With only one game remaining in the 2018-19 season and the draft weekend frenzy quickly approaching, today’s Daily Cup of Joe is part 1 of how ??? for building the 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes.
Part 1 considers the 2018-19 season as a starting point.
Massive gains made in transforming the culture and attitude
When Rod Brind’Amour was hired, there were questions about his lack of head coaching experience and his readiness, but arguably the greatest potential upside was the potential for him to transform a culture that had become steeped in losing. Whenever the team pushed up close to the playoffs, it seemed to trigger an immediate bounce back. And they team just seemed to always find new ways to be close but not good enough.
The single biggest gain made during the 2018-19 season was pushing over the hump and into the playoffs such that a young group could learn how it felt, what it took and what was required to achieve that. There are no guarantees going forward, but the young group now knows the commitment level and attitude that it takes to be successful in the NHL.
Driving that change was a change in leadership and personnel. The 2018-19 roster featured a huge overhaul in terms of personnel and maybe most significantly a new captain in Justin Williams. As of right now, Williams is still an unknown for next season, but his stamp has already been placed on the franchise and roster. Combined with the influx of new players, the team really did have a different vibe and attitude last season.
Though I do believe that the intangibles noted above were most significant, proving that this roster and Brind’Amour’s style could win were also significant gains. Proving that it is possible reinforces player buy in and makes it clear that the current processes and roster are capable of a playoff berth if not more.
So put more succinctly, massive ground was covered with the playoff berth and even success in the playoffs.
Realistic assessment without playoff glory recency bias
But surprise surprise, this first installment is not about heaping layer upon layer of praise upon the 2018-19 successes. Rather, the focus of this article is to offer a more balanced and realistic assessment of where this team is entering the off-season.
I think the potential is there to too much rest on the laurels of 2018-19 success.
The 2018-19 team did catch a couple favorable bounces.
Aside from missing Jordan Staal for an extended period of time, which is significant, the team was generally healthy. The team had nine players play all 82 games and another play 81 games. A couple others missed only a handful of games mostly due to being scratched.
After a dicey start and a couple weeks with three goalies on the roster, the goalie situation magically rounded into form and was a consistent strength. The improbable combination of waiver wire claim Curtis McElhinney and prove it contract goalie Petr Mrazek just kept getting better and better as the season wore on. The middle part of the season saw McElhinney provide a calming presence, and the latter part saw Mrazek play lights out down the stretch.
But even with a couple huge positives that have some element of luck involved, the regular season was a mixed bag. The team very nearly played its way out of playoff contention by the midway point before righting the ship. Special teams play was up and down all season. And the team had intermittent fits of scoring struggles.
And when the dust settled on the regular season, the positive was that the team posted a solid 99 points and did push into the playoffs. But the fact that the margin for error was tiny down the stretch and that the ultimate gap was only a handful of points should not be lost.
Netting it out
So though 2018-19 was a positive step forward, I do not see bringing back the same team as a sure thing for a return to the playoffs. I think the deep playoff run makes the gap between the Hurricanes and non-playoff teams seem much larger than the reality of the regular season.
I think this off-season needs to strike a delicate balance between maintaining the chemistry and attitude in the locker room, but at the same time trying to take another step or two to improve.
The burning question is whether it is possible to improve significantly just from young players continuing to grow and also with help from the young guns in Charlotte.
The biggest wild card will again be goaltending. Alex Nedeljkovic looks ready for an NHL audition, but there are no guarantees with a rookie goalie. Between Mrazek and McElhinney, which, if either, will return? Where do we figure the 2018-19 team would have finished with sub-par goaltending?
What say you Canes fans?
1) To what degree do you go with what won in 2018-19 versus trying to make improvements during the off-season?
2) Do you think this team gets better just from knowing what it takes and the young players being another year older?
3) In a couple sentences or short paragraph, how would you assess where this team enters the off-season?
Go Canes!
1) Every organization should have a strategic plan. It should include both short-term and long-range goals. At the highest (and most unrealistic) level every organization wants to finish on top every year. So the answer depends on the plan. I would argue that the 19-20 season should continue to build toward the 21-22 season. If you think about the organization, it is obvious that the most likely time for a Stanley Cup is when the current stars (Aho, Teravainen, Pesce, Slavin) are in their prime and the budding stars (Svechnikov, Necas and perhaps Bean and Nedeljkovic) are major contributors. Those two components of success will coincide in two more years. So the short-term plan can include making changes as long as those changes don’t involve so much salary or playing time that budding stars have their development stunted.
That is a long way of saying I would advise adding at most one player from outside the organization. Necas and Bean need to be on the opening roster and one forward spot needs to be truly open to any of Saarela/Kuokkanen/Loustarinen/Geekie/Roy who earns it.
2) Yes–at least better in the strategic plan sense. They might not get 99 points again next season, but that should not be the only goal.
3) See above. Two final thoughts.
