Last week I posted sort of a part 1 for sorting out the goalie position for the Carolina Hurricanes. That article touched on some other things but primarily focused on the situation with Petr Mrazek and to some degree Curtis McElhinney and Alex Nedeljkovic.
If you missed it or want a refresher, you can find that article HERE.
The addition of Anton Forsberg
Since that article, nothing has really changed with Petr Mrazek or Curtis McElhinney who seem destined to at least test free agency on July 1. But the Hurricanes did add Anton Forsberg in yesterday’s trade with the Blackhawks.
If pressed, the team will probably make the standard statement about the best player getting ice time at the NHL level, but in terms of expectations, I do not believe the team intends for Forsberg to compete for an opening day NHL spot. Rather, Forsberg is a good addition as a #3 playing in the AHL. He is an experienced goalie at 26 years old and has a decent amount of NHL run time. That role makes a ton of sense for the Hurricanes. With rookie Alex Nedeljkovic seemingly slotted for the backup role at the NHL level, it is wise to have insurance type depth in case his transition to the NHL hits a bump in the road.
So I see Forsberg as being a regular in the AHL but also ready on call as a #3 with NHL experience in the event of injuries or if Nedeljkovic proves not ready yet.
I think the biggest upshot of the Forsberg addition is that it makes McElhinney even less likely to return. That is because adding another AHL/NHL fringe goalie suggests that the team does intend to go with Nedeljkovic as the backup. And with a rookie as the backup, the team would want a goalie capable of more starts than I think is reasonable for McElhinney at 36 years old. So there really is not a place right now that fits what McElhinney can do.
On Petr Mrazek as an option
This might sound odd, but I still think that Petr Mrazek is the odds on favorite to be the team’s starting goalie come early October. Yes, the two sides have temporarily parted ways negotiation-wise, but I think this is part of a logical path to Mrazek still returning. With Mrazek, there is nothing to indicate that the team does not want him to return. There is also nothing to indicate that he is not open to returning. The gap right now is financials. As I discussed in more detail in the earlier article, I think the Hurricanes see Mrazek as a great 1A/1B type commitment for that type of price and 2-3 years. That contract looks something like three years for $3-3.5 million per year. After a strong finish to the 2018-19 season and with unrestricted free agency as an option, I think Mrazek has some incentive to at least check if more of a #1 contract is out there for 4-5 years at $4-5 million per year. There is definitely a game of musical chairs set to begin in earnest on July 1, but my expectation is that other teams will see Mrazek similarly as either a premium backup or a capable 1A/1B on an appropriate contract. If I am correct that there is not a team willing to commit to Mrazek as a #1 longer-term and for more salary, I think the chances are good that the Hurricanes and Mrazek will reengage with a good chance of reaching a deal much closer to the team’s side of the initial divide.
Other options
As noted above, a game of musical chairs is about to ensue when free agency opens on July. In addition to Mrazek and McElhinney, the free agent group includes Sergei Bobrovsky as the headliner but also interesting options in Robin Lehner, Semyon Varlamov, Mike Smith and Cam Talbot. The pool could also be increased as the dominoes fall. If a team with a goalie goes big on Bobrovsky, that could free up another goalie via trade. In addition, the emergence of Jordan Binnington could make Jake Allen available from St. Louis, and if Florida wins the Sergei Bobrovsky bidding war, James Reimer could also become available.
Long story short, there are a decent number of goalie options available but also a nearly equal number of suitors such that the musical chairs comparison if pretty apropos.
Sergei Bobrovsky
I do not see it. Some team is going to take on massive risk with a long-term deal for maximum dollars on a goalie who will be 31 years old before the 2019-20 starts. I think the Hurricanes will rightfully steer clear of this.
Robin Lehner
Lehner is an inspirational story and had a strong 2018-19 season for an Islanders team that maybe overachieved a bit just like the Hurricanes. His contract situation is pretty similar to Mrazek’s. The Islanders want him back, but the question is at what salary and term. In terms of ranking goalies, he would be a decent option, but in terms of it making sense, I doubt there is a fit. For a shorter contract at a modest price, he likely stays with the Islanders, so the only way he lands with the Hurricanes is if they decide to stretch on price and term. That is pretty much the same situation they are currently in with Mrazek.
