential deals. I guess they just forgot to mention these?
I think the upshot is that I think the secrecy around the Hurricanes from Ron Francis’ brief Fort Knox era seems to have carried forward into the Don Waddell/Tom Dundon era.
That is something to consider over the next few days. Until the NHL insiders build some kind of track record that suggests they do have sources and a read on the Hurricanes dealings, I think best is to assume that they do not.
The work yet to be done for the Hurricanes
1) In goal — Add a #1 or #1A goalie
As I wrote previously, the move to add Anton Forsberg (who I figure to be #3/AHL depth) seems to suggest that Alex Nedeljkovic will be one of the two Hurricanes goalies come opening day. The burning question is who will be the second goalie. I am on record as thinking that Petr Mrazek is much more likely to be re-signed than some think. But there are also multiple other options.
I addressed the goalie situation HERE.
I think there are three different plays here. Simplest and I think most likely is that the Hurricanes come to agreement with Mrazek after he had a few days to explore options with other teams.
A second play would be that the team has targeted another free agent or trade option. That ball comes into play once free agency opens.
Finally, I think considering how last summer went down could be relevant. Last summer, the Hurricanes did not act quickly and/or aggressively to ‘go get their guy.’ Rather, the Hurricanes seemed to content patiently shop for value. The result was a risky, bargain basement one-year deal for $1.5 million for Petr Mrazek. If the Hurricanes do not get Mrazek and do not see any of the other options as being significantly superior to the others, do they just wait it out for a bargain? Is it possible that the team believes that the improved defense last year was more the team defense than the goaltending? That could also suggest waiting. If the Hurricanes do go that route, it will be a white knuckler for the fan base especially if Mrazek signs elsewhere.
2) At forward — Is there one more move on the way? And how big is it?
As of right now, the Hurricanes are down Micheal Ferland and possibly Justin Williams but have added Erik Haula.
My deep dive slotting the team’s forwards wanted one more higher-end playmaker.
It is not clear if the Hurricanes view Haula as that player or possibly just have a different ‘needs list’. I am record as believing that Haula is a good addition if he gets back up to speed after his injury, but at the same time I still think ideal would be to add one more player capable of being a catalyst for a second scoring line.
I had Paul Stastny on a want list, but with Vegas making two other moves to reduce their salary commitments, he is now much less likely to be available in the sell-off. I similarly think that Joe Pavelski for two years at market price would be a great upgrade and bridge to the future at the same time. He too is likely not available. And I do not see the Hurricanes taking a run at the premium free agents Matt Duchene and Artemi Panarin. So the question is what management still sees as a need at forward and who might be available to fill that need.
3) On defense — Should be ready to go
With the trade of Calvin de Haan and the addition of depth defenseman Gustav Forsling in that deal, the Hurricanes figure to be set on defense with a top 4 in place and Bean, Fleury and Forsling available to compete for the two third pairing slots. I could see adding another fringe AHL/NHL depth defenseman on a two-way contract and slotted for Charlotte, but I think more likely is that the Hurricanes enter the regular season with the current group on defense.
4) Oh and Sebastian Aho…
I list him fourth on this list only because I think the offer sheet theories are contrived.
An offer sheet only makes sense if a GM believes that team will not or cannot match. Otherwise you are mostly just risking making enemies with no results (which is why they are so rare).
Sebastian Aho is NOT a situation where @NHLCanes cannot or will not match. https://t.co/lC9HAW4oDO
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 25, 2019
And I also picked my date in the Sebastian Aho re-signing pool earlier this week.
$20 says @NHLCanes announce Sebastian Aho signing at 'State of the Canes' address before Red/White scrimmage to wrap up prospect camp on Saturday. #TakeWarning
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 27, 2019
What say you Canes fans?
1) What, if anything, do you still see as the Hurricanes’ needs at forward, goalie and defenseman respectively?
2) Who would you target in free agent or in trade to fill these needs?
Go Canes!
Unless another team needs to dump salary, I don’t see the Canes doing much other than signing a goalie. I think they will lean on Williams later in the summer and he will return. Aho will eventually sign, and they will leave a spot open for Necas to take, if he’s able.
I also believe the whole offer sheet thing is contrived by a hockey media looking for more things to talk about. I’m sure Waddell isn’t worried because it’s highly unlikely, and if it does happen Dundon would have to match it making Waddell’s life much easier.
The whole “insider” thing is also contrived. Rutherford talks to these media guys, but he is just as likely to lie to them as to give them any real information. He would tell them stuff to stir up the issues he wanted to stir up. Francis did not play that game. The other reality is that North Carolina is not a top NHL market and the national guys really only care about what happens here in relation to how it effects the big markets that drive their business.
The hour between 12-1:00pm on July 1 is always a good time even if the bell never seems to ring with a Canes signing – I can’t imagine that this year will be any different.
The Haula trade netted us a very nice player with real upside at the expense of a prospect and a pick – things we have plenty of. We are much stronger than we were after this trade even if we have the player just for a one year tryout. I’d like to see another one of those type of trades but at a higher decibel level (ie., better player, better prospect/higher pick); then we can be done.
My prediction is we re-sign Mrazek at 3 x $3.5 on Tuesday.
Goaltending should be priority #1 and is probably the position easier to read at this point based on known availability:
–For starters, many feel Scott Darling is expected to be bought out.