Having the Checkers win the Calder Cup should really help this organization. In fact, RBA’s comments about it interfering with off-ice training should concern Canes fans. The most pertinent evidence from both the Canes (Aho and Teravainen were playing hockey much later than most other teammates) and previous years’ Calder Cup winners (Andreas Johnsson this season and Josh Anderson in 16-17) indicate that players who stay on the ice longer do better than their counterparts who had an extra month of off-ice training.
Leadership is an over-emphasized concept in our society. The Canes are a perfect example. RBA was the coach and Williams the captain in December when the Canes had one of the worst records in the league. The Canes would have qualified for the playoffs in 17-18 using Cam Ward’s results–the problem was Darling’s win/loss record not the co-captains. I consider it “proof” that leadership is overstated because Darling (and the team in front of him) did not perform any better with Williams as captain. In fact, Charlotte was not successful in front of Darling. Had RBA and Williams made the playoffs in front of Darling that would have been leadership. Much more important to this year’s success was McElhinney/Mrazek and the mid-season addition of Niedereitter.
I missed RBA’s comments about how winning an AHL title interferes with off-ice training. Do you have a link?
I largely concur with your thoughts – both on leadership and internal development of critical players.
I believe they are in Part 3 of the Canes Country interview with RBA….
Thanks – I found it.
Did he seriously ask the question, “I’m thinking, as a young guy, is [playing into June and winning a championship] good?”?
I would take the context from that other site with a grain of salt. They want to be viewed as true reporters, but ask lollipop questions and tend to not like differing opinions — easily seen in comments below the article.
I’m sure Rod is thrilled CLT has a winning culture to pick from, but also knows the underlying result from winning (which means less time in the gym for our blue chips).
Can leadership be overrated? Sure. But that’s not what I took from players comments all year long. Darling letting in soft goals and flopping on the ice every game would take the steam out of any team, good captains/coaches or not.
Removing Darling from the equation was the beginning of proof the culture change would no longer allow mediocrity. Inserting Mac and giving him more games than Mrazek for a time being was further proof. And with newly supportive owner in tow, I would think RBA and Williams put a stamp on this team by allowing 3+ rookies key ice time, which motivated everyone to bring it or be gone.
We can question leadership and say it’s overrated, just not sure the locker room feels that way.
Excellent comment ctcaniac.
1. I think the team needs to assess and maximize its internal potential, which means getting fairly light help from outside the organization and giving the young guys a chance to get used to NHL hockey. The ultimate goal is to win the ultimate price, not to make the playoffs 5 years in a row. This might mean a slight step backwards next year. But the good old Bruins, as much as I am not fan of their playing on the edge (sometimes over the edge) style of hockey are the example of where the Canes could be in a year or two. The difference is that they have more experience and scoring up front, a lot of it developed from within, and they rely on strong D and good goaltending. We could have all that.
2. There’s a strong potential for players like Fogele and Svech to take another step and a good chance that guys like Necas, Bean, and to a lesser extent Geekie and Poturolski are ready to come through and be difference makers next season. But there is also a chance that other players regress. Faulk had a good year (better than many expected), If JW resigns he should be able to play fewer minutes, because age catches up with us all, even the best of us, the goalie situation is up in the air and I think this year we received some luck in G (and we were due some), but I cannot rely on that, even if we resign the same duo (though I hope we can). And there is the dreaded sophomore slump.
We have to up our powerplay significantly to have a chance. Also keep in mind that our division might be even tougher next year. With an influx of top 2 draft picks and teams like the Devils and Flyers under performing significantly based on where most people thought they would be and every bit ready to return to glory. I am hoping that age and salary cap situation catches up with Pit and the Caps, and that Columbus won’t be able to retain the top talent they loaded up on this year.
3. I think this team has the character, the hunger and the condition to form the core of an elite team, but it needs continued good goaltending, better powerplay and an upgrade at scoring and playmaking to take it to the next level.
1. In the words of RBA, the team has to “get better”. I am not going to wave the flag of culture change as the defining characteristic.
The change in culture only developed when the team started to win in January.
The team was a sight to behold once it started winning and believing it could win on any given night. ANd it is important to retain that core that developed that belief. But it is not enough.
2. In the words of RBA, the team maxed out last year. As you said the margin for error reaching the playoffs was thin. Some of it was the Jekyll/Hyde nature of the team (Nov/Dec vs. Jan-Apr).
It is unrealistic to assume we can put the same team on ice next season and get the same results. If you are looking for improvement on the individual player, probably only Svech has consideable upside. And given how much the team played “up” beyond expectation, one has to expect regression for some.
Certainly the PP is not going to improve on it’s own. And while M&M were solid, we can still be better in the goal.
And we need more scoring – to put it in terms of our CLT prospect, we need to rely on more skill (Necas and Geekie) than grit-and-grind (Brown and Roy) if we are going to use our internal resources for improvement.
3. In looking at the off-season, hard decisions have to be made. You can’t have your cake and eat it too – can we really afford what Faulk is going to want in his next contract? Is there a role for a high-skill player (Necas) who doesn’t already have RBA’s confidence (Aho and Turbo)?