Semyon Varlamov
Varlamov has had his ups and downs with the Colorado Avalanche, but his ceiling is high and he is a legitimate NHL starter. With the Avs set to go with Grubauer and youth, Varlamov is clearly a goalie who will move. Varlamov is 31 years old but could be a good option for a couple years while the Hurricanes figure out if Nedeljkovic is ready and able.
Cam Talbot
Talbot is an interesting case. When the Oilers seemed to be rising, he was part of that rise. But as the wheels have come off in Edmonton, Talbot has mostly been snowed under too. He would be a rebound candidate for the 2019-20 season somewhat similar to Mrazek last summer. Talbot has proven capable of being a capable NHL starter but was not that in 2018-19. Also like Mrazek last summer, that likely affects his price. There is a bet to be made on whether he just needs a change of scenery and a better defense in front of him. He is most similar to Mrazek from last summer.
Mike Smith
Smith was at one time an above average NHL starter, but he struggled in 2018-19. He is 37 years old, so I think betting on a rebound is highly risky. I would pass.
Jake Allen
With Jordan Binnington now the #1 in St. Louis, Jake Allen is likely available. His $4.35 million salary cap hit for the next two years is a bit pricey, but the Blues might pick up part of the salary. Allen has been an NHL starter but lost his job in 2018-19. He is yet another who would be a bit of a rebound hope.
James Reimer
If the Florida Panthers win the Sergei Bobrovsky auction, that could make James Reimer available. Florida still needs a backup, so they might still keep Reimer. But with a true #1 in net, the Panthers might also look to drop Reimer’s $3.4 million cap hit for the next two years. Reimer had three straight pretty good seasons before dipping a bit in front of a Panthers team that struggled in 2018-19. He is yet another rebound target in the middle price tier.
The competition
There are other teams that could use a 1B/upgrade, but the teams that definitely need to add a goalie include the Hurricanes, Islanders, Panthers and Flames. Basic math says that there are enough goalies to go around but not a ton extra. The balance is such that there should be some jockeying for position but not so much an all out bidding war.
My 2 cents
I feel about like I did last summer. Other than Bobrovsky who I would pass on, none of the options (including Mrazek) make me so excited that I would go overboard prioritizing/winning them. The group is largely middle of the pack or slightly lower but with both upside and risk. After successfully navigating a dicey situation last summer, it seems unfair to be right back at the same tricky decision point, but it is what it is.
For three years and a 1A/1B type salary I like Mrazek mostly because he is a known quantity with a bit of momentum coming out of the 2018-19 season. I really think the odds of Mrazek returning are higher than most people think.
Lehner is as good or better but only if he would take a 1A/1B type salary which seems unlikely. Past that I think Talbot is interesting. I like the bet that he was more of a victim of a poor defense than a bad goalie. If that is correct and if the Hurricanes can match their 2018-19 defense without Calvin de Haan, Talbot could seemingly receive a nice bounce because of the defense in front of him.
What say you Canes fans?
1) How aggressive would you be (if at all) in retaining Petr Mrazek?
2) Past Mrazek, how would you prioritize the other options?
3) Are there any other options that you would add to my list above?
Go Canes!
I would be very aggressive in pursuing Pietr. I really like his style. I know. I know. His stats say this and his stats say that. But I am not a stats guy. As I watch this young man in goal I see an intensity unmatched by his peers. He talks to himself and other players after the whistle. In many ways, he reminds me of Dougie Favell and Roger Crozier. I know. That admission betrays my advanced age.
Pietr and Curtis were complementary opposites. The kids in front of them needed that. Sometimes it was good to have an excited intensity going on in the blue paint. Sometimes the guys needed to feed into the calm confidence of Curtis reassuring them. And Bales could be relied upon to sense what the boys needed on what night.
How would I prioritize our other options?
What other options?
I have always been intrigued by Malcolm Subban. He has never been a starter (but then, neither had Martin Gerber been a starter prior to 2005-06). But Malcolm came through for Vegas when they needed him most during their “goalie crisis”. He’s not as fiery as his brother, but maybe he’s fiery enough.
Limiting the term for Petr is critical because he has struggled with consistency in his career. 3 years should be the maximum. I doubt he would take 2 years. Loved what he did in the second half of the season, but his slow start gives me pause.