–If there is a deal for Mrazek at 2yrs/4mil I’d be happy with that. He may not be the best tutor for Ned, but we don’t have a lot of choices either. Anything longer term does not align with organizational plans.
–If Mrazek and the team cannot come to terms, my guess is the team obtains a veteran on a 1yr deal (Anderson via trade from OTT who has a year left, or Mike Smith via free agency). Both can carry the load for a year even at their ages.
–I’d absolutely love to have Quick via trade to carry the load for a couple years while Ned eases in, but the years remaining on his deal might nix that potential and I think the team spends money on another forward.
Forward is priority #2 — too many scenarios to concoct, but still feel we pickup a top 6 forward, likely a 2C. Some will argue we just picked up Haula as a 3C, with Aho and Staal as 1C/2C. My point is that you can never have enough quality NHL centers. With the potential of Williams retiring, and after struggling late in the year against other top centers, Aho may be better utilized on the wing. We don’t need a flashy 1C, we need a stud on faceoffs who can play the middle, bang bodies and allow the wings to shine. Kadri may be the target, or someone similar who is under the radar that can play RBA style hockey.
If the team stopped right now they have downgraded on D, downgraded (somewhat) on offense and definitely downgraded in goal.
I don’t think they’re done.
I am hoping for one backup G and a top 6 forward, maybe a veteran D man on a one-year deal to help out back there.
Then we’ll roll the dice with the youth and hope for the best. The Canes could be eaten alive in the metro this year, it is shaping up to be vicious, or they can find a way and rise to the challenge. That’s what RBA is good at.
How have they downgraded on offense? They have added an experienced centreman in Huala. They are most likely losing Ferland who added next to nothing after the first of the year. I suppose you are assuming Williams isn’t coming back? I think he will, but could be wrong. Add in the progression of last year’s rookies, to say nothing of still young players like Aho and Teravainen, and the offense looks promising to me.
Yes, it’s assuming that neither JW nor Ferland will return and it’s only looking at current roster with last year’s potential.
Fortuantely, for the Canes, there is a lot of potentialsfor rookies taking the reigns and rising up, which is what I think the management is betting on (and given recent success at lower levels and that there are 5 or 6 players with legitimate shot at NHL potential it is not such a terrible bet).
I still want to see a definite upgrade from last year if possible, and I think it only takes another couple of clever under-the-radar signings, one at forwaard, one in goal + one of JW or Ferland coming back (of course we’d ideally have both back on very team friendly contracts, but I think that’s wishful thinking, not a real possibility).
Wonder if the Ducks’ old tough guy Perry might be a fit for the goon repellent if Ferland has priced himself out of contension.
“Dominoes” best explains the current situation in all of the possible moves in the NHL that might happen for the Canes. Starting with Ahp, whose signing will be part of a chain of signings of thel half dozen unsigned high profile RFAs, each wanting another to go first. Bobrovsky’s signing will begin the chain reaction for all the UFA goaltenders unckuding Mrazek, Similarly, Panarin will do the same for forwards. In the meantime the smoke making machine comprised of hockey writers who get paid by the internet hit (like Pierre LeBrun) will create fodder for clicks that pay their utility bills.
We still need to replace Michael Ferland. His deterrence to the goons in the NHL cannot be allowed to be absent.
I agree with less than about our scoring talent.
We need to be concerned about losing Willy’s leadership. This group needs him badly. So does Roddy.
There are so many moving parts to this organization that mere stats cannot capture.
We have two such moving parts to concern ourselves with. Bales and Velluchi have moved on. With whom will we replace them?
Didn’t Waddell say something about getting a FREE AGENT or two?
Was he referring to anybody in particular?
I’m not sure about the atmosphere of cheapness, which has been prevalent in the past, still in vogue! I doubt Panerin will be signed here, but more because of his wanting to be ON THE COAST…IE FLORIDA, OR NYC. Duchene could be a possibility IMO.
According to a WRAL newsstory:
https://www.wralsportsfan.com/mcelhinney-not-re-signing-with-the-canes/18482283/
Big Mac is not re-signing with the Canes but they expect to have Mrazek signed in a day or two.
Ok, recheck, James Reimer it is (for Scott Darling and a 6th).
Looks like “Reimer has 2 years left at 3.4 mill per
Darling has 4.1 mill next season, then 3 mill (cap hit is 4150000 both years).
Looks like the Canes save 300K in actual money over the next 2 years and 850K cap space (X 2).
This is based on quick Googling so could well be wrong.
Cheers to the Canes management for doing practically the impossible, moving Darling for a player the Canes may actually need.
Reimer struggled last year so it’s a bit scary, but Darling was an absolute no go.
People are saying that Reimer shouldn’t unpack his bags. More moves are a-coming.
Donny and Tommy are just chock full of surprises. The moves all makes sense, but none of them have been predictable.
It’s like reading a great novel, full of plot twists and turns.
Unlike some, I don’t see any cheapness to the motivation. Rather, I see careful planning and making opportunistic decisions. This offseason is fun to watch for this long frustrated fan who has been conditioned to thinking cynically, “Oh boy. Mr. K will never spend to get what we need.”
Picking up Reimer gives us depth, and IF kept would make for a solid 1B. Also think there are more moves to be had. We all may be surprised.
Keep working the phones, Donnie! I love this guy.