Right there, well said! This is also why I feel the team will be actively pursuing one forward, one defenseman and one goalie from outside the organization, while at the same time promoting 1 or 2 CLT players who fit the system and need.
Having subscribed to AHL TV for their playoff package (best $29 I ever spent), I’ve seen most of the Checkers successful Calder Cup run. There are 3 or 4 players there who could/should step onto the 2019-20 Hurricanes. Slots will need to be left open for them to get their shot to make the team. Two others, Jurco and Poturalski, are ready, but are UFAs and would need to be signed on the open market this summer. Managing total number of contracts will be key to building next season’s team.
We, or any other team, could actually sign Jurco any time. He is with the Checkers on an AHL contract.
As a UFA C6, Poturalsky (now 25yo) has to be looking for a better path to get to NHL ice. As an AHL All-Star and the Calder Cup MVP he has credentials to make the case that he should be given a legitimate shot. I don’t think he is going to see that opportunity here, to be honest.
And I agree that $29 AHLTV playoff package was money well spent.
I would agree with Roddy that we should go with the same crew as last year. As soon as we start to tinker with changing faces, the team culture, as well as the chemistry changes. Many on this site want to believe that this group has maxed itself out. That leadership isn’t important. That we have already seen our best. Anyone who has ever played a team contact sport knows how wrong that thinking is. These guys are just starting to gel. They are just starting to see their own potential. They are just starting to buy into their leadership. The sky is the limit for what they can accomplish. And given the crowd of highly talented players in Charlotte, flush with their own success, everyone on the Canes is (or had better be) highly motivated.
The problems facing Tommy, Roddy, and Donny are two; 1) resisting the temptation to make a trade, 2) having to replace a player or two we lose to free agency.
I hope and pray that our management sticks to their guns and takes the wise course of action.
I can see a really top end forward. Outside of that we need little. We have very good AHL potential future stars coming. I said previously, IMO minimal changes. Anybody leaves, fill from within. The attitude and drive is right, don’t meet it up with massive changes. People forget our guys are young and have potential growing. It’s not putting the same team on the ice, it’s a team that will be more experienced and more hungry, with the same guys. They are only going to get better. They will have even more drive now that they seen what they could accomplish.
I believe our off-season moves will pivot on whether JW returns. Yes, he had solid numbers and gave all he had. But can he really be expected to duplicate that next season? A back-up plan should be in place to fill his void in the event he retires. I hope he comes back but the expectation should be a slightly reduced role; it would be prudent to take some of the pressure off JW by adding another solid blue-chip veteran that can play in a top-six role, preferably a right-handed player that can take face-offs (Jeff Carter, Kyle Turris, Tyler Bozak, etc.).
Also, if we don’t re-sign Ferland, then we better have a plan for a replacement. It’s easy to forget the stark contrast between this past season and the immediately-prior season with the amount of opposing player liberties that were taken. Especially with our young players it is vital that we provide “insurance” to protect them.
Ned is ready for the NHL; signing Dustin Tokarski and Tomas Jurco seem like no-brainers to add depth.
I think the Jurco situation is really interesting. He is on an AHL contract – he can be signed by anyone at anytime (no need to wait until 7/1). But he wants NHL ice and he has shown he is a cup above AHL forwards. The team he signs with is going to offer a clearer path to the NHL than the Canes can offer. The same, as I have said, holds true for Poturalski.
Annually the Checkers pick up a veteran goaltender as backup. The past couple of years have been rentals from other organizations (McCallum and Tokarski). For a veteran AHLer, Tick played the best hockey of his career – by a longshot – once he joined the Checkers. But the Tokarski numbers before that were pretty average – i.e., he is easily replaceable in the AHL pool.
I think you are right – we do pick up a mid-6 veteran forward, regardless of JW’s plans (and I think he will back for one more season). But he will be one year older and age is clearly catching up to him.
According to Hockeybuzz he highest quality under the radar UFA forwards this summer are Joonas Donskoi
and Ryan Dzingel, both wingers, both deceptively good scroing but not flashy.
The Canes might do well to pick up one of these two if the price is right.
Well. I went to a hockey site and an intellectual discussion broke out. Great job all contributors.
My opinions are a blend of the spectrum expressed here, or in other words, all things emphasized are important. The only “false dichotomy” is to think that only one thing is important and the other is not.
Players and leadership are both important. Toughness and skill are both important.
Players are not good or bad intrinsically, but some players may be playing well while others are playing bad. Some players are injured and others are not. Some players may be taking care of themselves while others are not. Some players may be improving while others are not.
Players may play well in one situation but not in another. See Nino.
In a complex multi-variable world, many things (including strategy and timing) have to be considered.
That is what makes this all so fun and captivating. There is a very large collection of small things that a team must get right to be a champion. And amongst these posts, a large collection of the most important things were articulated very well.
PS I loved RBA’s comment about the Checkers success taking away from their time in the gym. His message was clear: Ahem gentlemen, don’t spend your summer partying and celebrating. Get to work, you have to double down to extend your success.