I’m not sure any of the other goalie options are great. There’s risk everywhere. I sort of lean towards Varlamov – or Reimer if he becomes available.
I’ll be happy if Mrazek is re-signed, just have my doubts for logistical reasons. I feel Mrazek would have been signed by now if the team felt he was the best 1A option. I think the delay may not be about money or term, but whether they feel a Mrazek/Ned pairing works from a chemistry perspective. The team is also trying to “win now” and not waste the quality years of its youthful core, which creates other factors for goaltending decisions.
Management probably sees Ned as the 1A heir, but everyone knows Ned will need time to ease into the mix (and let’s be honest, he has to earn it). Signing Mrazek to be a 1A this year, only to be a 1B in future years may not be what either side desires. The more I look at the bigger picture, the more I can see a deal with James Reimer making sense. Ned plays with some fire, so having a calmer Reimer at the helm to be that 1A for a year or less would balance the tandem. Reimer may also be more comfortable transitioning to a backup role if Ned makes his claim.
So if the team felt Ned was going to be “the man” sooner than later, I would see about a trade to obtain a veteran guy who is proven enough to carry the load short-term (Reimer, or even Anderson from OTT).
I agree with Matt that I believe we’re still in on a Petr Mrazek contract. He may get a better financial offer, but not one where he would have as solid of a chance to shine. In 3 years he’d only be 30 and could be set up to take an even bigger run at free agency.
Of the rest, I think Varlymov would be the safest bet with the most upside potential. However, he’s not likely to be very cheap. Last year was a bit of an anomaly for him and it either portends a continued decline or the potential for a bounce back. Still, he’s not going to want to take a discount from his nearly $6 million contract.
That really does leave a couple of reclamation projects – Cam Talbot, Keith Kinkaid, or potentially a trade for a Jake Allen or James Reimer. I’d likely make a run at Talbot too if Mrazek proves to be intractable. Kinkaid seems like a fall back position. Whomever we get we need somebody who will almost certainly be tasked with 50 games. I just don’t see Nedeljkovic stepping in to a full 1B role at the outset of the season.
Looking at the salary structure of the team, I think we’re looking at a budget of $4.5 million to $5 million allotted for the goaltender position. Ned or Forsberg make up about $1 million of that. So that means we’re looking for a guy at $3.5 million to $4 million. My guess is we could get Mrazek at $4 million for 4 or 5 years, but we only want to start with 3 or maybe even 2. Take a close look at our current salary structure. We’re going to spend close to the cap regardless. Adding an extra million or two in the net puts us in a difficult position…something that’s hard to believe for the budget-conscious Hurricanes.
Goalies are a tough call. It seems every year some superstar is inconsistent. Bob will probably be high priced but will he perform the next year. Even price was inconsistent. It’s kind of a crap shoot.
I fear more then 3 years for Mrazek. I am sure he wants more. I am fearful with term for any of these guys. I agree with Matts comments. I am glad I am not a GM because I do not know what is best here. I guess the good news is, there are options as thing unfold.
What I would like best is Mrazek because he is a know quantity to us. I believe with our team in front of them, most of these guys are options. I hated loosing de Hann. I am hoping one Fleury, Bean, Sellgren or Forsling can step in. It is good that the young guys have a slot to strive for.
Here are the basic stats of AHL goaltenders last season. https://www.quanthockey.com/ahl/en/seasons/2018-19-ahl-goalies-stats.html
Forsberg (Rockford Icehouse) played in 32 games, SV% .919, 2.54 GA.
Nedjelkovic (Charlotte Checkers) was in 51 games, SV% 916, 2.26 GA.
Team records:
The Icehogs won 35 games (16 in OT, lost 41 games (10 in OT) .526 point%
The Checkers won 51 games (9 in OT), lost 25 games (8 in OT) .724 point%
Tale of the tape:
Forsberg – 26 years old, 6’2′, 192lbs.
Nedjelkovic – 23 years old, 6’0″, 190lbs.
Hypothesis: The Canes scouting staff really like Forsberg. He played for an inferior AHL team yet accumulated superior AHL stats.
Disclaimer: In 2017-18 Forsberg played in 35 NHL games for the Blackhawks. His stats were pedestrian. However so were the Blackhawks who finished 13th in the western conference. There would be a lot of good film on Forsberg for the scouts and analytics to evaluate.
Our brain trust has done very well. I was not happy with the de Hann trade but your points are valid. We did not need the D so they must have thought highly of Forsberg. He belongs in this discussion also. There is no reason he could not win a position, and I am sure he will get the chance.
Like you, I disliked seeing deHaan leave. But no team can sustain cap compliance with $4.5million 3rd liners on defense over the long term without hitting pressures from overspending. Sometimes reality sucks.
I believe that Forsberg was specifically targeted by the Canes scouts based on an analytics evaluation that was very positive for the player. De Haan was the most dispensable asset that would get the trade done. ( He will likely be on the top pairing in Chicago.) Further my best guess is Forsberg is not here to be depth in Charlotte. He and Ned will be in a head to head contest to start the season in Raleigh. Further, they could be the starting pairing here if the dice roll on Mrazek comes up snake eyes.
I just want to make a point: CdH was not a 3rd-liner last year and has been at least a #4 in the recent past. I think the operating assumption is that he won’t come back from this injury at that level making him more expensive for his slot going forward. He earned every penny of his contract last season from my perspective.
Sort of in the same vein, Calvin de Haan did finish the season in a 3rd pairing role, but that is not the same as saying he is a 3rd pairing quality/level defenseman. It is just that the Hurricanes had 5 of those.
Also worth noting is that he was one of the drivers of stabilizing the defense early in the season. Coming off 2 ‘meh’ at best seasons defensively, Faulk rebounded strongly in 2018-19, and at least part of the credit has to go to de Haan who was his partner in the 1st half of the season.
So other than the injury risk/issue, de Haan both entered and exited as a solid, steady 2nd pairing/top 4 defenseman.
Given the inconsistency of goalies I’d say that Ned and Forsberg could be the goalie duo to start, unless the cAnes can engineer a DArling for Anderson swap.
I’m glad the Canes do not have CAry Pricey’s contract, I think goalies simply can’t live up to a mega contract. It’s something to do with always being on the spot or with the enemy figuring out your tendencies, but I think a goalie just can’t keep playing at a consistent high level for more than a couple of seasons, they can come back from a regression but they will always be a bit unpredictable.
So why not role with a promising young pair with a cheap price tag.
I know, coming from me that sounds crazy, but it’s a Friday.
Breezy, you sure you feeling okay. ???? LOL. I think both you and surgult make a good point. It could play out in any direction but I am sure Ned and Forsberg are very much a potential. I warmed up on Forsberg. I thought his NHL numbers were not good but he had a horrible D in front of him. Last year our D I am sure had something to do with the average goaltending we received.
There are some that have said the de Haan deal needs to be considered in the context of the Marleau trade. I tend to think that de Haan’s salary was free’d up for our goalies. Marleau’s buyout/cap hit was a sunk cost the day the trade was made.
The conspiracy theorist in me says we did not pay 3.8M for that first draft pick. I do not see a good reason to help a competitor out of a very deep cap jam. I bet the Marleau 1st draft pick was not that expensive. I bet w3 got some money back. We had to have known he wanted the buy out. I will never know.
I agree with the logic here and think Mrazek is still the leading candidate to return in a 1a role with Ned getting a shot at a larger number of NHL starts. Having said that, I think I would talk to Lehner and might go in that direction if the term was the same (3-yrs max) and the difference in dollars was reasonable. I think think his calmness is what’s needed as you get deeper into the playoffs.
I love Mrazek’s passion – the “Poke check” victory in FLA and post-win celebration is really what set the emotional stage for the late-season push – and think he had great chemistry with the group. I’m just on the fence about whether he can take us to the promised land.
If we don’t land either of them, it becomes a much larger crap-shoot.
I agree, I don’t see the connection between the two.
Yes, we were paying 5 D men top 4 salary, but we were not paying any one D man superstar salary (Eric Carlson is making as much as Pesce and Slaven combined, I think a tad bit more).
I think trading someone of Da Hahn’s quality and reliability with that price tag away may well turned out to be a mistake as the inflation continues to run rampant around the league, and I am sure that the Leafs ponied up the money to pay Marleau’s bonuses, otherwise the Canes wouldn’t have done it (and if they did, it was a shrude move).
I wouldn’t be surprised if our D budget will be in the bottom 10 come opening day (assuming we don’t make further upgrades and resign Forsling for 1.5 mill).
Now Justin Faulk is in a better position knowing that he is one of the top 4 D and not resigning him requires the team to develop or obtain a top 4 D on the open market, and I would be surprised if we found one for 4.5 mill next year.
But that’s another debate for another topic, one already rehashed. 😉
Matt – you wrote “the two sides have temporarily parted ways negotiation-wise”, but two days ago in his press conference Waddell they are having daily conversations with Mrazek and/or his agent. These might well be check-in type calls as in “do you have a deal yet” but they speak to a mutual interest. I really don’t see us swinging for most of the others but I have to think Waddell has a backup plan and has already had conversation with one or more options other than Mrazek. Mrazek is going to have to come to his conclusion sooner rather than later – I am sure there has to be a mutually agreed timeframe for when this decision gets made.
Custance with The Athletic talks about the Canes having an interest in Varlamov and makes the same statement that there are more goalies than spots – a buyers’ market that works to our advantage.
https://theathletic.com/1052516/2019/06/28/free-agency-countdown-latest-on-the-goalie-market-matt-duchene-and-more-as-everything-is-heating-up/
The Rangers are reportedly going to pay Trouba 8 mill, you could have Da Hahn, TVR and a third pairing guy for that amount, and Trouba is good but not a star.
Interesting tidbit from the Leafs blogger:
https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Mike-Augello/Kapanen–Johnsson-extended-is-bridging-Marner-a-potential-compromise/120/100250
After the July 1st bonus the actual cost of Nylander for next season is $700,000. That is cheap and the Canes have the cap flexibility.
I wonder if there’s any way the Canes and Leafs secretly made a deal to make something happen as a “thank you” for the Marleau trade.
If they did, that would be Canes management brilliance.
Kapanen and Johnson were both re-signed on 3.5 mill ish deals for 3 and 4 years respectively, and the Canes pretty much made that possible.
In other Canes news:
* (expected, good) Canes have re-signed Ned to a 2-year deal (first year 2-way, second year one-way worth $750,000).
* (bad) Canes have parted ways with Mike Vellucci.
http://gocheckers.com/articles/features/mike-vellucci-and-canes-part-ways
I find the second piece of news very dissatisfying as more and more quality coaching and support staff is leaving the Canes organization. We can speculae on the reasons why, but then again we all have and have come to differing conclusions. One thing that is pretty certain; Vellucci will be sorely missed.
The Canes have 2 new openings. Mike Vellucci and Tony McDonald. One an expert in player development and the other in scouting. McDonald, head of scouting is retiring. Vellucci has been recruited to go elsewhere. I’m betting he will be near the top of the executive food chain in Seattle. His resume is incredible. Both will be hard to replace, and both will be missed.
I am a huge Vellucci fan – and I like the idea you posit of him ending up with the Seattle organization. He is a winner – he is a winner wherever he goes. 15 years as a head coach – 15 years in the playoffs. He instilled the winning culture in CLT, sorely lacking before him, and he focussed on individual player development at the same time.
He took the opening in Scranton and reconnects with JR. Lateral move for now, but one has to think Sully may have a short leash in PIT, whether designed or not.
I hope Vellucci lands a NHL gig, but I kind of doubt it for this year. While Vellucci has done a great job in Charlotte, he has been a career Karmanos employee. Most of it as a junior coach and GM. A lot of NHL assistant jobs get filled by guys who have played or coached with with the head coach in the past. Vellucci is short on that kind of experience being a junior coach for so long. I think he’ll get a NHL gig at some point, but he may end up coaching another AHL team before he does.
A lot of the goalie decisions will happen after Bob signs. Right now that looks like either Fla or the Isles. All the rest of these guys have plenty of risk but Lehner is a Step Above. Not sure why the Slugs gave up on him.
Smith actually finished the year well for the Flames and most writers put their 1st round loss on the rest of the team. So a one year deal for him(or Talbot) as insurance for 2 our young guys makes sense.
I’ve talked about getting J. Quick from the Kings a bunch and still think he is worth the risk. He has a cap of 5.8 for 4 years but is actually owed much less.
I’ll continue to root for Petr and wait a few days to see how this shakes out.